Orlando Arcia called up

[FVBrewerFan]

What more do you want? I feel the expectation level of every Brewer Position prospect is to have an .850+OPS or else he's a bust being at or above MLB avg of .739 currently.

 

He was/is the Brewers #1 prospect. That's why people expect him to be better than MLB average OPS, no matter how good his defense is. I don't have those expectations, just pointing out why many fans expect more. If he was the 18th ranked prospect, it wouldn't be an issue.

[monty57]

What more do you want? I feel the expectation level of every Brewer Position prospect is to have an .850+OPS or else he's a bust being at or above MLB avg of .739 currently.

 

He was/is the Brewers #1 prospect. That's why people expect him to be better than MLB average OPS, no matter how good his defense is. I don't have those expectations, just pointing out why many fans expect more. If he was the 18th ranked prospect, it wouldn't be an issue.

 

Agree. I've commented on this before, but there don't appear to be any Bryce Harper/Mike Trout type players in the minors at this time. These are generational talent, and therefore aren't very common, so not all "#1 prospects" are created equally. Fans shouldn't assume that just because someone is "#1" that they will automatically be a superstar... most aren't.

 

Rankings are subjective. Arcia should be a good player, but his stock/ranking rose quickly after his breakout season in Biloxi that gave people a glimpse of what he could be, which is a Gold Glove caliber defender that can hit for average and power. Maybe he'll be that player, or maybe he'll "just" be a Gold Glove caliber defender who is an average hitter. Time will tell, but he should at the very least be a decent MLB player, which isn't always easy to find at SS.

 

Because rankings are subjective, the "list-makers" could just as easily have put guys like Hader and Brinson ahead of Arcia, and given time there are likely others who will break out and surpass Arcia's projections. Would people be less antsy if Arcia was the #3 prospect and a meaningless article was written about him?

 

The bottom line is that we have a lot of talent in the minors. Some will exceed expectations, some will play to expectation, and some will not reach expectations. By having a lot of talented prospects, we have a pretty good shot at having some guys turn into stars and a bunch of guys turn into MLB players. We are getting a chance now to see how Arcia pans out. He's a safe bet to be a good player, so let's give him a chance to show us what he can do before we get too worried about what one writer thinks he will be, especially when plenty of scouts and writers have a higher opinion of him than that one writer.

[logan82]

Just can't figure out the concerns of his Clock because in no shape or form was he not going to play in September. And any injury to Villar he'd be the replacement. Because of his callup you are getting to see him more often in a Brewer uniform than you would have if they added him in September.

It wasn't a given he would be called up. He had a pretty poor year in AAA and that shouldn't be ignored because of one hot month. With the year he was having in AAA I wouldn't have been surprised if he had been sent back to AAA again next year.

[FVBrewerFan]

Just can't figure out the concerns of his Clock because in no shape or form was he not going to play in September. And any injury to Villar he'd be the replacement. Because of his callup you are getting to see him more often in a Brewer uniform than you would have if they added him in September.

It wasn't a given he would be called up. He had a pretty poor year in AAA and that shouldn't be ignored because of one hot month. With the year he was having in AAA I wouldn't have been surprised if he had been sent back to AAA again next year.

 

He could start out at AAA next year, wouldn't surprise me at all. All depends how he does for the remainder of this season. If he's still struggling like this, it's a good learning experience for Orlando. He can go back and work on things in AAA, not the end of the world. I've said before, he is a very confident player and may be reluctant to change, as most players are. Worst case, this will show him maybe he does need to change certain things in order to hit at the MLB level.

[jerichoholicninja]

What more do you want? I feel the expectation level of every Brewer Position prospect is to have an .850+OPS or else he's a bust being at or above MLB avg of .739 currently.

 

He was/is the Brewers #1 prospect. That's why people expect him to be better than MLB average OPS, no matter how good his defense is. I don't have those expectations, just pointing out why many fans expect more. If he was the 18th ranked prospect, it wouldn't be an issue.

 

Yup. I posted last year that Arcia was only going to disappoint fans (especially the casual ones). He's been labeled a top Brewers prospect for a couple years so people are going to assume a Weeks, Hardy, Braun, Fielder, Hart type player but he's not.

[sveumrules]

I think the offensive comparisons to Escobar are primarily based on the similarity of their minor league track record.

