Villar Cherry-Picking 3rd

[rickh150]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&lg=MLB&year=2016

 

These are stats for a PA decided on a 3-0 count, 1927 walks in 2123 PA is 90.8% of the time. If you don't count the 517 intentional walks the numbers dropped to a still huge 87.8% of the time. If you want to know after a 3-0 count then 30.5% are hits and only 64% are walks.

 

 

Thank you.... Great source!

Mind boggling numbers to support taking not just one pitch in this situation, but two. ( obp going down because guys are swinging 3-1).

Although in this situation, no question the pitcher is very motivated to throw a strike.

[rickh150]

By count 3-0 has the highest batting average so no.

 

So you wouldn't want a .360 hitter????????

 

This season on 3-0 counts batters are getting hits 41.7% of the time and walking 90.8% of the time. Taking a 3-0 pitch more than doubles your chances of getting on base. There's no reason to swing the bat ever.

 

Interested in your source.....

 

Came back to the computer after thinking about your stats. I can't see the 90% being true just on taking a 3-0 pitch. That means that pitchers are throwing strikes 10% of the time on 3-0 counts when many are just throwing "get me over" fastballs. That can't be. Perhaps batters are walking 90% of the time if they don 't swing AFTER getting a 3-0 count; even that seems high (although intentional walk #'s help).

 

My guess is that the on base (walk) % for taking ON a 3-0 count is much closer to 40%, meaning the pitcher is throwing strikes 60% of the time. The on base % for those taking on 3-0 and then (if not walked already) hitting/walking/get out would be around 50 to 60%, just guessing.

 

In any event, the obp is the number to look at in that 5 run scenerio, and the obp increases when taking a pitch on 3-0.

 

Slept on it and realized the 90% is not talking about ball four occurring 90% of time, or on ALL at bats, with 3-0 count....... just at bats that have a result on the fourth pitch(out, BB, HBP, Sacrifice, reach on error). The AFTER 3-0 has splits of .307 BA and .750 OBP which takes into account a strike on pitch four (and/or pitch five).

[jerichoholicninja]

Slept on it and realized the 90% is not talking about ball four occurring 90% of time, or on ALL at bats, with 3-0 count....... just at bats that have a result on the fourth pitch(out, BB, HBP, Sacrifice, reach on error). The AFTER 3-0 has splits of .307 BA and .750 OBP which takes into account a strike on pitch four (and/or pitch five).

 

I'm sure out there somewhere is what percentage of the time a 3-0 pitch is a ball, called strike, or swinging strike and I would be very interested in those numbers. However, it's pretty obvious swinging at a 3-0 is very much playing against the numbers.

 

And that makes sense to me as a pitcher. Sometimes a pitcher just loses it for a batter for whatever reason. I threw a game earlier this summer in which I only got to one 3 ball count and it was a 4 pitch walk. I knew when it got to 2-0 I was going to walk him because I just couldn't find it. And I've seen this lots of times in my 10+ years of coaching and playing baseball at the high school, college, and amateur level. It just happens.

[trwi7]

Picked off of 1st with runners on the corners and 2 outs down 4-0.

[Austin Tatious]

I like Johnny...a lot. Love how he's put together, and his athleticism. He plays hard. Outstanding profile of the type of player Stearns seems to covet.

 

But, yeah, it's amazing what a slow learner he is. Before he got picked off, I literally thought he was a couple of steps too far. The edge where the corner of the grass is, is too far IMO in that situation. The circumstances made literally no sense based on score, who was coming up, there was a runner on third too, etc.

 

I will say, I feel like he's a competitive kid. He's aggressive. He obviously gets upset too at his mistakes. He's not nonchalant.

 

But I honestly can't figure out how you can make that mistake, time and again. Smart aggressiveness seems to be possible. I don't think they are mutually exclusive. But, I love the player and want more like him.

[MrTPlush]

The getting picked off thing is a little more complicated. The lead you can take is different for every pitcher you face. So it's not like we can just say, " Hey Villar don't go past this point." That could just lead to too small of leads and more times getting caught stealing. It really is a judgement thing on Villar's part. MAYBE you could get a first base coach to help him, but that isn't the easiest thing to do mid-game.

 

I don't know how many times he has been picked off(too many), but those giant leads may be what is getting him so many SBs. So if you limit his leads it may also have a negative effect.

[rickh150]

The getting picked off thing is a little more complicated. The lead you can take is different for every pitcher you face. So it's not like we can just say, " Hey Villar don't go past this point." That could just lead to too small of leads and more times getting caught stealing. It really is a judgement thing on Villar's part. MAYBE you could get a first base coach to help him, but that isn't the easiest thing to do mid-game.

 

I don't know how many times he has been picked off(too many), but those giant leads may be what is getting him so many SBs. So if you limit his leads it may also have a negative effect.

