Keep compensation picks around for one more year

[colbyjack]

With the recent discussion of Carlos Lee, whether he should be traded now or at the deadline, allowed to leave as a FA next or signed to an extension, I wanted to point out that next year's offseason could bring the Brewers' a few compensation picks in return. Carlos Lee almost certainly would be a Type A FA, regardless of how productive he is according to OPS. If he duplicates his '05 season, that is almost a lock, and given the need for slugging outfielders, particularly right-handed hitters, it also seems certain that he would be signed by another team and would bring the Brewers two extra, early picks in return for the 2007 draft.

 

While I'm not entirely certain of Doug Davis' eligilibility to become a free agent given his service time, his contract also runs up at the end of next season. While I don't want to see Davis go anywhere given his effectiveness the past two years, the acquisition of Zach Jackson and the progression of other prospects such as Dana Eveland, Dennis Sarfate, Ben Hendrickson and Manny Parra may make Davis expendable. If Davis were to become a free agent next year, he would also would be a Type A free agent if he can come close to duplicating his success from the past two year, and like Lee would bring two additional, early draft picks in return.

 

I must add that I think Davis may have one more year of arbitration eligibility remaining, which would obviously make his inclusion a moot point.

 

Again, I'm not trying to determine whether or not we should keep these players, just pointing out that while the Brewers' roster could get very expensive in a hurry given the progression of certain players, continuing to have a strong farm system will continue to be very important. Not only in replacing free agents to be, but by also cultivating extra, early draft picks in the process as teams like the A's and Braves do almost each and every year.

[1e Corbeau]

Great point, Colby.

 

The possibility of getting picks for Lee came up after the Overbay trade in the trade forum. I think this route could make a lot of sense next year for the Brewers, as, unless DM trades him this offseason, we'd have to move Lee at the deadline. If we were in the WC race--and one of our AAA OFers has not asserted themselves at the big league level--I don't think we would move Lee. Plus, we all know DM's stance on trading position players mid-season.

 

Patrick also makes a great point about the A's and Braves and how they remain competitive. I'd much rather trade a player in order to grab someone else's draft picks who've had two to four year's professional track record, but, as mentioned above, that isn't always going to be the case.

 

I have to admit, realizing that DD might be too expensive makes me very sad and disappointed in the fiscal reality of MLB. Pointing out that we have Eveland, Parra, and Zach Jack in the pipeline, however, makes me believe in Team Canada much more. DM's trades have, at least, put us in a position to realisitically prepare for the departure of post-arby players. I'd trade DD before he walks, though, as I think DM would get a ludicrous return (i.e. Top Prospect) for him.

 

I don't like the compensatory draft pick system, as I think it rewards the big market clubs for inflating the market through free agency, and then letting those players walk when they became insanely overvalued. The only positive, IMO, are that it gives those teams the top-tier prospects that they trade to lower-market teams and it appears the Brewers will reap the benefit in the near future.

[colbyjack]

1e Corbeau, your post on the minor league forum (we seem to be encouraging one another http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif ) prompted me to think about what people would want from the first-round pick in an ideal situation. While my initial reaction is pitching, the Brewers have actually done a decent job building depth in later rounds, through the DFE process, and via trades (Capuano, Jackson). And since next year's draft favors pitching, it may be wise to go with that strength.

 

However, since the team is moving towards seemingly better times, do you draft for more of a specific need (again, in an ideal situation)? Do you target a catcher that doesn't profile to be a star but could be a solid starter for several years? How about a leadoff hitter/centerfielder, as suggested with someone like Shane Robinson or Colin Curtis? Do you maybe even look at a college closer, hoping to give the bullpen a dominant arm seemingly a lot quicker than any other player could contribute? All of these positions may not have the high ceiling that scouting directors typically look for in the first-round, but they would likely be taken with the idea that they would be safer bets to contribute and would be able to do so quicker than most.

 

Basically, has the team's success changed how you view scouting and player development and should it? To me, the Brewers seemed to take that approach last year with Braun, as they seemed intent to take a 3B no matter what (it was a good year to do so, given the depth at the position, and keep in mind that they also asked Troy Tulowitzki if he was willing to move to 3B if the Brewers were to draft him).

[1e Corbeau]

I have a hard time arguing against the "best player available" strategy. As you noted, we've had success acquiring pitching *depth*--not necessarily the huge upside/potential players. And while I agree that we seemed intent to select a third baseman last year, I'd also have to argue that (at least after the immediate, short term results) Braun was a solid pick, regardless of his college position or where he projects to play in the majors (we've all heard the CF opinion).

