How long will the rebuild take?

[Ennder]

I would expect 3 years minimum before we start thinking about winning as the goal and then probably another 2 years after that to actually achieve the goal. The team absolutely should be targeting younger players, not those close to the majors.

[RobertR]

I would expect 3 years minimum before we start thinking about winning as the goal and then probably another 2 years after that to actually achieve the goal. The team absolutely should be targeting younger players, not those close to the majors.

 

I disagree in that I think that's limiting. Get the best package of prospects you can, regardless of level, and worry about the rest later. You can always flip talent.

[JohnBriggs12]

I would expect 3 years minimum before we start thinking about winning as the goal and then probably another 2 years after that to actually achieve the goal. The team absolutely should be targeting younger players, not those close to the majors.

 

So that's the plan? Winning in 2021? Where do I get my World Series tickets?

 

I love how the Brewers have snowed fans into actually believing they can target within a year when to a. try to start winning and b. actually winning so they can accept abject failure in the interim. Sports don't work that way. There's front offices in Chicago, St. Louis, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati who are all working to prevent that from happening and in 3 of the 4 spots, they have better track records than the Brewers' front office.

 

Put a major league quality team on the field and develop the talent below that better. If you do your job, eventually you'll win. Predicting when that will be is fool's gold.

[bill hAll Star]

I'll take either end of the spectrum in prospects, but I don't mind the 19-year-old prospects coming back.

 

2017: Complete dumpster year. Nobody complains here. Arcia gets his feet wet. Maybe Phillips. Try to find another Villar-type acquisition.

 

2018: Sign a handful of 2-3 year veteran contracts and maybe one big one. You can compete here possibly but I still expect to lose out to the Cubs. That said, if Braun is dealt and mostly off the books, you can sign 3-4 high-priced players and try to keep some of their deals on the shorter end.

 

Nelson, Davies, Lopez, Hader, Arcia, Phillips, Carter(?), Villar, Santana, and maybe a few other additions and you've got half of your roster for a total of probably $30 million/year. Mark can go out and overpay 4 guys to his heart's content as long as maybe only 1 of them is a very long-term deal.

 

*Some would suggest that Braun could belong in that core. I'd rather get the prospects for him and sign a 29-year-old FA for 3-4 years.

 

2019-2020: Compete with the above group. Try to get the early extensions on Arcia, Phillips, etc. and absorb the $ here. At this point, I feel like our recent trades and picks will afford good AAA replacement-level depth (think Cards/Rays of the past few years). We can have the 3-4 very overpaid players and not have to worry about injuries destroying a season and needing to turn to Yuni Betancourt.

 

2021 and beyond: Wave 2 of prospects arrives.

[pacopete4]

I think it's very scary to try to map out so far in advanced what your team might look like or what moves to make. I hope Stearns isn't doing this. I hope he is trying, and it feels like he is, to acquire the best players he can at any age or stage of their careers while using a budget that works for the Milwaukee Brewers.

[BuckyBrewer61]

Put a major league quality team on the field and develop the talent below that better. If you do your job, eventually you'll win. Predicting when that will be is fool's gold.

 

I agree with this, but I don't think the Brewers are necessarily telling everyone what specific year they are planning to compete again. What they are saying is that this rebuild will take some time, which it will. It's wise for them to temper fan expectations in order to do this right.

 

This franchise was a complete dumpster-fire for the exact reason that they kept trying to put a major league contending team on the field each year rather than accept that just wasn't going to happen and attempt to rebuild through trades and the draft. Players with value were held onto until that value was decreased or lost (McGehee, Lohse, ARam, Gallardo, etc), and we ended up trading or releasing any pieces of value for less than they were once worth, leaving our MLB team floundering and our farm system barren.

 

To rebuild this franchise as a whole will take patience, and years, that's all the Brewers are saying and they are right. If you have a way to put a quality MLB team on the field while completely rebuilding the farm system by next spring, please forward those plans to Mark A.

[bill hAll Star]

I think it's very scary to try to map out so far in advanced what your team might look like or what moves to make. I hope Stearns isn't doing this. I hope he is trying, and it feels like he is, to acquire the best players he can at any age or stage of their careers while using a budget that works for the Milwaukee Brewers.

 

Sure, that's the general stock answer. Of course that's what they'll do. I'm just saying if things go according to the assumed plan, this would be a good path. We know that Mark isn't going to wait around until 2021 to see a team even consider competing again. I'm not saying "buy 4 overpriced players at all costs" but I'll lay it out more generally.

