Corey Ray

[NievesNoNO]

Should we be concerned about Corey Ray. I know it's a small sample but I wouldn't expect an advanced college bat to struggle like he has. Anybody seen him play or have any insight?

 

I have watched him since he played his first game with Brevard County. No need to panic, no need for concern. Sure, there are growing pains and he said after his first game, there is a big difference between college and pro ball. He knew it was going to take time to adjust and he deserves that time. He is not taking wild swings, he's making plays in the OF and he will be everything a 1st -round pick should be, at least in my estimation.

 

As you said, it's a small sample size, but he has shown glimpses of what he's capable of. I think he will be fine. Not only that, but he's got his head on straight and he's a down-to-earth kid. One of the best interviews I've done in my two years covering the team.

 

Good stuff, thanks for the info. I also didn't realize Brevard was such a difficult place to hit.

 

Good to hear the others aren't overly concerned and that maybe the club just wanted to challenge him immediately.

[igor67]

I used to buy the struggling kool-aid, but like everything there can easily be too much of a good thing. The optimal amount of struggle for every person is different. What tempers and motivates one person will pummel another into submission. The challenge must be perceived as doable and a bunch of other things. All of which means that if you want to maximize the number of players who are improving your chances of that happening must be worse with extreme challenges.

[FVBrewerFan]

I used to buy the struggling kool-aid, but like everything there can easily be too much of a good thing. The optimal amount of struggle for every person is different. What tempers and motivates one person will pummel another into submission. The challenge must be perceived as doable and a bunch of other things. All of which means that if you want to maximize the number of players who are improving your chances of that happening must be worse with extreme challenges.

 

Agreed, and that's always a fine line. Either Brewers player development folks are making the right decisions there, or there needs to be changes made. In general, they're really pushing guys through. I hope they're confident the players involved can handle it, and they're not doing it just to rush the rebuild.

 

Collymore is a good example. Not a top prospect or anything, but they start him in BC due to crowded OF in WI. Looked like he wasn't overmatched at first, but fell off a cliff to the point where he's hitting under .200 now.

 

I don't want to see the same thing happen to Ray, whether it's due to the park or just not ready for Advanced A ball pitching.

[Austin Tatious]

Like it or not, you're graded on a curve. When you're taken fifth overall as an advanced college bat, you're expected to progress rapidly. Andrew Benintendi and Alex Bregman are in the majors 14 months after being drafted. That may be too optimistic, frankly, but Ray ought to be in Milwaukee by June 2018. That is a do-able progression for the 5th overall pick out of college.

[splitterpfj]

Like it or not, you're graded on a curve. When you're taken fifth overall as an advanced college bat, you're expected to progress rapidly. Andrew Benintendi and Alex Bregman are in the majors 14 months after being drafted. That may be too optimistic, frankly, but Ray ought to be in Milwaukee by June 2018. That is a do-able progression for the 5th overall pick out of college.

 

Austin, I can't tell you how disappointed I'll be if I ever find out the Brewers paint with such broad strokes.

 

I get your point, some guys do that, but for instance, John Olerud never spent a day in the minor leagues - does that mean, since that's, "doable", the next lefty-swinging, high contact rate college 1B should be placed directly in the major leagues?

 

Paul Molitor spent 1/2 season in the minor leagues out of college, Robin Yount did the same out of high school, Ryan Braun was up in under two calendar years out of college, Rickie Weeks was up three years after college.

 

Players are individuals, and they simply must be treated as such. I was very surprised when I heard Ray was going straight to Brevard, I thought it was over-aggressive, and I still do. I would have put him in Appleton - if he had torn it up for two weeks, ok, send him up if you think he's ready.

 

Ray is an important, expensive, valuable asset - I couldn't care less what any other player in the history of baseball has done, I care about Corey Ray as Corey Ray. I think the organization took a chance here, and I don't like it.

[MrTPlush]

I was never a big fan of putting him at A+. I can't help, but wonder why that decision was ultimately made. Was it made just so he could play center and so could Clark? If so that was a big waste as Brinson will play center for years to come and my god I hope Ray gets to the majors fast enough to make that a problem.

 

I won't blame them for their decisions to acquire any of these guys though. We drafted Clark with no clear future CFer and Phillips was then acquired after the fact. We then drafted Ray which might be questionable, but his tools are fantastic. If Phillips flopped he could easily play center. THEN not that we could have predicted, but we then got Brinson who trumps them all and is in AAA.

 

Sure maybe unpredictable, but it sucks knowing we got four players who had a ton of value tied to being CFers and 3 of them won't play there. Hopefully the power develops for the others so they profile at the corners better.

