Projected 2018 Brewers' Starting Lineup

[Thundercat32]

I'm not the best person to post this, since I haven't followed the Brewers' prospects closely this season. I didn't see another thread about this topic, and I am somewhat familiar with the pipeline. Please feel free to make corrections, though.

 

This is what I'm seeing so far:

 

Left Field

Trent Clark - they say he has the speed & skill to play center, but not the arm strength; nor the arm strength to play right

 

Center Field

Lewis Brinson - 5 tools potential stud, potential bust with more developing to do (Maybe more of a midseason callup addition or 2019 ETA)

Corey Ray - If Brinson is a miss, they say he has the speed, skills, and arm strength to play center

Brett Phillips - Seems like a better fit in right, but has spent some time in center

 

Right Field

Corey Ray

Brett Phillips

Domingo Santana - Spent all of his time this year in RF, though his defensive skills may push him to 1b or off the roster all together

 

3rd Base

Jonathan Villar - Kind of a hole here. I think the hope is Lucas Erceg takes over, but 2018 maybe too soon, and Erceg is still an unproven prospect

Hernan Perez - Will he still be here? Who knows, but for now he is & he's a usable utility man

 

Shortstop

Orlando Arcia - Probably the most "sure thing" in this projected lineup

 

2nd Base

Isan Diaz - Similar to Erceg, 2018 might be too early for him, but his defense projects for 2b, and his bat may force the Brewers to promote him this quickly

Scooter Gennett - Proven solid platoon bat

 

1st Base

??? Big time question mark. Thankfully the position is the least defensively demanding on the field, so the Brewers can try a host of guys here. Domingo Santana, Jacob Nottingham, Jacob Gatewood, and the list goes on... If Braun is still here, then he'd be a candidate for 1b, as well.

 

Catcher

Pretty much a void at the moment. Andrew Susac, anyone? Maybe as a backup. Let's just hope someone else emerges by then

 

Rotation

Zach Davies

Jimmy Nelson

Wily Peralta

Josh Hader

Luis Ortiz

Jorge Lopez

 

Possibly Phil Bickford, Cody Ponce, Marcos Diplan, Devin Williams, Nathan Kirby and/or Kodi Medeiros could be mid-season additions to the rotation.

 

I don't feel great about the rotation for the 2018 season. I'm the highest on Davies. He'd be more of a #3 functioning as a #1 because the Brewers don't really have a #1 guy in the pipeline. Ortiz might be a solid #2 in time, though. Maybe Hader has #1 type stuff, but bullpen-type command. It was kinda hard to project him for the rotation actually. Nelson & Peralta (maybe Chase Anderson too) are just placeholders, in my opinion. Well, at least, hopefully that's all they are, so we can avoid overpaying for their free agent years because we feel good enough about the guys behind them, the list of Bickford, Ponce, Diplan, etc. Overall, it seems like the rotation is shaping up as a strong group of #3/#4 type starters and the strength will come in the depth, and hopefully with plus defense in the outfield and up the middle at SS & 2b, it will help boost the rotation's success.

 

Bullpen

Tyler Thornburg

Brandon Woodruff

 

Bullpens are usually a year-to-year proposition, anyways, so it's hard to project out 2 seasons down the line. Not sure anyone outside of Tyler Thornburg can really be projected for a bullpen role.

 

 

I see the 2018 season being the start of the Brewers' turnaround. By 2020, the young staff will have some experience, the young hitters will as well, and hopefully it'll all gel & come together.

[JohnBriggs12]

I see the 2018 rotation as:

 

Davies

Hader

Guerra

Woodruff

Wilkerson/Wang

 

Waiting in the wings will be Ortiz, Bickford, and a host of others.

[pogokat]

I see the 2017 outfield as Braun/Broxton/Santana---unless Braun is moved to 1st base bc of a Carter trade, then perez will be there

 

in 2018, I see Braun/Brinson/Santana---Phillips or Ray could be ready at this point, and I assume they will be there to supplant failure by Brinson/Santana

 

The earliest I think Clark is a possibility is 2019.

 

Braun will be here until the end of his contract, imo

[gregmag]

Thanks for starting this. It's a good way to think about the state of the rebuild.

 

What I love about where we are is that we have great depth at all the key defensive positions save catcher, and even at catcher we have some possibilities.