 

2017: One more selloff year

2018-2020: $ to spend on short-term free agents/trades with first wave arriving.

2021+: Run your org like the Cardinals, current Astros, Cubs (with less $), etc. Have great minors depth + pipeline and buy a player or two when necessary.

 

Of course this can all change. If Arcia/Hader/Phillips are looking like busts, you may have to push it back a year or two.

[igor67]

I just looked up the Pirates recent finishes, 3 consecutive second place finishes and what seems like a likely 3rd place this year with no post season birth. Their pitching staff is doing nothing and their star player has looked terrible. So that's a 4 year span, the Brewers best five year span 07-11 started with 2 second place finishes, 2 3rd's and a 1st. And without diving deep into the archive, I'm pretty sure the calls for tear it all down were starting to beat already in 2010. One could parse those seasons a number of different ways to argue who has been more successful, but that is kind of the point (Pirates 3 playoff appearances vs. 2 for the Brewers, but the Brewers have 10 post season games compared to only 7 for the Pirates

 

If one accepts the high level of real variation that exists in teams year to year as a reason for not trying to predict prospect waves (perfectly rational), then being overly critical about a management strategy that did in fact yield comparable results to a team lauded for doing it the right way seems a bit odd. This is not intended as an argument for going for it this year or anything like that, but there is a lot to be said for having a team with a reasonable chance of making the playoffs at the beginning of the year and keeping that going instead of hyperfocusing on 1 or 2 year windows and hoping all of your prospects develop and staff cheap at the same time. Getting a collection of prospects that develops enough together to be a threat could take as little as 2 years or it could take quite a bit longer (which is the risk of the rebuild you keep cycling through talent hoping to get a critical mass).

[Ennder]

I would expect 3 years minimum before we start thinking about winning as the goal and then probably another 2 years after that to actually achieve the goal. The team absolutely should be targeting younger players, not those close to the majors.

 

So that's the plan? Winning in 2021? Where do I get my World Series tickets?

 

I love how the Brewers have snowed fans into actually believing they can target within a year when to a. try to start winning and b. actually winning so they can accept abject failure in the interim. Sports don't work that way. There's front offices in Chicago, St. Louis, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati who are all working to prevent that from happening and in 3 of the 4 spots, they have better track records than the Brewers' front office.

 

Put a major league quality team on the field and develop the talent below that better. If you do your job, eventually you'll win. Predicting when that will be is fool's gold.

 

What a pleasant chap you are. You must be a blast at parties.

 

I never stated a specific year, I specifically said 3 years minimum. It is just how rebuilds have historically worked, the turnaround takes at least 3 years. Sometimes it takes way more than that.

[adambr2]

I would expect 3 years minimum before we start thinking about winning as the goal and then probably another 2 years after that to actually achieve the goal. The team absolutely should be targeting younger players, not those close to the majors.

 

So that's the plan? Winning in 2021? Where do I get my World Series tickets?

 

I love how the Brewers have snowed fans into actually believing they can target within a year when to a. try to start winning and b. actually winning so they can accept abject failure in the interim. Sports don't work that way. There's front offices in Chicago, St. Louis, Pittsburgh and Cincinnati who are all working to prevent that from happening and in 3 of the 4 spots, they have better track records than the Brewers' front office.

 

Put a major league quality team on the field and develop the talent below that better. If you do your job, eventually you'll win. Predicting when that will be is fool's gold.

 

Part of developing the talent below is acquiring talent at those levels, which often requires trading MLB talent. So unfortunately the reality of a rebuild in MLB is that it's just not realistic to rebuild while putting the best possible MLB team on the field in the interim.

 

Also, you mention Chicago, but they just went through the same thing. They were able to get through it a little quicker than we probably will but they still has to step back from putting a MLB quality team on the field to get to where they are now.

[Bombers]

Many mention and compare the Brewers rebuild to the Cubs, which is fine, but I am not sure if the Cubs rebuild was short or long based on what everyone is saying. So lets compare the Cubs to the Brewers

 

2010 - Cubs went into the year with Lee, Ramirez, Soriano, etc and flopped and had a fire sale starting in 2010. The Brewers went into 2015 with Gomez, Fiers, Parra, Lohse, Garza, Lucroy, Braun and flopped. Selling started in 2015.

 

2011 - the Cubs begin a stretch of 4 straight years of sub .500 baseball, including coming in last place in the central for 5 straight years from 2010 through 2014. So if we "follow suit" which so many think the cubs were a quick turnaround, it means we will finally get out of the cellar in 2020. That will be our first year above .500 ball.

