Orlando Arcia called up

[nate82]

Not exactly identical but pretty close.

 

Griffey Jr.

http://pbs.twimg.com/media/B2-fExwCEAATixt.png

 

 

Arcia

http://d3d2maoophos6y.cloudfront.net/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2016/05/12213819/357150422219_Suns_at_Shuckers.jpg

 

Arcia holds the bat out a little more than Griffey did. Griffey was also more standing straight up while Arcia has a small squat to his stance.

[Austin Tatious]

Looks to me like Arcia has good quickness in his bat. He gets those wrists cranking.

[MrTPlush]

We won't know if he has a batting stance swing issue for awhile. For some guys it works and some it doesn't. Some guys have a stance that works wonderful and all of a sudden they get to the MLB level and it doesn't work.

[JimH5]

I think that our eagerness for this system to start producing star talent is going to set expectations too high for what Arcia is to become. That he was ranked so high at the start of the season doesn't help.

 

There are so many great young shortstops in baseball. Is he going to be better than Seager? Correa? Lindor, Bogaerts, Diaz, Russell, either Crawford?

 

Fangraphs had a piece that had him being not unlike Alcides Escobar. That's not a player to celebrate as much as one you settle for until he becomes too expensive.

 

I would love for Arcia to be a superstar for years to come, but it's far from a done deal.

[sveumrules]

Is he going to be better than Seager? Correa? Lindor, Bogaerts, Diaz, Russell, either Crawford?

 

No. No. No, no, no, maybe, no (Brandon), maybe (JP).

 

If people are thinking that Arcia is going to hit anything like Seager or Correa they are definitely setting the bar too high. If Orlando can hit around 270/320/380 with upper tier defense & above average baserunning there is still plenty of value there.

[FVBrewerFan]

While I agree with all that, there is a chance his slugging% will be higher than that as he continues to develop. He has a little pop in his bat already, and he's still very young.

 

I would be perfectly happy with great defense and a .700- .725ish OPS. But the potential is there for him to exceed those numbers, coming almost exclusively from the slugging. (I just don't see him doing any better than that .320 OBP)

[JimH5]

Is he going to be better than Seager? Correa? Lindor, Bogaerts, Diaz, Russell, either Crawford?

 

No. No. No, no, no, maybe, no (Brandon), maybe (JP).

 

If people are thinking that Arcia is going to hit anything like Seager or Correa they are definitely setting the bar too high. If Orlando can hit around 270/320/380 with upper tier defense & above average baserunning there is still plenty of value there.

 

270/320/380 with speed and premium defense sounds like Jean Segura with a better glove.

 

You're right, there is value there. But from a #1 prospect, I would expect more.

[igor67]

A lot of his rating is driven, by the fact that his floor is so high because of the defense. With his hit tool he'd have to regress to not be a quality starter even in a SS rich era. He doesn't have the power to ever be an MVP type SS, but the bat to ball combined with solid pitch recognition does give him an outside shot of turning into a high average high OBP, gap power demon.

[sveumrules]

I think the best hope for Arcia out of the current crop of SS prospects is Lindor, who has outhit his minor league track record since arriving in the majors. Maybe Orlando can do the same, but it's pretty rare for a player to come up and immediately hit better in the bigs than he did on the way up.

 

But from a #1 prospect, I would expect more.

 

I think this is where things like prospect rankings can get dangerous. Sure Correa, Seager, Bogaerts & Arcia all were highly ranked SS prospects, but the first three achieved that ranking by consistently hitting at a high level throughout their minor league careers while Orlando got there on the strength of one breakout season, which still would have been considered a down year for any of the other three.

[JimH5]

I think the best hope for Arcia out of the current crop of SS prospects is Lindor, who has outhit his minor league track record since arriving in the majors. Maybe Orlando can do the same, but it's pretty rare for a player to come up and immediately hit better in the bigs than he did on the way up.

 

But from a #1 prospect, I would expect more.

 

I think this is where things like prospect rankings can get dangerous. Sure Correa, Seager, Bogaerts & Arcia all were highly ranked SS prospects, but the first three achieved that ranking by consistently hitting at a high level throughout their minor league careers while Orlando got there on the strength of one breakout season, which still would have been considered a down year for any of the other three.

 

I worry that once the shine is off, we'll see a guy destined to be a #7 or #8 hitter who ranks 18th-25th among shortstops, capable of a highlight play on defense, but no more valuable than Villar.

 

The Brewers have to produce players better than the Cardinals, Cubs, Pirates & Reds. And there is reason to question if this shortstop is as good as the shortstops on competing teams.

 

I get it that a lot of his greatness comes from his defense, but that's still hard to measure. Andrelton Simmons is the most skilled defensive SS in recent memory, but he doesn't hit enough to be elite. There's only so much value that can be produced in the field.

 

Arcia is supposedly their top guy. But he could turn out to be just another guy.

