Insider Stuff

[wichmae]

Yan Gomes just had a nasty looking injury. Maybe that bumps Luc's value

[splitterpfj]

Any insight on the Ray pick over a pitcher like Puk/Garrett/Groome?

 

No

[jjgott]

I'm not going to tell you who just called me - believe me or don't.

 

Your source is Ahmad Rashad. He's always got the Inside[r] Stuff.

[splitterpfj]

I think it is pretty obvious that the Brewers are requiring a top 50 prospect in the deal instead of volume..."getting creative" refers to wanting to not deal their top guys yet getting Luc

 

oh, and awesome stuff Split...not sure why you have gotten guff lately, you always bring the goods with common sense and passion - a great combo

 

Thank you.

 

On Lucroy, I suppose I should have asked for details on the Rangers. I don't know if TX doesn't want to give a guy the Brewers want, or if, for instance, the Brewers are asking for more pitching than TX wants to give, so they're trying to add a young arm somewhere, to add to the mix.

 

Also Lucroy - I have never believed Houston is out on him, and I don't believe it now.

[craigharmann]

Also Lucroy - I have never believed Houston is out on him, and I don't believe it now.

 

I don't get it. Castro is a good defensive catcher, serviceable offensively. Gattis has shown to be a solid backup. I don't see how Lucroy fits. Gurriel moves Valbuena to first and Reed's at first already, so Luc wouldn't play first. You've got a rotation of a whole bunch of guys at DH. If the Astros need anything, it's one more starting pitcher. Fiers is inconsistent, Keuchel is getting back into form, McCullers is young, Fister has been solid, and McHugh has had two excellent second halves the last two years. A top flight starter would go a long way. Gurriel is the mid season bat.

[splitterpfj]

Also Lucroy - I have never believed Houston is out on him, and I don't believe it now.

 

I don't get it. Castro is a good defensive catcher, serviceable offensively. Gattis has shown to be a solid backup. I don't see how Lucroy fits. Gurriel moves Valbuena to first and Reed's at first already, so Luc wouldn't play first. You've got a rotation of a whole bunch of guys at DH. If the Astros need anything, it's one more starting pitcher. Fiers is inconsistent, Keuchel is getting back into form, McCullers is young, Fister has been solid, and McHugh has had two excellent second halves the last two years. A top flight starter would go a long way. Gurriel is the mid season bat.

 

Houston was linked to Lucroy over the winter, with Castro and Gattis already on the roster - they view him as a clear upgrade, which of course, he would be.

 

Yes, Houston, and many other teams, would benefit by dealing for a top flight starter, but there are zero of them available right now, depending on your definition.

 

The whole industry is scouting Rich Hill, but he left early again today, this time, a blister exploded on his pitching hand. They're all watching Odorizzi and Moore in Tampa too, and then you've got Ervin Santana and Jeremy Hellickson. That, "guy", just isn't being made available right now - no Greinke, no Price, no Cueto .... Hill, Odorizzi, Hellickson, etc.

 

This is why, whatever you think of his merits, Jimmy Nelson may have real value right now, because he's not on a big contract, he offers team control, and the guys at the head of the class cannot be had.

[craigharmann]

Also Lucroy - I have never believed Houston is out on him, and I don't believe it now.

 

I don't get it. Castro is a good defensive catcher, serviceable offensively. Gattis has shown to be a solid backup. I don't see how Lucroy fits. Gurriel moves Valbuena to first and Reed's at first already, so Luc wouldn't play first. You've got a rotation of a whole bunch of guys at DH. If the Astros need anything, it's one more starting pitcher. Fiers is inconsistent, Keuchel is getting back into form, McCullers is young, Fister has been solid, and McHugh has had two excellent second halves the last two years. A top flight starter would go a long way. Gurriel is the mid season bat.

 

Houston was linked to Lucroy over the winter, with Castro and Gattis already on the roster - they view him as a clear upgrade, which of course, he would be.

 

Yes, Houston, and many other teams, would benefit by dealing for a top flight starter, but there are zero of them available right now, depending on your definition.

 

The whole industry is scouting Rich Hill, but he left early again today, this time, a blister exploded on his pitching hand. They're all watching Odorizzi and Moore in Tampa too, and then you've got Ervin Santana and Jeremy Hellickson. That, "guy", just isn't being made available right now - no Greinke, no Price, no Cueto .... Hill, Odorizzi, Hellickson, etc.

 

This is why, whatever you think of his merits, Jimmy Nelson may have real value right now, because he's not on a big contract, he offers team control, and the guys at the head of the class cannot be had.

 

Which is why I hope the Astros stay pat. There's enough in the tank and in the minors that would help get a bunch of postseason games....and wins.

[MilwaukeeBeers]

Words cannot describe how much I love DS and our new front office. Thank you splitter this is fantastic, and only reinforces my trust in our guys!

[MilwaukeeBeers]

I feel like Boston made the right choice, but man what if that Nelson deal went down... We'd be kissing DS's feet.

[Boomer5]

Great post. Thanks for all the info.