 

 

Here, he is trying to steal, no doubt. If he gets into scoring position, a hit by a hot hitting Gennett gets two runs instead of one. The score is 4-2 then instead of 4-1, and it's more of a ball game again. This is an aggressive type of mistake (risk/reward) that I can live with, although it is frustrating.

[MrTPlush]

Gotta revive this thread. Today in the first inning he was out by a mile for the third out at 3rd base. Wow

[paul253]

I don't get it. How can you make the same mistake over and over and over and over again? I think the only viable explanation is that he cares more about his personal statistics then about doing what's best for the team. I mean seriously, trying to steal third with two out down by 5 and your best hitter at the plate? How do you explain that? Counsel should bench him immediately.

[adambr2]

I've been a Villar supporter throughout this thread but I've got to concede he's going too far. I am not going to say never take 3rd with 2 outs, if you catch the other team napping and know you're going to make it, but that's not what's going on here. These seem to be selfish attempts.

[remfire]

Counsel should bench him immediately.

 

Ask and you shall receive. He's been pulled.

[rickh150]

Counsel should bench him immediately.

 

Ask and you shall receive. He's been pulled.

 

A couple months late...... Interested in the post game talk with CC.

[JohnBriggs12]

Have to wonder if he took off on his own on the play Gennett got doubled off too. I doubt they put on a double steal down 5-0 with 2 on and Braun up.

 

Selfish players are losing players. I'd shop him.

[MrTPlush]

Have to wonder if he took off on his own on the play Gennett got doubled off too. I doubt they put on a double steal down 5-0 with 2 on and Braun up.

 

Selfish players are losing players. I'd shop him.

 

[sarcasm]Yah he went on his own. They actually meant to just steal Gennett and have Villar stay at second.[/sarcasm]

[brewmann04]

He was pulled tonight think CC had enough.

[dacbrewers]

He was pulled tonight think CC had enough.

 

That was the wrong time to try and take 3rd. Does he get a performance bonus for leading league in steals?

[1992casey]

You can't give performance bonuses for things like steals. Situations like Villar's would demonstrate exactly why bonuses for that kind of stat are prohibited.

 

As far as Jonathan himself, I don't think he's selfish or anything like that. I think it's simply a situation where his instincts kick in faster than his brain.

[rickh150]

He's now made 10 outs on the bases, not including the 9 caught stealing and 2 times he's been picked off.

 

Outs on the bases:

Runner is put out while making a baserunning play.

Example plays: out advancing on a fly ball, out attempting to reach another base on a hit,

doubled off on a line drive, or out attempting to advance on a wild pitch or passed ball.

Does not include pickoffs, caught stealing, or force plays.

 

Breaking them down:

3 at first, 5 at 3rd (!!) and 2 at home.

 

By comparison, Lucroy, Braun and Carter have made a total of 8 outs on the bases.

 

 

 

Recapping while waiting for the manager post game interview of the year....I think we're at 24 or 25 unforced mistakes on the bases for Villar. Roughly half were t-ball mistakes.

[Devinep]

Villar was pulled because of his awful base running. Thank God Counsell finally did this

[rickh150]

Villar said, after the game, that you cannot get thrown out when up 5-0..... He didn't mention anything about getting chucked at 3rd base with two outs. So this unbelievably might still be an issue! If he gets chucked at 2nd, there is no issue. He's trying to get into scoring position, even if down by 5. Is he understanding? Still, still, still..... Very questionable.

 

Almost laughable if it wasn't so very sad.

[1992casey]

This is the Villar quote that I'm finding:

 

That situation right there, that's my bad. It's 5-0, and I make an out. I like to be aggressive on the bases, but in that situation, that's different — 5-0, first inning. I understand.

 

As far as addressing the question in more detail, we don't know specifically what was asked or if there were followup questions. All we really know is that those three sentences were quoted. He may or may not have said more.

[rickh150]

Went to game tonight.... First game of the new, improved Villar? Na....

First at bat....

He continues to hit... He hits a double down the line in left. He didn't know where the ball went and stood there without running for 2 or 3 seconds. Thankfully, it didn't cost us a base.

Now, no one out, he attempts to STEAL 3RD WITH NO OUTS, but Elmore flies out to RF, preventing a tag to 3rd.

After Elmore and Lucroy get out, guess o guess what happens? He takes off with 2 OUTS on a 3-2 pitch that Carter hits out of the par, 2 run HR. The sad thing is, however, ( besides him inexcusably stealing 3rd with two outs AGAIN), he did not take off stealing the the base like it was a straight steal..... He took off like it was a 3-2 pitch with men on first AND second!!!! Unreal!

Later in the game he was a sitting duck in a probable contact play with 1 out and he being the runner on 3rd. Tough to blame him here, especially if he had to go on contact.

 

Overall, he had a big hit to start the game and a really nice play at 2nd base, digging out a bad throw on a bunt attempt. Yet, he was a loose cannon on the bases. Nothing changed. The second time Villar got on base, I watched Sedar and saw him putting his arms and fists straight up for a long time when Villar was at second with no outs...... Stressing no outs, perhaps? Or was this a stop sign?