 

ss: Arcia.

 

2b: If Gennett can hold this year's improvements, he'll be a strong bridge to Diaz. Heck, if Perez can hold this year's improvement, 2b is one of his positions, though I like him as super-utility.

 

3b: This is looking better than six months ago. If Villar is for real, his bat absolutely plays here. Perez is another possibility. Then we have Erceg / Gatewood in the wings. I wish we had someone at the upper levels, but this position isn't the black hole it was.

 

cf: The parade -- Broxton hopefully develops as a decent placeholder, then Brinson, Phillips, Ray, Clark. The beautiful thing about this is that these guys project well enough that we can spread them around and potentially have an all-cf outfield.

 

c: Susac and Pina have a chance to establish themselves. If they don't, we don't have a lot in the pipeline until you get to the low minors: Nottingham (I'm not ready to move him off the position), Feliciano.

 

We have the makings of a strong 2018 rotation, but health and development would have to break really well. The depth chart, looking to 2018, seems to look something like: Nelson, Guerra, Davies, Hader, Wilkerson, Lopez, Woodruff, Wang, Ortiz, Bickford. That's leaving out guys who are hurt now, assuming Peralta and Jungman don't come back, and discounting the possibility that younger guys might climb the ladder ahead of schedule. That's not bad, but I don't feel nearly as confident about the rotation as I do about position players.

[Austin Tatious]

It's funny, I was going to start a similar thread, so thanks for starting it. I was contemplating 2019 to let some of the younger guys cook a bit more, and I was going to suggest batting order too.

 

A few comments. At this point, I am hoping Wily Peralta can be salvaged as a reliever. We have seen no real signs of that ability, but if he changes his mindset and approach toward getting through an inning or two at a time, maybe something can pop there. Jungmann doesn't strike me as having reliever stuff, I am afraid.

 

I am glad we kept our powder dry for some more trades this off-season and next year. We may wish to target some different young pups later on, and I am glad we have some ammo (think: Gennett, Carter, Guerra, Nelson, Thorny).

 

I couldn't be happier with Hernan Perez relative to expectations. He'd be nice to keep in 2018. He can be a super sub at 3b, 2b, Lf, rf, and he can even go in at short for a spell. I gotta think he could play first. He's a solid hitter and competitive. I think he could go .270 15 and 75 (at a minimum) if he got the at bats. He's improving his walk rate although there is more room for improvement. Counsell gave him four things to work on last off-season and he is meeting that.

 

I will come back with my projections in a bit.

[FVBrewerFan]

I realize this exercise is for fun, but it goes to show we just don't know. That's ok, neither do the Brewers. That's why quality depth is so important!

[clancyphile]

c: Nottingham/Susac

1b: Braun

2b: Isan Diaz

ss: Arcia

3b: Erceg

lf: Phillips

cf: Brinson

rf: Ray

 

bench: Nottingham/Susac, Cooper, H. Perez, Orf, Reed, Stokes

rotation: Hader, Ortiz, Suter, Davies, Bickford

bullpen: Magnifico, Jorge Lopez, ??????

[MrTPlush]

I really doubt Trent Clark is ready by 2018. LF should be Corey Ray(will he even be ready), Brinson in center, and in right field Brett Phillips.

[Thundercat32]

Looks like you guys are right about Clark. I got a lot of my information from mlb.com's top 30 organizational prospects list. Looking at it again, it does list Clark as a 2019 ETA candidate. I guess, I was looking at his Class A promotion this year and projecting out AA next year, with some AAA at the end of the season and then a spring training invite in 2018. Which he might not make AAA until 2018, and might be a 2018 September call up instead. But, overall the reason I slotted Clark for LF is because his profile says, "... his fringy arm strength might limit him to left field." None of our other OF prospects have arm strength concerns, so it seems logical the Brewers would slide Clark over to LF. It may take til 2019, but if he develops properly, he sounds like our Left-fielder of the future.