[splitterpfj]

Thank you for sharing this! Not that I wasn't excited for the approaching deadline, but this restored a bit of that excitement.

 

You're welcome.

[splitterpfj]

Thank you for answering. Like others I really like thread. A number of great info items in it.

 

One more question: in the original post, as part of the closing thoughts it was written that the Brewers will be bad for a little while.

 

Does that mean "bad/not contending for the post season" for 1 more or 3 more or 5 more seasons???

 

I've believed the rebuild (this year being year 1) is a 5 year race with Cinci. Loser of that race is in bad position for 10 years or longer. Part of that is due to divisional strength, part of that due to situation with the farm system (very poor before the trades started last season).

 

 

I don't think Stearns has a plan that goes, "We'll be good again ....this year", I think his approach is to build the organization, filling it with as much talent as possible, and competing again, for a long stretch, whenever enough of those guys make it happen at the big league level.

 

One other thing on Stearns - look at how often he gets multiple players for one, and adds a pitcher to the system.

 

Aaron Hill - 2 for 1, with a pitcher.

 

Jason Rogers - 2 for 1, with a pitcher.

 

Khris Davis - 2 for 1, with a pitcher.

 

Adam Lind - 3 for 1, all pitchers.

 

I absolutely love that .... stack 'em up, there is no such thing as too many pitchers.

[brewmann04]

thanks for sharing I wonder if Texas will now look to involve a 3rd team to maybe get the prospects DS looking for?

[MilwaukeesBest]

All of those points are somewhat fascinating to me, can't wait until some big time rumors pop up. I can only dream of the return from Houston for a Lucroy + Nelson package...

[beekay414]

Absolutely love the information. Thank you, my friend.

[Austin Tatious]

Texas' GM, Jon Daniels, strikes me as having the "smartest man in the room" complex. It's not Stearns. Stearns has made a number of trades. He seems to understand how to do it. Daniels comes across as trying to outsmart every one all the time. He's over-complicating things. It's baseball. If you want to out sucker your opponent, why even try to deal with him?

 

I have Texas fatigue. It shouldn't be that hard. I like the potential of some of their prospects, but Daniels is going to have to give up talent to get an in-prime all star catcher and potentially pitching help.

 

I'd look to work with other ball clubs to be honest at this point.

[splitterpfj]

All of those points are somewhat fascinating to me, can't wait until some big time rumors pop up. I can only dream of the return from Houston for a Lucroy + Nelson package...

 

One point on this ...

 

The best offer is the best offer, but I expect the Brewers to try to deal their guys one at a time, as much as possible, to get as many total prospects back as they can.

 

David Stearns immediately stated, he was going to acquire young, controllable talent, and his actions have absolutely backed that. If it turns out to be a 4-5 guys for 2 in one big move, no problem, but I expect Stearns to continue with the 2 for 1 type moves more often than not.

[Boomer5]

Not sure I buy comparing Stearns to theo. Theo wouldn't have the Cubs in this position without all those high draft picks and the Cubs checkbook.

 

Stearns is going to have to be way better than Theo

[BuckyBrewer61]

Theo wouldn't have the Cubs in this position without all those high draft picks and the Cubs checkbook.

 

Agreed. He appears to be a good GM, but he also has taken jobs in Boston and Chicago - two clubs with massive payrolls (the Red Sox had the 2nd highest in baseball when they won the WS in 2004 - he's a genius!). And on top of that, just as in Boston, if he leads the Cubs to a championship he will be revered forever in that town. So really, smart guy in more ways than one, but it's a lot easier to do it in a big market with financial advantages than it is in Milwaukee or Tampa.

[Surhoff5]

Theo wouldn't have the Cubs in this position without all those high draft picks and the Cubs checkbook.

 

Agreed. He appears to be a good GM, but he also has taken jobs in Boston and Chicago - two clubs with massive payrolls (the Red Sox had the 2nd highest in baseball when they won the WS in 2004 - he's a genius!). And on top of that, just as in Boston, if he leads the Cubs to a championship he will be revered forever in that town. So really, smart guy in more ways than one, but it's a lot easier to do it in a big market with financial advantages than it is in Milwaukee or Tampa.

 

I don't think you two are giving him nearly enough credit. The main reason the Cubs are good is his trades for Arietta, Rizzo, Russell, Hendricks, his rule 5 pick of Rondon, his drafting of Bryant (yes having 2nd pick helps), and value signings like Hammel and Fowler. The only two real high priced guys that have panned out are Zobrist and Lester.

 

In Boston, he had the balls to trade Nomar and also don't forget signing Big Papi when he was a nobody.

 

If Sternes can use the Brewers' assets to land future superstars like Arietta and Rizzo, I would be beyond thrilled.

