2006 Player Breakdowns

[colbyjack]

I honestly can't tell you who the best groundball pitcher is, but I can tell you who profiles as a pretty good groundball pitcher. I'm assuming you asked after reading the profiles of Buck and Hughes, whose stuff should allow them both to induce a lot of groundballs at the next level. Buck would probably be the best right now. Derrick Lutz from George Washington may profile as a closer at the pro level, but his fastball offers a fair amount of movement in the low-90s.

 

From the HS side I think Jason Stoffel and Shawn Tolleson will induce a lot of grounders. Both master the strike zone pretty well and know it's better to work down than up. Lefty Brett Anderson also has shown that he knows how to pitch and work well down in the zone.

[homer]

Colby,

From the looks of your top 30, it seems very pitching heavy. Is the distribution of pitcher to position player normally this one sided or does it just depend on the draft class?

[colbyjack]

The talent for next year's draft definitely favors the pitchers, and talent often fluctuates one way or the other. For instance, last year, the top 5 picks were hitters, as well as 11 of the top 15. Things evened out in the first round after that, with 17 hitters being taken overall in round one, which is nearly a wash.

 

2004 was the opposite, with 8 of the top 10 picks being pitchers, with 19 pitchers being selected in total in the first round. This year likely will mirror 2004.

 

I am currently working on a story that should be posted on the homepage next Monday in which I look at the success of the players taken in the first round in the drafts of the 90s which kind of is a follow up of my player procurement story from a year ago. Along with the story I posted from a Mets fan on both the minor league and trade rumors forum, there is a fair amount of evidence pointing to taking hitters over pitchers when so much money is involved.

[brettac1]

there is a fair amount of evidence pointing to taking hitters over pitchers when so much money is involved.

 

I agree wholeheartedly. I'd prefer to accumulate as much upper-level offensive talent as possible, and then deal from the surplus for either veteran MLB pitchers (age 25-29 or so) or upper-level pitching prospects. I'd rather see the attrited pitchers being weeded out on other teams dime.

[colbyjack]

Jon Jay-CF-Miami

 

Freshman Year, Miami, 2004:

.368/.447/.513 in 234 ABs, 14 2B, 1 3B, 6 HR, 28:37 BB:K, 19 for 26 SBs, 4 Es

 

Summer of 2004, Valley League:

.307 batting average, .370 on-base percentage

 

Sophomore Year, Miami, 2005:

.408/.490/.531 in 211 ABs, 17 2B, 3 3B, 1 HR, 29:26 BB:K, 13 for 20 SBs, 2 Es

 

Summer of 2005, Team USA:

.262/.352/.311 in 61 ABs, 1 2B, 1 3B, 8:11 BB:K, 7 for 7 SBs, 0 Es

 

Cumulative Statistics:

.372/.454/.496 in 506 ABs, 32 2B, 5 3B, 7 HR, 65:74 BB:K, 48 for 64 SBs (75%), 6 Es*

 

*Cumulative statistics do not include numbers from the summer of 2004 as they were not available.

 

Jon Jay is a very good pure hitter that also has a very solid tool set. His bat is his best attribute, with a line drive swing and a disciplined eye that should allow him to hit for a high average while making good contact, drawing plenty of walks and not striking out much. While he hasn't hit for much power during his collegiate career, he does have good pop in his bat, with very good power to the opposite field. He was named the #3 prospect in the Valley League according to Baseball America during the summer of 2004, and his play prompted one coach to say that he hit the ball just like he played the game: Hard.

 

On top of his ability to hit, Jay also has very good speed. He shows natural instincts in centerfield, and can cover the gaps with his speed. That speed has also allowed him to swipe quite a few stolen bases during his college career, which makes him an ideal leadoff prototype. While he played LF his first two years at Miami, he is moving over to CF during his junior year and has Gold Glove potential at the position given his speed, range, instincts and above-average throwing arm.

 

Jay sounds like the type of player that is slight of build, but he does have a 6'0", 200 pound frame. He bats and throws left-handed, and was slowed down last year by a nagging hand injury that sapped some of his power. With a healthy spring Jay could do a lot of damage for the Hurricanes, although they did lose two big bats a year ago in Braun & Katin, both of whom are now in the Brewers' organization. Their absence may cause Jay to bat third or fourth like he did a year ago, but as noted, at the pro level he profiles the best at the top of the order.

 

Jay may give Colin Curtis a run for his money as the best pure college hitter this spring, and could be a first-rounder come June.

[sbrylski]

Looking at the rankings, I would love to draft the catcher Max Sapp. Crazy home run power.

