"The Guy", or, "The Package"

[splitterpfj]

You can name the player ... Lucroy, Smith, Jeffress, Braun, Nelson, etc -

 

Would rather do a one-for-one trade, and get, "the guy", who is high on any prospect ranking list, or would your prefer to get, "the package" of multiple prospects who are high upside, but further down the chain right now?

 

(When you answer, tell me why).

[trwi7]

Depends. What's the package? If it's a top 50 prospect, a top 75 prospect, a top 100 prospect and then like an 18 year old with talent in the really low minors as part of the package, I would take that over a top 5-10 prospect alone.

 

If it's a top 50 prospect and then a bunch of filler prospects who might turn into average players if they even make the majors, I'd take the best prospect I could get.

[madbad2000]

The package. While it is tempting to get "the guy," I think at this stage of our rebuild we could use multiple potential guys. This is assuming you are not picking out lower level guys at random, but have scouted and identified multiple players that have serious potential. Prospects are such a crap shoot that I generally prefer multiple chances to hit. If we are talking 2018 and we're looking to fill a potential MLB roster hole with a hot prospect in AA/AAA, then it would be more palatable to target that one guy.

[3and2Fastball]

I'd prefer "the guy". We don't have enough elite prospects in the system. Hader & Arcia might be the only ones. I would prefer 1 player who is as close to the sure thing as possible (i.e. a Bregman or Moncada) over a bunch of maybe/could be prospects

[MrTPlush]

I will take "the guy" because we are so deep with quality trade chips. If Lucroy or whoever can get a Moncada/Bregman/etc. then do it. We can always trade a Smith/Nelson/Thornburg/whoever for a package, but some of those guy don't have the value to get a Moncada alone.

 

Getting "the guy" is so incredibly rare and hard to get. If we have a chance to get one the trigger better be pulled. We can always get low level guys and 50 range prospects. Those trades happen all the time.

[jerichoholicninja]

The package. But I'm generally a play it safe guy. Get as many chances for success as possible instead of putting all your eggs in one basket.

[mattyo]

The guy. Get the best prospect you can regardless of position. Then add in others for lottery tickets as an afterthought. If we can get a top 15 prospect return, how could you turn that down? The package would have to include incredibly high ceiling players

[paul253]

Definitely the guy, unless the guy is a shortstop. This system has plenty of depth but lacks star power. I'd definitely prefer a top 20 prospect then 2-3 in the 75-100 range.

[patrickgpe]

depends,

 

if I was the GM and texas offered me Gallo for Lucroy, i'd take it, but it would have to be a very special player.

 

In general I'd rather have a package. The brewers did very well for themselves taking 4 prospects for Gogo / Fiers.

 

if the guy fails the trade is awful. In a package as long as 1 or 2 pan out it looks OK. Look what Cleveland got for CC, while LaPorta never panned out, they did OK for themselves with atleast Brantley.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I think you can't pigeon hole yourself into one or the other

 

When you're talking about trading away marginal veterans at the trade deadline, I think you shoot for whatever package of "diamond in the rough" talent that is years away - if one turns into a MLB-caliber player or prospect you can flip down the road to improve the MLB club you had a good trade.

 

When you're talking about trading away a MLB-cornerstone player (Lucroy, Braun, Greinke), I think you're better off minimizing the size of the package to get the highest-caliber prospect you can. I think you still want to have an extra prospect or two added in since today most teams won't part with a consensus top 10 prospect, but you should want to replace that caliber of veteran talent with a player that has the potential to be that kind of a difference-maker once they're in the majors.

[pacopete4]

I want "the guy" who just happened to come within the "package." That's what will put this franchise over the top with this rebuild.

[dacrew101]

I'm risky, I want a package. Obviously it depends on that package

[gregmag]

It's a great question. I'm with the people who say "it depends," which I know isn't much of an answer. If your scouts and analysts think "the guy" on offer is as sure a perennial All-Star thing as you can get, and if you're getting at least five years of control, that's hard to pass up. If "the guy" isn't at that level, I probably want the package.

 

I'm starting to think we use the term "lottery ticket" in a way that underrates package trades. For example, IIRC several people said our return for Lind was three lottery tickets. I don't think that's right. An actual ticket in a lottery of any size has zero economic value, because risk of losing approaches 100%, so I'm not sure what we mean when we use the term as a trade metaphor. Every player has potential and risk, from Joey Gallo to Freddy Peralta. Every trade evaluation has to consider both factors as to each player. The FO presumably looked at the players in the Lind trade and decided that their potential was high enough to be good value (compared to other offers) for Lind despite the obviously high risk of low-level pitchers. High, not total.

