Lucroy and Jeffress to the Rangers for CF Lewis Brinson, RHP Luis Ortiz, PTBNL…(Lucroy comments, post 523; PTBNL is Ryan Cordell, post 581)

[Fear The Chorizo]

By all accounts the Rangers have quite a few players in the low minor league levels that show a lot of promise...at least they always seem to - I agree that if the PTBNL were a marquee prospect name that's been tossed around as a potential trade headliner in recent weeks, that guy would probably just have been named and included in yesterday's deal. My guess is Stearns and scouts have a handful of options between rookie league and low A to evaluate, and simply want to see those players more to make a definitive judgment on who to select. They could easily be considered top prospects based on their potential alone, just not necessarily listed in any top 100-200 lists because they're probably so early in their professional careers.

[rickh150]

If you told me 3 days ago it's Brinson (Top 20) + PTBNL (as in a legit prospect such as Mendez or others ranked around him) for Lucroy I absolutely wouldn't be underwhelmed. I'd be ecstatic. We aren't talking about a Top 75-100. We're talking about a Top 20. There's a difference. And we'll most likely be getting a higher ranked prospect in their system so I wouldn't classify that as "change". But thanks for doing my thinking for me. And the vast majority of people on here had 3-4 Top 100 players coming back from CLE for Lucroy alone. Not 2. If it ends up being a Top 20 + Top 150 guy then great. If it ends up being Top 20 + Mendez (67) then outstanding.

 

"According to reports" we were taken? What reports? And did those reports include the PTBNL because that person is also involved in this trade?

 

Finally, you can doubt/criticize players all you want but don't tell anyone on this board your criticism had anything to do with their injury history or performance history because clearly that wasn't factored into your original comments. Your comments were a fat AA pitcher and a 240 AA hitter - insinuating we received nothing of value in return that will help us at the MLB level down the road

 

 

 

 

My "criticism" (such a mean and unfair word) had everything to do with current stats at AA (not great- Brinson IS hitting roughly 240 and Ortiz ERA is 4ish), physical appearance (250 pound pitcher), and injury history (Brinson-shoulder). I don't personally know any of these guys... No hard feelings one way or another. I expected a return like you honestly.... More prospects in the top 100ish ( just for Lucroy alone) because a large majority of these great prospects fizzle out. Play the odds. For Luc and JJ?? Definitely needed more top guys and guys with less question marks.

 

Brinson won't stay in that glorified top 20 of yours long with those stats at AA. Hopefully, he fully heals and does better soon. How many overweight young guys get trimmer as they age? Small number. Also, That PTBNL is not going to be a top ranked anything most likely. Rarely are. Yet, maybe DS can find a nugget. Who knows?

 

I had no problem with the Smith trade, by the way, because I didn't read many negatives about the prospects coming back... just a lot of positive comments/stats/rankings on each.

 

Reports... ok, my apologies...tweets/messages/notes from beat writers and news media outlets covering MLB and the trading deadline.

 

Also, how can you be satisfied with the deal when you wanted so many top 100 guys back just for Lucroy, not even mentioning JJ? Is Brinson that good in your mind? Why? Have you seen him play? Any footage? Or are your thoughts based on stats, rankings, andexpert opinions? Also, if you value quality so much, why didn't you mention you wanted THE prospect instead of a bunch of guys in the top 100?

[wichmae]

They literally just re-did the ranking and with that down AA year so far for Brinson hes still came in at 21

[lynchp]

Why did Lucroy have to be traded now instead of the off-season? If Lucroy was under contract for next season couldn't the team try to sign him to an extension? Would think if you are re-building you would want a good catcher as one of the corner stones to build on. Always heard the key to a strong team is good pitching and good defense up the middle (catcher, SS, 2B, CF).

 

How long of a rebuild project are the Brewers going to be? This team is starting to look worse than it did in the Dean Taylor days.

[Fear The Chorizo]

They literally just re-did the ranking and with that down AA year so far for Brinson hes still came in at 21

 

Now that both Arcia and Benintendi were called up, I guess Brinson now sits at #19...

 

And between Jeffress and Lucroy, only Jeffress was in the BA's top 100 prospects at any point during their minor league careers (Jeffress #100, 2008).

 

So I guess Texas got swindled by sending two top 100 prospects back for one. Top 100 lists are fickle - aside from the typical top 5 prospects on that list year in-year out (who are essentially untradeable unicorns, i.e., can't miss all stars that only injuries could prevent from being quality big leaguers), #'s 6-100 are very subjective, and could easily be replaced by #'s 101-200 in any given year.

 

Until we know the PTBNL, it's tough to gauge this trade - looks like we won't know until November, and even then it will probably be a few years until we have a better idea on how all three prospects pan out.

 

I'm more interested in comparing the careers of who we got to the potential players that would've come over from Cleveland.