 

For me, I think the Cubs had a longer and harder road. Baseball America has the Cubs as

2009 rank 27

2010 rank 14

2011 of 16.

2015 - They reach a #1 rank

 

The Brewers were

2014 - ranked 28th

2015 - ranked 19th.

2016 - ranked 9th

After the trades we could pull off between now and next year we could be a top 5 farm in 2017.

[superfly]

God I hope it isn't 2021. I'm as big a Brewer fan as any but that is ALOT of wishing for Packer season to start. 2018 please.

[tmwiese55]

I just looked up the Pirates recent finishes, 3 consecutive second place finishes and what seems like a likely 3rd place this year with no post season birth. Their pitching staff is doing nothing and their star player has looked terrible. So that's a 4 year span, the Brewers best five year span 07-11 started with 2 second place finishes, 2 3rd's and a 1st. And without diving deep into the archive, I'm pretty sure the calls for tear it all down were starting to beat already in 2010. One could parse those seasons a number of different ways to argue who has been more successful, but that is kind of the point (Pirates 3 playoff appearances vs. 2 for the Brewers, but the Brewers have 10 post season games compared to only 7 for the Pirates

 

If one accepts the high level of real variation that exists in teams year to year as a reason for not trying to predict prospect waves (perfectly rational), then being overly critical about a management strategy that did in fact yield comparable results to a team lauded for doing it the right way seems a bit odd. This is not intended as an argument for going for it this year or anything like that, but there is a lot to be said for having a team with a reasonable chance of making the playoffs at the beginning of the year and keeping that going instead of hyperfocusing on 1 or 2 year windows and hoping all of your prospects develop and staff cheap at the same time. Getting a collection of prospects that develops enough together to be a threat could take as little as 2 years or it could take quite a bit longer (which is the risk of the rebuild you keep cycling through talent hoping to get a critical mass).

 

Another example often lauded as better than our "go for it" trades mentality is the Rays. And it looks like they're basically at the same spot we are now.

[CheezWizHed]

What is the definition of rebuild complete?

 

The Brewers have never won a WS. The Cubs haven't won one in 100+ years.

 

If I knew we were going to win a WS in 2021, I'd be a happy man.

[Austin Tatious]

We would all like to win sooner or later, but I don't see much hope for three years. If they sell off assets over the next year, there won't be much here in 2017 and that's when the bottom will fall out. 2018 would then be a young, developing team but probably still not therr yet. The hope is 2019 at best as more young talent comes online. They are going to have to find some top flight pitchers at some point. Mid to back half of the rotation is fine. But the front end pitching, and a truly elite bat or two are not here yet. Can't squander high draft picks. The '17 and '18 high picks gotta get it done.

[bill hAll Star]

Like I said in earlier posts, don't mortgage any prospects or anything like that, but you can start trying to sign some short, productive contracts in 2018. Realistically, the Arcia/Hader/Phillips (and a few others) group probably won't really be competitive in their own right until 2020, but I think you can start churning some excitement with a puncher's chance in 2018 and maybe break into playoff contention in 2019.

[JohnBriggs12]

I know this. Uecker probably isn't going to be in the booth when this team is contending again and that's sad. Nobody deserves to see this team win more than Uke.

 

Those of you celebrating the losing seasons as necessary for future success, consider this, the future is guaranteed to no one. The present is all that can be controlled. Lots of long suffering Brewer fans have waited long enough. Asking more of them is a sign that this ownership/management team has been a failure. Trusting them going forward? Be skeptical.

[paul253]

The thing that concerns me is the lack of star power in the system. We have Arcia and......????? We have a lot of depth. A LOT of depth. And a lot of guys that can be MLB regulars. But we are severely lacking in star power. I was hoping a top five pick this year would get us a star but I put Ray more in the MLB regular category. We have nobody Id consider a #1 caliber pitcher. Hader maybe a #2 if he can't figure out how to go more than six innings. Then a bunch of back end rotation fillers.

 

Last time we dedicated ourselves to a rebuild we had plenty of prospects with all star ceilings. Braun. Weeks. Fielder. In addition a lot of solid regulars like Hart Hardy and Lucroy. It's going to take awhile to build up that kind of talent base here.

[fondybrewfan]

I like the idea of scouring the lower minors for more high ceiling talent; it just sucks that will of course lengthen the time of the rebuild. That probably is the best way to get the high end pitching talent back though.

