The Brand New Lucroy Trade Thread

[mattyo]

Evan GrantVerified account

‏@Evan_P_Grant

I would not interpret reported lack of TEX-MIL talk today as end of convo. Think MIL surveying market for ind. deals vs blockbuster with TEX

 

Blockbuster you say?

[3and2Fastball]

Rangers fans on Twitter are freaking out over Gallo for Lucroy straight up. Don't think Lucroy is worth that. Must be casual fans.

[splitterpfj]

I think no matter what happens, a lot of fans will be disappointed for the moment. I say this because the Cleveland deal was not a bad one, yet many people hated it - I also say this because the Cleveland deal wasn't as good as any of us had hoped - we all wanted two players of Mejia's caliber, including a pitcher.

 

Either the Brewers will give more than we hoped to get what we had hoped for, or the Brewers will only get part of what we had hoped for - that's how this looks to me now.

 

At this point, I'm going to be more focused on the quality of the players the Brewers get today over what position they play, or how close to the big leagues they are. If we get zero pitchers, some of you will faint, if we do or do not get Joey Gallo some of you will faint - whatever the combination, I just don't see puppy dogs and sunshine for the lot of us.

 

Get talent. That's it. At this stage of a complete rebuild, just go get the best baseball players you can get, and work from there. There will be plenty of time to shuffle bodies later, and no prospect has ever come with a guarantee of success.

 

Get talent, go from there.

[bill hAll Star]

 

That's true, but Jeffress has almost 2 consistent years under his belt now of being a high end closer. He's starting to establish a bit of a track record. Not a Chapman or Miller obviously, but Jeffress is hardly a guy who should be a blue light special. Especially with years of control left.

 

Jeffress doesn't K 2 batters per inning like Miller and Chapman. That's the difference. Jeffress is a nice 162 game player. These teams, right or wrong, have perceived guys like Miller and Chapman to be massive difference-makers in the playoffs. Jeffress is "just a guy." He's a good one that will be valuable over the course of a season, but there are 30 Jeffresses in the league and another notch of 30 guys that aren't a ton worse. Chapman and Miller belong in a class of maybe 5 relievers.

 

If given the choice of dumping a bunch of prospects for Chapman for 1 year or a "pretty good" reliever like Jeffress at a fairly affordable contract for 3.5 years, most of these title-hungry teams will pay even more for Chapman and try to fill in the void of finding a "solid" reliever next year. Relief pitching is a very year-to-year thing.

 

The issue is that teams aren't willing to pay for the extra control. Most of them don't care enough about the 3 affordable years remaining to give up an extra prospect. They'll pay more for this year or add more to the pot if it's Miller...not Jeffress.

[FVBrewerFan]

Time is now to deal Lucroy and the relievers for sure. Probably Guerra too, although you can't give him up for almost nothing. Then you may as well keep him. But Lucroy will have even less value this winter, and the relievers will have way less value.

 

In my perfect world, they trade these guys today, even if it's a somewhat lesser return:

 

Lucroy

Two of Jeffress/Smith/Thornburg

One of Torres/Knebel/anyone else in BP

One of Guerra/Nelson

 

I still think Sale (and to some extent Moore and other arms) is what's holding up the process. Whoever loses out on Sale will move on to a Lucroy/JJ/Guerra package. Or something close to that.

[MrTPlush]

Astros could be in play.

 

 

10s

Jon Heyman‏ @JonHeyman

astros definitely looking at catching market. havent been tied to lucroy yet. norris, suzuki also out there.

[Warning Track Power]

I think no matter what happens, a lot of fans will be disappointed for the moment. I say this because the Cleveland deal was not a bad one, yet many people hated it - I also say this because the Cleveland deal wasn't as good as any of us had hoped - we all wanted two players of Mejia's caliber, including a pitcher.

 

Either the Brewers will give more than we hoped to get what we had hoped for, or the Brewers will only get part of what we had hoped for - that's how this looks to me now.

 

At this point, I'm going to be more focused on the quality of the players the Brewers get today over what position they play, or how close to the big leagues they are. If we get zero pitchers, some of you will faint, if we do or do not get Joey Gallo some of you will faint - whatever the combination, I just don't see puppy dogs and sunshine for the lot of us.