[Bombers]

I don't get some of the negativity. Jose Reyes's minor league stats ended up as .284 / .340 / .418 / .758 - Arcia's is .282 / .339 / .404 / .742 - so one could say Arcia could end up with a career like Jose Reyes who was a prime leadoff hitter for many years. Over Reyes's 13 years, he only has 3 years with an OPS over 800. For Arcia, at 22 years old, all you can do is sit back and watch. Sure he could go either way, but lets enjoy his time before we denounce him the permanent 8 hitter.

[JimH5]

I'm not denouncing him, I'm just trying to learn more about him and to put him into the context of his peers.

 

If he produces like Reyes, that would be great-- but it would be much better than 270/320/380.

 

And it would be better than the projection that Chris Mitchell posted on Fangraphs.

 

I want to filter out the fan in me when looking forward at Arcia.

[homer]

Most scouting reports I've read say he has a frame to add some bulk and that 15 - 20 homers a season would not be surprising.

[AKCheesehead]

The kid just turned 22. In my mind, there's just no telling what his potential with the bat is, and I'm not going to worry too much over it, I think he'll hit just fine.

 

FWIW, Omar Vizquel also entered the bigs at 22, and stuck around for 23 years with a career OPS of .688.

[gregmag]

If the point is that he has a downside that we should be aware of, then sure, but I think most of us are aware of it; I don't see a lot of people here projecting him for insane greatness.

 

If the point is that he's weak for a top prospect, I disagree. He isn't can't-miss -- few prospects are -- but he's been in the 5-to-15 range on lists for a reason, or several reasons. If you don't like the kind of prospect he is -- big-time glove, wide variation in what he might be offensively -- then you can reasonably argue that people have been ranking him too high all along. But the consensus appears to be that those attributes make him close to an elite prospect.

 

Also, I don't really care what other shortstops he's better than. Sometimes you get waves of a certain kind of player -- leadoff men, slugging corner OFs, whatever. If you have (forgive the shorthand) a five-win ss, and he's only the tenth-best ss in baseball, you aren't going to trade him for a three-win 2b who's the fourth-best 2b in baseball. What matters IMHO is if the guy is winning games.

[JimH5]

If the point is that he has a downside that we should be aware of, then sure, but I think most of us are aware of it; I don't see a lot of people here projecting him for insane greatness.

 

If the point is that he's weak for a top prospect, I disagree. He isn't can't-miss -- few prospects are -- but he's been in the 5-to-15 range on lists for a reason, or several reasons. If you don't like the kind of prospect he is -- big-time glove, wide variation in what he might be offensively -- then you can reasonably argue that people have been ranking him too high all along. But the consensus appears to be that those attributes make him close to an elite prospect.

 

Also, I don't really care what other shortstops he's better than. Sometimes you get waves of a certain kind of player -- leadoff men, slugging corner OFs, whatever. If you have (forgive the shorthand) a five-win ss, and he's only the tenth-best ss in baseball, you aren't going to trade him for a three-win 2b who's the fourth-best 2b in baseball. What matters IMHO is if the guy is winning games.

 

True, but a team can't win if they have below-competition players everywhere.

 

We all want to celebrate the farm system and prospects who we've been following through the minors. And the Brewers organization has insisted (and I agree) that they have to have good, young, affordable, home-grown players in order to compete.

 

But don't they have to produce players who are better than the players being produced by other teams, if they want to win?

 

I don't know enough about Arcia to know if he's being rated too high or not. He's probably going to be fine, and it will be fun to see what the pitching staff can do with an elite defender behind them.

 

But when I read the fangraphs post and Alcides Escobar is the comp, I am reminded about how every year there is a prospect who gets hyped, and sometimes they don't live up to expectations.

[CheezWizHed]

I think Alcides actually out played his prospect status. He ended up a better MLB player than I thought he would be at least.

 

But as others have said, one reason Arcia is rated high is what could be, not what he is now. He comps to Escobar now because his floor is there. But his ceiling is more aligned with a 850 OPS hitter when he fills out and gets a bit more experience. But as with all prospects... who knows.

 

I rated Brinson over Arcia in the last top 25 because both of their floors are similar (great D, league average hitter at their position), but I think Brinson's ceiling is loser to a Braun-type hitter.

[JimH5]

If Alcides has outperformed his prospect status, then it must have been low. It has taken him 1085 career games to amass a total of 10.1 WAR (Fangraphs).

 

By comparison in the division:

 

Zack Cozart has produced 10.2 WAR in 600 games

Addison Russell has produced 5.4 WAR in 247 games

Aledmys Diaz has produced 2.5 WAR in 96 games

Jordy Mercer has produced 5.1 WAR in 516 games

 

If Alcides were in the NL Central, he would be the least productive (per game) shortstop. Hence my worries about the value of Arcia relative to the excitement we're supposed to feel about the best guy in the system.

 

I've gone on and on about it, so I'll set my angst aside for now. His performance will be what it is, and we'll all get to see it.