 

The other challenging part of this projection was figuring out service time and what the Brewers might do with players past their arbitration eligibility. I didn't have the time to look it up for my first post, but cot's baseball contracts lists the following:

 

For the 2018 season:

 

Wily Peralta - Arbitration year 3 (though for Peralta, his service time ends after year 3, so he'll be a FA for the 2019 season)

Jimmy Nelson - Arbitration year 1 (Nelson isn't eligible for free agency until the 2021 season)

Tyler Thornburg - Arbitration year 2 (eligible for FA in 2020)

Jonathan Villar - Arbitration year 1 (eligible for FA in 2021)

Hernan Perez - Arbitration year 1 (eligible for FA in 2021)

Andrew Susac - Arbitration year 1 (eligible for FA in 2021)

 

Other notables - Will Middlebrooks A3, Martin Maldonado A4, Chris Carter A4, Chase Anderson A2 (not eligible for FA til 2021), Scooter Gennett A2, Kirk Nieuwenhuis A2

 

 

Thanks for all of the positive feedback guys! Was really trying to map out what the future looks like. After I thought about it some more, I think it's a safe bet some of these holes will be filled with useful veterans i.e. the way Aramis Ramirez gave us a lift. I could see 1b becoming a platoon situation with a guy like Lucas Duda (he'll be free in '18), who rakes vs Righties, and a guy like Sean Rodriguez vs Lefties; or even Chris Carter still. Unless they move Braun to 1b by then, in which case a platoon might make sense somewhere else like at 3b or behind the plate. Catcher is probably the biggest hole right now, but hopefully we can make do with some hidden gem(s) the way the Rays are known to do with light-hitting pitch framers they can rotate in & out on the cheap.

 

I feel like the staff shapes up to be C+ level on talent/stuff, but with the solid defense the Brewers are lining up it could push our rotation to a B/B+; particularly with another pitch framer, like Lucroy was. I'm a little fearful the front office will jump the gun & overpay for a "big name" FA pitcher come 2018/19, or worse yet, use up our prospect depth & trade for one. Really hope that doesn't happen. Feel like this farm system is deep & primed for a late teens/early 20s run. We just have to sit back, be patient, and wait on them to develop.

[Point Beer Is Best]

Are we sure that Braun can even play 1B?

[Roderick]

Looks like you guys are right about Clark. I got a lot of my information from mlb.com's top 30 organizational prospects list. Looking at it again, it does list Clark as a 2019 ETA candidate. I guess, I was looking at his Class A promotion this year and projecting out AA next year, with some AAA at the end of the season and then a spring training invite in 2018.

 

You forgot high A ball. As a high schooler it will be slower up the chain also. I assume Clark would start next year in Appleton and hopefully have some confidence hitting before it is ripped away down in Florida.

[MKE81]

2018 is very difficult to do. Based on the current list of players to choose from, I think you're looking at an OF of Braun, Brinson, Phillips. Santana, Broxton in mix too. IF could be Carter, Villar, Arcia, Perez with Cecchini (1b/3b), Rivera backing up. Susac starting catcher with Maldy backup. Rotation of Nelson, Hader, Davies, Lopez , Ortiz (possibly) or Chase. If Santana, Brinson, Phillips are all performing well then Braun is moved to 1b if still on team.

 

2019 I think you're looking at Braun, Brinson, Phillips with Santana and Ray in mix (see above regarding Braun). IF of Nottingham, Diaz, Arcia, Villar (will be traded before or during this year). Erceg maybe up at some point this year. Susac/Maldy. Rotation (in no specific order) a mix of Davies, Hader, Ortiz, Bickford, Mendez (if PTBNL), Lopez, Woodruff, Wang (F. Peralta a year away). Bullpen of Knebel, Barnes, Magnifico, Kodi, Ponce, Diplan, Kirby (possibly Houser/Nolin depending how they come back from injury).

 

I think by the end of 2018 (and certainly by end of 2019) you're looking at Scooter, Carter, Thornburg, Guerra, Perez, Chase, Nelson, Villar being traded with some being traded by the end of next year.

[homer]

I love these exercises for no other reason than it means you've got a great farm system. We haven't done one of these since Angel Salome was in AA.

