Villar Cherry-Picking 3rd

[1992casey]

His antics hurt both on the field (30ish UNforced outs) and off (arby contract in a couple years will be higher).

 

Provided that the case is properly presented, if I'm an arbitrator looking at SB/CS, I'd look at the numbers, see that he's about 8[space][/space]SB above the "break even" point, and yawn.

 

Of course, it's tough to yawn while watching the games. You're either happy that he made it or unhappy that he didn't.

 

Just to clarify, you'd want to go beyond SB/CS and include pickoffs and successes/failures when trying to get another base out of a hit. I'm not in the position to provide that data, but an agent and the team rep would have it.

[rickh150]

His antics hurt both on the field (30ish UNforced outs) and off (arby contract in a couple years will be higher).

 

Provided that the case is properly presented, if I'm an arbitrator looking at SB/CS, I'd look at the numbers, see that he's about 8[space][/space]SB above the "break even" point, and yawn.

 

Of course, it's tough to yawn while watching the games. You're either happy that he made it or unhappy that he didn't.

 

Just to clarify, you'd want to go beyond SB/CS and include pickoffs and successes/failures when trying to get another base out of a hit. I'm not in the position to provide that data, but an agent and the team rep would have it.

 

Yawn? What does that mean? His big SB numbers will make his contract bigger.

[danzig6767]

His antics hurt both on the field (30ish UNforced outs) and off (arby contract in a couple years will be higher).

 

Provided that the case is properly presented, if I'm an arbitrator looking at SB/CS, I'd look at the numbers, see that he's about 8[space][/space]SB above the "break even" point, and yawn.

 

Of course, it's tough to yawn while watching the games. You're either happy that he made it or unhappy that he didn't.

 

Just to clarify, you'd want to go beyond SB/CS and include pickoffs and successes/failures when trying to get another base out of a hit. I'm not in the position to provide that data, but an agent and the team rep would have it.

Yea, if Villar is still with the team during arbitration years and he's still making an abnormal amount of dumb outs on the bases, without question the Brewers will have that data and present it, assuming the team and agent don't strike a deal first.

[trwi7]

Yawn? What does that mean? His big SB numbers will make his contract bigger.

 

No it doesn't mean that. It's not a one way argument. Villar can argue that his stolen bases add a ton of value and he should be rewarded for that. The Brewers can argue that his 74% stolen base percentage is below the break even point of 75% and that doesn't even include all the outs he makes on the bases that don't count as stolen base attempts.

 

Now it depends on who decides the case, if it even goes all the way to a hearing but an arbitrator isn't going to just say here, you win because of stolen base totals.

[1992casey]

The Brewers can argue that his 74% stolen base percentage is below the break even point of 75%…

 

I was being kind and using 68% as break even.

[rickh150]

Yep. Villar's Fangraphs page pegs his value this year at $16.6M. So while I get the frustrations with his mistakes, the fact that the only discussion on him is a 10 pager criticizing his baserunning makes me feel like we're losing sight of the bigger picture in that the guy has been a huge net positive for us as a young player which is exactly what we need.

 

Oh, the criticism is due him. The "big picture" is this.....beyond bad individual base running affecting the TEAM result.

 

If you read most of the posts, Villar gets plenty of praise. The trouble is too many want to excuse the inexcusable behavior with the positives. All are thrilled with his hitting stats, but that cannot negate the due criticism that should be on him for selfishly attempting to steal/take 3rd in obvious no go situations. Very bad baserunning, terrible decisions without change for 3 months, a manager letting it happen (until the benching) when a solution was so obvious (stop sign, which is probably still not given) .. and that is why the issue strikes a nerve.

 

That being said, he's having a better August on the bases.

[rickh150]

Yawn? What does that mean? His big SB numbers will make his contract bigger.

 

No it doesn't mean that. It's not a one way argument. Villar can argue that his stolen bases add a ton of value and he should be rewarded for that. The Brewers can argue that his 74% stolen base percentage is below the break even point of 75% and that doesn't even include all the outs he makes on the bases that don't count as stolen base attempts.

 

Now it depends on who decides the case, if it even goes all the way to a hearing but an arbitrator isn't going to just say here, you win because of stolen base totals.

 

Good points, definitely. The problem still is that the arbitrator is looking at comparisons (comps) to determine the best offer (team or player), and I don't know how many players have his amount of CS and unforced outs in a season (rare air), but the SB numbers could draw comparisons, probably with fairly high arby amounts. Like you said, it would be dependent on how the arbitrator values a SB and unforced out, but I believe a huge SB total, perhaps even winning a SB title, would help him financially in a league with few base threats, even with his current rate of mistakes.

