Stearns' deadline approach

[DougJonesChangeUp]

Anybody else getting nervous we may be left out during the trade deadline?

[jerichoholicninja]

Anybody else getting nervous we may be left out during the trade deadline?

 

Have been since Lucroy left Arizona with the team. I think Stearns is asking too much and everyone has moved on to cheaper options.

[DougJonesChangeUp]

I'm sure other GMs are hoping the young Stearns is getting nervous too. Will be interesting to see if he sticks with his appraisal even if it nets us no prospects before winter.

[homer]

Anybody else getting nervous we may be left out during the trade deadline?

 

Have been since Lucroy left Arizona with the team. I think Stearns is asking too much and everyone has moved on to cheaper options.

 

 

Then he trades him during the off season.

[MoreTrife]

Anybody else getting nervous we may be left out during the trade deadline?

 

Have been since Lucroy left Arizona with the team. I think Stearns is asking too much and everyone has moved on to cheaper options.

 

 

Then he trades him during the off season.

 

 

Yep. Never back down!! If he leaves in a year then we get a compensation pick.

[Boomer5]

I think Stearns has several deals lined up he is just pushing for sweeteners.

 

Luc and at least one of the relievers will be gone. There's way too much smoke there.

[MNBrew]

I'm not fond of Jim Bowden at all, but I spent a lot of yesterday driving and listening to MLBNetwork Radio and beyond his usual noisy drivel, he made one especially good point:

 

**When it comes to any trades, deadlines matter and RARELY is any team going to make their best offer this far ahead of the deadline.**

 

A couple thoughts:

 

- Before we convince ourselves that what hasn't happened yet surely won't happen at all, there's still nearly a week to go. Last year many were convinced that Melvin would prove worthless or inept at the deadline, but between July & August, he made good deals -- a lot of 'em!

- I don't want Stearns to make a deal just to make a deal.

- I'd rather Stearns make NO deal than make a deal for a substandard return.

- Especially regarding the deals he made in the off-season and since, many of the acquisitions were about the young players' potential ceilings. But some were also to have enough depth to fill out the major league team AND field something more respectable in AAA. To me, many of the Broxton/Flores/Middlebrooks/etc. moves were far more about the latter, yet also filling out more of the depth with one-time high-ceiling guys vs. a group of middling never-were-or-never-were-going-to-be's.

[MNBrew]

One other thing:

 

After a very good batch of deadline moves last year and lots more solid moves over the winter, the Brewers are at a point where there's no one they really absolutely have to trade now. There are several guys that could net a very good return. That's a good thing, but it's not the same as needing to move guys (like pending FAs, primarily).

 

There are annually replaceable guys like Boyer & Torres who could be had for a decent price, plus the 3 young/late guys attracting more attention. There's Garza whom no one should want but a Dave Stewart might actually be suckered into taking. Even Gennett's hitting LHPs better and is better now than many of the Brewers' potential replacement options, which shows the type of growth you'd hope to have seen over these couple years.... All are potential deal-able guys, but none are have-to's.

 

Plenty of folks want to see Lucroy traded. I'd prefer to see both him & Braun be career Brewers. In the case of Lucroy, it seems that ship may have sailed after the Brewers declined his extension idea before last year. To me, that's a bummer. Even with some decline into his 30s, he'd still be one of the better catchers in the majors, and I'd have no problem paying him accordingly. Yadier Molina is rather old and has dealt with some injuries, but he remains one of the top catchers in the majors now in spite of that and Cardinal Nation's not exactly screaming for Mozeliak to trade the guy -- nor should they be.

 

I get the whole point of the rebuild approach, and I agree with it (though not to the total tear-down extremes that some feel are the only legit/true way to guarantee success). The only thing a rebuild or general turnover ensures is change. Success is no sure thing. But during a rebuild, as someone noted Stearns has already done, one of the keys is getting guys at different stages of their development. Eventually, in that mix you also need some certainty (as in already-proven guys) and a bit of credible veteran leadership (I'm sure that just made some heads explode), and I'd prefer the certainty that guys like Lucroy & Braun would bring vs. other guys you'd hope end up close to matching what you already know Lucroy & Braun can do in both on- and off-field respects.

 

EDIT: Mis-wrote Smith instead of Torres, fixed in bold above. Wasn't out of my mind, just tired.

[adambr2]

Last year, Carlos Gomez was traded on July 30th. We traded Zack Greinke on July 27th. Carlos Lee was traded on July 29th. Out of the 4 deadline 'blockbusters' that we've made in the last decade, only CC Sabathia came well before the deadline and that was because we pushed hard to get it done early to get as many starts as possible.

