Lucroy Trades/Proposals (part 4)

[MrTPlush]

AAA players are...proven?

[MilwaukeesBest]

If you do this right...you can be a winner again in 2-3 years. Why wait longer if the possibility exists to do it sooner?? It's about using your assets to acquire the right players that will get you back to where you want to be the soonest..that's the scouts/GM's job to identify those players...but I'd be willing to bet NONE of those players are currently in A. Typically they are in A ball for a reason. if they were THAT good right now, they'd be in AAA or even in the bigs right now..Sure you might get the right guy that's at A right now that will be a total stud in3 years...but good luck identifying that. It's a lot easier to identify the already proven commodities..that's what Luc is...that's what you should get in return. Period.

 

As far as the control mentioned above...who cares about that?? People here but too much stock in that...if they can play...they will be resigned by the Brewers...Attanasio is NOT Bud Selig. People seem to forget that.

 

Lucroy to the Angels for Albert Pujols, Huston Street, and Lincecum.

 

I mean this post/series of posts by BrewCrewin07 is like trying to explain to an older fan who isn't a diehard A) what a rebuild is and B) why the Brewers need to do it. Can't/won't/shouldn't be looking at only AAA or major leaguers because you're shooting yourself in the foot in terms of talent level coming back. "Good luck identifying that" referring to Single-A recruiting is exactly what their job is and we've seen that it almost seems to be Sterns & Co. forte. He's good, probably a little better than us keyboard warriors at it. Also if a team half rebuilds and signs a bunch of players on the market, pretty soon those FA signings expire and you're left right back to where you were in the first place, with a poor system with little to no major league talent.

 

But maybe small market Milwaukee can make the Los Angeles trade and sign those three to long term contracts, you know, with their unlimited money.

[FVBrewerFan]

Then you're going to have to settle for a back-of-the-rotation starter or average starting position player. The advantage of low-minors players is you get potential superstars.

 

 

 

That is kind of the point of the rebuild. You're trading away proven commodities for potential superstars. Deadline deals between buyers and sellers are commodity for prospect deals, not commodity for commodity. Rebuilding clubs aren't really in the business of trying to acquire proven commodities and contenders aren't really in the business of trading them.

 

And a few top 51-100 minors players, at any level in the minors, is worth way, way more than a comp pick.

 

IF IF IF they realize that potential...that's the key...Look at Mat Gamel, look at several other minor league ball players(especially for the Brewers), that had "star" potential, that flamed out. You get 3 minor league players say ranked 96-99...now what happens if NONE of them pan out?? You are right back to square 1 and have to start all over again. Give me two top 25-50 prospects and I will bet all of Donald Trump's $$ that the odds of one of them working out to be a superstar are better than the odds that any of the 3 ranked 96-99 will.

 

Wouldn't Gamel be the exact type of AAA proven prospect you're saying you want?

[paul253]

There's no guarantee anyone will reach their ceiling, Low A ball or AAA. I don't particularly care if we get all low A guys, two AAA ballers or some combination. I just want the best deal. If we get all low A ball players were taking a bigger risk but we'll also probably get more guys. If we get advanced players the risk isn't as high but we aren't going to get the quantity. If it's either or I'd prefer low A ballers, particularly pitchers, because I don't see us being serious contenders for 2-3 years anyway, which would put all these guys close to the majors. I've started to accept the fact that we aren't going to get the TOR we desperately need (which makes me even more frustrated about passing on potential TOR starters this past draft) so I am now hoping for highest ceiling. Like I said I don't particularly care if that is A ball or AAA ball players.

[JosephC]

1B-Bobby Bradley, RHP-Brady Aiken, RHP-Mike Clevinger (I'd prefer Clevinger)

LHP-Rob Kaminsky OR LHP-Juan Hillman (I'd prefer Kaminsky)

 

Can I ask why you prefer the lower ceiling players in these two spots? Kaminsky is likely a BOR starter and Clevinger is most likely a MOR type guy while Aiken has ace potential, Bradley has middle of the order power bat potential and Hillman is a "get him before he blows up" type prospect. We have more than enough Kaminsky and Clevinger types in this system already. Honestly, I don't see any major difference is between Zach Davies and those two and we got Davies for 3 months of Gerardo Parra, not 1.5 years of Jonathan Lucroy. I mean, Kaminsky got traded straight up for Brandon Moss just last year.

 

I have no problem taking lower ceiling players if the mix is right. I'd tend to disagree with that assessment of Clevinger. He's a big guy, hard thrower, a couple plus pitches and two more that are close. Dismissed as a high ceiling guy largely because of his age (25), but an elbow injury set him back and it seems he's just starting to refine those secondary pitches now. Crapped out a brief MLB appearance this year but his AAA and AA stats from 2015 and 2016 look promising. He wasn't a top 100 guy at the beginning of the year but Baseball America has him at #71 on their midseason ranking. Would agree that Kaminsky is a low ceiling guy, but he has a solid makeup and I think he can stick on an MLB roster. Remember the Brewers would land McKenzie as part of this package and I like the combination of the three. It's nice to grab some of those young lottery ticket types, but it's also smart to invest in some of those solid guys who are a little further along too.

