Jeremy Jeffress trade talk

[Invader3K]

Peter Gammons with this tidbit on Twitter:

 

"The high cost of bullpen help:Miami gave Chris Paddack for Fernando Rodney. The price tag on Jeremy Jeffress was Paddack, 2 more prospects"

[pacopete4]

Understandable why they went the Rodney route then.

[narwhalattack]

Good to know it's possible to get a substantial return for relievers.

[JohnBriggs12]

Jeffress was one of the 3 on my projected trade list this month for simple reason that the market for relievers is just too hot to pass up and Jeffress would fit a lot of teams needs.

[BuckyBrewer61]

Love the approach Stearns is taking. He has legit high-value commodities that teams want and will no-doubt be bidding against each other for, and he is making it clear the price tag will be high to acquire them. As the deadline approaches you imagine teams will get increasingly desperate, and if no one will offer him good value then he can wait until the offseason (though I hope it doesn't come to that). Of course you hope he's not overpricing them to the point of getting nothing, but at this point...in Stearns I trust.

[JohnBriggs12]

Love the approach Stearns is taking. He has legit high-value commodities that teams want and will no-doubt be bidding against each other for, and he is making it clear the price tag will be high to acquire them. As the deadline approaches you imagine teams will get increasingly desperate, and if no one will offer him good value then he can wait until the offseason (though I hope it doesn't come to that). Of course you hope he's not overpricing them to the point of getting nothing, but at this point...in Stearns I trust.

 

I won't go that far as to pledge undying faith in this kid Stearns. It's a good sign if he realizes that the market dictates when is the best time to move a player and when the market is soft, it might be smarter just to hold on to a guy rather than settle.

[A Swing and A Drive]

We have to remember that this is Sterns first Trading Deadline as a MLB GM.

 

He's got a bevy of solid trade chips.

 

The team is in obvious rebuilding mode.

 

You've got to think he wants to make somewhat of a splash this month.

 

There are reports that Lucroy may not be traded.

 

I'd like to think Sterns is a smart enough baseball guy to realize how much value you lose if you wait until the offseason to move him.

 

He should also take advantage of a hot market for relief pitchers.

 

I think he will move about 3-4 more players from our MLB roster before the end of the month.

 

To me the most logical trade partners for the Brewers seem to be the Rangers and the Dodgers, but I'm sure there will be a surprise team to emerge.

 

Should be interesting.

[ewitkows]

But if your not getting basically 2 first round type guys plus some lotto guys back from Lucroy your selling yourself short. Don't deal just to make a deal

[trwi7]

But if your not getting basically 2 first round type guys plus some lotto guys back from Lucroy your selling yourself short. Don't deal just to make a deal

 

I mean, offers for 1.5 seasons of Lucroy > offers for 1 season of Lucroy > compensation pick for Lucroy. You can play hard ball all you want but eventually you're going to run out of time and back yourself up against a wall and end up taking less than what was offered. He needs to be gone on July 31st.

[Roderick]

I mean, offers for 1.5 seasons of Lucroy > offers for 1 season of Lucroy .....

 

Probably, but not necessarily. Now the only teams interested are teams that are in the playoff hunt and that have a hole at catcher and don't have other needs that trump that need and have the prospects that line up with what the Brewers want.

 

During the offseason, more teams could become involved as they have time to arrange the roster as they see fit and Lucroy could be that piece they want. Plus they would still have the QO in the back pocket. Who knows what team will pull a Padres or Diamondbacks and try to go all in.

[dacrew101]

I could see more teams being interested, for a lower price..

 

Agree, 1.5 > 1 yr of lucroy is valuable

[Austin Tatious]

I read somewhere in the media that the Mets are yet another team looking for relief pitching. It's uncanny how many teams could be in the market for relievers. This could be an interesting auction.

[jerichoholicninja]

I read somewhere in the media that the Mets are yet another team looking for relief pitching. It's uncanny how many teams could be in the market for relievers. This could be an interesting auction.

 

All teams can use relief pitching. Each team has 7 or 8 of them so everyone can upgrade.

[fondybrewfan]

Jeffress, Smith, and Torres should all be appealing to contenders. It seems pretty apparent that the Brewers have some of the best and most trading pieces in all of MLB; so it will be pretty disappointing if Stearns doesn't make a few deals.

[pacopete4]

Mariners have blown the most saves in the AL. Maybe they should be looking at our pen for help.

[BrewCrewBlueDevil]

Jeffers to the Mets starts with Wuilmer Bucerra (OF) or Brandon Nimmo (OF) and some young prospects. Talks with the Mariners start with Tyler O'Neil (OF) or DJ Peterson (1B/3B) and some young prospects. Jeffress is controlled and at a decent price (although, like a lot of Milwaukee closers he could implode at any time). I still think Seatlle could be LuCroy's landing spot in which Edwin Diaz, Nick Neidert, and Luis Gohara all are on the table along with O'Neil and Peterson.

