Lucroy Trades/Proposals (part 4)

[UMBrewer]

We can rule out those first 4 prospects. not happening..

 

Gallo has a very little shot too but it could maybe happen

 

Not only that, but the value being given up in the prospect would not be equal to Lucroy's value. You would have to package Jeffress or Smith just to get one of those guys alone.

 

I would put the value of a top 10 hitting prospect in the $60 million range, and I had previously put Lucroy's value at around $48 million.

[MrTPlush]

Have to think this is likely the end of the line for Lucroy. If a significant package is on the table risking injury at this point is playing with fire. I would expect talks to really pick up now since he isn't slated to play till tomorrow night. If I am the Brewers and a deal is not struck by tomorrow's game he should continue to sit.

[tmwiese55]

Well cubs just gave a guy ranked in the mid 20s, and several more for 30ish innings of a pitcher. Wouldn't 1.5 years of Luc and + a couple years of Smith seem to warrant more?

 

I don't know, I just see all these other teams getting these highly ranked prospects for much less (not saying Chapman sucks) and everyone goes 'holy cow, what an overpay' type reactions. But when it comes to our guy who is the #2 catcher in baseball controlled for 1.5 years at almost no cost and we're told he doesn't warrant anything.

[monty57]

We can rule out those first 4 prospects. not happening..

 

Gallo has a very little shot too but it could maybe happen

 

The Yankees got Torres, MLB.com's #26 prospect, for half a season of Chapman. The Royals are asking for Giolito for Wade Davis. At this point, I wouldn't say a definitive "not happening" to any prospects being traded for good MLB talent. Prospects are not as highly regarded in today's market as they were a few seasons ago.

[Manty Brewer Fan]

I have to agree with the seller's market that is set, I think we will all be surprised in how much Lucroy (plus a RP???) brings back. I think every prospect is open for discussion at this point.

[dacrew101]

We can rule out those first 4 prospects. not happening..

 

Gallo has a very little shot too but it could maybe happen

 

The Yankees got Torres, MLB.com's #26 prospect, for half a season of Chapman. The Royals are asking for Giolito for Wade Davis. At this point, I wouldn't say a definitive "not happening" to any prospects being traded for good MLB talent. Prospects are not as highly regarded in today's market as they were a few seasons ago.

 

Pitching is in high demand. Not position players.. There is a limited market for catchers especially.

[MKE81]

We can rule out those first 4 prospects. not happening..

 

Gallo has a very little shot too but it could maybe happen

 

The Yankees got Torres, MLB.com's #26 prospect, for half a season of Chapman. The Royals are asking for Giolito for Wade Davis. At this point, I wouldn't say a definitive "not happening" to any prospects being traded for good MLB talent. Prospects are not as highly regarded in today's market as they were a few seasons ago.

 

I understand what you're saying but the Cubs can afford to give up Torres for Chapman given their current young talent everywhere in the field in combination with their still good system. The Indians will have to replace half their position players within the next couple years.

[Boomer5]

Luc is an all star catcher with 1.5 years of cheap control. Don't sell that short.

 

If 30 innings of Chapman is worth the Cubs number 1, Luc is worth that and more.

[dacrew101]

Luc is an all star catcher with 1.5 years of cheap control. Don't sell that short.

 

If 30 innings of Chapman is worth the Cubs number 1, Luc is worth that and more.

 

Didn't say he wasn't worth more. But dream on if you think you can get a top 10 overall prospect for him

[UMBrewer]

We can rule out those first 4 prospects. not happening..

 

Gallo has a very little shot too but it could maybe happen

 

The Yankees got Torres, MLB.com's #26 prospect, for half a season of Chapman. The Royals are asking for Giolito for Wade Davis. At this point, I wouldn't say a definitive "not happening" to any prospects being traded for good MLB talent. Prospects are not as highly regarded in today's market as they were a few seasons ago.

 

There is also the issue of immediacy to win a pennant for some teams. The cubs have a perfect storm brewing on the MLB roster that made Torres expendable, and in return they get the best closer in the game to lock down wins for them. And you have an organization that can see a World Series in the horizon and they havent been in that spot for over 100 years.