 

The goal in a trade should be to bring back maximum value. Baseball isn't the NBA. One transcendent player, by himself, doesn't get you very far (ask the Angels). If you get back one player with high value X, that's good, because you can plant that value in one roster spot and then pursue other ways to optimize the other spots. On the other hand, three players who add up to high value X may optimize, or at least improve, three roster spots. I don't see a categorical reason to prefer one approach to the other.

[Boomer5]

Quality is always better than quantity.

[Warning Track Power]

The guy...especially if for some reason the Nationals offered Giolito for Lucroy. Bottom line is the Brewers rarely develop top of the rotation SP. If Giolito were on the table for

Lucroy, I would gladly do a one for one.

[Austin Tatious]

I'm taking high upside talent. We don't need a bunch of Matt Mieske's, to steal a name from another thread. Now I might be willing to take multiple high upside teenagers. I want athletic talent with lots of tools.

 

The choices I am fine with, fewer high upside advanced prospects or more high upside teenager prospects at lower levels. The only way I'd want the Matt Mieske's of the world would be as the 4th piece. Even then I'd rather it be a lottery ticket.

 

We already have considerable depth. We will be doing our top 25 lists next month. We will have lots to choose from. We could honestly do top 50 lists. That's how much depth we have. That's not the issue. High upside athletes with high ceilings is what is missing. A couple of elite bats and a couple of TOR prospects are needed in the worst way.

 

Matt Mieske. Ramon Flores. These guys can be picked up any offseason for limited resources.

[HighHeat19]

Really it's both. Anytime you trade an elite player, especially at an elite position (Lucroy). You need to get "potential" quality back, or essentially the same player back WITH interest. For instance if I'm giving up an A rated player, I need a A rated player in return. Since the return will have no value until the future, I then need to charge interest. This will be one of the high K pitchers that Stearns is always aquring with his trades. Hence, for example, a Moncada plus a low level, high K pitcher would be in order here. I would think this would also include Bregman & a pitcher, Frazier & a pitcher etc. And this maybe the sticking point for alot teams. They don't want to give up their top talent. But when I look at the contending teams and their respective GM's, who really wants to WIN a world series? Not just be good in the playoffs but really, really, really wants to win! To me that's 3 teams, Red Sox, Cubs and Rangers. And I believe the Red Sox will be the final destination for Lucroy.

[LouisEly]

How come it seems like when the Brewers trade for "The Package" it doesn't work out (Grienke, Sheffield, Vaughn, etc.) but when the Brewers trade away "The Package" (Grienke, Sabathia) the package always seems to pan out?

 

Like HighHeat (welcome to the board BTW) said, if you are trading an elite player at an elite position you should get back both - you should get "The Guy" as part of "The Package".

 

I don't know if Detroit has the prospects, but if you talk about owners who really, really, really want to win you have to put Detroit in the mix. Verlander and Cabrera are getting to the end of the line.

[FVBrewerFan]

Both. They have enough trade chips to get "the guy" in one trade, and package in others.

[HighHeat19]

People say Detroit doesn't have the prospects, but they do have fresh faces from this year's draft. Matt Manning is a 6'6 pitcher and was the number 9 selection over all. However, he is getting shelled in rookie ball. Their 5th round pick Mark Ecker is looking outstanding in his short minor league career. So there are creative ways to getting the trade done. But it will be of the best interest of the Brewers to get the package with the "guy". The packages that include five 19 year olds with high ceilings will be there July 31st at midnight. The package that includes the "guy".......not so much.

[Austin Tatious]

Great post, high heat.

[splitterpfj]

People say Detroit doesn't have the prospects, but they do have fresh faces from this year's draft. Matt Manning is a 6'6 pitcher and was the number 9 selection over all. However, he is getting shelled in rookie ball. Their 5th round pick Mark Ecker is looking outstanding in his short minor league career. So there are creative ways to getting the trade done. But it will be of the best interest of the Brewers to get the package with the "guy". The packages that include five 19 year olds with high ceilings will be there July 31st at midnight. The package that includes the "guy".......not so much.

 

Keep in mind, the players who were drafted this year cannot be traded until after the World Series.

[HighHeat19]

Did not know that. Was wondering if their was a catch. Thank you for the info Splitter. If that's the case, I do not think Detroit has enough then to trade for Lucroy. Unless a PTPTBNL can be had after the world series My guess would be no.

[DHonks]

There's no minor leaguer that I would trade Lucroy or Braun for. At a minimum I would want 3 players for each. For Braun I'd want more like 5 players for him

[splitterpfj]

Did not know that. Was wondering if their was a catch. Thank you for the info Splitter. If that's the case, I do not think Detroit has enough then to trade for Lucroy. Unless a PTPTBNL can be had after the world series My guess would be no.

 

They put that rule in after San Diego drafted Trea Turner and traded him to Washington. New leaked that he was the PTBNL, and there he sat, sort of, "phantom property" of the Padres while that season played out.

 

No one from this draft class can be a PTBNL in a "Deadline Deal."