 

The trade deadline is also one day later than normal this year. It's possible that Lucroy doesn't get traded, but the fact that he's still here on July 25th isn't cause for alarm. I still think he'll be wearing another uniform in a week.

[monty57]

One other thing:

 

After a very good batch of deadline moves last year and lots more solid moves over the winter, the Brewers are at a point where there's no one they really absolutely have to trade now. There are several guys that could net a very good return. That's a good thing, but it's not the same as needing to move guys (like pending FAs, primarily).

 

Good point. Lucroy makes a lot of sense to trade because (A) He would bring back a huge return, (B) He is only under contract for one more year, and we will probably not be good next year, and © He approached the team for a contract extension, but the sides must not have been close on numbers, so it doesn't appear that he will be extended.

 

The only pending FAs are replaceable guys like Boyer, who should be traded, but won't make much difference one way or the other.

 

That leaves a lot of flexibility, and flexibility is a good thing. Right now, we have three good relievers with team control. Normally, we wouldn't think of trading them, but with the Royals' recent success, the market for relievers is higher than it probably has ever been. The thought that three good-but-not-great relief pitchers could potentially net us three top 100 prospects is mind-boggling, but it's a possibility. And if we can't get that, we can hold onto any or all of them.

 

We also have Ryan Braun, one of the best hitters in the game. If we get an offer we can't refuse, then we trade him. That offer would include multiple top prospects, which would help our future a lot. But, if we don't get that offer, then we retain control of Braun and he continues on as our #3 hitters for years, or at least until someone is willing to pay up to get him.

 

On a lesser note, there's Carter. Same situation. If we get a good offer, meaning prospect(s) who have a good chance of making a difference on the MLB level, then we trade him. Otherwise, we retain our cleanup hitter into next year.

 

While I think that Lucroy and some of our relievers will be traded within the next week, there is no desperation, and as you said, that's a good thing.

[monty57]

I get the whole point of the rebuild approach, and I agree with it (though not to the total tear-down extremes that some feel are the only legit/true way to guarantee success). The only thing a rebuild or general turnover ensures is change. Success is no sure thing. But during a rebuild, as someone noted Stearns has already done, one of the keys is getting guys at different stages of their development. Eventually, in that mix you also need some certainty (as in already-proven guys) and a bit of credible veteran leadership (I'm sure that just made some heads explode), and I'd prefer the certainty that guys like Lucroy & Braun would bring vs. other guys you'd hope end up close to matching what you already know Lucroy & Braun can do in both on- and off-field respects.

 

Also a good point, and probably worthy of it's own thread.

 

I think the depth of the Brewer rebuild depends on what happens with Braun. If they are offered multiple top prospects for him (even if they eat a lot of salary to do so), then they will be bad next year but will have a ridiculous amount of talent (what they currently have plus what they get from Braun, Lucroy, and other trades) coming up through the minors. That would be more of a "tear down" approach, and would probably mean more guys traded this year, but the next wave could be really good. It would just be a few years out.

 

If he is not traded, then I think we also hold onto Carter, only trading Lucroy and 1-2 of Smith/Thornburg/Jeffress. Hopefully from these trades, we can get another SP who could be in the rotation in the not-too-distant future, along with someone to fill one of our holes (CF). If so, then we could have a team missing Lucroy, but with Hader and the new pitcher helping out the rotation, Villar moving to 3B with Arcia at SS, and hopefully a healthy Santana. That team could be better than this year's team, while still allowing for us to play "youngsters" at many positions (i.e. rebuild).

 

Either method is a viable approach, and I could get behind either one. My favorite scenario would have us getting a huge return for Braun. However, I do not want to trade Braun just to save salary, so if the offer isn't there, I'm fine with holding onto him and never being the worst team in the league, while still getting younger and maintaining flexibility.

[bill hAll Star]

Why not just trade Braun/Lucroy and overpay for 2 older vets in 2018 if you're looking for the "experienced vets must be in house" method? I'll take the 5 prospects and have Jay Bruce and Alex Cobb (just throwing names of free agents out there) as the team ambassadors.

[Point Beer Is Best]

I will only get nervous if the Rangers/Indians make a deal for a lesser catcher. There will undoubtedly be a ton of venom spewed towards Stearns if that happens and Lucroy remains a Brewer on August 2nd.

[Boomer5]

With it being such a sellers market out there, I disagree that we don't need to make a trade. Good players are going for massive returns and we need to capitalize on this.

 

If the farm system was where we had all hoped it would be, I would think we could afford to be more selective. As it is stands now, none of our guys have made the jump to our next wave of Braun and Fielder so we wont be set up for a positive future without picking up some elite talent.