 

I have a question about him though. One report says this:

 

While he has a very strong arm and calls a good game, his body is a little on the soft side, and there is some concern if he'll stay behind the plate. If he is moved, his likely destination would be first base.

 

What do they mean by having a soft body? Injury prone? And if he has a strong arm, wouldn't 1st base negate that skill?

[DHonks]

without knowing the facts about this guy, it would seem "soft-body" for a catcher means the guy doesn't have a 6-pack, or just looks like an average guy. He's not a physical specimen. I've been around Jeremy Brown, and heard that. And my favorite was A's catcher Kurt Suzuki looking at Prince taking fielding drills. He turned to me, and said "you think he's big and fat, you oughta see Landon Powell. Man he makes Prince look small."

 

I'm not so sure I want to see a 270 lb catcher. I might not want to eat for a month

[colbyjack]

What do they mean by having a soft body? Injury prone? And if he has a strong arm, wouldn't 1st base negate that skill?

 

DHonks explained it well, and really, if the player has shown that he can handle the position it really doesn't matter what their body type is.

 

But scouts are trying to project what the future has in store for players. Keep in mind, when you say "they" you mean me, since I wrote the report. When I saw Sapp I couldn't help but marvel at his bat, but he doesn't have the perfect body type. When I talked to scouts in the stands they said basically the same thing, something along the lines of "I wish he were more athletic." But really nothing right now is forcing him to move elsewhere. His body is just more mature than most high schoolers, and some worry that if he continues to "mature" he may just grow right out of the position.

 

You can kind of see his body type in the picture that I provided of him that I took at the Aflac game:

 

http://www.brewerfan.net/images/playerpix/amateur/max_sapp.jpg

 

And he had an outstanding defensive performance at the WWBA tourney that opened quite a few eyes and likely dispelled a few concerns that he would have to move to another position. His bat is legit, and he is one of my faves for this year's draft (which you can tell by my rankings, as most people don't project him to be a first-round pick at this point in time).

 

As for his arm strength relative to 1B, there's nothing wrong with having a strong arm at the position. While you would rather have that arm at 3B or RF for instance, Sapp probably doesn't have the lateral quickness nor the footspeed to play at either one of those positions. Just my humble opinion, but if he can't stick at catcher, he's likely a first baseman, and he may hit enough to justify that move (a la Daric Barton).

[brettac1]

I really like Longoria because of my penchant for Dirtbags, but I have some concerns about his discipline. Anything interesting that scouts have said about him, Patrick?

[colbyjack]

Sorry Brett, nothing to share above and beyond what I have already on Longoria. I tend to get more news on the prep players.

 

I can tell you that he was the MVP of the Cape League by hitting .299/.331/.500 with 16 extra-base hits. That alone is mighty impressive, and for me speaks louder than his lack of ideal plate discipline at this point in time.

 

Without looking at the numbers, Troy Tulowitzki wasn't the most disciplined hitter either IIRC. Longoria is poised for a big year, much like Tulo was a year ago.

[GagneCY03]

Hey colbyjack (Hope you remember me from the Dodgers' Scout.com board)

 

I was wondering if I could get your input on a few players. First, I wanted to know who has the better present and future stuff between Jordan Walden and Matt Latos. I also wanted to know what you thought of Colton Willems, and if you think his stock could rise closer to the draft due to his stuff. Thanks much.

[colbyjack]

Welcome GagneCy03.

 

Walden vs. Latos is a hard call right now. There stuff is practically equal. I personally like Walden better because I like his body type better, although there is nothing wrong with Latos' frame. Last summer I'm pretty sure they both touched 97 and they both flashed an impressive curveball. Right now, you can't say one has better stuff than the other.

 

Colton Willems' stock could definitely rise. He hit 94 in the Aflac game (the scoreboard clock registered 96 for Willems, but that gun was very erratic), and showed a very impressive curveball. He's a nice, grounded young man as well, which always is a plus to me. I saw at other events last summer he was in the 95-96 range.

[GagneCY03]

Thanks cj. BA posted their HS Prospects Top 100 list and Best Tools lists, and they seem to talk up Latos a little more than Walden. I guess only time will tell which one ends up on top.

 

Also, Cody Johnson's stock has fallen since the AFLAC game and I wanted to get your opinion on what will happen to his status. Do you think he'll bounce back and go in the top half of the first or do you see him slipping to the bottom half or even out of the first altogether? Thanks again.