 

Plus, they are a large market team that can spend on talent acquisition, so some of the prospects given the situation mentioned above, made Torres a guy on the move as well.

 

If you take the immediacy issue, only the Indians seem most logical, but they are small market and value their prospects more.

 

The Chapman trade is not the model nor was it really rational from a numbers point of view. We shouldnt expect the same with the Lucroy trade.

[A Swing and A Drive]

My guess is that either Joey Gallo or Clint Frazier are the highest ranked prospects the Brewers could get back in a Lucroy deal.

 

With that said I'd rather have an Indians deeper package without Frazier or Zimmer.

 

1b Bobby Bradley

C Francisco Mejia

LHP Brady Aiken

RHP Triston Mckenzie

LHP Juan Hillman

 

I think we will get 3 of these players for Lucroy, possibly 4-5 of them if Will Smith is included.

[MKE81]

Luc is an all star catcher with 1.5 years of cheap control. Don't sell that short.

 

If 30 innings of Chapman is worth the Cubs number 1, Luc is worth that and more.

 

I don't think anybody is selling his skill set/control short. The Cubs trading away a top prospect isn't a logical comparison for Lucroy as there are many variables in play that result in them losing their top prospect without affecting their ability to compete for a WS now and over the next 5yrs. That info matters.

[Austin Tatious]

I'm not buying the 30 innings spin. It sounds like nice slogan, but the reality is those can be "win or lose" innings. It's not the number of the innings but the criticality of the input he makes. No one wants any part of Chapman in the eighth or ninth. His overall effect on an outcome of a game can be tremendous. The opposition better beat the Cubs by the 7th because it's lights out if Chapman strolls out there, and what's worse is, he knows it, the audience knows it, and the batter knows it. Lucroy did beat him a couple of years ago, but it's not a frequent occurrence. I think Luc got a changeup or other off speed offering and destroyed it. When he's throwing gas, forget about it.

 

I agree that Brewers trade candidates will have value, it's just the the 30 inning label isn't why I'm persuaded.

[tmwiese55]

Right, so you can find excuses why it made sense. You can do the same thing for Lucroy and say Cle. Cleveland, has the lowest attendance in baseball so should be desperate to put a charge in it and really get going, get the fans involved, C position is batting like .111 for them. Also, haven't won a WS in forever, rest of central is weak right now. Lucroy, #2 catcher in baseball cost controlled for 1.5 years (good for small market) and good chance he'd be ok with an extension there. Throw in one of our two top level relievers who are also cost controlled for several more years and you have a long term fit. But yea, we shouldn't expect much back...

[Jose Cardenal1]

Didn't see this before. In Jon Heyman's article today he mentions again the Brewers refusal of the Mets offer of d'Arnaud. Except he has a quote from someone in the Brewers "weve been offered better Catchers".

 

Has to be Mejia right?

[dacrew101]

Right, so you can find excuses why it made sense. You can do the same thing for Lucroy and say Cle. Cleveland, has the lowest attendance in baseball so should be desperate to put a charge in it and really get going, get the fans involved, C position is batting like .111 for them. Also, haven't won a WS in forever, rest of central is weak right now. Lucroy, #2 catcher in baseball cost controlled for 1.5 years (good for small market) and good chance he'd be ok with an extension there. Throw in one of our two top level relievers who are also cost controlled for several more years and you have a long term fit. But yea, we shouldn't expect much back...

 

No one is saying not to expect much back, just not these top 10 prospects ..

[Boomer5]

Luc is an all star catcher with 1.5 years of cheap control. Don't sell that short.

 

If 30 innings of Chapman is worth the Cubs number 1, Luc is worth that and more.

 

I don't think anybody is selling his skill set/control short. The Cubs trading away a top prospect isn't a logical comparison for Lucroy as there are many variables in play that result in them losing their top prospect without affecting their ability to compete for a WS now and over the next 5yrs. That info matters.