[FVBrewerFan]

I completely understand it's the norm for teams to wait until the last day or two to make these deals, but I always wonder WHY.

 

For example, if you're Cleveland and have a burning need for a catcher and a late inning pitcher why do you waste weeks and miss out on all that production? Could be the difference between having HFA or not in the playoffs. All because you want to get picky about the package you're giving up?

 

If some of these teams are truly going for it, it's never made sense to me why they wait so long. I like what the Brewers did with Sabathia, got him a month early and that made a huge difference.

[monty57]

Why not just trade Braun/Lucroy and overpay for 2 older vets in 2018 if you're looking for the "experienced vets must be in house" method? I'll take the 5 prospects and have Jay Bruce and Alex Cobb (just throwing names of free agents out there) as the team ambassadors.

 

It just depends on what you can get for Braun. I, too, would like to trade Braun for good prospects, but I don't want to trade him for junk just to save money. I really don't want to trade him for junk and then go out and spend more money on someone like Bruce. That to me would be counter-productive, so in that case, it's better just holding onto Braun.

 

If Stearns is able to bring back a boatload of prospects for Lucroy, and a boatload of prospects for Braun, plus getting some top 100 guys for our relievers, then you set your sights a couple of years out and trade guys like Carter with two years of control. That would lead to a big down year the next year or two, followed by an extended period where we would continually have good pre-arby players coming from the farm to the MLB team. Once we get to this point, it would then make sense to sign some veteran FAs to fill in the holes where we don't have good pre-arby/arby guys.

 

If we can't get a good deal for Braun, it may make sense to hold onto guys like Carter, and some of Smith/Thornburg/Jeffress for another year and see how things play out, as we can always trade these guys next season.

 

So again, it all depends on what we could get for Braun. Someone posted a link the other day (maybe it was Splitter's "inside stuff"), which said other GMs know Braun is worth a lot, but they may not be willing to pay what he's worth. I think that "if" will be a big determinant as to how deep we cut. If we don't trade Braun, I think there's a greater likelihood that we hold onto Carter and one or two of our late inning relievers.

 

While I have my preferences, reality doesn't always match up with my preferences, so I'm fine with either of these "rebuilds," as long as the end goal remains to build a sustainably good MLB team by keeping a lot of young talent at all levels of the organization and maintaining flexibility. There is not one cut-and-dried path to reach this goal, so we'll see what Stearns can pull out of his hat over the next week.

[monty57]

I completely understand it's the norm for teams to wait until the last day or two to make these deals, but I always wonder WHY.

 

For example, if you're Cleveland and have a burning need for a catcher and a late inning pitcher why do you waste weeks and miss out on all that production? Could be the difference between having HFA or not in the playoffs. All because you want to get picky about the package you're giving up?

 

If some of these teams are truly going for it, it's never made sense to me why they wait so long. I like what the Brewers did with Sabathia, got him a month early and that made a huge difference.

 

I agree, but it probably has to do with getting as much info as possible. It would suck to give up your farm for a guy in early July, and then have some devastating injuries at the end of July giving yourself almost no chance at the playoffs. Or maybe another team decides to "sell" and a cheaper option comes on the market, etc.

 

The extra couple of weeks makes sense, but it's often good to get as much information as possible before making a major decision. Sometimes time is what can give you that information.

[bill hAll Star]

Why not just trade Braun/Lucroy and overpay for 2 older vets in 2018 if you're looking for the "experienced vets must be in house" method? I'll take the 5 prospects and have Jay Bruce and Alex Cobb (just throwing names of free agents out there) as the team ambassadors.

 

It just depends on what you can get for Braun. I, too, would like to trade Braun for good prospects, but I don't want to trade him for junk just to save money. I really don't want to trade him for junk and then go out and spend more money on someone like Bruce. That to me would be counter-productive, so in that case, it's better just holding onto Braun.

 

If Stearns is able to bring back a boatload of prospects for Lucroy, and a boatload of prospects for Braun, plus getting some top 100 guys for our relievers, then you set your sights a couple of years out and trade guys like Carter with two years of control. That would lead to a big down year the next year or two, followed by an extended period where we would continually have good pre-arby players coming from the farm to the MLB team. Once we get to this point, it would then make sense to sign some veteran FAs to fill in the holes where we don't have good pre-arby/arby guys.

 

If we can't get a good deal for Braun, it may make sense to hold onto guys like Carter, and some of Smith/Thornburg/Jeffress for another year and see how things play out, as we can always trade these guys next season.