[Austin Tatious]

How is this for a June 2019 batting order, for kicks and giggles:

 

LF Clark

RF Ray

cf Brinson

c Schwarz (high draft pick at catcher in 2017 draft)

1b not in system yet or maybe Gatewood

3b Erceg

2b Isan Diaz

ss Arcia

 

rotation Ortiz, Hader, Davies, Bickford, Woodruff

bullpen Ponce, F Peralta, Lopez, Diplan, Medieros, Kirby, Magnifico

 

utility, Hernan Perez

bench If: one of J Betancourt, Rijo, Y. Rivera

bench OF: Brett Phillips

bench C: Susac

[MrTPlush]

These exercises are pretty brutal since there are things we can't account for. For instance Austin got rid of Villar, Braun, Nelson, and Santana. That's a fine prediction except we can't account for what they will bring back and that is likely a ton of value.

 

Someone should make a bunch of imaginary trades, sign some free agents, and trade for some players. That would be pretty cool and something to dream on.

[Austin Tatious]

Yes, there are too many unknowns with acquisitions but also with player development. But it's fun to look at our farm system and dream up a scenario.

 

I forgot about Taylor Williams. I've pegged him as a possible closer if he comes back well from his injury.

[Thundercat32]

I see a lot of folks slotting Woodruff into future rotations. It's not crazy, but his mlb.com prospect profile says, "The Brewers believe he'll be able to refine his command enough to remain a starter. If not, Woodruff has the stuff & strong ground-ball rates to get outs coming out of the bullpen."

 

Woodruff's velo dropped from 97 mph in college to low 90s now. He doesn't have one outstanding pitch. He has two project-able major league average pitches. Strikeout rates mean very little in the minor leagues (they're only noteworthy, if they're not there). So, I don't see a guy who's a safe bet for the rotation. I see a guy who is a fringe back end of the rotation, long relief arm. At least that's how his profile reads to me.

 

Those in the Woodruff's a potential starter camp, any other reasons why you feel he's on that curve?

[Mass Haas]

Woodruff's velo dropped from 97 mph in college to low 90s now.

 

Nearly every report we've read this season indicates Woodruff's velocity is still 95-97.

[Thundercat32]

Woodruff's velo dropped from 97 mph in college to low 90s now.

 

Nearly every report we've read this season indicates Woodruff's velocity is still 95-97.

 

That makes sense. I haven't done as much research on him. Still has to reign in the command or otherwise it won't matter if he throws 107. Lol

[ZBTMP]

That makes sense. I haven't done as much research on him. Still has to reign in the command or otherwise it won't matter if he throws 107. Lol

 

Not sure if you mean hitting his spots or limiting walks, but for the latter he has walked 1.23 BB/9 since start of July. Over his last 13 starts in high A he walked 2.06. MLB average is over 3 and he hasn't been at that since rookie ball.

 

While every prospect could sharpen their command, Woodruff hasnt been bitten by walks too often.

[Tbadder]

These early lists really do point out how tough it is to build a rotation--possibilities galore in the infield/outfield, but that rotation is so far behind in terms of depth. I expect Guerra to be moved, possibly Nelson as well. I have no faith in a Peralta/Jungmann turn around. Nothing really has changed in a way for the Crew--they're still paddling upstream when it comes to developing starting pitchers. Maybe Stearns greatest achievement will be changing our sad long term culture concerning this issue.

[Thundercat32]

That makes sense. I haven't done as much research on him. Still has to reign in the command or otherwise it won't matter if he throws 107. Lol

 

Not sure if you mean hitting his spots or limiting walks, but for the latter he has walked 1.23 BB/9 since start of July. Over his last 13 starts in high A he walked 2.06. MLB average is over 3 and he hasn't been at that since rookie ball.

 

While every prospect could sharpen their command, Woodruff hasnt been bitten by walks too often.

 

I don't mean anything by it myself. I was just quoting his mlb.com prospect profile; they mentioned his command.

 

Walk rates, and especially K rates, in the minor leagues don't say a lot. They're only revealing when they're negative. That 3-2 backdoor slider Woodruff is throwing 2-3 inches off the plate for strike 3 right now, will be ball 4 when he's a rookie with the Brew Crew.

 

So, I'm inclined to believe a scouting service if they say he has a command concern (which granted what minor league pitcher can't improve their command?). Still, I trust the scouts over the minor league #s b/c the minor league umps are down there for a reason & the big leagues play different. Like Woodruff is facing Kris Bryant 3 years from now when he's coming fresh off an MVP season. Bryant's "strike" zone will be vastly different from what Woodruff is use to seeing now.