[colbyjack]

BA did award Jordan Walden with their pitching prospet of the year award at the Aflac awards banquet, so they're going to stick by their guns with him as much as they can. That doesn't mean he's not deserving of a higher ranking.

 

Cody Johnson's power is going to be hard to pass on. BA did note in the story (which I didn't see until you pointed it out, their early draft coverage is hidden a little bit under the high school section, but I'll start a new thread to point that out) that Johnson's 2nd half summer slide hurt his rating a little bit, but I know Perfect Game still ranks Johnson very high. There were quite a few players who didn't perform the best over the summer, as Walden and Latos tailed off as well (and Chris Parmelee didn't hit much last summer, before exploding at the WWBA tourney).

 

My guess is that Johnson bounces back this spring and re-establishes himself towards the top. Keep in mind that BA's (and my) rankings should only be used as a reference. Just because they have Johnson slipping doesn't mean that he actually is in the eyes of scouting directors.

[GagneCY03]

Right, I forgot that BA named Walden their Pitcher of the Year. I'd be thrilled with Walden or Latos at #7.

 

As for Johnson, I actually hoped his stock went down so the Dodgers would have a better chance of drafting him at the end of the first, since I doubt Logan White would go with a hitter at the top.

 

Thanks for the responses, I'll direct my prep player queries to the HS thread from now on.

[natedogge7]

Quote:

---

Right, I forgot that BA named Walden their Pitcher of the Year. I'd be thrilled with Walden or Latos at #7.

---

 

drabek! drabek! drabek!!

[BERGGOD]

Where in the first round do you see him going in the draft?

[colbyjack]

I have Marrero ranked #9 overall, and BA has him ranked as their 2nd or 3rd best prep player, so as of right now he would seem to be a good bet to go in the top 10-15 picks.

[colbyjack]

Let's get back to the player profiles...

 

Ryan Zink-RHP-UIC

 

Freshman Year, UIC, 2004:

9-3, 3 saves, 2.07 ERA, 19 games (11 starts), 95.2 IP, 76 H, 92 K, 15 BB

 

Summer of 2004, Northwoods League:

4-5, 2.03 ERA, 75 IP, 49 H, 75 K, 14 BB

 

Sophomore Year, UIC, 2005:

8-6, 3 saves, 3.78 ERA, 22 games (16 starts), 119 IP, 129 H, 74 K, 32 BB

 

Summer of 2005: Did not play

 

Cumulative Statistics:

21-14, 6 saves, 2.77 ERA, 41 games* (27 starts*), 289.2 IP, 254 H, 241 K, 61 BB

 

* Represents incomplete statistics since full stats from summer league were not available

 

Ryan Zink may be a familiar name, as a Madison native and former 47th round draft pick of the Brewers from the 2003 draft. He was rated the best Wisconsin draft-eligible prospect that year, and the Gatorade High School Player of the Year for Wisconsin.

 

As you can tell by his stats, he didn't miss a beat when stepping on UIC's (Illinois-Chicago) campus. His stats weren't as dominant during his sophomore season, but we worked a lot of innings, not only serving as the staff ace, but also working on short days rest and making several relief appearances. He looked extremely good during his time spent with the Madison Mallards during the summer of 2004 in the Northwoods League, in which he was named the league's #3 prospect according to Baseball America. That ranking put him behind Lance Broadway, a RHP from TCU that was a first-round pick last June, and Max Scherzer, who currently is my 2nd-best draft-eligible prospect for this June.

 

Zink has a large frame that is expected to carry the burden of a heavy workload at 6'5", 225 pounds. Despite that frame he's not a flamethrower, as he works in the 88-90 range with his fastball touching 92. His slider is a strikeout pitch, and he also commands a changeup pretty well. He's at his best changing speeds with all three pitches, working up, down, inside & out of the strike zone. He has shown an uncanny ability to pitch since high school, and has continue that pitching savvy during his first two years at UIC.

 

Given his lack of ideal stuff, he's not ranked high amongst his peers by Baseball America, but with another big spring, one that mirrors his freshman season more than his sophomore campaign, he could easily be a top 3 round selection.

[colbyjack]

Blair Erickson-RHP-UC Irvine

 

Freshman Year, UC Irvine, 2004:

1-3, 4.10 ERA, 30 appearances (all in relief), 17 saves, 37.1 IP, 16 H, 52 K, 22 BB

 

Sophomore Year, UC Irvine, 2005:

1-2, 1.80 ERA, 28 appearances (all in relief), 10 saves, 35 IP, 16 H, 52 K, 22 BB

 

Cumulative Statistics:

2-5, 2.99 ERA, 58 appearances (all in relief), 27 saves, 72.1 IP, 49 H, 103 K, 43 BB

 

Erickson also pitched for Team USA during the summer of 2004, but those statistics were not available. Despite trying out for TUSA for the summer of 2005, he did not make the team, and I could not find where he played last summer, if anywhere.