 

I wish we weren't stockpiling OFers like no tomorrow, but it is what it is.

[FVBrewerFan]

Sure maybe unpredictable, but it sucks knowing we got four players who had a ton of value tied to being CFers and 3 of them won't play there. Hopefully the power develops for the others so they profile at the corners better.

 

I wish we weren't stockpiling OFers like no tomorrow, but it is what it is.

 

I get what you're saying, there's Harrison (and others) on the way as well. Good news is, it's not a problem until it's a problem.

 

The odds are extremely low Brinson, Phillips, Ray, and Clark all make it to MLB and are all at least acceptable, positive WAR players. I actually love the fact they all have CF ability, that translates to really good corner OF defense. Nothing wrong with Clark starting out as the 4th OF temporarily if it comes to that.

 

I'm just concerned with OPS, fine with me if it's more OBP heavy rather than slugging. But if that is a concern, remember if Brinson plays CF they will have above average power there for the position. That would offset below average power from Ray or Clark playing corner OF. And if it's Phillips, power isn't his problem.

 

If all of them develop, you can always trade one. Depth is never a bad thing.

[Point Beer Is Best]

I'm not sure what prompted the decision to put him in Brevard. If you place him at Appleton, not only do you ease him in for a few weeks, but there would be plenty of interest in local fans wanting to see him play in person. I know that player development is obviously going to trump local fan interest in a prospect playing in Appleton, but it would have bee a cool way to showcase your prize from the 2016 draft.

[FVBrewerFan]

I'm not sure what prompted the decision to put him in Brevard. If you place him at Appleton, not only do you ease him in for a few weeks, but there would be plenty of interest in local fans wanting to see him play in person. I know that player development is obviously going to trump local fan interest in a prospect playing in Appleton, but it would have bee a cool way to showcase your prize from the 2016 draft.

 

I can tell you that would have little or no impact on attendance. When MLB players rehab here, yea that draws a lot of attendance- especially if it's a bigger name. But #1 draft picks are par for the course around here. TRats games are about fan experience, only a small percentage go to watch the high ranked talent. And those of us who do go for that reason are already going to see Clark, Diaz, etc., etc.

[Nader Raider Tim]

 

I can tell you that would have little or no impact on attendance. When MLB players rehab here, yea that draws a lot of attendance- especially if it's a bigger name. But #1 draft picks are par for the course around here. TRats games are about fan experience, only a small percentage go to watch the high ranked talent. And those of us who do go for that reason are already going to see Clark, Diaz, etc., etc.

 

Yeah when I talk to people around here that are hitting up Rattler games they couldn't tell me the first thing about the player. It's mainly just a fun night out with the family / date night / free tickets. Trying to tell people to watch for Isan Diaz who is having a great year or something else I just see their eyes glaze over.

[I Heart Brewers]

Yeah. I think people that frequent this site are the 1%'r of Brewer fans.

[madbad2000]

The answer to that would be a yes and a no. Most fans aren't going for the talent, but the experience. You have diehard team supporters and families. There are people out there that go out of their way to see top talent from either the home team or the visitors. And I'm not just talking about autograph hounds. I know because I used to be in that boat and would drive way too far to see a game. That is the "extra" draw that would come from a top talent. I'm not saying Corey Ray would draw in thousands, but some would come and affiliates do pay attention to things like that. I still remember Alex Rodriguez's debut in Beloit after he was drafted and went to the Foxes. Poor Pohlman field had a nice influx of people out to see the phenom. I'm ok with where they placed Ray and won't get too concerned until next year. Give him time to get situated in pro ball, teaching, conditioning program and full offseason to see how he responds.

[splitterpfj]

DING! There's HR #1 for Corey Ray!

[LouisEly]

Like it or not, you're graded on a curve. When you're taken fifth overall as an advanced college bat, you're expected to progress rapidly. Andrew Benintendi and Alex Bregman are in the majors 14 months after being drafted. That may be too optimistic, frankly, but Ray ought to be in Milwaukee by June 2018. That is a do-able progression for the 5th overall pick out of college.

Not to pile on, but it's wise to be cautions comparing players from different drafts because talent levels can vary significantly from class to class. Benintendi started in short-season (NY-Penn league) and finished in low-A last year; he got his feet wet and built some confidence, and that seems to be the point of some in this thread. I tend to agree with that - build confidence first, then challenge.