 

Interesting and laughably sad.... The first chance he gets after sitting out two games for poor baserunning, he attempts to steal 3rd with no outs and two outs.

 

Although Villar gets ripped for all this, the blame falls all on Counsell. Put up the stop sign, dude. Or.... Did CC pull Villar because he ignored stop signs? Did he ignore some tonight? Some questions still need to be asked by our media.

[MrTPlush]

He was a sitting duck at 3rd or home. He had nowhere to go last night.

[MilwaukeesBest]

Went to game tonight.... First game of the new, improved Villar? Na....

First at bat....

He continues to hit... He hits a double down the line in left. He didn't know where the ball went and stood there without running for 2 or 3 seconds. Thankfully, it didn't cost us a base.

Now, no one out, he attempts to STEAL 3RD WITH NO OUTS, but Elmore flies out to RF, preventing a tag to 3rd.

After Elmore and Lucroy get out, guess o guess what happens? He takes off with 2 OUTS on a 3-2 pitch that Carter hits out of the par, 2 run HR. The sad thing is, however, ( besides him inexcusably stealing 3rd with two outs AGAIN), he did not take off stealing the the base like it was a straight steal..... He took off like it was a 3-2 pitch with men on first AND second!!!! Unreal!

Later in the game he was a sitting duck in a probable contact play with 1 out and he being the runner on 3rd. Tough to blame him here, especially if he had to go on contact.

 

Overall, he had a big hit to start the game and a really nice play at 2nd base, digging out a bad throw on a bunt attempt. Yet, he was a loose cannon on the bases. Nothing changed. The second time Villar got on base, I watched Sedar and saw him putting his arms and fists straight up for a long time when Villar was at second with no outs...... Stressing no outs, perhaps? Or was this a stop sign?

 

Interesting and laughably sad.... The first chance he gets after sitting out two games for poor baserunning, he attempts to steal 3rd with no outs and two outs.

 

Although Villar gets ripped for all this, the blame falls all on Counsell. Put up the stop sign, dude. Or.... Did CC pull Villar because he ignored stop signs? Did he ignore some tonight? Some questions still need to be asked by our media.

 

I have a solution. Be a fan of the Orioles. They have the least amount of steals at 13 and they have a different manager.

[rickh150]

Went to game tonight.... First game of the new, improved Villar? Na....

First at bat....

He continues to hit... He hits a double down the line in left. He didn't know where the ball went and stood there without running for 2 or 3 seconds. Thankfully, it didn't cost us a base.

Now, no one out, he attempts to STEAL 3RD WITH NO OUTS, but Elmore flies out to RF, preventing a tag to 3rd.

After Elmore and Lucroy get out, guess o guess what happens? He takes off with 2 OUTS on a 3-2 pitch that Carter hits out of the par, 2 run HR. The sad thing is, however, ( besides him inexcusably stealing 3rd with two outs AGAIN), he did not take off stealing the the base like it was a straight steal..... He took off like it was a 3-2 pitch with men on first AND second!!!! Unreal!

Later in the game he was a sitting duck in a probable contact play with 1 out and he being the runner on 3rd. Tough to blame him here, especially if he had to go on contact.

 

Overall, he had a big hit to start the game and a really nice play at 2nd base, digging out a bad throw on a bunt attempt. Yet, he was a loose cannon on the bases. Nothing changed. The second time Villar got on base, I watched Sedar and saw him putting his arms and fists straight up for a long time when Villar was at second with no outs...... Stressing no outs, perhaps? Or was this a stop sign?

 

Interesting and laughably sad.... The first chance he gets after sitting out two games for poor baserunning, he attempts to steal 3rd with no outs and two outs.

 

Although Villar gets ripped for all this, the blame falls all on Counsell. Put up the stop sign, dude. Or.... Did CC pull Villar because he ignored stop signs? Did he ignore some tonight? Some questions still need to be asked by our media.

 

I have a solution. Be a fan of the Orioles. They have the least amount of steals at 13 and they have a different manager.

 

Villar has run into 26 or 27 UNFORCED outs on the bases by himself this year...... AND it is miraculously STILL an issue the VERY NEXT time he gets aboard after sitting 2 games for his baserunning (Counsell mentioned something about him not following "rules" as well... Still not clear). How can you dismiss Counsell? Villar? CC is letting this guy be an absolute selfish tool on the bases! PUT UP A STOP SIGN and grow a spine!!!!!!! Villar has NO clue what is going on! Zero baseball sense. Just help him get better by telling him when a steal is not high reward/ low risk..... Yes, Sedar should literally walk to him every time he reaches and have a discussion with him, long enough until an umpire comes over and has to break it up. And if he simply won't listen and wants that SB or SB record regardless of team whatever, sit him, trade him, or take him out for dinner for a heart to heart..... Get to the bottom of this, pleaaaaaaase Brewer organization!

 

Baltimore, huh? I'm the issue? See no evil, hear no evil.....