MLB.com Updated Prospect Rankings (Mid-Season 2016)

[MrTPlush]

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=mil

 

 

Brewers have 5 prospects within the Top 100. No surprises

 

My thoughts:

•Surprised where Gilbert Lara is ranked.

•Josh Hader should higher on the Top 100 list.

•Having guys like Gatewood/Kirby near #20 just shows the depth we have.

[Mass Haas]

Still so frustrating we can't see earlier 2016 versions of this list. Tons of new names this time around, and unless we log the exact current 30 each update here, we're not sure exactly what the movement was since their last update.

[Mass Haas]

Still so frustrating we can't see earlier 2016 versions of this list. Tons of new names this time around, and unless we log the exact current 30 each update here, we're not sure exactly what the movement was since their last update.

 

Looks like Adam Rygg saved us this grief, thanks, @BrewerNation.

[fondybrewfan]

Exciting to see 5 guys on the list. Hopefully about 9 months from now we have a couple more. Maybe a couple guys the Brewers already have (Woodruff & Erceg) and maybe a couple guys that we will trade for either now or in the offseason.

 

Surprised to see so many new draftees on the list. I thought the more seasoned guys got the benefit of the doubt on these lists.

[Outlander]

It looks like Marcos Diplan had the largest jump going from 19 to 9, thought Woodruff might move up more and is currently sitting at 22. The largest drop belonged to Clint Coulter going from 13 to 29 and Adrian Houser going from 17 to out.

[And That]

For those people bemoaning the performances in the Brewers' minor league system this year, I'm going to throw this out there.

 

Systems with at least 16 players with an overall scouting grade of 50 or better, with 50 equating to a 2 WAR average major league regular:

 

Padres (17)

Brewers (16)

Yankees (16)

 

That's it.

 

The Yankees only just got to 16 thanks to the Chapman trade, and the Brewers are likely to surpass the Padres by the end of the trading deadline.

 

So while the Brewers' top end guys maybe haven't been performing as well as hoped, the system continues to boast arguably the most impressive MLB-caliber depth in all of baseball. There's also reason to believe some of those 50 guys could improve to 55 or 60 over time (with some of them falling off). I'm still extremely bullish on the farm system.

[homer]

When Peralta and Woodruff are hanging around the #20 mark you probably feel pretty good about your depth. Not to mention we haven't even seen Kirby yet and he's listed on there as well.

[madbad2000]

For those people bemoaning the performances in the Brewers' minor league system this year, I'm going to throw this out there.

 

Systems with at least 16 players with an overall scouting grade of 50 or better, with 50 equating to a 2 WAR average major league regular:

 

Padres (17)

Brewers (16)

Yankees (16)

 

That's it.

 

The Yankees only just got to 16 thanks to the Chapman trade, and the Brewers are likely to surpass the Padres by the end of the trading deadline.

 

So while the Brewers' top end guys maybe haven't been performing as well as hoped, the system continues to boast arguably the most impressive MLB-caliber depth in all of baseball. There's also reason to believe some of those 50 guys could improve to 55 or 60 over time (with some of them falling off). I'm still extremely bullish on the farm system.

 

 

Thanks for sharing Toby. A nice perspective to keep in mind.

[Noche]

For those people bemoaning the performances in the Brewers' minor league system this year, I'm going to throw this out there.

 

Systems with at least 16 players with an overall scouting grade of 50 or better, with 50 equating to a 2 WAR average major league regular:

 

Padres (17)

Brewers (16)

Yankees (16)

 

That's it.

 

The Yankees only just got to 16 thanks to the Chapman trade, and the Brewers are likely to surpass the Padres by the end of the trading deadline.

 

So while the Brewers' top end guys maybe haven't been performing as well as hoped, the system continues to boast arguably the most impressive MLB-caliber depth in all of baseball. There's also reason to believe some of those 50 guys could improve to 55 or 60 over time (with some of them falling off). I'm still extremely bullish on the farm system.

 

Could not agree more. I want to know on what planet our system is considered disappointing.

[MKE81]

I disagree with Ray being rated #2 as well as higher than Phillips given Phillips had great success at that A+ level at the same age Ray is currently there. I understand it's based on potential and he was just a Top 5 pick in the draft and has like 100ABs in pro ball but still. I could be wrong but I believe Phillips ceiling is higher too. Lara is only that high still due to his age. He's not hitting well but I saw him in AZ during spring. Great build, seems very fluid in the field, accurate with his off-balance throws and if he can develop his hitting tool over the next 3-4yrs he'll definitely stay in the Top 5 area. Erceg, Burnes, Peralta can contend for Top 10 area spots in ranking by this time next year in they continue to progress. I think Peralta should be higher than 18 right now including above D.Williams.