[Bnowell4evr]

Is a Jeffress for Adalberto Mejia and Chris Shaw swap out of the question? That's 2 lower ranked top 100 prospects for 3 1/2 years of Jeffress. I also noticed the Giants highest ranked OF prospect is 17th in their system. The Brewers could easily add someone like Tyrone Taylor, Clint Coulter or Michael Reed to even the deal out or to bring another interesting piece in return.

 

Chris Shaw has been on a horrible slump of late but I still think very highly of his bat. If you could get Shaw in return from the Giants then you could focus on pitching and Francisco Mejia from the Indians.

[splitterpfj]

The Mets are interested in Milwaukee's relievers.

 

We know David Stearns loves those "+1" kids from the low minors.

 

If you're looking for an "under the radar" kid in the Mets' system, check this out:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=conlon000pj-

[Bnowell4evr]

The Mets are interested in Milwaukee's relievers.

 

We know David Stearns loves those "+1" kids from the low minors.

 

If you're looking for an "under the radar" kid in the Mets' system, check this out:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=conlon000pj-

 

Jeffress or Thornburg for Dominic Smith + is something I could see happening if Sandy Alderson didn't suffer from dementia. And sign me and Michael Peterson up for that guy. We could use another Brit in this system.

[DougJonesChangeUp]

The Mets are interested in Milwaukee's relievers.

 

We know David Stearns loves those "+1" kids from the low minors.

 

If you're looking for an "under the radar" kid in the Mets' system, check this out:

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=conlon000pj-

 

His fastball sits mid 80s. Hard to see him having success at the upper levels.

[MilwaukeeBeers]

Thomas Szapucki, from the Mets system, is a guy that I would target that also seems to fit Stearns blueprint.

[JosephC]

After looking through some of the numbers I just don't think the Brewer relievers have that much value. Jeffress current WAR for this season is 0.6, placing him 49th among relievers. Last year his WAR was 0.8 and his lifetime MLB WAR is 2.0. He doesn't have a long history of closing games. Will Smith current WAR for this season is 0.2, his season high WAR was last year and it was 1.4, career MLB WAR is 3.3. Thornburg's WAR this season is 0.9, best among the Brewer relievers and 21st in MLB. But last year his MLB WAR was -0.3 so there is no track record of consistency with him.

 

When you throw these names out there with the flood of relievers that will be available, I really don't see these resumes really distinguishing themselves. I'd argue that getting a top 100 prospect for any of them would be a major stretch. I think what the Brewers would likely get are a "top 10 organizational prospect" plus a real long-shot prospect or 2 solid "role player prospects" plus a real long-shot prospect.

 

I hope I'm wrong, I'd love to see the Brewers get a much better return for these players than I am anticipating. I still think their value might be maximized best if included as part of a bigger trade.

[QuevedosTongue]

After looking through some of the numbers I just don't think the Brewer relievers have that much value. Jeffress current WAR for this season is 0.6, placing him 49th among relievers. Last year his WAR was 0.8 and his lifetime MLB WAR is 2.0. He doesn't have a long history of closing games. Will Smith current WAR for this season is 0.2, his season high WAR was last year and it was 1.4, career MLB WAR is 3.3. Thornburg's WAR this season is 0.9, best among the Brewer relievers and 21st in MLB. But last year his MLB WAR was -0.3 so there is no track record of consistency with him.

 

When you throw these names out there with the flood of relievers that will be available, I really don't see these resumes really distinguishing themselves. I'd argue that getting a top 100 prospect for any of them would be a major stretch. I think what the Brewers would likely get are a "top 10 organizational prospect" plus a real long-shot prospect or 2 solid "role player prospects" plus a real long-shot prospect.

 

I hope I'm wrong, I'd love to see the Brewers get a much better return for these players than I am anticipating. I still think their value might be maximized best if included as part of a bigger trade.

 

I really hate to say this, because it makes things look worse for Brewers' RP values, but WAR is not a good stat to use for relief pitchers because of the batters faced component of it. Because RPs usage is low, a small increase in the amount of innings pitched can effect a RPs WAR to a greater degree. I like to use xFIP because it accounts for outliers in HR rate. Sadly, the Brewers look even worse then.

[splitterpfj]

The thought had been that Smith would be traded, and Jeffries would not, barring a big offer.

 

That may still be the case, but, regardless of what happens with Smith, I would expect a big offer for Jeffress at this point.

[And That]

While Smith/Jeffress/Thornburg may not be elite, they are all good to very good and controllable through 2019. There's a ton of value in the control factor.