Stearns' deadline approach

[BadgerFan]

Stearns holding on to Lucroy past the deadline would be playing with fire. I think we can all agree that Luc's trade value is at an all time high right now. The longer Luc is a Brewer, his value will trend nowhere but down. Can you imagine if he has some fluke injury after August 1? What if he hits .220 next April?

 

I get holding out for the best deal and we still have time before the deadline but if Lucroy is still a Brewer on 8/2 I'll be extremely disappointed.

[1992casey]

We've talked about this in the Transactions forum. Catchers — especially starting catchers — rarely change hands at the trade deadline. Like others here, I'd love to reap the benefits of a Lucroy trade. But given the circumstances, I wouldn't be surprised if it didn't happen until the off-season.

[BallFour]

I put this in the Lucroy thread...deserves to be here as well

 

@Haudricourt

 

"Stearns agreed that he knows what his next move will be but not what other GM’s will be, which keeps it interesting. Always one call away."

 

Reading into this can we all just calm down on Stearns squandering Lucroy as an asset. Can we stop panicking like its the night of August 1st with no trades.

[MadThinker88]

Stearns holding on to Lucroy past the deadline would be playing with fire. I think we can all agree that Luc's trade value is at an all time high right now. The longer Luc is a Brewer, his value will trend nowhere but down. Can you imagine if he has some fluke injury after August 1? What if he hits .220 next April?

 

I get holding out for the best deal and we still have time before the deadline but if Lucroy is still a Brewer on 8/2 I'll be extremely disappointed.

 

I will agree the Lucroy has trade value but his value was at its all time highest after the 2014 season. Near league MVP, pre injuries of 2015 and 3 years of contract control at a very manageable cost.

 

I do agree that not moving Lucroy for the best trade package/ offer now is playing with fire..

[MrTPlush]

I feel like I see it every day and I think I can speak for most here... We know Lucroy had his highest value after the 2014 season.

 

When people say it is at "an all time high" they either mean: 1) This is the highest it has ever been in the time he has actually been someone we would consider trading OR 2) Most likely they mean his value will not getting any higher than this from the present into the future.

[Roderick]

Stearns holding on to Lucroy past the deadline What if he hits .220 next April?

 

There is no way that Lucroy isn't traded this offseason if he isn't traded this week. He isn't going to sign another deal with the Brewers, so they aren't going to go through 2017 and just get the one QO pick. So he gets traded during the offseason, so whoever trades for him, knows they at least can get the qualifying offer pick for him as worst case scenario.

[monty57]

BP had a study at GM trades a few years ago and there definitely appeared to be diminishing returns on trades for the most active GMs.

 

Couldn't that be because when they are making a lot of trades, some of the players they're trading aren't all that good? Trading a so-so veteran who will be a FA is probably more about letting the player get a chance on a playoff team and saving a few bucks than it is on getting someone back who will ever make a MLB team.

[Point Beer Is Best]

I hope the old saying "deadlines spur action" holds true, because with roughly 27 hours left before the finish line the only deal made thus far involved Aaron Hill.

[Oxy]

This is a good thread, at least since MNBrew's excellent post. I have no problem building around Braun and Luc for the next 5 years. I also habe no problem trading them.

[MadThinker88]

This is a good thread, at least since MNBrew's excellent post. I have no problem building around Braun and Luc for the next 5 years. I also habe no problem trading them.

 

It will be much harder to rebuild with Lucroy & Braun (to a lesser degree) still on the roster thru the end of 2017 or longer.. You have to believe there would be reduced returns/ productivity as time moves forward.

 

Lucroy needs to bring in multiple pieces as part of the rebuild. Braun (w/ contract, history & injuries) will be tougher to move but if someone was willing to trade for him, do it!!!

 

We can agree that not all prospects make it, but the more talent coming thru the minors, the better chance you have some successful transistions from prospect to major league talent.

 

There is also the chance if you 'hit' on multiple guys for a single position, you can use that depth to fill needs where the prospects you got did not pan out..

[MNBrew]

This is a good thread, at least since MNBrew's excellent post. I have no problem building around Braun and Luc for the next 5 years. I also habe no problem trading them.

Kind words, Oxy. Thanks.

 

One other point on the Braun/Lucroy as our season/credible vets position: One response was to go out in a couple winters & sign Votto & Archer (as random FA examples from that future offseason). The problem is, when the Brewers are at the point of needing to sign top-level FAs to put them over the top (like the Cubs started doing with Lester last year, Zobrist/etc. this past winter), history has shown that those are guys the Brewers have a really tough time attracting -- or at least closing a deal on b/c someone else comes in with bigger mega-deal. Well, Braun's already here and under contract for 4 more years, so you wouldn't have to figure out how to lure him as a FA. Lucroy, that's a whole different kettle of fish given the deadline and all that's gone on, but however small, it's technically still a possibility he's in that boat down the road, too, if the Brewers offer him the extension he wants AND the rebuilding/retooling process looks really good a whole lot sooner than initially thought (kinda like the Cubs from 2 years ago to last year & this year).

 

Again, I get why people want to trade 'em. And while I agree the overall rebuild going on is a good thing, from the contrarian viewpoint, two things: 1) there's the bird-in-the-hand thing, which the grass-is-greener and/or change-is-necessary viewpoint tends to forget about or dismiss out of hand, and 2) no matter how many blue-chip prospects we draft/develop/acquire, there's zero guarantee we develop another bat anytime soon who's able to match Ryan Braun's usually-elite production or a catcher who's anywhere as near the complete package that Lucroy is.