[danzig6767]

 

Good points, definitely. The problem still is that the arbitrator is looking at comparisons (comps) to determine the best offer (team or player), and I don't know how many players have his amount of CS and unforced outs in a season (rare air), but the SB numbers could draw comparisons, probably with fairly high arby amounts. Like you said, it would be dependent on how the arbitrator values a SB and unforced out, but I believe a huge SB total, perhaps even winning a SB title, would help him financially in a league with few base threats, even with his current rate of mistakes.

Villar isn't arby eligible until 2018 so i don't understand why you are so worried about this right now.

 

The team will have another season to see how he does in all aspects of the game before having to submit dueling arbitration values with his agent. Even then it will only be his first arbitration year and thus the amount of money the two sides will be haggling on will have no impact at all on whatever budget Attanasio sets for the team. It will be close to pocket change separating the two sides in the grand scheme of baseball money today. If he's still a quality player after that, then the subsequent arbitration years start getting more and more costly.

 

By then though, Villar could have already been traded or locked up to an extension. Either way, what he has done this year will largely be meaningless from a financial aspect given his 500 K contract will just be renewed at a slight increase.

[rickh150]

How much better has Villar been on the bases! Unreal! Kudos to him! Also, kudos to CC for sitting the man down for a couple of games to get the message across that he was being stupid and hurting the team. My only question is..... did CC put up stop signs and did his approach change in regard to his dealing with Villar?

[TooLiveBrew]

How much better has Villar been on the bases! Unreal! Kudos to him! Also, kudos to CC for sitting the man down for a couple of games to get the message across that he was being stupid and hurting the team. My only question is..... did CC put up stop signs and did his approach change in regard to his dealing with Villar?

Kudos to you, too, for giving credit where it's due Too often these types of debates seem to result in entrenched, unchangeable opinions.

 

I'm glad Villar has cut down on the baserunning mistakes. He's such a fun player to watch (perfect leadoff guy!), and it seems like the Brewers haven't had a good switch-hitter in a really long time.

[rickh150]

How much better has Villar been on the bases! Unreal! Kudos to him! Also, kudos to CC for sitting the man down for a couple of games to get the message across that he was being stupid and hurting the team. My only question is..... did CC put up stop signs and did his approach change in regard to his dealing with Villar?

Kudos to you, too, for giving credit where it's due Too often these types of debates seem to result in entrenched, unchangeable opinions.

 

I'm glad Villar has cut down on the baserunning mistakes. He's such a fun player to watch (perfect leadoff guy!), and it seems like the Brewers haven't had a good switch-hitter in a really long time.

 

Trying to stay balanced is key. When I see a situation so terribly off balance (Villar daily/weekly doing easily correctable stuff on the bases), i have a tough time not commenting/venting. I care for the team and want to see good, smart ball, like most here.

 

As Good of a switch-hitting Brewer season? Do we have to go all the way back to Teddy Simmons?

[TooLiveBrew]

How much better has Villar been on the bases! Unreal! Kudos to him! Also, kudos to CC for sitting the man down for a couple of games to get the message across that he was being stupid and hurting the team. My only question is..... did CC put up stop signs and did his approach change in regard to his dealing with Villar?

Kudos to you, too, for giving credit where it's due Too often these types of debates seem to result in entrenched, unchangeable opinions.

 

I'm glad Villar has cut down on the baserunning mistakes. He's such a fun player to watch (perfect leadoff guy!), and it seems like the Brewers haven't had a good switch-hitter in a really long time.

 

Trying to stay balanced is key. When I see a situation so terribly off balance (Villar daily/weekly doing easily correctable stuff on the bases), i have a tough time not commenting/venting. I care for the team and want to see good, smart ball, like most here.

 

As Good of a switch-hitting Brewer season? Do we have to go all the way back to Teddy Simmons?

I mean... we don't exactly have a plethora of choices! Kind of crazy to think about.

 

I've loved watching Villar all season, basepath gaffes & all. I love him as a hitter. He's exactly the type of player the club has been lacking for years. Imagine him instead of Yuni B on that 2011 team --

[bjkrautk]

I mean... we don't exactly have a plethora of choices! Kind of crazy to think about.

 

Brewers OPS 800+ Switch Hitters

2016 Jonathan Villar - .296 BA .376 OBP .460 Slg. .835 OPS (520 AB)

2009 Felipe Lopez - .320 BA .407 OBP .448 Slg. .855 OPS (259 AB)

2001 Devon White - .277 BA .343 OBP .459 Slg. .802 OPS (390 AB)

1996 Jose Valentin - .259 BA .336 OBP .475 Slg .811 OPS (552 AB)

 

---

1983 Ted Simmons - .308 BA .351 OBP .448 Slg. .799 OPS (600 AB)

 

Felipe Lopez's numbers are for his time in Milwaukee; he was picked up in a trade because he wasn't having that kind of season for Arizona (.810 OPS for the full season).

