Cubs' recent struggles

[Fear The Chorizo]

While seemingly playing the first 1/3rd of the regular season like a 125-win ballclub, the Cubs have really struggled over the past few weeks leading up to the AS break - this has opened the door to both the Cardinals and Pirates, teams that got off to bad starts and had injury issues who appear to be righting the ship for a stretch run.

 

The Cubs have had some injuries that have tested their depth, but they are still scoring enough runs. Their biggest problem has been poor starting pitching over the past month, and frankly it's not that surprising.

 

Arrieta was basically untouchable from June 2015 through May 2016, but his innings load during that same span has been drastically higher than any other point of his career - he's still a darn good pitcher, but it looks like his phenomenal run has fizzled out and is now struggling to make it through 6IP consistently. A telling indicator of arm fatigue is a loss of control/command - which is exactly what he's been struggling with over this bad stretch.

 

Hammel has been uneven of late, and this tends to be the time of year when his performance starts suffering. Lester has been brutal his past few starts, but may be able to right the ship with a little extra rest. While Lackey hasn't been poor, he hasn't been able to pick up the slack, either.

 

While much of the focus for Cubs' trade targets has been adding relievers (their pen has been uneven all season, and has struggled even more as the starters have forced them to pitch more innings lately), I think they need to explore adding another starter if they want to keep the Pirates & Cardinals at bay. I don't think they're in danger of completely nosediving, but there are now some real warts on a team that appeared indestructible just a few weeks ago.

[AKCheesehead]

I was really hoping they would set a record for regular season wins, get all their fans riled up, and then promptly lose the NLDS, but that's just me.

[BrewCrewBlueDevil]

The Cubs issue is they have no minor league pitching to give for major league pitching. With Contreras in MLB, either Candaleria (3B), Happ (2B/OF), Almora (OF) and McKinney (OF) straight up for Jeffers or Smith straight up could be a match.

[rwa12]

I think it's becoming quite clear that they need some Matt Garza in their lives.

[wildcat2237]

I think it's becoming quite clear that they need some Matt Garza in their lives.

 

You mean their de facto ace of days gone by?

 

http://www.chicagonow.com/world-series-dreaming/files/2013/06/garza-624x416.jpg

[jerichoholicninja]

While the media was going bonkers over their start I was watching the standings and at no point do I remember them ever being more than a win or two over the next best record. They are obviously a good team but some were acting like this was the best team ever.

[bill hAll Star]

Before the dropoff:

They played 7 series against good teams and won a bunch of close games. They played 14 series against poor teams and obviously pummeled them.

 

Dropoff:

Starting with the @Nats series, they've played 6 tough series with 2 Reds series (.500 in those) and a Braves makeup game sandwiched in. Luck dropped off a bit.

 

Basically, they played a bunch of trash to open the season. They probably play 60-70% of their remaining schedule against teams that are trying so I'd guess they play at a "pretty good" clip (maybe 5-10 games over .500 for the last 70 or so games).

[JohnBriggs12]

It's not surprising that 37 year old John Lackey seems to have finally come down to earth. That was a dubious signing that only a big market team can make. One has to wonder if Arietta is ailing? He's had command issues for some time now.

 

The one thing that could derail the Cub train would be a massive pitching collapse. It's a little early to tell if this is the start of it, but the bullpen's made up of castoffs for the most part and the starting depth are bullpen guys like Warren and Wood.

[JohnBriggs12]

Before the dropoff:

They played 7 series against good teams and won a bunch of close games. They played 14 series against poor teams and obviously pummeled them.

 

Dropoff:

Starting with the @Nats series, they've played 6 tough series with 2 Reds series (.500 in those) and a Braves makeup game sandwiched in. Luck dropped off a bit.

 

Basically, they played a bunch of trash to open the season. They probably play 60-70% of their remaining schedule against teams that are trying so I'd guess they play at a "pretty good" clip (maybe 5-10 games over .500 for the last 70 or so games).

 

No, they won 8 of their first 9 against Pittsburgh and swept a 4 game series from the Nats early on. They also won 4 of 6 the first two series with St. Louis. Their record was tremendous because the starting pitching was flawless. Lately, it's been anything but, and the bullpen was always a question mark.