 

Get talent. That's it. At this stage of a complete rebuild, just go get the best baseball players you can get, and work from there. There will be plenty of time to shuffle bodies later, and no prospect has ever come with a guarantee of success.

 

Get talent, go from there.

I second this. Grabbing talent should be the entire focus.

 

However, I also hated the Cleveland trade and am glad Lucroy rejected it. The issue I had with the Cleveland package was the level at which the other prospects were at. Look I get that they could be waiting to burst into the Top 100 or so prospects, but for a proven commodity like Lucroy, who is in the discussion for best catcher in baseball, I want much more known prospects and ones that have been producing at higher levels of the minors. That is just my opinion.

[adambr2]

 

That's true, but Jeffress has almost 2 consistent years under his belt now of being a high end closer. He's starting to establish a bit of a track record. Not a Chapman or Miller obviously, but Jeffress is hardly a guy who should be a blue light special. Especially with years of control left.

 

Jeffress doesn't K 2 batters per inning like Miller and Chapman. That's the difference. Jeffress is a nice 162 game player. These teams, right or wrong, have perceived guys like Miller and Chapman to be massive difference-makers in the playoffs. Jeffress is "just a guy." He's a good one that will be valuable over the course of a season, but there are 30 Jeffresses in the league and another notch of 30 guys that aren't a ton worse. Chapman and Miller belong in a class of maybe 5 relievers.

 

If given the choice of dumping a bunch of prospects for Chapman for 1 year or a "pretty good" reliever like Jeffress at a fairly affordable contract for 3.5 years, most of these title-hungry teams will pay even more for Chapman and try to fill in the void of finding a "solid" reliever next year. Relief pitching is a very year-to-year thing.

 

The issue is that teams aren't willing to pay for the extra control. Most of them don't care enough about the 3 affordable years remaining to give up an extra prospect. They'll pay more for this year or add more to the pot if it's Miller...not Jeffress.

 

Thornburg seems really underrated. He has a career ERA under 3 and if you look at his numbers this year, they're remarkably similar to Chapman. Now I'm certainly not saying he is comparable, and I realize what you are saying about the value of 'elite' relievers vs. 'very good' relievers. I don't agree with it, I think it's a major market inefficiency, because when you compare all the guys and break down the numbers, the differences aren't significant, but it doesn't matter what I think. It only matters what GMs think.

 

That said, I do think our top relievers have good value; good enough to where one or more will be shipped as a significant package today, hopefully. We'll see.

[A Swing and A Drive]

I think no matter what happens, a lot of fans will be disappointed for the moment. I say this because the Cleveland deal was not a bad one, yet many people hated it - I also say this because the Cleveland deal wasn't as good as any of us had hoped - we all wanted two players of Mejia's caliber, including a pitcher.

 

Either the Brewers will give more than we hoped to get what we had hoped for, or the Brewers will only get part of what we had hoped for - that's how this looks to me now.

 

At this point, I'm going to be more focused on the quality of the players the Brewers get today over what position they play, or how close to the big leagues they are. If we get zero pitchers, some of you will faint, if we do or do not get Joey Gallo some of you will faint - whatever the combination, I just don't see puppy dogs and sunshine for the lot of us.

 

Get talent. That's it. At this stage of a complete rebuild, just go get the best baseball players you can get, and work from there. There will be plenty of time to shuffle bodies later, and no prospect has ever come with a guarantee of success.

 

Get talent, go from there.

 

 

LOVED THIS POST!!!!

 

I want my puppy dogs and sunshine dammit!!!

 

How about:

C Jonathan Lucroy

LHP Will Smith

RHP Junior Guerra

Puppy Dog (they can HAVE Hank the dog)

 

for

 

3B Joey Gallo

RHP Yohander Mendez

RHP Pedro Payano

SS Yenson Yrizarri

Sunshine (we'll swap Wisconsin February for Texas February)

 

Who says no?

[fondybrewfan]

I think something does get done today; it just seems that they have crossed the point of no return with Lucroy and just need to get whatever they can for him. The question just becomes how they maximize the return. Stand alone deal or with a reliever.

