Lucroy and Jeffress to the Rangers for CF Lewis Brinson, RHP Luis Ortiz, PTBNL…(Lucroy comments, post 523; PTBNL is Ryan Cordell, post 581)

[jvrocksaz]

I understand what you are saying Crew and don't nessarily disagree on all your points. I am somewhat biased myself as I got to know Ronald on a personal level over the last year. My point on linking the story was to show how he hit rock bottom at age 19 (oversleeping, missing team bus, getting demoted and then the accident that caused a fatality) and then found a way to turn things around in a hurry. I wouldn't bet against this kid. He has a hit tool and if he continues to develop power, he would be a nice piece for any system. As a overall baseball player he may not be considered a great athlete (especially compared to players who play up the middle), but as a 1B he would be well above average as an athlete. He has a basketball player build to him but will most likely fill out more as he continues to grow into his body. All things considered, if he is the PTBNL I wouldn't be disappointed because of the others pieces we have already received.

[1992casey]

I don't know a lot about these players outside of what I've read in this long thread, and I don't think the Brewers should be picking someone based on the fact that they're thin at one position or another. But if a guy like Guzman is the best player available, so be it. As long as this PTBNL is a "top prospect," I wouldn't consider his acquisition to be a "downer." The downer would be getting someone who made us feel that the team wasn't getting a fair return.

[DR28]

jvrocksaz I appreciate the time it to link up that story, but it's hardly unbiased, it's basically what TH would write about a Brewer prospect.

 

I'm well aware that Guzman is flexible, him doing "splits" while he stretches is in every scouting report about him, but that doesn't mean he's athletic, especially in relation to his MLB peers. To me this is no different than people claiming that Clint Coulter was athletic because of his pre-draft scouting reports when if you watch him he's clearly pretty average in relation to his peers.

 

I would agree that he's a smart baseball player, that's also in most of the unbiased scouting reports about him, which is all his SB% suggests about him. SB% is not indicative of speed or athleticism, though the assumption otherwise is repeatedly brought up about any player or prospect with a high SB%, see Eric Farris as a recent example.

 

Guzman is a nice prospect, but I'm not interested in acquiring him simply because he's a 1B and fills an organizational need. Stearns said it best the other day in WI when he was on with the TV crew, MLB teams covet up the middle and pitching prospects so they have great value beyond any positional hole they could fill within the organization.

 

That's great and all but at some point you need to fill needs.

 

We have NOTHING in the system that reflects a 1B.

[pacopete4]

 

We have NOTHING in the system that reflects a 1B.

 

 

While you might be right, there are other ways to fill position needs. If Stearns doesn't feel Guzman is the guy to eventually fill that need and he thinks another pitcher might help this team in the long run then I really hope he follows his guy and continues to stack arms and middle of the field players.

[MKE81]

Guzman seems to be getting a somewhat negative rep on here outside of a few posters. He's a huge target at 1b, is solid defensively and has a projected above average hit tool with the "potential" for plus power. He's still young for his level (AA and AAA) and maturing across the board. It's just a huge bonus he happens to play a position of need - people are acting as if he's a target solely because he's a 1b. That's not the case, that's just a bonus. I'm fine if he's the PTBNL. I personally would chose a SP given they have Mendez, Jurado, Matuella, Payano. At least 2 of these will be options for us.

[adambr2]

jvrocksaz I appreciate the time it to link up that story, but it's hardly unbiased, it's basically what TH would write about a Brewer prospect.

 

I'm well aware that Guzman is flexible, him doing "splits" while he stretches is in every scouting report about him, but that doesn't mean he's athletic, especially in relation to his MLB peers. To me this is no different than people claiming that Clint Coulter was athletic because of his pre-draft scouting reports when if you watch him he's clearly pretty average in relation to his peers.

 

I would agree that he's a smart baseball player, that's also in most of the unbiased scouting reports about him, which is all his SB% suggests about him. SB% is not indicative of speed or athleticism, though the assumption otherwise is repeatedly brought up about any player or prospect with a high SB%, see Eric Farris as a recent example.

