Can't Miss

[KCBrewerfan34]

Colby or anyone else who cares to chime in. Is there any "can't miss" prospects in the 2006 draft. I have heard alot about Andrew Miller (NC). Any thoughts. Thank you!!

[bullox]

nm

[colbyjack]

Andrew Miller is probably the closest thing to a "can't-miss" prospect, but I really don't think he's "can't miss." This year's draft is lacking in this category, which includes players such as Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, Delmon Young, Rickie Weeks, B.J. Upton, Mark Prior, Mark Teixeira, Joe Mauer, etc. This year's crop is similar to that of 2004 and 2002, where there really isn't a sure-fire first overall pick, and many of the players available at the top may fall in the draft due to their affiliation with Scott Boras.

 

I do think there is some nice depth, particularly with the pitchers. The college arms that were expected to compete so far are performing very well, and there are also several other players that are stepping up this spring to make names for themselves (see my Crack of the Bat column from last week at Perfect Game to familiarize yourself with some of these arms on the rise). The high school level also has a lot of intriguing arms, and I think you could find some very good value in this area in the middle of the first round. With so many teams focusing on college arms, the 2nd or 3rd best prep arm might just slide to the 16th pick.

[foamboy1]

Any early predictions, Patrick on the Brewer pick? I know it's early....but the thoughts and reasoning would be interesting.

 

ps....congrats on the baby....looks like a southpaw.

[colbyjack]

Thanks foamboy.

 

I think the pick will be a pitcher, and I think that pitcher is going to come from the college ranks, although I think there could be very good value from the prep arms at the 16th spot. I just sense that the organizaiton knows they are getting closer and closer to winning, and I think they are going to want more pieces that are closer and closer to helping that cause.

 

I've liked Long Beach State RHP Jared Hughes for over three years now. He has transformed himself into an eractic power pitcher to a cerebral groundball pitcher at the college level. He pitches to contact, has good enough stuff to strike batters out, and induces a ton of weakly hit ground balls as the opponents use an aluminum bat. He is one of my favorites for the 16th pick.

 

Other college pitchers that will factor into that range include Houston's Brad Lincoln, Cal's Brandon Morrow, Nebraska's Joba Chamberlain, San Diego's Josh Butler, Stanford's Greg Reynolds and Texas' Kyle McCulloch. I like Lincoln because he has two very good pitches in a fastball and a curveball that has been compared to Sheets', plus he's a great hitter and would be a perfect fit in the NL. Chamberlain doesn't have a picture-perfect frame, but he competes, works hard and has good stuff.

 

Don't rule out a college closer, as Jack Z. spent an entire weekend last month checking out the Miami-Florida season, and was behind the screen clocking Miami's Chris Perez. Arizona's Mark Melancon and UC Irvine's Blair Erickson are the other college closers worth mentioning with the 16th pick. It could be interesting to follow, as drafting closers is a growing trend, and if the Brewers are in the thick of a playoff race come June (although that is still early), they may go with an arm they think they can have up by September.

 

The prep arms include projectable/power guys like Dellin Betances, Matt Latos, Jason Stoffel, Colton Willems, Josh Thrailkill and Chris Tillman. Possibly Kyle Drabek if he falls.

[foamboy1]

Thanks for the rundown.

 

Do you believe they could be enticed by a top 3 talent that slips because of the Boras factor?

[colbyjack]

I don't think they will. We've wondered this before the past few years if the Brewers would take a chance on players like Weaver, Drew, Hochevar and Pelfrey, and they have passed despite having the opportunity to draft all four of those players. One thing Jack Z. and the entire organizaiton definitely values is getting a newly drafted player into the system quickly, as Weeks is the only first-round that took more than a couple of weeks to sign. With any Boras client when it comes to signing you're not talking about weeks or months, but the rest of the 2006 calendar year if not beyond.

[sheetswannabe]

Good rundown.