Orlando Arcia called up

[brewcrewdue80]

Adding to that Addison Russell comp. BRef has him at 3WAR in 106games. Honestly, I think Arcia is on the ability to outperform what Russell has produced. Less HRs, but higher BA and equal Slg due to it. .732OPS, with his Defensive skills(like Russell was Lauded about) and you're staring at 3-4WAR for a SS. Arcia had a SB today something that he'll certainly outproduce Russell in. That may actually mean he'll outproduce Russell in WAR and be a 4-5 type. Yearly.

 

To the Escobar comps. Pssh. Wrong. I believe you're looking at that comp in regards to coming through the Brewers system and being a highly regarded Defensive SS. But 5HRs has been the highest in all of Escobar's seasons. Arcia presents a higher HR ability. Better BB/K ratio More often of the good, less often of the bad. So OB and Slg are already higher than Alcides. BA may be same/similar.

Oh, and something else to consider. Escobar's ranking came in a time when SS weren't being produced. They were terrible. Arcia fwiw is the rated the 5th best SS while being ranked 11th on MLB overall! Who knows why SS has emerged as it'd appear to be the deepest position player suddenly being produced in baseball, but the Brewers have one that will keep them on point with much of the rest of the League.

 

Is he going to be a Super MegaStar? Probably not. Maybe he can become an Ozzie Smith type who's credited with 76.5WAR on BRef as a .666OPS batter.

All that matters the most to me is the fact that the Brewers will have a Plus defender at SS. Gold Glove type. He's already had me drop jawed saying wow with some plays he had defensively in the Minors. He can be all the average SS bat he wants, there is gate worthy defense forthcoming and here today. There are 7others on the team can be gate worthy offensively. Defensively, like Gomez was in 2013, steal the show young man!

[TooLiveBrew]

I know he didn't get the out, but the play Arcia made last night going up the middle, whirling, & throwing to first was incredible. I went back & re-watched that about a half dozen times. Unreal athletic ability & arm strength+accuracy!

[SomewhereInTime]

I'm really not happy about this. Why start his clock now? He is leaving plenty to be desired at AAA.

 

This feels like a move to appease casual fans after trading Lucroy.

 

I agree 100000000% and I would bet a lot that is why they are doing it. Short sighted move that makes little sense for the long term. He is doing OK at a hitter paradise in AAA.

 

Hope he can come up and hit well since someone is going to lose a starting spot(Perez?). Really a shame I just don't see the rush to promote him.

 

And now a few weeks in he's batting .170 and showing no power. There was no need to rush him up this year.

[pacopete4]

JJ Hardy batted .180 his first 60 games (130 PA's) in the pros. Hardy and Arcia have very similar statistics in the minors. I'm sure Arcia will be just fine. Gotta work the rough edges out at some point. Might as well be at the end of a nothing season.

[MrTPlush]

JJ Hardy batted .180 his first 60 games (130 PA's) in the pros. Hardy and Arcia have very similar statistics in the minors. I'm sure Arcia will be just fine. Gotta work the rough edges out at some point. Might as well be at the end of a nothing season.

 

Yah except JJ Hardy was actually hitting decently in the minors when we called him up. Arcia on the other hand was having a pretty bad season considering he was in a hitters paradise.

[sveumrules]

& Jungmann was pitching terribly last year in the minors before he was called up & ran off a 2.42 ERA in his first 16 MLB starts.

 

There is far more that goes into a player's readiness than their stats before & after being called up.

 

Mike Trout hit a very Arcia-like 157/214/314 in his first 56 plate appearances. Imagine what could have been were he not rushed to MLB before he was ready.

[MrTPlush]

Performance wise I am not really concerned. So many hitters start out slow. Of course I would like to see some improvement in September or I might consider sending him back to AAA next season. On the bright side he has shown patience, drawn some walks, and not struck out at a high rate. If those things weren't happening I'd be a bit more concerned.

[SomewhereInTime]

I know, there's been a lot of prospects that struggle at the very beginning of their big league careers. I just don't think it was necessary to start his clock now. It's not like he had earned it by hitting well in AAA.