 

Alcides (Age | Level | PAs | wRC+)

 

19 | A+ | 382 | 73

20 | A+ | 283 | 102

20 | AA | 245 | 78

21 | AA | 597 | 114

22 | AAA | 487 | 102

Minor League Career 293/333/377

 

Orlando (Age | Level | PAs | wRC+)

 

18 | A | 486 | 84

19 | A+ | 546 | 113

20 | AA | 552 | 126

21 | AAA | 440 | 90

Minor League Career 282/339/404

 

Orlando was younger & incrementally better across the board in component stats (BB%, K%, ISO) than Alcides which is why I think Escobar is viewed as a good comp for Arcia's floor on offense. Alcides has hit about 260/300/340 so far in the majors, I think a 270/320/380 projection for Arcia seems fair which combined with hopefully above average defense & baserunning would add up to about 3 WAR.

[Ennder]

Yup. I posted last year that Arcia was only going to disappoint fans (especially the casual ones). He's been labeled a top Brewers prospect for a couple years so people are going to assume a Weeks, Hardy, Braun, Fielder, Hart type player but he's not.

 

 

That is a really wide range of talents there. So he is not somewhere between average and potential HOF? I expect Arcia will probably match Weeks 11 career WAR.

[jerichoholicninja]

Yup. I posted last year that Arcia was only going to disappoint fans (especially the casual ones). He's been labeled a top Brewers prospect for a couple years so people are going to assume a Weeks, Hardy, Braun, Fielder, Hart type player but he's not.

 

 

That is a really wide range of talents there. So he is not somewhere between average and potential HOF? I expect Arcia will probably match Weeks 11 career WAR.

 

My point is people are expecting a guy who can really hit. Arcia will never come close to matching any of those offensively and many fans will see him as a failure because of it.

[1992casey]

When you compare Escobar and Arcia, there's definitely a similarity between their minor league offensive numbers. I don't think Alcides' numbers would have predicted a Major League OBP below .300, though. And I don't think it's right to suggest that because Escobar's numbers fell to that degree, it'll also happen to Arcia. But I'm fine with the idea that Alcides could represent Orlando's floor.

 

Putting this all in perspective, Orlando wasn't a top draft pick (as he wasn't drafted), and he was signed for a $95,000 bonus at a time when teams could spend as much as they wanted on international free agents. I don't think he's required to do much at all to be termed a "success."

[JimH5]

Putting this all in perspective, Orlando wasn't a top draft pick (as he wasn't drafted), and he was signed for a $95,000 bonus at a time when teams could spend as much as they wanted on international free agents. I don't think he's required to do much at all to be termed a "success."

 

That's the kind of success that a team can celebrate if they land a Rule 5 guy and he lasts the season. That's not the kind of success that a team can celebrate if he is being presented to their fans as the top and current representative of a quality minor league system.

 

Fans don't care that he was $95,000 because he's being promoted as the face of the future. And the Brewers are the ones doing that promoting. My expectations are different from Arcia as they are of Andy Wilkins.

[1992casey]

That's not the kind of success that a team can celebrate if he is being presented to their fans as the top and current representative of a quality minor league system.

 

That's an important point. Maybe it isn't fair to pin these high expectations on him. But the team and the media are doing it. Let's hope that there's good reason for all the talk despite the fact that some of us here are expressing varying degrees of skepticism.

[Ennder]

Escobar had 1.9 WAR in 2011, good for 222nd place in MLB, 15th among SS.

In 2012, his 2.1 WAR put him in 207th place, 14th among SS.

 

His career year was 2014, with 3.3 WAR, good for 61st best, 8th among SS.

 

That's not a star in my eyes.

 

Differences in fielding metrics. Bref has him at 2.7 and 3.4 those years.

[MadThinker88]

Much like Lindor last season, Arcia seems to have settled in around the 20 game mark and start moving his numbers up..

 

If Arcia could be Lindor-lite, he would be a solid ball player.

[sveumrules]

Agree that Lindor is probably close to the highest realistic outcome for Arcia. Francisco is at 310/353/462 for his MLB career which is eerily similar to Orlando's line of 307/347/453 during his breakout 2015 at Biloxi. Their career minor league lines are pretty close too, 279/354/384 vs. 282/339/404.

[MadThinker88]

Lindor has hit much better than expected in the majors.