[Austin Tatious]

I hope we don't get Clevinger. He'd be about 30 by the time we'd be ready to compete. Let the Tribe keep him so they can feel better about dealing McKenzie and Hillman to Milwaukee.

[mattyo]

I hope we don't get Clevinger. He'd be about 30 by the time we'd be ready to compete. Let the Tribe keep him so they can feel better about dealing McKenzie and Hillman to Milwaukee.

 

Couldnt agree more. Of anyone in their top 10 prospects, Clevinger is the one I want the least.

[dacrew101]

Id take Clevinger as a 2nd piece, potential to play well and flip for more value in a year or two..

[dacrew101]

So a Braves scout, Ted Simmons is watching the Brewers game. Not sure if it means much for trade deadline reasons though, Braves are in last place. It would be short sighted for them to trade for lucroy

[DougJonesChangeUp]

That would point to a winter meeting trade.

[molitor fan]

The Indians game tonight makes me think trade with them is more likely....Perez, who is hitting .048 was pinch hit for in late inning as part of unwieldy double switch, then the .550 ish OPS Giminez brought in vs. Nats....

 

That level of overt weakness vs a good club is the type of thing that spurs a deal

[BallFour]

If you are the Braves and you do plan on having a Padre or Marlin spending spree off-season to open up thee new ball park. Lucroy would make sense because they definitely aren't getting a shot at him this off-season if he goes to a contender this next week.

 

A. It only helps us if they really are interested

B. I would find it absolutely hilarious for him to go the Braves after all of his public outcry to play for a contender

[FVBrewerFan]

If you are the Braves and you do plan on having a Padre or Marlin spending spree off-season to open up thee new ball park. Lucroy would make sense because they definitely aren't getting a shot at him this off-season if he goes to a contender this next week.

 

A. It only helps us if they really are interested

B. I would find it absolutely hilarious for him to go the Braves after all of his public outcry to play for a contender

 

Or the Braves could be scouting any of the other 24 Brewers who are available now or off-season for the right price. Want impact players for the new ballpark? How about Braun?

[brewcrewdue80]

So a Braves scout, Ted Simmons is watching the Brewers game. Not sure if it means much for trade deadline reasons though, Braves are in last place. It would be short sighted for them to trade for lucroy

 

Remember how clever the Braves have been in trades. 3 team trade potential? Hernan Perez comes to mind but Elmore or Broxton too. Oh, and then there's Matt Garza.

 

 

As to AAA guys or Single A. It's about ceilings. Clevinger and Sheffield don't rate as a high ceiling but I believe the floors get them a top 100 prospect ranking. I feel a lot of rankings when you're in the 60s-100 will include guys like a Clevinger who are close to graduating to MLB level. Fill out your top 100 with about 10-15 of those guys and as they graduate what you've created is the extra time to see guys you weren't sure about ranking in top 100 in A ball. When Clevinger pitches enough to be removed from the top 100, you can take the best thought guy of your 101-110 and say he's #100 now.

When you look at grades within the rankings generally you see 40-100 looking the exact same, give or take a tool or two that separates. A power grade of 60 vs 50 but run or field of 45-50 vs 60.

Clevinger according to MLB has a 60FB 55Slider 45 curve/Change 50 Control. 50 Overall. Medeiros/Ponce/Kirby have higher grades and Diplan/D Williams have a similar grading readout.

But, Clevinger is 25years old vs the above still having some projection coming vs Clevinger already topped out.

 

And that's your difference. McKenzie with his age and frame can still grow 1-4MPH on his FB taking him from a 60 grade to a 65 or even 70grade. Improves any bit on his secondary offerings and he's hitting 60 on those whereas Clevinger never touches 60.

Clevinger is a no thank you for that reason. And why you don't necessarily trade for a AAA/already ML player when there's higher potential to be had.

 

You find your close to the Bigs players when you're finding a guy who's blocked. Like Vogelbach was when the Cubs traded him away. But when it comes to pitching, you're going to be hard pressed to find a blocked Pitcher. If he's worthy of a Playoff run team he'll be pitching for them and helping. Clevinger is that type unless he's traded away for a veteran SP more ready for such. Cleveland isn't in that boat, but Clevinger is an injury away from helping and thus less likely to be had in trade for Lucroy's services.