[umphrey]

I don't see Arcia as a superstar with the bat. The Alcides Escobar comp is a good one I think and it's not just a Brewers thing.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/projecting-orlando-arcia/

[Ennder]

JJ Hardy batted .180 his first 60 games (130 PA's) in the pros. Hardy and Arcia have very similar statistics in the minors. I'm sure Arcia will be just fine. Gotta work the rough edges out at some point. Might as well be at the end of a nothing season.

 

Yah except JJ Hardy was actually hitting decently in the minors when we called him up. Arcia on the other hand was having a pretty bad season considering he was in a hitters paradise.

 

 

Hardy, Fielder and Weeks were all brought up at least half a season too early to try to get fans in the seats. They are not a good example to follow.

[BrewCrewForever]

Not surprised Arcia has started slow with the bat, Alex Bregman doing the same in Houston. Just takes time.

[logan82]

JJ missed most of the season before being called up so no, he probably should not have been brought up when he was.

[FVBrewerFan]

Arcia is a good reminder that this rebuild will most likely take longer than people want and expect. So is Santana, look at the great season he had last year in AAA and the end of the year in Milwaukee.

 

This is not a fantasy league where you plug a new player in, boom he hits .775 OPS. There are injuries, there is time to adjust to MLB, and some top prospects won't make it, or last long If they do. Very simply, the Brewers don't have any "can't miss" prospects like a Braun.

 

I believe Arcia will eventually be an average MLB SS offensively, and superior defensively. But that may take a while, and yes there's a chance it will never happen.

[brewerfan82]

Hardy, Fielder and Weeks were all brought up at least half a season too early to try to get fans in the seats. They are not a good example to follow.

I don't recall having any problem with the timing in their callups. Is your issue that they weren't at their peak performance yet and therefore we maybe lost out on an extra year of more productive service at the MLB level? Just curious.

 

I know we're not expected to compete next year, but just from a development standpoint, I personally like that he's getting an extended look in the bigs this year before next season. I think most players have an adjustment period when they hit the majors and even with some struggles it can help a player's confidence and comfort level going into a fresh season knowing they've been there before. I also don't think we need to hold off on bringing guys up just because we're not going to be competitive yet. We need some guys to prove themselves and become leaders before we take that turn. The younger guys today like Villar, Arcia, Nelson, and Davies, even potential role players in Broxton and Perez, need to be through any growing pains and show they can be established, steady pieces and veteran presences when we do become competitive again to compliment the even younger talent still to come and they can't do that being stashed in the minors.

 

Management's gotta trust they understand each individual player and I think they see Arcia as confident enough in himself that they can throw him into the fire a bit this year without hurting his development.

[jerichoholicninja]

The thing is that Arcia isn't a great hitter and probably never will be. He was a hyped prospect for his defense and one great season in AA. Outside of Biloxi, he hasn't OPS'd over .738 in the states. I suppose you could play the "he's always been young for his level" card but I don't think you'll get much more than a .320/.400 line out of him in the bigs at his peak. As long as he keeps playing the great defense we've seen so far and he hits near the bottom of the order instead of the 2 hole he'll do at SS until he hits free agency.

[MKE81]

JJ Hardy batted .180 his first 60 games (130 PA's) in the pros. Hardy and Arcia have very similar statistics in the minors. I'm sure Arcia will be just fine. Gotta work the rough edges out at some point. Might as well be at the end of a nothing season.

 

Yah except JJ Hardy was actually hitting decently in the minors when we called him up. Arcia on the other hand was having a pretty bad season considering he was in a hitters paradise.

 

He was hitting 265/324/766, 10 doubles, 1 triple, 2HR, 18rbi, 4SB in the month of July. He wasn't exactly struggling when called up. Outside of a down June, he's been 281/324/739, 14 doubles, 4 triples, 6HR, 41rbi, 12SB in 288AB the other 3 months of the year so how is that "bad"? I don't care if he's in CO because HE'S 21 and has NEVER been known for his bat to begin with. He's still performing just fine with the bat given he's 5.5 years below his competition level. It will take him a couple years to really get comfortable while he continues to grow into his body adding strength with his body filling out. I see a player that's very realistic to be a 280/340/750 guy while playing GG defense at the most critical spot. His oppo approach is already strong, which is a huge benefit for him and his age. He's up so he can get 2 months worth of MLB games and get adjusted to the level of competition, lifestyle, etc for when he takes over full time next year. It's preparing him and giving him a head start.