 

Its too bad Smith got hurt earlier and hasn't seen his stuff rebound 100% yet. Otherwise I think a Lucroy/Smith package would be a pretty hot commodity.

[monty57]

I'm fine with a return of Gallo, Mendez and a couple high-upside A-ballers. Gallo steps in as our everyday 3B immediately, with Arcia, Hader and maybe Mendez and Phillips arriving next year. We have a lot of young talent that can continue to add players beyond that, with around $80-90M in free cash flow to sign FAs and extend players.

 

We need impact talent at any level, and Gallo provides that (at least according to pretty much everyone who is paid to evaluate these things). Mendez is 21 and is pitching well in AA, so he's looking like a decent bet to be able to cut it at the MLB level in a year or two. When trading someone like Lind, I like getting teenagers out of the top 100 who can become top 100 guys. When trading someone like a Lucroy package, I want a little more star power headlining the deal.

 

Gallo may "bust" to the level of being the "next Branyan," but his chance of MLB success is far above that of most other current MiLB players.

 

Then, hopefully Stearns still has time to trade his other relievers (those not in the Lucroy deal) for some other top 100 guys.

[UMBrewer]

Dodgers returns I would want:

 

Cody Bellinger, Grant Holmes, Austin Barnes (would need to include a pitcher to get Bellinger)

 

Jose De Leon, Holmes, Barnes

 

or Alex Verdugo, Holmes, Barnes

 

As for all of the talk about Lucroy being a Brewer at the end of the day not being the end of the world: No it isnt, but it lessens the return you get on him by at least one really nice prospect.

 

Right now the Brewers can expect one big prospect and a couple of add ons, of which are very nice players down in A Ball with a ton of potential. If they wait until the offseason he still has nice value, and they can still expect at least one big player in return, but nothing extra as far as lottery picks go.

[JohnBriggs12]

I liked the Cleveland package a lot more than a free swinging guy like Gallo and some B level prospects. Talk that the Brewers would have to include one of their relievers just to get Gallo in the deal is nuts. Mejia is a guy much in the mold of Wilson Contreras and would have eventually filled a key position on the field. Yes the prospects were at a lower level but at Mejia looks like a fast riser.

[pogokat]

I think no matter what happens, a lot of fans will be disappointed for the moment. I say this because the Cleveland deal was not a bad one, yet many people hated it - I also say this because the Cleveland deal wasn't as good as any of us had hoped - we all wanted two players of Mejia's caliber, including a pitcher.

 

Either the Brewers will give more than we hoped to get what we had hoped for, or the Brewers will only get part of what we had hoped for - that's how this looks to me now.

 

At this point, I'm going to be more focused on the quality of the players the Brewers get today over what position they play, or how close to the big leagues they are. If we get zero pitchers, some of you will faint, if we do or do not get Joey Gallo some of you will faint - whatever the combination, I just don't see puppy dogs and sunshine for the lot of us.

 

Get talent. That's it. At this stage of a complete rebuild, just go get the best baseball players you can get, and work from there. There will be plenty of time to shuffle bodies later, and no prospect has ever come with a guarantee of success.

 

Get talent, go from there.

 

as an aside to the upcoming deal of Lucroy, we have the trivia of know who we almost got for the second year in a row...that's rare info! and will be fun (hopefully not frustrating) to look at in the years to come.

[jerichoholicninja]

I really have no interest in Gallo but someone posted earlier he immediately becomes our 3B. Does that happen or does he go to AAA? Perez is holding his own so far and I see no reason to burn half a year of service time this year on him.

[Madhawk23]

Any chance that Houston jumps in here at the last minute and makes us an offer we can't refuse:

 

Houston gets Luc and Guerra

 

Brewers get Reed, Musgrove, M. Sierra and Franklin Perez

[splitterpfj]

I really have no interest in Gallo but someone posted earlier he immediately becomes our 3B. Does that happen or does he go to AAA? Perez is holding his own so far and I see no reason to burn half a year of service time this year on him.

 

If Gallo is acquired, and assigned to Colorado Springs .... I want to see video of his longest home run.

 

It's a good question, I don't know if the Brewers would plug him right in or not.