 

With position players I can agree there's better AA/AAA to acquire having a known. But with Pitchers, I'd look for ceiling if possible. It's why I want Frazier over Zimmer and McKenzie over Clevinger. Zimmer reads more of a CF profile whereas Frazier gives off a Corner OF profile. We have Phillips as the future CF. We haven't figured out the next corner OF high in potential. Santana hopefully recovers. But mostly lacking a true hitting with power Corner bat amongst the top of the Brewers OFs.

[HighHeat19]

Hate to play Debbie Downer here, but the Brewers farm is not as good as sports writers make it out to be. The Brewers still need an influx of talent all across the spectrum. The Brewers need to trade Lucroy soon. Ticket sales will not change whether he is here or not. Wins will be hardly affected. And quite frankly, I don't want anyone here especially if they don't want to be here. The biggest contribution Lucroy will make will be the value he brings back in a trade.

 

However, I get the feeling Stearns is trying to pinch out every last penny/prospect he can get. And this will come right down to Monday's wire.

[LouisEly]

It takes two to tango. It's very likely that other teams are low-balling Stearns now trying to see if he'll budge (we saw that supposedly with the Mets). Negotiations 101. Most teams that need a catcher have other needs too, and they are trying to get the best value to shore up any of their needs. Cleveland is pretty well-defined, but they do need LHRP too.

[trwi7]

It takes two to tango. It's very likely that other teams are low-balling Stearns now trying to see if he'll budge (we saw that supposedly with the Mets).

 

The Mets offer wasn't even low-balling. It was embarrassing.

[trwi7]

I don't get why Frazier and maybe Zimmer are untouchable for the Indians too. I mean, for a reliever, I get that but for an all-star catcher? Unless they think Brantley won't be the same player after his injury. Brantley/Naquin/Frazier or Zimmer and then DH Chisenhall I guess?

[HighHeat19]

The Mets should have to forfeit their first round pick next year for making such an asinine offer.

[DougJonesChangeUp]

Indians ownership can't splurge in free agency. Probably why they will be hard to get prospects from. We're dealing with the opposite of the cubs here in the Indians.

[HighHeat19]

Breaking News!!! Rangers no longer interested in Lucroy!!! Chirinos has gone 1 for 3 and now is hitting .200. Stay tuned for updates!!!

[MilwaukeeBeers]

Hate to play Debbie Downer here, but the Brewers farm is not as good as sports writers make it out to be. The Brewers still need an influx of talent all across the spectrum. The Brewers need to trade Lucroy soon. Ticket sales will not change whether he is here or not. Wins will be hardly affected. And quite frankly, I don't want anyone here especially if they don't want to be here. The biggest contribution Lucroy will make will be the value he brings back in a trade.

 

However, I get the feeling Stearns is trying to pinch out every last penny/prospect he can get. And this will come right down to Monday's wire.

Strongly disagree, while no prospect is lighting it up statistically that doesn't mean there isn't a ton of potential.

[adambr2]

Theoretically, if the Braves interest in Lucroy is strong, they could deal Lucroy to the Braves in August if nothing got done by the 1st. Since the Braves have the worst record in the NL, they'd automatically have waiver priority if they put in a claim on Lucroy. Of course, this would limit our return to players not on Atlanta's 40 man, but we'd probably be targeting lower level players like that anyway who are not close to MLB-ready or on the 40 man yet.

 

I find this to be a pretty highly unlikely scenario since the Braves would have most of the leverage, being the only team we could negotiate with, but knowing they'd have to compete with every other team in the offseason might motivate the Braves to make a legitimate offer. Still unlikely, but figured I'd throw it out there.

[BallFour]

Indians ownership can't splurge in free agency. Probably why they will be hard to get prospects from. We're dealing with the opposite of the cubs here in the Indians.

 

Which is exactly why they should trade for Lucroy, because he is an immediate upgrade and cheap next year.

[trwi7]

Hate to play Debbie Downer here, but the Brewers farm is not as good as sports writers make it out to be. The Brewers still need an influx of talent all across the spectrum. The Brewers need to trade Lucroy soon. Ticket sales will not change whether he is here or not. Wins will be hardly affected. And quite frankly, I don't want anyone here especially if they don't want to be here. The biggest contribution Lucroy will make will be the value he brings back in a trade.

 

However, I get the feeling Stearns is trying to pinch out every last penny/prospect he can get. And this will come right down to Monday's wire.

Strongly disagree, while no prospect is lighting it up statistically that doesn't mean there isn't a ton of potential.

 

There's potential but it's hard to disagree with what he's saying. Look at our top 2 prospects coming into the year. Arcia is struggling to post a .700 OPS while playing half his games in Colorado Springs. Phillips is trying to get his average to .230 and is striking out 37% of the time in AA.

 

Really, the only prospects in our top 10 that are meeting or exceeding expectations so far this year are Hader and then maybe Clark and Ponce. That's not good.