 

Guzman is a nice prospect, but I'm not interested in acquiring him simply because he's a 1B and fills an organizational need. Stearns said it best the other day in WI when he was on with the TV crew, MLB teams covet up the middle and pitching prospects so they have great value beyond any positional hole they could fill within the organization.

 

That's great and all but at some point you need to fill needs.

 

We have NOTHING in the system that reflects a 1B.

 

It's just that 1B is the easiest plug and go position on the field. Braun may wind up at 1st if he sticks around in his twilight years. When Prince left, Hart was our first baseman in 2012 and from what I recall did just fine. We've got plenty of outfielders in our system that one could conceivably end up at 1st. Or possibly Nottingham if his bat returns.

 

As someone said if you've got a mashing 1B prospect, like Prince, great, you go for it. But a 1B prospect with Lyle Overbay type upside doesn't get me too excited when 1B is much easier to fill than other positions.

 

I wouldn't be mad if it's Guzman, he just wouldn't be my first choice.

[trwi7]

That's great and all but at some point you need to fill needs.

 

We have NOTHING in the system that reflects a 1B.

 

Do you really think if we don't have an abundance of SS, CF or pitching prospects that we couldn't trade one of them for a 1B prospect when we actually need one?

[Ennder]

There is a difference between picking a guy just because he plays 1B and looking at players you value about equally and choosing one because he plays 1B. If say it comes down to Guzman or Taveras or Cordell and they value them about the same I see nothing at all wrong with going with the position of need at that point.

[DR28]

That's great and all but at some point you need to fill needs.

 

We have NOTHING in the system that reflects a 1B.

 

Do you really think if we don't have an abundance of SS, CF or pitching prospects that we couldn't trade one of them for a 1B prospect when we actually need one?

 

In most situations teams hold onto 3B and 1B prospects.

[I Heart Brewers]

Can the Brewers not move an OF to 1st base? Or is that a difficult transition? It's probably easier the other way around, 1B to OF.

[QuevedosTongue]

Can the Brewers not move an OF to 1st base? Or is that a difficult transition? It's probably easier the other way around, 1B to OF.

 

Generally, 1B is considered the last stop on the defensive spectrum before DH. The only 'requirement' to play 1B is generally some length, as a taller, longer person can reach further for errant throws. That said, if you can hit like Prince Fielder, that's not a big deal either.

[monty57]

Can the Brewers not move an OF to 1st base? Or is that a difficult transition? It's probably easier the other way around, 1B to OF.

 

Generally, 1B is considered the last stop on the defensive spectrum before DH. The only 'requirement' to play 1B is generally some length, as a taller, longer person can reach further for errant throws. That said, if you can hit like Prince Fielder, that's not a big deal either.

 

I think the most important factor in 1B is his ability to scoop, saving his IF a lot of errors. Most MLB corner OFs should be able to transition to 1B if given an offseason and spring training to do so, but not everyone will be able to make the move.

 

I would guess that some of our prospects could be moved to 1B and it wouldn't take too long before they would be able to play there at an acceptable level. Guys like Coulter and Nottingham have the traditional build you'd like for a 1B, so they are likely candidates to move if their bats get them to the MLB level.

[Austin Tatious]

My ideal first baseman is a left handed run producer. You can get that type of bat in the outfield too, and occasionally on the other side of the IF but 1B is ideal to get that production. The rest of the infield has guys that throw right handed. Some guys, like Scooter, throw right but bat left and that's fine. But, typically, you want the run producing type at 1b, and give yourselves a left handed stick.

 

After that, you want a guy with length who can (a) be a big target for the infielders, and (b) can stretch out to try to beat some runners on some flash finishes to the bag.

 

Guzman fits much of what you'd like to see at 1b. The real question is whether he is the guy who hit in a hitter's paradise in the TX league and is ranked fifth in the Rangers system after being a bonus baby, or is he the guy that scuffled for a few years in between at lower levels and was ranked 20+ in the Rangers system.