 

There are IMO legitimate concerns about Ray and I brought them up when he was drafted. Ray was drafted for his power and athleticism. He may not have the instincts to play CF, but he has the speed to cover a lot of ground. That being said, there were five players on the Louisville baseball team with >200 ABs this past season. Of those five, Ray was first in HRs and SBs; despite being first in HRs by plenty of margin, he was 2nd in SLG, fourth in BA, and tied for third in OBP among those five. There were nine players with at least 150 ABs; of those Ray was 6th in BA, 5th in OBP, and 4th in SLG. This is among players on his own team. Yes, Ray led the U.S. collegiate national team in OPS, but that was a much smaller sample of AB's than this past season at Louisville. His floor is a good solid player, but there are reasons to believe he may not have an elite hit tool.

 

There is evidence that Ray might not hit for high average or have a high OBP. His athleticism is undeniable, no question, and no one is saying he is terrible. But as we saw with Brent Brewer, and now with Monte Harrison, elite athleticism doesn't necessarily translate into developing elite baseball skills.

[Austin Tatious]

Like it or not, you're graded on a curve. When you're taken fifth overall as an advanced college bat, you're expected to progress rapidly. Andrew Benintendi and Alex Bregman are in the majors 14 months after being drafted. That may be too optimistic, frankly, but Ray ought to be in Milwaukee by June 2018. That is a do-able progression for the 5th overall pick out of college.

 

Austin, I can't tell you how disappointed I'll be if I ever find out the Brewers paint with such broad strokes.

 

I get your point, some guys do that, but for instance, John Olerud never spent a day in the minor leagues - does that mean, since that's, "doable", the next lefty-swinging, high contact rate college 1B should be placed directly in the major leagues?

 

Paul Molitor spent 1/2 season in the minor leagues out of college, Robin Yount did the same out of high school, Ryan Braun was up in under two calendar years out of college, Rickie Weeks was up three years after college.

 

Players are individuals, and they simply must be treated as such. I was very surprised when I heard Ray was going straight to Brevard, I thought it was over-aggressive, and I still do. I would have put him in Appleton - if he had torn it up for two weeks, ok, send him up if you think he's ready.

 

Ray is an important, expensive, valuable asset - I couldn't care less what any other player in the history of baseball has done, I care about Corey Ray as Corey Ray. I think the organization took a chance here, and I don't like it.

 

You're an outstanding poster and I respect your views. I'm quite aware of the development time of the other guys you mentioned, and there is variability. But we can agree to disagree as far as premise. I stand by my expectation of a $4 million bonus baby who absorbed a tremendous opportunity cost of not getting an elite pitcher. I think Corey will be fine and will be hitting in Biloxi by next year. He has obvious tools that will translate to one degree or another. But, to look at Swanson, Benintendi, Happ, Schwarber, Bregman, i.e., the other high pick college bats, is fair IMO. In the end, you're right it will be about what the player ultimately becomes. But with a fifth overall pick, you can measure his progress with expectation. He's not a sixth round pick with a $500 k bonus.

 

When you're really good, there's nothing to over-complicate. We aren't looking for a project who may develop over a number of years into a contributor or role player. He needs to be a core piece and I think he will. We aren't looking for excuses and straining to justify every step Ray makes. He needs to be good and not a project that slowly churns in the minors.

 

Expectations rightfully should be high because you had the opportunity to draft an impact guy, and this was the guy we targeted.

 

I'm not saying you do this, but I don't get why some posters take concerns raised so personally and emotionally. There's no reason to be offended by concerns raised by any move by a team we all love. It is not a personal attack. I mean there are some concerns that should not even be controversial in view of actual results, and people nevertheless defend the organization regardless of reality. Nothing is personal here. We are having discussions and there are a number of tremendous posters who articulate themselves well and have frankly influenced my own thinking, which is a great compliment. Again, this is not directed to you but it was just on my mind, and so I put this thought in here.

[Mass Haas]

FS Wisconsin ran this video today

[Mass Haas]

Toolshed Stats: Prospects getting BABIP'd

Putting offensive performance into perspective using balls in play

By Sam Dykstra / MiLB.com

 

Ray's season was more worrisome as the No. 5 overall pick couldn't get it going after an especially productive final season at Louisville, where he hit .310/.388/.545 with 15 homers and 44 stolen bases. Ray's overall BABIP was hurt by a small three-game sample at Class A Wisconsin, where he went 1-for-8 on balls in play, and with a .299 BABIP in 231 at-bats at Class A Advanced Brevard County, it's more likely his 21.3 percent strikeout rate hurt his offensive performance more than anything BABIP-related.

 

Full article at link...

[Mass Haas]

Corey Ray hopes he’s ready for spring training

By Dan Zielinski III, the3rdmanin.com

 

Excellent job by Dan getting these quotes...