 

People can cite his 170/259 numbers with the Brewers but based on how he's swung the bat he could just as easily be 250/328+.

 

Jericho, regarding your "you could play the 'he's always been young for his level' card" comment. He hasn't just been young. He's been 3.5 - 5.5 years young. That's a massive difference.

 

Using average numbers across the board - he's Hardy with less HR power but will hit more doubles, triples, steal many more bases and have a higher BA/OBP with similar or better OPS. He's Simmons but better across the board offensively in literally every category. He's Escobar with more doubles, fewer/similar triples, more HR, steal similar bases and have higher BA/OBP/OPS. He's Crawford over the past 3 years if you average everything out (with fewer HR but many more SBs).

 

What is there not to like? I don't get it.

[TheCrew07]

I've watched Orlando hit quite a bit, and I saw him last Thursday in the sweltering day game.

 

Right now he's doing in MLB what he was doing when he first got to WI, he's trying too hard and being over aggressive. Last Thursday he was way out in front with lower half onto his front foot long before he needed to be, so he's not balanced at all, but he makes up for it by having the best hand/eye coordination I've seen from a hitter in the Brewer organization since Braun. Orlando has the ability to put the bat on bad pitches and put them in play, the kind of pitches that almost all other hitters are going to swing right through. Right that's not serving him well and is leading to quite a bit of weak contact and ground outs on the IF or short pop flies to the OF. When he's staying back and swinging at good pitches that ability is the reason why he barrels up so many balls and has nice potential as a hitter.

 

In his final AB on Thursday he stayed back and was on time so he drilled that sinking liner to CF which was misplayed into a triple. I was pretty happy about that because the only reason we were sticking around (the conditions down the RF line were miserable) was because I wanted to watch him bat one more time. It's neat to remember the young kid who was in WI then and see the young man who is getting his fee wet in the big leagues, and how far he's come. I've seen this over aggressive approach before, he won't strike out much, he'll walk here and there, but he won't start spraying line drives all over the yard again until he lets himself relax and play, it's easy to see. As long as he's out on that front foot he'll struggle, when stays balanced he'll start tagging the ball.

 

He is not Escobar, and I could give 2 hoots about what fangraphs has to say about any prospect, that is not a reputable prospect site as far as I'm concerned, though they've made improvements since they started talking about prospects a few years ago. They are like MLB Pipeline before adding Jim Callis...

 

Escobar was/is a better player defensively and Arcia has a much higher ceiling offensively. I had/have man crushes on both players and I don't see many similarities in their game, they don't have similar body types, they are completely different types of hitters, and while Arcia is very good defensively he doesn't have the arm or range of Escobar. The only similarities are that they are both Latin, both from Venezuela, both skinny (not the same as having a similar body type), and both were Brewer prospects... that's about as superficial as a comparison can be though. I guess one could tag them both as defensive first prospects, but I think that's that a disservice to the truth, I think that's selling Orlando short with the bat.

 

Certainly it's possible Arcia never reaches his ceiling offensively, but at his absolute best Escobar was going to be a low .700s OPS type of guy, I thought if he added some muscle he could maybe be league average, but he never has. I think a .700ish OPS is Arcia's floor as a player, I will be shocked and severely disappointed if he isn't a better hitter than his brother. I'm not talking power, I see him hitting .270-.290 with a good OBP, 10-15 HRs, and 30ish 2B at his peak. Maybe it's true that his attitude has changed and he'll never be that guy, and fading like his older brother has, but I'm skeptical of those reports as I still remember him as the kid who was always smiling and having fun around the park.

 

*****

 

As for Hardy, he had the injury and the Brewers brought him up basically straight from AA after missing a year, that was tough, there were plenty of calls to DFA Hardy during the first half of the season that year as well. Fielder wasn't rushed though Weeks was, but they were brought up because they were both mashing in AAA, Fielder went back down after interleague play though, he came up for good the following year and started the season with the Brewers after the Overbay trade. Fielder did start the season 0-fer, and I remember the fans at Miller Park giving him a nice hand of encouragement near the of that rough start, if only fans were willing to be so patient now.