[torts]

Get the best talent you can, if it happens they play 1B that's great, but you want the best you can get, and looking specifically to fill positions will cause you to potentially miss out on better players. So far, Stearns has applied that method, I don't see that changing. If Guzman is the best talent he can get, great! If not, I hope he doesn't pass on that talent for guzman.

[MrTPlush]

That's great and all but at some point you need to fill needs.

 

We have NOTHING in the system that reflects a 1B.

 

Do you really think if we don't have an abundance of SS, CF or pitching prospects that we couldn't trade one of them for a 1B prospect when we actually need one?

 

What are you going to do?

 

Trade Arcia/etc. and let some unknown play? Risky

 

Trade a prospect for a prospect? Hard and unlikely idea

 

Trade a bunch of high quality prospects for a short term proven MLB player? Meh

 

Big money for a FA? Yikes

[bill hAll Star]

That's great and all but at some point you need to fill needs.

 

We have NOTHING in the system that reflects a 1B.

 

Do you really think if we don't have an abundance of SS, CF or pitching prospects that we couldn't trade one of them for a 1B prospect when we actually need one?

 

What are you going to do?

 

Trade Arcia/etc. and let some unknown play? Risky

 

Trade a prospect for a prospect? Hard and unlikely idea

 

Trade a bunch of high quality prospects for a short term proven MLB player? Meh

 

Big money for a FA? Yikes

 

Take a lesser player in a trade because he plays a position of need? Yikes.

 

You just listed 5 avenues to fill 1B if we're still missing one. Given that in any occasion where those 5 scenarios would need to come in play, that means out of our abundance of SS/OF prospects, we have too many good ones.

 

So for example, Arcia is a stud at SS, Villar is not a flash in the pan and is really good at 2B/3B, Diaz is arriving at 2B. Say Erceg is coming up for 3B or we have another stud SS that we had drafted/acquired coming up. "Overpaying" for an mid 30s Jose Abreu to play 1B (total example picked out of the sky, not meant to debate whether or not he'd be worth it in 2019 - and yes, I know he's a FA in 2020...too lazy to look up a better example) given the rest of the guys are all good and cheap.

 

Or maybe Villar could be dealt for a 1B in a similar situation. Or maybe Erceg goes for another stud prospect about to become 1B. Or Erceg moves there for a few years. So many options.

[patrickgpe]

i think Carter can fill in fine for now during this rebuild so they have time to get a 1st baseman when needed. Keeping piling up young middle of the field players and you can get a corner infielder. That being said we will probably never know the list, so if the PTBN is Guzman that doesn't mean the brewers necessarily didn't take best available.

[MKE81]

There are plenty of routes to go to land a 1b. You don't need an all-star. There are plenty of all-star caliber players (or just below) coming through the system. You need fundamentally sound players on both sides of the ball. Clearly they're going with players that can impact the running game as well. You don't need studs you need zero weaknesses.

[FVBrewerFan]

We are so far away from worrying about who's going to play 1B for a WS contending team. And for those who are worried, we found two of them for a song (Lind and Carter.) You're not going to have an All Star at every position, and it will be easy to find a serviceable 1B either inside or outside the organization.

[adambr2]

We are so far away from worrying about who's going to play 1B for a WS contending team. And for those who are worried, we found two of them for a song (Lind and Carter.) You're not going to have an All Star at every position, and it will be easy to find a serviceable 1B either inside or outside the organization.

 

I agree. I mean, Yuni Betancourt was our starting SS in the NLCS. You may not have a player of the future at every position even in a contending year, you might just have a stopgap.

 

That's not to say you don't look to acquire your 1B of the future if the opportunity presents itself, but at this point in the rebuild our acquisitions should be all about value and none about need.

[paul253]

And for those who are worried, we found two of them for a song (Lind and Carter

 

We found a guy that's hitting .207, has an on base slightly over .300 and strikes out every 2.6 at bats that we all pretend is good because he hits a lot of home runs. That's not very reassuring to me.