Don't think anyone expected him (or any player) to be 30 points higher in the majors than his/ their minor league line.

[monkeyman343434]

Lindor has hit much better than expected in the majors.

Don't think anyone expected him (or any player) to be 30 points higher in the majors than his/ their minor league line.

 

It happens though. Some of these guys are quite a bit younger than the majority of the league's they're playing in coming up through the minors, then when their bodies are maturing, they are already up in the majors and they start hitting with more power than when they were incredibly young in the minors.

[MrTPlush]

Still not all that impressed with Arcia so far, but not really that concerned after 85 ABs. Still looks pretty lost at the plate swinging at pitches he shouldn't even take the bat off his shoulder for.

[MNBrew]

Still not all that impressed with Arcia so far, but not really that concerned after 85 ABs. Still looks pretty lost at the plate swinging at pitches he shouldn't even take the bat off his shoulder for.

Given how hitting in Colorado Springs was going this year, I don't think most folks on this board seriously expected him to look like an accomplished major leaguer or budding All-Star in this first taste of the majors -- though of course no one would've complained if he did.

 

I think the logic for bringing him up wasn't because he was totally MLB-ready, rather because he was ready to be pushed to up his game to the major-league level, and I'd think that's hard to do at AAA in late July when you've already been in AAA all year.

[JimH5]

Still not all that impressed with Arcia so far, but not really that concerned after 85 ABs. Still looks pretty lost at the plate swinging at pitches he shouldn't even take the bat off his shoulder for.

 

Agreed. Even his HR the other day was so unbalanced. We'll see how he does the rest of the year. Posters here have told us expect limited offense, so I'll temper my wishes.

 

I'm also a little underwhelmed with his defense. My eye test hasn't yet declared him to have elite skills. His range is good, his hands seem good, his arm seems rather average.

 

He seems to be a very adequate defender..though maybe I thought he'd show better range. Or a better arm. Or, maybe I just haven't watched enough of his play to really reach a fair conclusion.

[Greenleaf1]

If you're looking for a test of his arm, look no further than yesterday's game in the 7th inning. Arcia's throw from deep in the hole to get McCutchen at first base was amazing.

 

I agree that his defense hasn't looked elite so far, mostly due to mistakes and a few tough plays that he didn't make that based on his reputation I would've expected him to make, but so far he has done a good job at making some medium to tough plays look easy, and I think with more experience he'll only get better.

[3and2Fastball]

Arcia is hitting .318 with a HR & 2 Doubles in his last 22 at-bats. I sense he is turning the corner and adjusting to MLB pitching. Still think he's gonna be a star

 

(edited for spelling)

[stoutdude04]

If you're looking for a test of his arm, look no further than yesterday's game in the 7th inning. Arcia's throw from deep in the hole to get McCutchen at first base was amazing.

 

I agree that his defense hasn't looked elite so far, mostly due to mistakes and a few tough plays that he didn't make that based on his reputation I would've expected him to make, but so far he has done a good job at making some medium to tough plays look easy, and I think with more experience he'll only get better.

 

 

I was in the right field bleachers and saw the play and had to do a double take on who was running. I thought it was Cutch...that's why I was shouting to throw to 2. Then he threw him out by 2(?) steps. I was pretty shocked when I looked back up and saw that it was in fact McCutchen running. It was a great play.

[tmwiese55]

I was there too and was astounded by the play. Important thing to note for me is that the throw got there in the air, I think Carter even had to reach above his head for it. You see that ball skipped there tons of times to beat a slow runner or when they don't get the out vs a fast guy.

[torts]

quick, easy way to know at what point do numbers start to actually represent a real representation.... takes even longer for pitching. Arcia is at 88 at bats/97 plate appearances this season

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/principles/sample-size/

 

Stabilization Points for Offense Statistics:

 

60 PA: Strikeout rate

120 PA: Walk rate

240 PA: HBP rate

290 PA: Single rate

1610 PA: XBH rate

170 PA: HR rate

910 AB: AVG

460 PA: OBP

320 AB: SLG

160 AB: ISO

[CheezWizHed]

1610 PA: XBH rate

170 PA: HR rate

 

That is an interesting disparity... Seems like there have been plenty of guys come up hitting a lot of doubles that turn into HRs once they mature. 170PAs seems way too low for HR rate.