 

(Source: Baseball Reference)

[TooLiveBrew]

Man, I totally forgot about Lopez, & that Devon White was a switch-hitter. Thanks BJ.

[MenchHead]

Tomo Ohka gets my vote for best switch-hitter!

[adambr2]

I think there was a Brewer switch hitting pitcher years back that was bad enough from one side that the Brewers basically told him, 'Yeah, you're not a switch hitter anymore.' Carlos Villanueva maybe?

[Baldkin]

Tomo Ohka gets my vote for best switch-hitter!

 

That might be my all time favorite completely throw away game in Brewers history.

 

Uke's call was amazing.

[adambr2]

Counsell mentioned in his post season press conference that his players were asked to push the envelope on the base paths this year, that this was by design, to get a feel for their capabilities. Villar probably took that further than Counsell intended but I thought it was worth mentioning and probably helps explain why Villar generally didn't face any repercussions for his mistakes.

 

With that said, I don't remember much of anything egregious by Villar on the bases the last couple months.

[1992casey]

I recall a similar comment by Counsell when Jonathan was getting thrown out in mass quantities. His words were "by design." I suppose the idea was to push him first and worry about the outs later.

 

Jonathan seems to be a guy who's well aware of his numbers. If that's the case, it should be impressed upon him — in both English and Spanish — that stolen base percentage is the number to gun for. If he does that, the stolen base total will take care of itself.

[adambr2]

All that said, mistakes aside, a nice shiny 3.1 WAR for Villar this year. I think we'd take that from just about anyone, and certainly none of us expected him to be this good this quickly.

 

It's a great start and the fact that he still has things he needs to improve on shows he can get even better.

[nate82]

Counsell mentioned in his post season press conference that his players were asked to push the envelope on the base paths this year, that this was by design, to get a feel for their capabilities. Villar probably took that further than Counsell intended but I thought it was worth mentioning and probably helps explain why Villar generally didn't face any repercussions for his mistakes.

 

With that said, I don't remember much of anything egregious by Villar on the bases the last couple months.

 

That makes sense better to be learning how far you can push the envelope in a rebuilding year. It is not like the Brewers were going to lose anything with Villar and the number of times he was caught stealing. I also wouldn't be surprised if this is the same next year with the running being tuned down a little bit. Next year is going to be another rebuilding year so no big loss if he gets thrown out making some bad base path errors.

[rickh150]

Counsell mentioned in his post season press conference that his players were asked to push the envelope on the base paths this year, that this was by design, to get a feel for their capabilities. Villar probably took that further than Counsell intended but I thought it was worth mentioning and probably helps explain why Villar generally didn't face any repercussions for his mistakes.

 

With that said, I don't remember much of anything egregious by Villar on the bases the last couple months.

 

That makes sense better to be learning how far you can push the envelope in a rebuilding year. It is not like the Brewers were going to lose anything with Villar and the number of times he was caught stealing. I also wouldn't be surprised if this is the same next year with the running being tuned down a little bit. Next year is going to be another rebuilding year so no big loss if he gets thrown out making some bad base path errors.

 

 

Ok. Season's over. Villar improved..... Big time on the bases. Yes. Let's not try to keep excusing the earlier season play. He was sat. He was doing stupid stuff on the bases. He learned from it. Case closed. Let's not say oh, this was the plan. If it was, why was he sat? Being aggressive on the bases and being stupid on the bases are two different things.

[adambr2]

Counsell mentioned in his post season press conference that his players were asked to push the envelope on the base paths this year, that this was by design, to get a feel for their capabilities. Villar probably took that further than Counsell intended but I thought it was worth mentioning and probably helps explain why Villar generally didn't face any repercussions for his mistakes.

 

With that said, I don't remember much of anything egregious by Villar on the bases the last couple months.

 

That makes sense better to be learning how far you can push the envelope in a rebuilding year. It is not like the Brewers were going to lose anything with Villar and the number of times he was caught stealing. I also wouldn't be surprised if this is the same next year with the running being tuned down a little bit. Next year is going to be another rebuilding year so no big loss if he gets thrown out making some bad base path errors.

 

 

Ok. Season's over. Villar improved..... Big time on the bases. Yes. Let's not try to keep excusing the earlier season play. He was sat. He was doing stupid stuff on the bases. He learned from it. Case closed. Let's not say oh, this was the plan.

 

It’s matchups and timing and (pitch) counts and game situations,” Counsell said. “You have to experience that. That’s how you figure it out. What Jonathan went through at points during the season, I feel like that was necessary. I feel like we had to go through that.”