 

I would agree that the Brewers defensive development focus was lacking at that time and the majority of that first wave come up with serious defensive issues. Fielder had around 2000 PAs as a minor legauer, Weeks right around 900, Hardy around 1300, Hart (3 defensive positions) 2600+, Braun just short of 900, and Lucroy around 1500. Lucroy made significant defensive improvements, Hardy was a natural, the rest were pretty poor. That's why I say that if posters want a player's bat to carry him through the minors and be aggressively promoted then they need to be willing to push the player farther down the defensive spectrum. How much improvement is a player really going to make in basically 2 full MiLB seasons like Braun and Weeks had?

[FVBrewerFan]

I've watched Orlando hit quite a bit, and I saw him last Thursday in the sweltering day game.

 

Right now he's doing in MLB what he was doing when he first got to WI, he's trying too hard and being over aggressive. Last Thursday he was way out in front with lower half onto his front foot long before he needed to be, so he's not balanced at all, but he makes up for it by having the best hand/eye coordination I've seen from a hitter in the Brewer organization since Braun. Orlando has the ability to put the bat on bad pitches and put them in play, the kind of pitches that almost all other hitters are going to swing right through. Right that's not serving him well and is leading to quite a bit of weak contact and ground outs on the IF or short pop flies to the OF. When he's staying back and swinging at good pitches that ability is the reason why he barrels up so many balls and has nice potential as a hitter.

 

 

I don't see him out on his front foot too early consistently. He's no different than any other hitter, when he's guessing fastball he's early. Biggest issue is laying off pitches out of the zone. Sliders down and away, fastballs up, etc. In the minors, you can get away with that and wait for a mistake to hit. In MLB, those mistakes are fewer and far between. There's been plenty of hitters better than him that never could make the adjustment. He's a very confident player, and I hope he can figure it out.

 

I don't get caught up in the forecasting business, comps, etc. Frankly it's just guessing more than anything else, because with most players you just don't know. All you can do with players like Arcia (who are CAPABLE of being a productive MLB player,) is give them the opportunity at the right time and see what they can do. He could be Tulo, he could be Yadiel Rivera.

[JohnBriggs12]

Arcia has fanned 10 times in 58 plate appearances facing most of the pitchers for the first time. He's clearly not overmatched. He's learning the league with no pressure. He'd have to do the same thing if they held him back in AAA for 2 years. They don't need to have all their core players learning the league at the same time.

 

It's smart to stagger the arby clocks of core players. Arcia is the first of the core group to arrive. What you want all your core players reaching FA at the same time?

 

Finally, there are SS behind him in the system and they are always placing a high priority in acquiring them. Better to find out if Arcia's the real deal sooner rather than late.

[PrestigeWorldwide]

I sat on the first-base side on Sunday and was watching his at-bats closely since it was the first time I had seen him in person. I definitely noticed that he was consistently out on his front foot.

 

I like what they are doing with him, getting him used to the majors and seeing what they have in him. He has been as advertised in the field and has been fun to watch out there.

[monty57]

If the point is that he has a downside that we should be aware of, then sure, but I think most of us are aware of it; I don't see a lot of people here projecting him for insane greatness.

 

If the point is that he's weak for a top prospect, I disagree. He isn't can't-miss -- few prospects are -- but he's been in the 5-to-15 range on lists for a reason, or several reasons. If you don't like the kind of prospect he is -- big-time glove, wide variation in what he might be offensively -- then you can reasonably argue that people have been ranking him too high all along. But the consensus appears to be that those attributes make him close to an elite prospect.

 

Also, I don't really care what other shortstops he's better than. Sometimes you get waves of a certain kind of player -- leadoff men, slugging corner OFs, whatever. If you have (forgive the shorthand) a five-win ss, and he's only the tenth-best ss in baseball, you aren't going to trade him for a three-win 2b who's the fourth-best 2b in baseball. What matters IMHO is if the guy is winning games.

 

True, but a team can't win if they have below-competition players everywhere.