[adambr2]

I really have no interest in Gallo but someone posted earlier he immediately becomes our 3B. Does that happen or does he go to AAA? Perez is holding his own so far and I see no reason to burn half a year of service time this year on him.

 

I would think he would go to Colorado Springs til September.

[mlloyd10]

Any chance that Houston jumps in here at the last minute and makes us an offer we can't refuse:

 

Houston gets Luc and Guerra

 

Brewers get Reed, Musgrove, M. Sierra and Franklin Perez

 

 

Need Martes

[adambr2]

I liked the Cleveland package a lot more than a free swinging guy like Gallo and some B level prospects. Talk that the Brewers would have to include one of their relievers just to get Gallo in the deal is nuts. Mejia is a guy much in the mold of Wilson Contreras and would have eventually filled a key position on the field. Yes the prospects were at a lower level but at Mejia looks like a fast riser.

 

I really don't think 'free swinger' is a fair description of Gallo IMO. He is very patient and gets on base. A high strikeout rate doesn't make a guy a free swinger.

[3and2Fastball]

Even with Brewers goggles on I can see a mega-Grand Canyon sized difference between Chapman & Jeffress, and a pretty huge difference between Miller & Jeffress. Jeffress as an add-on to a Lucroy deal has value but he isn't a huge difference maker to many teams. If I was a contending team GM I would love Jeffress to be a 7th or 8th inning guy, piggybacking relievers likke the Royals did in '14 or '15, but thats just me

[monty57]

I liked the Cleveland package a lot more than a free swinging guy like Gallo and some B level prospects. Talk that the Brewers would have to include one of their relievers just to get Gallo in the deal is nuts. Mejia is a guy much in the mold of Wilson Contreras and would have eventually filled a key position on the field. Yes the prospects were at a lower level but at Mejia looks like a fast riser.

 

I like Mejia as well, and it appears that Stearns really likes him too. But as you said, he "looks like a fast riser." Gallo has already been a fast riser. He's made the jump past AA that a lot of players can't make, and has a .939 OPS in AAA as a 22 year old. If Mejia can continue his rise, then in two years, he will be worth far more than Gallo is currently worth, which is what Stearns is looking at, but his chance of failure is significantly greater than Gallo's, because he still needs to prove himself above A ball. Beyond that, Lucroy nixed that deal, so it's not on the table anymore.

 

In my earlier post, I mentioned Mendez as the second piece, since we're looking at a package deal of Lucroy and a reliever. That's far more than "some B level prospects." This is a guy who would be slightly behind Hader, and has a pretty good shot of becoming a solid piece of our rotation for a long time, and since he's already pitching well at AA, he's not that far off from making his MLB debut. I love the thought of Hader/Mendez in our rotation for six years. Beyond that, sure, go ahead and throw in a couple teenagers that Stearns seems good at identifying.

 

Going back to Mejia, since Stearns seems to covet him, I hope he is still in contact with Cleveland to see if he can work a deal to get him centered around one of our relievers. Miller gets a Top 30 guy and a top 100 guy. Chapman gets a Top 30 guy. Couldn't Jeffress get a Top 100 guy?

[markedman5]

Jerry CrasnickVerified account ‏@jcrasnick 2h2 hours ago

The #Rangers keep plugging away on Lucroy, but #Brewers might have to lower their expectations if something is going to get done today.

[craigharmann]

Any chance that Houston jumps in here at the last minute and makes us an offer we can't refuse:

 

Houston gets Luc and Guerra

 

Brewers get Reed, Musgrove, M. Sierra and Franklin Perez

 

I would love to see it. Musgrove may start tonight because Fister's wife is supposed to have a baby. He's the real deal. Reed is going to be great. That would probably sting the most. But it gets the Astros Luc and not the Rangers, so I'm all over it. I wonder if the Brewers would want Castro or Gattis back as well.

[jerichoholicninja]

Jerry CrasnickVerified account ‏@jcrasnick 2h2 hours ago

The #Rangers keep plugging away on Lucroy, but #Brewers might have to lower their expectations if something is going to get done today.

 

Or, you know, the Rangers could up their offer if they want him today. It takes two to tango and I'm sick of constantly reading in these reports that the Brewers need to accept less. Offer more and you got him.