 

Just look at Erickson's cumulative statistics and you can see his dominance. The walks need to come down, but the hits allowed and the strikeouts/inning ratios are very impressive. While he opened most observers' eyes after recording 17 saves as a freshman, he posted much better ratios as a sophomore despite saving only 10 games, still a lofty total for a college closer.

 

And that is how Erickson profiles at the next level. There are no plans to move him to the starting rotation, at UC Irvine for his junior year or upon his arrival to professional baseball as he readily admits he has problems pacing himself. With a stocky and strong 6'1", 210 pound frame, fastballs explode out of Erickson's fluid delivery. His fastball is consistently clocked in the low-90s, touching the mid-90s with nasty, late movement. His low-80s slider makes him virtually unhittable.

 

Erickson stands to be the next college closer poised to rise to first-round considerations, following a growing trend of such players that includes Chad Cordero, Huston Street and Craig Hansen. Like those three pitchers, Erickson just might find himself pitching out of a big-league rotation come September of this y[/i]

[colbyjack]

I'm going to breakdown a pair of pitchers next, since they are scheduled to duel one another Friday night as Long Beach State hosts USC in a home-away-home series. Those two pitchers are righties Jared Hughes and Ian Kennedy.

 

For those of you with interest in college baseball, and/or those itching to listen to baseball any way you can get it, Long Beach State broadcasts many of their games for free. Follow this link (gametime Friday is 8:30 CST, and Mac users will be happy to know that the radio broadcast uses Quicktime, not some stupid archaic Windows-only program http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif ):

 

www.longbeachstate.com/gen/thisweek.html

 

I forgot to mention that the matchup is even more intriguing, as it is a non-conference, cross-town rivalry that features two preseason top-25 teams according to Baseball America (USC-17, LBSU-22).

 

____________________________________________________________

 

Jared Hughes-RHP-Long Beach State

 

Freshman Year, UC Santa Clara, 2004:

0-1, 4.79 ERA, 20.2 IP, 21 H, 12 K, 13 BB

 

Sophomore Year, Long Beach State, 2005:

8-3, 2.83 ERA, 15 games (14 starts), 89 IP, 67 H, 87 K, 23 BB

 

Summer of 2005, Cape Cod League:

7-0, 1.62 ERA, 8 games (7 starts), 50 IP, 37 H, 54 K, 11 BB

 

Cumulative Statistics:

15-4, 2.71 ERA, 23* games/21* starts, 159.2 IP, 125 H, 153 K, 47 BB

 

* Did not have full statistics from freshman season at UC Santa Clara. I'm also not sure where (and if) he played during the summer of 2004.

 

Hughes was extremely well known coming out of high school, and was projected as an early first-round pick entering the spring of 2003. His status as a prospect slipped a little bit that year, but was still considered a late-first or early-second-round pick. However, rumors of lofty bonus aspirations caused him to fall to the 16th round.

 

In high school Hughes received those high marks with his initimidating frame at 6'7", 230 pounds, and equally intimidating stuff. He threw in the mid-90s, touching a little higher than that on occasion, with a wicked slider. His stuff isn't quite the same now, but he stills lives in the low-90s, but he has learned how to pitch in that time. As shown by his statistics above, he limits baserunners, via hits and walks, and he has struck out nearly one batter an inning during his college career. He shows that he knows how to pitch, and his style will likely transfer well to the professional level. He tends to work outside early in the count, trying to see just where the umpire's outside corner is. When he finds it, and he starts to induce some clumsy swing, he'll come inside to jam hitters and break a lot of bats, which makes his low-90s fastball look a lot faster. His fastball also has good movement on it, which induces a lot of groundballs, and he pitches like a prototypical sinker/slider pitcher working down and out predominantly.

 

Hughes was a starter for the Cape Cod League All-Star Game last summer, and he was named the Cape's 18th best prospect according to Baseball America. Jack Zduriencik was rumored to be scouting Hughes pretty hard in high school, and you can be sure he hasn't forgotten about him.