 

We all want to celebrate the farm system and prospects who we've been following through the minors. And the Brewers organization has insisted (and I agree) that they have to have good, young, affordable, home-grown players in order to compete.

 

But don't they have to produce players who are better than the players being produced by other teams, if they want to win?

 

I don't know enough about Arcia to know if he's being rated too high or not. He's probably going to be fine, and it will be fun to see what the pitching staff can do with an elite defender behind them.

 

But when I read the fangraphs post and Alcides Escobar is the comp, I am reminded about how every year there is a prospect who gets hyped, and sometimes they don't live up to expectations.

 

The knock on the system prior to this year's trade deadline was that while there was a lot of talent, it lacked "star" talent. I think the guys we picked up at the trade deadline (and adding Ray in the draft) have the potential to be star players. Adding that talent to the likes of Arcia, Hader and others makes me believe that there is little worry that we will only have "below competition level" talent coming up.

 

Over the next few years, we will graduate a lot of talent from the farm to the majors. Some of them will be really good players, and even the ones who are just role-players will still help the team when they're playing for league minimum.

 

I am very excited to see how our prospects perform as they're called up, and I think we should have a strong core of young players, complemented with inexpensive role-players freeing up cash to extend the core and add free agents. Don't let one article about Arcia bring you down.

[Ennder]

If Arcia consistently matches Escobar's 2011 and 2012 he is a star player though. Escobar just hasn't been able to do it consistently.

[JimH5]

Escobar had 1.9 WAR in 2011, good for 222nd place in MLB, 15th among SS.

In 2012, his 2.1 WAR put him in 207th place, 14th among SS.

 

His career year was 2014, with 3.3 WAR, good for 61st best, 8th among SS.

 

That's not a star in my eyes.

[1992casey]

Escobar was/is a better player defensively and Arcia has a much higher ceiling offensively.

I'm pretty much on with TheCrew07's assessment back in post 217. I don't get the offensive comparisons to Escobar. Alcides is pretty deficient on offense. I see no reason to believe that Orlando will be deficient. After 14 games in the Majors, I'd rather rely on the larger sample that his Minor League numbers offer.

 

[pre]Year Age AgeDif Tm Lg Lev G PA AB BA OBP SLG OPS

2011 16 -2.6 Brewers DOSL FRk 64 254 218 0.294 0.386 0.459 0.845

2013 18 -3.3 Wisconsin MIDW A 120 486 442 0.251 0.314 0.333 0.647

2014 19 -3.7 Brev Co FLOR A+ 127 546 498 0.289 0.346 0.392 0.738

2015 20 -4.0 Biloxi SOUL AA 129 552 512 0.307 0.347 0.453 0.800

2016 21 -5.5 Col Spr PCL AAA 100 440 404 0.267 0.320 0.403 0.723

Minors 2278 2074 0.282 0.339 0.404 0.742[/pre]

[brewcrewdue80]

Just can't figure out the concerns of his Clock because in no shape or form was he not going to play in September. And any injury to Villar he'd be the replacement. Because of his callup you are getting to see him more often in a Brewer uniform than you would have if they added him in September. As mentioned, he had a solid July. He continued those types of numbers or even better, you can't leave him sitting down in AAA to start next season to gain this team control argument. 29days in September service and 9-11 days to start next season you'd have to keep him down up til end of May next year. For the added 100 days of team control? You're now putting his Arb as Super 2. Players get a bit more expensive going through Arb 4 times. I'd expect he'd earn more in the 7years of control then vs. his 7years of control now w/o the Super 2.

 

As to his start with the bat. My concern was how he hit balls. And if he pulled them or if he'd use all the field. He'll be fine as he shown the ability to use all fields. He's 22 and will probably fill out some and raise his power ability 15-25%. 15HRs a year from the SS with GG caliber Defense? What more do you want? I feel the expectation level of every Brewer Position prospect is to have an .850+OPS or else he's a bust being at or above MLB avg of .739 currently.

How about 6BBs in 62PAs? vs. Hernan Perez's 11 in 270 PAs? That's showing he won't just be a BA contingent OB. Get him around .260 and .333OB? higher. And he's young! It took Villar his 3rd season and now 4th and look at his drastic improvement. I'd consider Arcia to potentially be that type of development hitter.