[BuckyBrewer61]

Don't get me wrong, I think Epstein is a good GM. But in Milwaukee you could sign Papi as a nobody, then once he hits free agency he's gone and isn't around for a 2004 World Series run. Neither is Pedro nor Manny Ramirez. If Milwaukee had Boston, Chicago, or New York money, Sabathia is probably around for a few more playoff runs, and Prince and Greinke too. And you could say "Doug Melvin deserves credit for trading for CC and Zach, and for drafting Prince," which is undoubtedly true, but the large payroll would deserve credit for keeping them here.

 

In Chicago Epstein has signed Hayward to an $184M deal, and yes I know he's been terrible but you can take that risk when there's more money where that came from. Case in point, the $12.5M they are paying Edwin Jackson this year...who they released. Also this year paying Lackey $16M, Fowler $13M ($5M deferred), Hammel $11 ($2M deferred). Their core is young and cheap and Epstein deserves plenty of credit for that, but they still have the 7th highest payroll in baseball.

 

So yes, I think Epstein is a very good GM and I'd be thrilled if Stearns is that good too. But those aren't contracts you can hand out/absorb in Milwaukee, and so Stearns has a tougher job cut out for him. Epstein to me is like Derek Jeter - yes he is really good, but I doubt everyone would be talking so much about him if he spent his entire career in Cincinnati or Milwaukee. And that's not necessarily a knock on Theo, he knows what he's doing in job selection, and I give him credit for that too.

[BuckyBrewer61]

Oh and PS, sorry if getting off topic, I also have to jump in on the Splitterpfj appreciation! I peruse twitter, MLB trade rumors, blogs ad nauseum this time of year, but of course the best info comes from Brewerfan!

[splitterpfj]

Thank you everyone.

 

It's all kind of funny how this stuff happened to me. I started that LinkedIn Group right before the MLB season started, back in 2008 - I thought I'd find a bunch of people like all of us, and that was fine with me.

 

Well, I did find a bunch of people like us, but to my surprise, I began hearing from coaches, players, writers, agents, equipment guys, authors, ex-players, adult children of ex-players - the whole lexicon. That hadn't been my intention, but that's what I got, and I was able to build friendships with a lot of great people from throughout the baseball industry.

 

Today, out of nowhere, one of them called me to talk about something else, and the conversation wound up as a trade deadline/Brewers chat - (he does not work for the Brewers). i asked if I could share his observations and opinions, and he said I could, as long as I kept his name out of it, which of course I agreed to do.

 

I'm glad so many of you enjoyed it, if I hear more, I'll put it here.

 

-Todd

[Jose Cardenal1]

Fantastic stuff Splitterpjf. I didn't realize you had made so many contacts in the industry.

 

I know you won't disclose your source but my guess is that this particular call came from an agent. Originally I thought it would have to be a scout given the comment about seeing Brandon Woodruff pitch, but how many scouts would be that in tune with what is happening with another teams front office. An agent makes some sense and reading the comments again I can see them coming from an agent who has dealt with Stearns on some level and likely has a player or two in the organization.

 

Sorry, just hard to resist trying to puzzle this stuff out.

[JohnBriggs12]

Don't get me wrong, I think Epstein is a good GM. But in Milwaukee you could sign Papi as a nobody, then once he hits free agency he's gone and isn't around for a 2004 World Series run. Neither is Pedro nor Manny Ramirez. If Milwaukee had Boston, Chicago, or New York money, Sabathia is probably around for a few more playoff runs, and Prince and Greinke too. And you could say "Doug Melvin deserves credit for trading for CC and Zach, and for drafting Prince," which is undoubtedly true, but the large payroll would deserve credit for keeping them here.

 

In Chicago Epstein has signed Hayward to an $184M deal, and yes I know he's been terrible but you can take that risk when there's more money where that came from. Case in point, the $12.5M they are paying Edwin Jackson this year...who they released. Also this year paying Lackey $16M, Fowler $13M ($5M deferred), Hammel $11 ($2M deferred). Their core is young and cheap and Epstein deserves plenty of credit for that, but they still have the 7th highest payroll in baseball.

 

So yes, I think Epstein is a very good GM and I'd be thrilled if Stearns is that good too. But those aren't contracts you can hand out/absorb in Milwaukee, and so Stearns has a tougher job cut out for him. Epstein to me is like Derek Jeter - yes he is really good, but I doubt everyone would be talking so much about him if he spent his entire career in Cincinnati or Milwaukee. And that's not necessarily a knock on Theo, he knows what he's doing in job selection, and I give him credit for that too.

 

Amen to all of that. If anyone thinks the Brewers can simply follow the Cub formula and 5 years from now the Brewers will have an entire All Star infield or be set to contend for 5+ years is dreaming. Brewers had an all home grown group from basically 2007 to 2012. That group made 2 playoff appearances (could have been 3 or 4) over basically a 6 year span from 2007 to 2012. They had to surrender the subsequent years to secure enough starting pitching just to make those 2 playoffs. I'm of the belief that even if Stearns does everything right, they still won't be able to retain the top talent and will have to move a lot of pieces just to rent a premier guy here and there to get them over the top once or twice and into the playoffs.

 

Meanwhile, how many long time suffering Brewer fans in their 70's and 80's won't be around in 5 years?