 

Ian Kennedy-RHP-USC

 

Freshman Year, USC, 2004:

7-2, 2.91 ERA, 16 games (15 starts), 92.2 IP, 86 H, 120 K, 31 BB

 

Summer of 2004, Team USA:

3.81 ERA, 26 IP, 40 K

 

Sophomore Year, USC, 2005:

12-3, 2.54 ERA, 18 games (17 starts), 117 IP, 85 H, 158 K, 38 BB

 

Summer of 2005, Team USA:

4-1, 2.89 ERA, 5 games (all starts), 28 IP, 11 H, 35 K, 10 BB

 

Cumulative Statistics:

23*-6*, 2.83 ERA, 39* games/37* starts, 263.2 IP, 182* H, 353 K, 79 BB

 

* Represents incomplete statistics since I could not find full line from his 2004 TUSA stint, although keep in mind ERA, innings pitched and strikeouts are complete.

 

Just look at Kennedy's stats and you'll walk away impressed. He strikes out more than 12 batters on average per 9 innings pitched, throughout his entire collegiate career. He became USC's staff ace as soon as he stepped on campus. Like Hughes, Kennedy was a well-known commodity coming out of high school, but an injury and smallish stature (along with rumored advisement by Scott Boras) caused him to fall. He was teammates, and good friends, with Ian Stewart in high school.

 

While Kennedy doesn't have the greatest size at 6'1", 195 pounds, nor stuff (he usually works in the low-90s), he has a very good curveball, a pretty good changeup and he commands the strike zone extremely well. His best asset is his aggressiveness, as he constantly is on the attack, which leads to his high strikeout totals. He has a compact delivery, and his pitching style is similar to the Brewers' Ben Sheets.

 

Kennedy is poised for a huge season at USC, since he already has had two very good years both at USC and for Team USA. His name & number have already been retired, and he's already labeled the next great USC ace, following in the footsteps of big-league pitchers like Mark Prior and Barry Zito. If he doesn't scare teams away with his rumored Scott Boras affiliation and stays healthy, Kennedy should be taken very very early in the draft this June.

[colbyjack]

Dave Huff-LHP-UCLA

 

Freshman Year, UC Irvine, 2004:

3-0, 3.00 ERA, 31 games (2 starts), 42 IP, 51 H, 26 K, 10 BB

 

Summer of 2004, Cape Cod League:

3-3, 1.09 ERA, 12 games (4 starts), 49.1 IP, 37 H, 48 K, 9 BB

 

Sophomore Year, Cypress Community College, 2005:

4-2, 3.24 ERA, 86 IP, 91 K*

 

Summer of 2005, Cape Cod League:

2-2, 1.46 ERA, 6 games (5 starts), 37 IP, 27 H, 49 K, 4 BB

 

Cumulative Statistics:

12-7, 2.39 ERA, 49* games (11* starts), 214.1 IP, 115* H, 214 K, 23* BB

 

* Full statistics at Cypress CC not available.

 

Huff gets a lot of comparisons to Barry Zito in that his fastball maxes out at 88 mph, but he keeps getting hitters out by changing speeds exceptionally well and using his own signature pitch: A nasty changeup. That changeup has compared to Trevor Hoffman's, so you might as well think of Matt Wise's too. So even if his stuff isn't good enough to get out big-leaguers consistently as a starter, that pitch alone should make him an effective short reliever.

 

The changeup is so effective because it is thrown with the exact same arm speed as his fastball, and tails away from right-handed batters. He also throws a good enough curveball that keeps hitters honest, particularly left-handed hitters. His lack of dominant stuff does make him hittable, but he doesn't hurt himself by walking batters. He has very good control, and he has averaged a strikeout per inning during his college career, a great statistical combination for any pitcher.

 

His fastball velocity is still going to draw scrutiny. It reportedly was down to the 82-84 range late last spring, which was often blamed on some forearm tenderness. That along with his reported bonus demands (2nd round money), caused him to fall in the draft. His bonus demands were largely because he was intent on transferring to UCLA this year, re-joining his coach at UC Irvine his freshman year. He is expected to provide stability to the Bruins' weekend rotation this spring, and should be an early draft pick come June.

[DHonks]

colby, for reference, it is Santa Clara University, formerly University of Santa Clara (before Southern Cal bought the rights to USC from Santa Clara), not UC-Santa Clara.

 

feel free to delete this post. This is the same school that produced Joey Gomes (minor leaguer for the DRays), Randy Winn, Steve Nash, Kurt Rambis, Brandy Chastain, Brent Jones, etc.

[colbyjack]

No need to delete the post, thanks for the head's up.

[DHonks]

I just figured since you do a lot of writing here and for the other site, it couldn't hurt to point out the difference in name. Some people will see mistakes like that as a lack of time put into researching, and completely ignore how much detail you provide.