 

Best case scenario is a wild card contender in 2018; but more likely 2019. The key is absolutely going to be on the pitching side. We have quite a bit of offensive talent scattered throughout the system but the pitching is still light. Obviously Hader is there but then you need to see some guys come through like Lopez, Woodruff, Ponce, Medeiros, Etc.

[BuckyBrewer61]

I know this. Uecker probably isn't going to be in the booth when this team is contending again and that's sad. Nobody deserves to see this team win more than Uke.

 

Those of you celebrating the losing seasons as necessary for future success, consider this, the future is guaranteed to no one. The present is all that can be controlled. Lots of long suffering Brewer fans have waited long enough. Asking more of them is a sign that this ownership/management team has been a failure. Trusting them going forward? Be skeptical.

 

Couldn't agree more on Ueck, but how would you propose we build a contender more quickly? It's not like we're one or two MLB-ready pieces away from being a playoff team.

[jerichoholicninja]

I know this. Uecker probably isn't going to be in the booth when this team is contending again and that's sad. Nobody deserves to see this team win more than Uke.

 

Those of you celebrating the losing seasons as necessary for future success, consider this, the future is guaranteed to no one. The present is all that can be controlled. Lots of long suffering Brewer fans have waited long enough. Asking more of them is a sign that this ownership/management team has been a failure. Trusting them going forward? Be skeptical.

 

Couldn't agree more on Ueck, but how would you propose we build a contender more quickly? It's not like we're one or two MLB-ready pieces away from being a playoff team.

 

The only way to make this team a playoff contender quicker is to make it worse in the long run. Either by trading all of our prospects for veterans or by signing expensive free agents. Briggs has been pounding the point that he wants a winner right now since the offseason because he's old (his words, not mine). I guess he would prefer Dave Stewart be our GM.

[FVBrewerFan]

The thing that concerns me is the lack of star power in the system.

 

This. It's why predicting a timeframe is impossible. Rebuilding is not linear, there are jumps forward, and jumps backwards.

 

Look at the past off-season as an example. You have Santana, Arcia, Phillips who all looked like they could be big time bats. Starting pitching? Jungmann, Peralta, Lopez, Wagner, Houser were all guys from the high minors up through MLB who looked like they COULD be part of the future.

 

So, quite honestly, it's not even star power that is missing. You can go a step beyond that, and say we really have no idea who can/will even be a major league player within the next 3 years, let alone a star.

 

That all sounds very depressing, but these things can change very quickly. All you can in the meantime is keep acquiring the best talent you can. I really don't know what a viable alternative is? Sign a couple Supans and Linds and tell the fans you're shooting for .500 every year?

[BuckyBrewer61]

So, quite honestly, it's not even star power that is missing. You can go a step beyond that, and say we really have no idea who can/will even be a major league player within the next 3 years, let alone a star.

 

Yep, this is why I like Stearns' approach of getting multiple players back in trades. I would've loved to get Espinoza, but what if he doesn't become a star? Or becomes a #5 starter someday? That's multiple years of all-star pitching given up for one guy, a lot of eggs in one 18 year-old basket.

 

Some prospects will stick and some won't, that's just the way it is. Baseball may be the hardest of all the 4 major professional sports to predict which prospects will pan out in the end, and the guys that are projected to be stars or sure-things that people want in order to contend now just don't get traded away. Especially the projected stars that are MLB ready now.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Getting a future star in a Lucroy trade is very important to our rebuild, IMO.

 

Also the next few June drafts, especially our 1st round picks near the top of the draft will be another huge key to our rebuild.

 

The Brewers need to finish with a bad enough record to land a Top 5 pick this season and next, and possibly the season after that.

 

With the 1st round picks, the Brewers need to land a franchise type player (a la Kris Bryant) and/or a future Ace (a la Stephen Strasburg).

 

Those are the type of franchise cornerstone players you just can't obtain via trade very often.

 

The Astros were able to turn around their rebuild quickly this way and I think we need to follow that blueprint.

 

The sad reality is that I just don't see many franchise cornerstone players currently in our farm system, but I hope I'm wrong.

 

What I do see is some nice depth of role players, league average offensive starters and #3-5 type starting pitchers. This can be valuable to a small market team like the Brewers as long as they can add those star-type players to the mix. (like Fielder and Braun from our last true re-building phase)

[Austin Tatious]

^^^I couldn't agree more with A Swing and a Drive's post, #24.