 

So again, it all depends on what we could get for Braun. Someone posted a link the other day (maybe it was Splitter's "inside stuff"), which said other GMs know Braun is worth a lot, but they may not be willing to pay what he's worth. I think that "if" will be a big determinant as to how deep we cut. If we don't trade Braun, I think there's a greater likelihood that we hold onto Carter and one or two of our late inning relievers.

 

While I have my preferences, reality doesn't always match up with my preferences, so I'm fine with either of these "rebuilds," as long as the end goal remains to build a sustainably good MLB team by keeping a lot of young talent at all levels of the organization and maintaining flexibility. There is not one cut-and-dried path to reach this goal, so we'll see what Stearns can pull out of his hat over the next week.

 

I agree on waiting for the best deal for Braun. The post above a few above mine talked about maybe holding on to Braun and Lucroy for "veteran leadership." Yours was more discussing just keeping Braun, which is more sensible. The Pirates, Cubs, and probably Cards are way too good to think about winning in 2017 and maybe 2018. I think Mark is going to want to speed up the process starting in 2018, but I'm just presenting a much better solution if you're dying for veterans on the roster you can just buy them all in 2018.

[logan82]

I get the whole point of the rebuild approach, and I agree with it (though not to the total tear-down extremes that some feel are the only legit/true way to guarantee success). The only thing a rebuild or general turnover ensures is change. Success is no sure thing. But during a rebuild, as someone noted Stearns has already done, one of the keys is getting guys at different stages of their development. Eventually, in that mix you also need some certainty (as in already-proven guys) and a bit of credible veteran leadership (I'm sure that just made some heads explode), and I'd prefer the certainty that guys like Lucroy & Braun would bring vs. other guys you'd hope end up close to matching what you already know Lucroy & Braun can do in both on- and off-field respects.

I see no reason to hold onto guys like Lucroy or back end relievers. Lucroy will not be with us when we expect to be better and back end relievers look to be pretty valuable as trade chips. Relievers are inconsistent from year to year so they may at their peak valuable right now.

 

Of course success is the future is not guaranteed but being a bad team right now is. No sense keeping better players around chasing an extra win or two when we need to win 10 more games than we are likely to. Basically I don't think we should hold onto anything unless it will be of value 2 or more years from now.

[bill hAll Star]

I would imagine it is a silly idea on both sides, but just offer a ton of money to sign Luc back after next year if you want him around so badly. I am not a fan of signing him long term at all, but there you go...best of both worlds if you're really set on having Lucroy around.

[trwi7]

With it being such a sellers market out there, I disagree that we don't need to make a trade. Good players are going for massive returns and we need to capitalize on this.

 

This and it would be such a disappointment if we made no trades. At the very least I don't think we'll see a sellers market for relievers like this for a while, not to mention the volatility of relievers anyways.

 

And there's not a single reason for Lucroy to be here on August 2nd. His value is as high as it's ever going to be. If you're not getting the offers you want now with at minimum of 3 contenders bidding for him, you aren't going to get better offers when he has less control and you risk him getting a concussion again or breaking a toe or spraining an ankle.

 

Play hard ball all you want but take the best offer on August 1st.

[MrTPlush]

If Stearns holds onto Lucroy and all we get is a compensation pick David Stearns can be put in the same category as the guy in charge of Arizona. The amount of stupidity it would take to have that happen is hard to find.

[MKE81]

Yep. Never back down!! If he leaves in a year then we get a compensation pick.

 

Comp pick is the absolute worst and last thing you want happening. If he's not traded at the deadline, which I absolutely think he should be, then he'll be traded in the offseason where he can get to know his new pitching staff and work on an extension with the club (assuming they're a contender). You can still get the same return in summer as you're asking now - especially if a teams like the Indians/Rangers don't move for him now and their catching situation is horrendous down the final stretch and/or in the playoffs it'll force their hand in the offseason. Now, that also opens the door for those teams to go in another direction with another team as well.

 

Regarding our relief pitchers, given the market right now I would absolutely be trading all of them. Strike while the market is insanely hot for that type of talent. Plus we have guys like Magnifico coming soon to ease the blow. We won't be competing next year anyway so having guys like Barnes, Magnifico, Knebel is a fine start and can add a couple guys similar to Boyer, Torres like we did this year.

[dacrew101]

A comp pick for lucroy would be insanely awful. But it's obviously not happening

[igor67]

It's probably wiser to focus on a smaller number of deals and getting good returns rather then firesaling everyone when you don't have to. BP had a study at GM trades a few years ago and there definitely appeared to be diminishing returns on trades for the most active GMs.