[sveumrules]

http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb-prospect-surplus-values-2016-updated-edition/

 

Based on the linked research the 42 hitters ranked between #11-25 by BA since 1990 have produced an average of 13 WAR during their club control years. Alcides peaked at #12 and put up 10.8 during his club control years, so he's slightly underperformed his ranking by their calculations. Main cause being his abysmal batting lines outside of 2012 & 2014.

 

As it relates to Orlando, I think his ranking was based on someone like Alcides being a comp for a likely attainable floor with a good chance that Arcia provides better offensive production. What will be fun to see is by how much? How soon? & with how much consistency?

 

Also, one thousand posts apparently. Thanks brewerfan.net for years of education & entertainment!

[CheezWizHed]

Cumulative WAR is a pretty useless stat IMO. All players have a bell curve on their production. Cumulative WAR hides peaks and drop-offs in a player's production.

 

Alcides WAR:

2009: 0.4

2010: 0.5

2011: 1.9

2012: 2.1

2013: 1.1

2014: 3.3

2015: 1.5

2016: -0.8

 

Given his poor offensive performance, I never expected him to go above 1.0 WAR. Him hitting 293 or 285 BA was also exceeding my expectations (though they were very empty offensive lines with 293/331/390 and 285/317/377).

 

So at his peak, he was offensively average(ish) with extremely high defense. That peak lasted about 3 years (actually 2 of those 3 years).

 

I think Orlando's floor is round that area, but I would think he can maintain it better longer as his MiLB career has shown a better capability for OBP and SLG than Escobar ever did.

 

But either way, why the angst? They are prospects. The future is open. Some will succeed that we didn't think had a chance. Others will fall flat. As TT does for the Packers, get as much young talent in all areas as possible and those unexpected failures tend to cover themselves.

 

For example, if Arcia should happen to fall on his face at the MLB level, we have Villar as someone that has played a very competent SS for us already.

[JimH5]

But either way, why the angst? They are prospects. The future is open. Some will succeed that we didn't think had a chance. Others will fall flat. As TT does for the Packers, get as much young talent in all areas as possible and those unexpected failures tend to cover themselves.

 

For example, if Arcia should happen to fall on his face at the MLB level, we have Villar as someone that has played a very competent SS for us already.

 

That is the wheat farmer's approach. To grow as much of something as possible, in hopes of enriching himself through volume. It's not a bad approach, as producing something in quantity is good.

 

Unfortunately, the Brewers need saffron, too. High quality superstars. Since they can't shop for them in free agency, they need to produce their own. And when a prospect is this highly rated, he should be better than the players rated below him. I know that it doesn't always end up that way, but it's still the expectation.

 

Here's the article I have been referencing:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/projecting-orlando-arcia/

 

The words that he uses in the article are all complimentary, but the player comps who he names are all very pedestrian players. Alcides, D'Angelo Jimenez, Omar Infante. . .Dustin Pedroia is on the list too, but so is Neifi Perez, so they kind of negate each other.

 

To me it's just a disconnect between a guy being considered the best prospect in the #1 farm system in baseball and then having this article, projecting him to be just an average major leaguer. If they're going to build through prospects, someone is going to have to be great, not just average.

[tmwiese55]

So maybe they're considering him a very low bust chance (due to D) and rating him that high on account of it. Whereas other guys have higher ceilings due to offense but much better chance of busting because hitting doesn't as easily translate to the majors. It's the nature of the rating systems and is all subjective. I don't see anything to get worked up on, maybe you can find a list that only factors in offensive ability. We all agree that we still need some high end hitters to make it for us and chances are Arcia won't be a middle of the order of the bat. But I also don't blame the list makers for putting a guy they figure who is almost a lock to play 10ish years in the majors based on his D that high on their lists considering how often guys up there completely flop.

[JohnBriggs12]

Are you guys kidding? People rave about Addison Russell and he's posted a major league OPS of .712. Certainly Arcia is capable of that the next year and a half.

 

Arcia compares very favorably with Russell in my opinion. Russell has a more mature build at this point but Arcia will fill out.

[sveumrules]

I'd be excited if Orlando could hit as well as Russell has so far in his major league career, the main hurdle I see is that Addison has always hit for considerably more power than Arcia.

 

Addison MiLB career 301/377/520

Orlando MiLB career 282/339/404

Addison MLB career 243/316/396

 

The edge Arcia has on someone like Russell is superior speed & contact skills. Addison struck out in about 21% of his minor league plate appearances compared to only about 12% for Orlando. Hopefully Arcia can leverage those advantages into a higher batting average than Russell has put up so far as I don't think the odds of him matching Addison in walk rate or power production are very high.

[3and2Fastball]

It is all just a small sample but I like that he's taking some walks and isn't just a free swinger. 7 out of the 11 times he's gotten on base he's scored, too. He has great speed. I think he's going to be just fine. His defense is elite