 

In the end, if the rebuild accomplishes what it needs to -- the Brewers are back to being perennial contenders centered around a strong core of young talent -- and one/both of Braun & Lucroy are still productive members of the team, then keeping them is no hindrance at all to the ultimate end goal. . . . Really, did it hurt the Red Sox at all when they struggled over the past couple years to still have David Ortiz on the team? They surely never would've traded him - perish the thought! It's not the same argument, but in a way it's the exact same argument.

[logan82]

Again, I get why people want to trade 'em. And while I agree the overall rebuild going on is a good thing, from the contrarian viewpoint, two things: 1) there's the bird-in-the-hand thing, which the grass-is-greener and/or change-is-necessary viewpoint tends to forget about or dismiss out of hand, and 2) no matter how many blue-chip prospects we draft/develop/acquire, there's zero guarantee we develop another bat anytime soon who's able to match Ryan Braun's usually-elite production or a catcher who's anywhere as near the complete package that Lucroy is.

The bird in the hand thing is not overlooked. It has been considered but is possibly riskier than prospects. There is zero guarantee Braun and Lucroy can keep up the production we are getting out of them now. Especially 2-3 years from now when they would be surrounded by the young talent in our system. In fact there is a good chance they will be in a decline especially Lucroy. Catchers do not age well.

 

It is really doubtful we will develop a player of Braun's caliber. That is to much to ask of any prospect. Same with a player of Lucroy's caliber.

[MNBrew]

Or it's possibly not riskier. Ultimately going either direction is a risk.

 

- Braun could still be Braun or he could be something less.

- Lucroy could still be Lucroy or he could be something less. Thinking especially of Yadier Molina, as much as catchers tend to decline more significantly in less time, a less-than-Lucroy version of Lucroy may well still be much better than so many of the clowns the Brewers have tried to pass off as MLB catchers (as noted in the Catchers WOAH SOLVDD (or whatever it's called) thread).

- Any prospects acquired for one or both of those guys could be productive MLB players or never see the MLB active roster.

 

I get why folks want them traded -- you can't spend any time reading stuff on this board over the past month and still be clueless about that! I just believe it's not the only potential way to a good result.

 

The funny thing about your final comment is that we actually did develop players of Braun's & Lucroy's caliber -- those two themselves. Of the two, Lucroy has far exceeded what most projected for him when he came up, both offensively & defensively.

[clancyphile]

Or it's possibly not riskier. Ultimately going either direction is a risk.

 

- Braun could still be Braun or he could be something less.

- Lucroy could still be Lucroy or he could be something less. Thinking especially of Yadier Molina, as much as catchers tend to decline more significantly in less time, a less-than-Lucroy version of Lucroy may well still be much better than so many of the clowns the Brewers have tried to pass off as MLB catchers (as noted in the Catchers WOAH SOLVDD (or whatever it's called) thread).

- Any prospects acquired for one or both of those guys could be productive MLB players or never see the MLB active roster.

 

I get why folks want them traded -- you can't spend any time reading stuff on this board over the past month and still be clueless about that! I just believe it's not the only potential way to a good result.

 

The funny thing about your final comment is that we actually did develop players of Braun's & Lucroy's caliber -- those two themselves. Of the two, Lucroy has far exceeded what most projected for him when he came up, both offensively & defensively.

 

I agree, because a trade is not the only offseason option.

 

Lucroy could always be extended in the offseason as well. And over the course of a five-year deal, he'd still be pretty good. 2015 looks to be more a fluke than a herald of significant decline.

[DuWayne Steurer]

 

Lucroy could always be extended in the offseason as well. And over the course of a five-year deal, he'd still be pretty good. 2015 looks to be more a fluke than a herald of significant decline.

 

 

Lucroy has been exceptionally vocal about wanting to play on a contender, and not on a rebuilding team. The Brewers won't be contenders within at least the next few years most likely, and Lucroy is on the wrong side of 30 for a team with the Brewers to be thinking about big dollar contracts for a catcher.

 

I give this about a 0% chance of happening.

[jerichoholicninja]

Or it's possibly not riskier. Ultimately going either direction is a risk.

 

- Braun could still be Braun or he could be something less.

- Lucroy could still be Lucroy or he could be something less. Thinking especially of Yadier Molina, as much as catchers tend to decline more significantly in less time, a less-than-Lucroy version of Lucroy may well still be much better than so many of the clowns the Brewers have tried to pass off as MLB catchers (as noted in the Catchers WOAH SOLVDD (or whatever it's called) thread).

- Any prospects acquired for one or both of those guys could be productive MLB players or never see the MLB active roster.

 

I get why folks want them traded -- you can't spend any time reading stuff on this board over the past month and still be clueless about that! I just believe it's not the only potential way to a good result.

 

The funny thing about your final comment is that we actually did develop players of Braun's & Lucroy's caliber -- those two themselves. Of the two, Lucroy has far exceeded what most projected for him when he came up, both offensively & defensively.

 

I'm not sure how much the Brewers "developed" Braun. He didn't even spend two full seasons in the minors and raked at every level he played. He would be the player he is now no matter what team drafted him.

[logan82]

- Braun could still be Braun or he could be something less.

- Lucroy could still be Lucroy or he could be something less.

They are going to be something less. Maybe not this year and maybe not next year but soon. That is the point of trading them now instead of waiting two years until we have enough talent around them.