 

This is the same discussion we have in the draft. Inevitably the argument about getting a player at a position of need always gets hijacked. Nobody has EVER suggested we take a player at a certain position just because he plays that position and we need help there. The argument is that if there are two players of almost identical value there's nothing wrong with taking the guy at the position of need. If they think Guzman can be a productive major league first basemen then I have no problem at all getting him. I personally prefer Mendez but then again I almost always prefer pitching. Ultimately I don't think it'll be either because I think we would have jumped all over either of them had they been offered. I'm sure it'll be a low level A baller who has a lot of upside.

[pacopete4]

We are so far away from worrying about who's going to play 1B for a WS contending team. And for those who are worried, we found two of them for a song (Lind and Carter.) You're not going to have an All Star at every position, and it will be easy to find a serviceable 1B either inside or outside the organization.

 

I agree. I mean, Yuni Betancourt was our starting SS in the NLCS. You may not have a player of the future at every position even in a contending year, you might just have a stopgap.

 

That's not to say you don't look to acquire your 1B of the future if the opportunity presents itself, but at this point in the rebuild our acquisitions should be all about value and none about need.

 

 

But maybe if we don't have the Yuni's of the world, we progress further into the playoffs. Heck maybe even win one in our history.

[TooLiveBrew]

That's great and all but at some point you need to fill needs.

 

We have NOTHING in the system that reflects a 1B.

 

Do you really think if we don't have an abundance of SS, CF or pitching prospects that we couldn't trade one of them for a 1B prospect when we actually need one?

 

In most situations teams hold onto 3B and 1B prospects.

Based on what?

 

And even if you can't trade for a first baseman, it's basically the easiest position to fill via FA or big-league trade.

[brewcrewdue80]

If we got Guzman, great. I campaigned for him I think years ago. Lefty Bat, 6' 5". Remember this is the 3rd piece to the Lucroy/Jeffress trade. He's ranked #5 on Texas currently via MLB. And just to play devil's advocate, yes he's not your typical 1b profile bat, but you know who won the WS last year? Eric Hosmer and KC Royals. Lefty 6'4" 18HRs 93RBI .297/.363/.459 last season 3.6BWar. Yeah I'd see Guzman fitting that kind of comp. And maybe better.

 

He'd be a nice pickup. And a reason to try trading Carter in the offseason. I could see teams liking Carter for 2017 at 1b for his price. But 2018? Now he's too expensive for his production and a very small trade piece. Give Andy Wilkins his 1b chance and Guzman is the callup when ready or tired of Wilkins' production.

 

Josh Bell is MLB's #1 1b prospect. 14HRs in 400 MiLB ABs. AJ Reed is #2 15HRs 261 MiLB Abs. Cody Bellinger #3 16HRs 322ABs. Dominic Smith #4 12HRs 401 ABs. Bobby Bradley #5 22HRs 402ABs. Josh Naylor #6 and #100 overall MLB 10HRs 390ABs

Guzman has 16 in 403Abs. 1b as I've said a long time now, is the new SS in the pipelines. They just aren't producing like they used to.

 

That's reassuring to me if it ends up Guzman. But I don't believe it will be. I said Payano or Jurado. Those 3 are better than Ryan Cordell or Eric Jenkins gets. Wait and see.

[JohnBriggs12]

I just don't get the negativity toward Guzman. He's still just 21 and he's at AAA. He puts the ball in play and his power is emerging. At 6'5" 205, there's room to easily add muscle to be a 25-30 HR guy.

 

It's clear to me that the plan is to essentially have a team on the field in 2018 with most of the core pieces for the next 3-4 years in the big leagues. That includes Arcia, Brinson, Hader, Woodruff and some holdovers from the current roster that are already producing in their mid 20s (Villar, perhaps Perez or Santana). First base is the one spot they needed to fill for that to happen. They also need a left handed bat, if as it now appears Phillips isn't ready. Clark's timetable is still 3-4 years down the road as is Ray's.