 

I feel as if Hader stayed in AA and continued to dominate he'd be Top 30-35 overall and that his few hiccups in AAA have caused a drop similar to Phillips having a big drop to 78. I'm actually shocked that Ray is 37 overall given his slow start to pro ball.

 

Trading Lucroy, Smith and/or Jeffress should bring several others into the Top 10-15 adding to the depth we have right now. Exciting times

[reillymcshane]

- Clark been hurt much of the year and only hitting .219.

- Arcia not hitting better at AAA.

- Phillips hitting .225 at AA.

- Nottingham hitting .236 at AA.

- Lopez torched at AAA.

- Lara hitting below .200

- Harrison hitting .216 at A - and injured.

- Medeiros with a 5+ ERA.

- Taylor hitting .234 at AA.

- Coulter hitting .227.

- Houser with TJ surgery.

 

I can see why people are disappointed this year. A lot of high expectations, some probably unrealistic, but there have been quite a few players that haven't performed like we would have liked.

 

We can counter these disappointments with the positives, such as Isan Diaz, Hader, Freddy Peralta, Marcos Diplan, Woodruff, Ponce and others. But a lot of the positives are at the lower levels, so it's not quite as exciting as having a guy at AAA who does great and looks poised to help the club soon.

 

While I wish all our guys would do better, I don't get too worked up about things. Prospects fail more than they succeed, and we have to keep that in mind. That's why we need to just keep adding quality guys to the system. Players will eventually emerge.

 

And as noted above, take a look at other systems, and you'll see a lot of the same issues. It's the nature of things.

[LouisEly]

When Peralta and Woodruff are hanging around the #20 mark you probably feel pretty good about your depth. Not to mention we haven't even seen Kirby yet and he's listed on there as well.

It also suggests "shiny new object" syndrome, where people overvalue something because it is new. Orimoloye and Burns, and to a lesser extent Gatewood and Harrison, ahead of Woodruff? I maybe can understand the latter two, but recent 4th round draft picks over a guy who is doing very well at AA? Come on, how many 4th round guys ever do what Woodruff is doing at AA? Their scouting report on Woodruff doesn't jive with what I've read here either; it says "consistently operating in the low 90's", but I seem to recall that it's consistently in the mid-90's while touching 97/98.

 

I even question Nottingham being 10 spots ahead of Woodruff. Maybe a couple of spots, but not 10. I get that he's only 21, but you need to do better than a .635 OPS and questionable defense. Same with Orimoloye, I get that he's only 19 but he was a 4th round pick and not a 1st/2nd round pick for a reason.

[FVBrewerFan]

Since we're about to do our own list, I don't want to get into specifics. Let's just say my list will be quite a bit different than this. I will pile on and say I'm surprised how many guys from this draft class are on the list, including Ray all the way up at #2.

 

Only other thing I'll say is a few of these guys are way over-ranked based almost exclusively on potential, where results show otherwise. Always fun to see the lists though!

[MKE81]

- Clark been hurt much of the year and only hitting .219.

- Arcia not hitting better at AAA.

- Phillips hitting .225 at AA.

- Nottingham hitting .236 at AA.

- Lopez torched at AAA.

- Lara hitting below .200

- Harrison hitting .216 at A - and injured.

- Medeiros with a 5+ ERA.

- Taylor hitting .234 at AA.

- Coulter hitting .227.

- Houser with TJ surgery.

 

I can see why people are disappointed this year. A lot of high expectations, some probably unrealistic, but there have been quite a few players that haven't performed like we would have liked.

 

We can counter these disappointments with the positives, such as Isan Diaz, Hader, Freddy Peralta, Marcos Diplan, Woodruff, Ponce and others. But a lot of the positives are at the lower levels, so it's not quite as exciting as having a guy at AAA who does great and looks poised to help the club soon.

 

While I wish all our guys would do better, I don't get too worked up about things. Prospects fail more than they succeed, and we have to keep that in mind. That's why we need to just keep adding quality guys to the system. Players will eventually emerge.

 

And as noted above, take a look at other systems, and you'll see a lot of the same issues. It's the nature of things.