 

I think that the strategy does change as the team's situation changes--adaptability is also part of success. A team like the Royals should be taking the best available (not "most affordable" but that's another topic...). I can also understand why a team with a large amount of financial resources would pick for need, too, IF they think that player can advance *very* quickly. Even then, they can fill a need via free agency with their money and will always need ammo for the July rent-a-player exchange.

 

In general, I don't think that straying from best player is good for anyone, long term. It certainly does help teams who adhere to the strategy when another team reaches, though. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

 

As for the crew, I think they're in a position to reach about 15 spots on the overall potential scale, if and only if there is a player who can fill a need and will advance quickly. Otherwise, you take the most valuable player (i.e. best major league probable success). In other words, I don't think the crew should draft for need, as the previous criteria would be hard to meet, IMO.

 

And thanks for the encouragement and the great player profiles. At this point, I'm really liking the college pitching available. I'm looking forward to the high schoolers, too, though, before I make any best or suggestions.

[SoCalBrewfan]

One thing we have to keep in mind is that we won't be picking in the top 5 again for a while. (Or so I hope.) I think that when you get to the middle of the first round through the supplemental picks, the choices are much less clear cut. Sure, sometimes a Kazmir or Drew or Weaver type will slip, but more often you have a situation where there are a number of players with different sets of strengths and weaknesses, risks and rewards. To me, that's where different draft philosophies really play out...the Dodgers and Braves stock up on talented high-ceiling prepsters who have fallen, the Moneyball types sign college hitters and pitchers, etc. Some of the Braves' top prospects (Francoeur, Salty etc) have come from that part of the draft, for example. I'd love to see what Jack Z could do with some supplemental picks...

 

Regarding Davis, Cot's baseball contracts had him with 3 yrs 138 days service time before 2005...so I think that indicates he's got one more arbitration year in 2007.

[DHonks]

It'd be awefully interesting, but suppose:

 

-Davis has another solid year of 10-15 wins, ERA of 4.20 or lower, 200+ IP

-Lee goes out, hits .285+ with 35 homers and 120 rbi

-Hendrickson, Sarfate, Evelend, Gallardo, Rogers, Dillard, Wahpepah, etc have solid-to-good campaigns

-Hart hits .275 with 15 homers in 350 at bats as a supersub

-Cruz hits .290+ with 25+ homers in AAA.

-Brewers are in contention until September

 

They can't get fair value for their potential free agents at this point (assuming Davis can be a free agent). So do they make a strong push to resign Davis and Lee, know that they'll command around $7-8 and $8-10 million, respectively? At the same time, they could let them walk and find themselves with at least 1 first rounder, 2 supplemental picks, a second rounder, and then 2 1st/2nd rounders. For the Crew, that could mean they could go a number of ways. They could find a bunch of Will Inman types, and buy them out of going to college. They could take a college reliever. They could simply take the best player available. Or it's even arguable that they could do a number of things, including taking some best athletes and some best players.

[reillymcshane]

DHonks, I think if Hart hit 15 HR and .275 the club would be content to let Lee walk, feeling Hart could sufficiently take over for him (at 1/30 of the price).

 

And if Lee hits 285+ with 35 homers and 120 rbi, he's probably looking at $10+ million/year. All it takes is one team to get crazy with him. Still, I think a lot depends on how Hart, and perhaps Cruz, play this year. However, if Hart and Cruz look overmatched in the bigs, they might be forced to sign Lee.

[clancyphile]

Davis isn't a FA until after 2007.

 

So, the situation the Crew will hopefully be looking at would be:

 

* Lee has a huge year (35+ HR, 120+ RBI)

* Hart producing solid numbers (12-15 HR in 300 AB), with Cruz hitting 25 HR in AAA.

* Davis and Capuano each notching 12-15 wins (closer to 15) and a sub-4.00 ERA

* Dillard, Eveland, Sarfate, Jackson and Hendrickson all having solid seasons in AA/AAA, with Rogers, Gallandro, Wahpepah, and Inman staying healthy.

* Helling/Bush pitching well enough in the 5th spot of the rotation to win 12 games.

* Tomo Ohka wins 12 games and posts a 4.00 ERA.

 

At this point, the Crew can let Lee and Ohka walk, and get the 1st/2nd rounder and the supplemental for each.

 

At that point, I think a mix would be appropriate. First, the Crew gets the best player available with the first of their picks. Then the second goes for the best player available at a position of need (say, catcher). The third can go for a college starter/reliever. Then go for a best player available, and help where the system needs depth (if Ohka is a Type A free agent).

 

If the minor-league players stay healthy and post solid numbers, then the Brewers will have the enviable dilemma of having to choose between the establish #2/#3 combo of Davis and Capauno, or going with promising young arms.