[StearnsFTW]

If you told me 3 days ago it's Brinson (Top 20) + PTBNL (as in a legit prospect such as Mendez or others ranked around him) for Lucroy I absolutely wouldn't be underwhelmed. I'd be ecstatic. We aren't talking about a Top 75-100. We're talking about a Top 20. There's a difference. And we'll most likely be getting a higher ranked prospect in their system so I wouldn't classify that as "change". But thanks for doing my thinking for me. And the vast majority of people on here had 3-4 Top 100 players coming back from CLE for Lucroy alone. Not 2. If it ends up being a Top 20 + Top 150 guy then great. If it ends up being Top 20 + Mendez (67) then outstanding.

 

"According to reports" we were taken? What reports? And did those reports include the PTBNL because that person is also involved in this trade?

 

Finally, you can doubt/criticize players all you want but don't tell anyone on this board your criticism had anything to do with their injury history or performance history because clearly that wasn't factored into your original comments. Your comments were a fat AA pitcher and a 240 AA hitter - insinuating we received nothing of value in return that will help us at the MLB level down the road

 

 

 

 

My "criticism" (such a mean and unfair word) had everything to do with current stats at AA (not great- Brinson IS hitting roughly 240 and Ortiz ERA is 4ish), physical appearance (250 pound pitcher), and injury history (Brinson-shoulder). I don't personally know any of these guys... No hard feelings one way or another. I expected a return like you honestly.... More prospects in the top 100ish ( just for Lucroy alone) because a large majority of these great prospects fizzle out. Play the odds. For Luc and JJ?? Definitely needed more top guys and guys with less question marks.

 

Brinson won't stay in that glorified top 20 of yours long with those stats at AA. Hopefully, he fully heals and does better soon. How many overweight young guys get trimmer as they age? Small number. Also, That PTBNL is not going to be a top ranked anything most likely. Rarely are. Yet, maybe DS can find a nugget. Who knows?

 

I had no problem with the Smith trade, by the way, because I didn't read many negatives about the prospects coming back... just a lot of positive comments/stats/rankings on each.

 

Reports... ok, my apologies...tweets/messages/notes from beat writers and news media outlets covering MLB and the trading deadline.

 

Also, how can you be satisfied with the deal when you wanted so many top 100 guys back just for Lucroy, not even mentioning JJ? Is Brinson that good in your mind? Why? Have you seen him play? Any footage? Or are your thoughts based on stats, rankings, andexpert opinions? Also, if you value quality so much, why didn't you mention you wanted THE prospect instead of a bunch of guys in the top 100?

 

I can't speak for anyone else, but I never wanted a bunch of lower prospects. I wanted 2 big guys and a flyer from anyone. I said many times on the Cleveland discussion that I wanted Frazier/Zimmer and McKenzie. Not what we got.

 

Related, I don't think Jeffress was worth much.

[LouisEly]

Can a ptbnl be someone on a 40 man roster? Because I think we can stop the Mendez pipe dream if it can't be.

Please see the links in my post:

 

http://forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?p=999798#p999798

 

I haven't been able to find anything more current than those links.

 

Maybe one of the folks here who have some connections to some of the higher-ups in baseball (Mass Haas, splitterpfj, etc.) can reach out to one of them to get clarification on the PTBNL rules?

[jerichoholicninja]

Why did Lucroy have to be traded now instead of the off-season? If Lucroy was under contract for next season couldn't the team try to sign him to an extension? Would think if you are re-building you would want a good catcher as one of the corner stones to build on. Always heard the key to a strong team is good pitching and good defense up the middle (catcher, SS, 2B, CF).

 

How long of a rebuild project are the Brewers going to be? This team is starting to look worse than it did in the Dean Taylor days.

 

Please refer to the countless other posts that have addressed this topic. A Lucroy extension would not be smart, he's just about to leave his prime. And the Dean Taylor comment must be a joke, right?

[trwi7]

If Lucroy was under contract for next season couldn't the team try to sign him to an extension? Would think if you are re-building you would want a good catcher as one of the corner stones to build on.

 

rebuild

 

: to build (something) again after it has been damaged or destroyed

 

: to make important improvements or changes in (something)

 

You don't rebuild by keeping the same players. Especially when those players play a physically challenging position and are leaving their prime. You trade them for the best deal you can before they lose all their value by either declining in play or getting to free agency and leaving that way.

[igor67]

Late to the party, but from a pure rebuilding perspective the biggest reason to want a substantive 3rd player is very simple. You need to replace and exceed the value these 2 players have provided to the team. I'm not a huge WAR person, but it does a good job of eyeballing how difficult that is. Using baseball reference Lucroy has accumulated 18.3 WAR, and Jeffress 3.6 (almost all of the positive with Milwaukee). I think it's been a little conservative on the value of Lucroy's D, but again going for the eyeball here. That's 22 WAR to try and beat (afterall they got that much value before and weren't winning). Well my google-fu was a bit mediocre, so using just the WAR value for the 1st 6 years of a players career draft picks in spots 1-5 in the 1st round average 9.2 WAR. Which means in a deal to come out ahead on prospects you have to get pretty lucky with just 2 of them, and for 3 of them still requires a lot of perceived value at the time of the trade.