 

Sure it does. I agree.

 

But all the teams we are talking about for 55 pages are in the race for the WS and none of them are getting contribution from those prospects to this point. Adding Luc is a net positive to their WS hopes and takes nothing away from their MLB roster.

 

Of all the teams that could afford to lose a blue chip prospect, the Red Sox are best set up to replace their projected production with a veteran FA in the next few years. They also have a GM that doesn't value prospects as highly as others. Yes Benintendi would be a huge price but you're talking about a team that could realistically sign Harper when he is a FA.

 

The Indians have the best depth in their farm and the biggest need to get to the WS for their fanbase.

 

Who knows what we will get, but based on all of the frustrated GM quotes we have seen with the Luc discussions, it isn't because he is demanding their version of Flores or Rijo.

[JDBrewCrew]

Jerry Crasnick ‏@jcrasnick 2m2 minutes ago

The #Astros do not appear to be in the mix for Jonathan Lucroy. Their reported pursuit was overblown, according to one source.

[dacrew101]

Not surprised about the Astros, Gattis is giving them power at that spot and I don't think they want to trade with the Brewers for awhile

[bill hAll Star]

Adding Luc is a net positive to their WS hopes and takes nothing away from their MLB roster.

 

He's cooled off recently, but I'm not sure Lucroy is a major upgrade from Willson Contreras.

[monty57]

We can rule out those first 4 prospects. not happening..

 

Gallo has a very little shot too but it could maybe happen

 

The Yankees got Torres, MLB.com's #26 prospect, for half a season of Chapman. The Royals are asking for Giolito for Wade Davis. At this point, I wouldn't say a definitive "not happening" to any prospects being traded for good MLB talent. Prospects are not as highly regarded in today's market as they were a few seasons ago.

 

Pitching is in high demand. Not position players.. There is a limited market for catchers especially.

 

Relief pitching is probably at an all-time high, but what appears to have lost it's luster over this season and last are prospects, which is happening right at the perfect time for the Brewers.

 

Lucroy is worth more than a closer... any closer, even in this market. He has a .300/.361/.486/.848 stat line, which would play at any position, and he plays the most demanding position in baseball, and plays it very well. That doesn't mean he will match up with every team, but for the teams he matches up with, he will demand a king's ransom.

 

A few years ago, trading a top 10 prospect was seemingly taboo, as they were the hottest commodity around. That's not the case today, and someone will part with a very good player. Maybe it won't be someone in the "top 10" lists, but I wouldn't absolutely discard anyone in today's market. I like prospects as much as anyone, and hope the Brewers can stockpile a lot of them, but someone in the majors who has always played at an All Star level and is currently playing near an MVP level, with one of the most team-friendly contracts in baseball, who has shown willingness to sign an extension is worth more than someone who may someday be a good MLB player.

 

If a "top 10" guy is in the mix, the Brewers will also receive another prospect or two. If a "top 10" guy is not in the mix, there will be 3-4 guys in the "top 100" range, with the best being in the top 50.

 

Note that there is a difference between a normal "top 10 guy" and "the next Trout/Harper/Strasburg." Those guys are generational phenoms, and are not the normal case for "top 10" prospects. I don't think there are any generational phenoms in the minors right now. Maybe I'm wrong, and if I am, I hope the Brewers get him :-)

[tmwiese55]

Very good post Monty.

[Boomer5]

Wasn't Addison Russell a top ten when he was traded?

[And That]

Wasn't Addison Russell a top ten when he was traded?

At the time, borderline. He was #14, #12, and #7 on BA's, MLB's, and BP's prospect lists, respectively entering the 2014 season. Since he was traded midseason he might have been a bit higher by that point.

[FVBrewerFan]

Monty makes a great point. "Top 10" doesn't really mean anything, it changes year to year. Big difference between trading a true future franchise player, and some guy listed at #5, just because he was the 5th best prospect THIS year, back in March. There's a lot of guys like Arcia. A really good prospect, but not a dominant starting pitcher or 5 plus tool position player.