 

Also have to factor in their age vs level they're competing. Phillips was relatively solid between April/May and has struggled since. He also has a 268/375/960 line with 2 outs and RISP. Arcia is 21 in AAA. That's very young. He's excellent on defense and really has only struggled in June. He's also 323/408/876 with 2 outs and RISP. Diaz is 20 at A and took 2 months to figure it out at this level but has absolutely been killing it in June/July and if he continues that pace he could crack the Top 100 overall. Not many 2b prospects (he will be a 2b) put up these kinds of numbers, which is awesome to see. 317/397/914 with 2 outs and RISP as well. Nottingham is 21 at AA. He's had very strong May/June and struggled in April/July but he's 3.5yrs younger than the avg player at that level.

 

Lara is 18 so nobody should read into anything right now. Lopez is getting rocked at AAA but he's also 3.5yrs younger than avg player at that level. And Hader is a year younger than Lopez. Hader has 3 bad starts at AAA and the other 4 he's at 23ip, 14h, 6er, 11bb, 29k (2.35 era) - he's flashing signs of being dominant and with more experience at that level he'll be more consistent. Same with Lopez given the development of his pitches beginning last year. I won't read anything into that given the issues with CO. Taylor/Coulter, for me, I'm not shocked to see their performances because I've seen them in person taking extended fielding/hitting and never understood the hype for them. Just didn't see it. But that's just me. Houser I've always wanted in the pen immediately as that's what gets him to the MLB level plus he has multiple pitches. Kodi I can easily see in the pen long-term and that's where I like him but Kodi is 20 at A+. His ERA might not reflect it but he did a lot of good things in A last year. And this year he had a brutal April but has posted a 3.81 ERA the past 3 months (11 starts) so he's been figuring it out and piecing together some nice outings and will continue to grow as he has the tools. The overall numbers don't look outstanding for any of these dudes but they're all much younger for the competition levels and have the tools to grow and succeed.

[sfl2hnq17]

LouisEly, I'm guessing Burnes is high because a lot of scouts like him; he was #39 on mlb.com's prospect list so I'm sure he was true fourth rounder, though I do appreciate your point and agree with you.

[FVBrewerFan]

Also have to factor in their age vs level they're competing.

 

Absolutely. At the same time, guys who are considered to be top 5 prospects from a great farm system SHOULD be young for their level, and performing at a very high level.

 

That's why guys like Phillips and Lopez are troubling. It does NOT mean they will never be MLB players, or even really good MLB players. They still have time on their side. With that said, I do have a hard time putting guys like that in the Top 5.

 

Hopefully after the trades are done, we'll have a new #1, and 2-4 new players in the Top 10.

[paul253]

Very disappointing year for Lopez but I'm still surprised to see him below Medeiros. Medeiros is having an awful year too.

 

I'm also surprised to see Ray as the #37 overall prospect. Seems high to me

 

I'm hoping we can add at least two or three guys to our top ten by Monday.

[FVBrewerFan]

Very disappointing year for Lopez but I'm still surprised to see him below Medeiros. Medeiros is having an awful year too.

 

I'm also surprised to see Ray as the #37 overall prospect. Seems high to me

 

Yea, I see Medeiros and Ray as two guys I'm not even counting on to have roles in the next version of the competitive Brewers. So if either or both turn out to be really good, that will just be icing on the cake.

[MrTPlush]

Not really surprised by the Ray ranking. He was arguably the top available player in the draft and was a college player(closer to MLB ready in theory). The top guys of the draft typically will start popping up after #30.

 

That being said I hate when brand new prospects get ranked that high, but it is what it is. In a year 75% of the highly rated guys will drop.

[Mass Haas]

John Sickels revisited his preseason Brewers list, it's a bit sobering, actually

[gregmag]

This seems to be up to date before the last trade. Bickford at 4:

 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=mil

[And That]

This seems to be up to date before the last trade. Bickford at 4:

 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=mil

Guessing Brinson and Ortiz are both in front of Ray.

[gregmag]

I don't think so. In this case we can know the MLB rankings by the midseason top 100. They had Brinson at 21, Ray at 37, Hader at 45, Ortiz at 63, Bickford at 65. I assume that's the order in which they'll line up behind Arcia.

[And That]

You're right. I had Ray mentally lower in my head.

[MillerParkSouth]

Looks like Rijo and Coulter will drop off when the Rangers prospects are added. Who was #30 before Bickford came on?