[SoCalBrewfan]

I think that's a reasonable analysis except that we were trading away not the past value of Lucroy and Jeffress, but the remainder of their respective contracts. So if you're very optimistic maybe 7 WAR for 1.5 years of Lucroy and then something like 6 for Jeffress? That sets the bar considerably lower.

[MadThinker88]

44 game hitting streak at the moment for Francisco Mejia.

Not sure if he will play in game 2 of the double header tonight...

[Nader Raider Tim]

http://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3507

 

"6. If a "Player to Be Named Later" (PTBNL) is part of a trade, the PTBNL cannot be on an MLB 25-man roster (MLB Active List) at any time beginning when the trade is executed (filed with the MLB office) up until when the trade is completed. A PTBNL can be a specific player or the PTBNL can be selected from a list of players or a class of players as determined by the clubs when the trade is executed. Beginning in 2015, a player signed after being selected in the MLB Rule 4 Draft (First-Year Player Draft) cannot be a PTBNL in any trade made prior to the conclusion of the World Series. Clubs have six months to agree on a PTBNL, but the clubs can agree (when the trade is executed) on a deadline that is less than six months. A cash payment (typically $50,000 for trades involving players on the 40-man roster) can be substituted for a PTBNL if no agreement can be reached within six months, but the alternative cash payment must be agreeable to both clubs and stated in writing when the trade is executed. "

 

 

Quoted part from link above. Seems to be the player can be on the 40 man roster, not the 25 man roster.

[tigerbrew]

I doubt the PTBNL is Mendez because if he was in list there wouldn't even be a need for a PTBNL, the Brewers would've taken him right away instead of waiting till the end of the season.

 

I really hope I'm wrong about this as Mendez the top pitching prospect that I want included in the trade. As of now the trade return for Lucroy/JJ has been disappointing.

[FVBrewerFan]

Why did Lucroy have to be traded now instead of the off-season? If Lucroy was under contract for next season couldn't the team try to sign him to an extension? Would think if you are re-building you would want a good catcher as one of the corner stones to build on. Always heard the key to a strong team is good pitching and good defense up the middle (catcher, SS, 2B, CF).

 

How long of a rebuild project are the Brewers going to be? This team is starting to look worse than it did in the Dean Taylor days.

 

Please refer to the countless other posts that have addressed this topic. A Lucroy extension would not be smart, he's just about to leave his prime. And the Dean Taylor comment must be a joke, right?

 

Plus little details like Lucroy saying publicly he had no interest in signing extension.

[MrTPlush]

Poor Haudricourt still thinks drafted players can be traded.

 

I don't blame him. Somehow 90% of this board and half the baseball world overall still doesn't understand this concept.

 

I would agree. Except that, you know, it's his job.

 

Haudricourt is like the Yuni B of the reporting world.

[billymac]

David Stearns on the broadcast just said the PTBNL will be a "very quality prospect" fwiw

[Eye Black]

Transcript of David Stearns answer during tonight's broadcast regarding the PTBNL:

 

"We will certainly get a third player. This is a fairly normal part of a lot of trades that can happen in season where it just gives us a little more time to scout a select grouping of players to see which one fits best in the construct of this trade. We'll have the remainder of the minor league season to determine who that player is. We certainly expect that it is going to be another very quality prospect in our organization."

[MrTPlush]

All depends on what he means by that. Most here probably instantly think it is another top prospect, but it could be a young guy guy Stearns personally likes.

 

Also would he say the prospect is anything other than a "quality guy"? I hope he thinks anyone he acquires is quality.

[Boomer5]

Transcript of David Stearns answer during tonight's broadcast regarding the PTBNL:

 

"We will certainly get a third player. This is a fairly normal part of a lot of trades that can happen in season where it just gives us a little more time to scout a select grouping of players to see which one fits best in the construct of this trade. We'll have the remainder of the minor league season to determine who that player is. We certainly expect that it is going to be another very quality prospect in our organization."

 

Is that GM speak where everyone is a "very quality prospect" or is this one of their top 30?

 

We will find out soon enough.

[narwhalattack]

All depends on what he means by that. Most here probably instantly think it is another top prospect, but it could be a young guy guy Stearns personally likes.

 

I'd be perfectly fine with a young lottery ticket.

[MrTPlush]

All depends on what he means by that. Most here probably instantly think it is another top prospect, but it could be a young guy guy Stearns personally likes.

 

I'd be perfectly fine with a young lottery ticket.

 

Me too, but I think some people will take this as we are getting another one of their top prospects. That may not be the case.

[StearnsFTW]

I doubt the PTBNL is Mendez because if he was in list there wouldn't even be a need for a PTBNL, the Brewers would've taken him right away instead of waiting till the end of the season.

 

I really hope I'm wrong about this as Mendez the top pitching prospect that I want included in the trade. As of now the trade return for Lucroy/JJ has been disappointing.

 

Eh. Maybe. Just because you and a lot of services think he's the best answer (I agree btw), doesn't mean our front office does.

[WinkelsasVsSoriano]

When does the minor league season end? That's when we'll know, correct?

[MrTPlush]

When does the minor league season end? That's when we'll know, correct?

 

September 5th

 

So we should know within a week by the way Stearns put it.