Villar Cherry-Picking 3rd

[jerichoholicninja]

I don't care if it's the first second or third out at 3B. I can understand doing it if he gets caught once in a while trying to extend a double, just don't get caught stealing at 3B. It's premeditated and easily avoidable.

 

Ya, I just can't understand how some posters can be ok with the caught stealings just because he does other things well. It's easily fixable and even when he's successful it doesn't little to actually help the team.

[danzig6767]

Again, I don't think people are saying that Villars a bad player or that he should be traded, so why keep bringing up irrelevant things to base running like OBP?

 

The reason people don't like al the outs he makes is that they should be easily avoidable, it's not like asking David Ortiz to be faster. Villar just needs to be a little smarter. Easy fix = "why the crapnis he still making such dumb decisions?"

But his OBP isn't irrelevant. The jerichoholicninja poster said costing the team outs on the bases is worth getting bent out of shape over. I disagree it's that big of a deal given how often he gets on base compared to most of the other players on the roster. A player actually has to be on base, not in the dugout before any chance of making on out on the bases can happen.

 

Obviously i'd prefer to see Villar become a smarter baserunner, but that was also a problem of his in Houston. I suspect in the minors also. Most players in baseball struggle at certain aspects of the game. Maybe the coaching staff can make him into that smarter baserunner, but changing ingrained deficiencies isn't always easy. If it was, there wouldn't be say large amounts of hitters who just refuse to be more patient at the plate, even after multiple hitting coaches and managers tell them to, along with it hurting their careers much more than dumb baserunning would. Yet they keep hacking away at bad pitches and thus getting themselves out.

[brewerfan82]

Obviously i'd prefer to see Villar become a smarter baserunner, but that was also a problem of his in Houston. I suspect in the minors also. Most players in baseball struggle at certain aspects of the game. Maybe the coaching staff can make him into that smarter baserunner, but changing ingrained deficiencies isn't always easy. If it was, there wouldn't be say large amounts of hitters who just refuse to be more patient at the plate, even after multiple hitting coaches and managers tell them to, along with it hurting their careers much more than dumb baserunning would. Yet they keep hacking away at bad pitches and thus getting themselves out.

 

Except a hitter not being able to make split second decisions well on pitches being thrown at different spots, speeds, curves, etc., isn't quite the same as a player having time before a play even begins to know that he doesn't need to get to 3rd base. It would be more like a hitter with a 3-0 count, with the bases loaded, and 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th of a tied game swinging at the next pitch. You just don't do it, unless you're really REALLY sure you're going to get a hit.

[rickh150]

Obviously i'd prefer to see Villar become a smarter baserunner, but that was also a problem of his in Houston. I suspect in the minors also. Most players in baseball struggle at certain aspects of the game. Maybe the coaching staff can make him into that smarter baserunner, but changing ingrained deficiencies isn't always easy. If it was, there wouldn't be say large amounts of hitters who just refuse to be more patient at the plate, even after multiple hitting coaches and managers tell them to, along with it hurting their careers much more than dumb baserunning would. Yet they keep hacking away at bad pitches and thus getting themselves out.

 

Except a hitter not being able to make split second decisions well on pitches being thrown at different spots, speeds, curves, etc., isn't quite the same as a player having time before a play even begins to know that he doesn't need to get to 3rd base. It would be more like a hitter with a 3-0 count, with the bases loaded, and 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th of a tied game swinging at the next pitch. You just don't do it, unless you're really REALLY sure you're going to get a hit.

 

Besides Villar getting chucked at 3rd, another low moment, decision wise this year....

 

The day is July 3. The Brewers are down 9-4 in the ninth against Cards. Braun, Luc single. Carter is hit by pitch. On a 3-0 count, down 5 mind you,bases loaded, Hill is swinging 3-0 and fouls it back....... Down 5. A double play would kill the rally. A homer or walk are about the same thing here. Anyways, Hill does walk eventually. Kirk doubles and is stranded to lose 9-8.

Although easy to gloss over because Hill walked, I couldn't believe that he swung. Like usual, I didn't hear from any a Brewer media if CC had take sign up or if Hill missed sign or if CC expected him not to swin, etc.

[stoutdude04]

Obviously i'd prefer to see Villar become a smarter baserunner, but that was also a problem of his in Houston. I suspect in the minors also. Most players in baseball struggle at certain aspects of the game. Maybe the coaching staff can make him into that smarter baserunner, but changing ingrained deficiencies isn't always easy. If it was, there wouldn't be say large amounts of hitters who just refuse to be more patient at the plate, even after multiple hitting coaches and managers tell them to, along with it hurting their careers much more than dumb baserunning would. Yet they keep hacking away at bad pitches and thus getting themselves out.

 

Except a hitter not being able to make split second decisions well on pitches being thrown at different spots, speeds, curves, etc., isn't quite the same as a player having time before a play even begins to know that he doesn't need to get to 3rd base. It would be more like a hitter with a 3-0 count, with the bases loaded, and 2 outs in the bottom of the 9th of a tied game swinging at the next pitch. You just don't do it, unless you're really REALLY sure you're going to get a hit.

 

Besides Villar getting chucked at 3rd, another low moment, decision wise this year....

 

The day is July 3. The Brewers are down 9-4 in the ninth against Cards. Braun, Luc single. Carter is hit by pitch. On a 3-0 count, down 5 mind you,bases loaded, Hill is swinging 3-0 and fouls it back....... Down 5. A double play would kill the rally. A homer or walk are about the same thing here. Anyways, Hill does walk eventually. Kirk doubles and is stranded to lose 9-8.

Although easy to gloss over because Hill walked, I couldn't believe that he swung. Like usual, I didn't hear from any a Brewer media if CC had take sign up or if Hill missed sign or if CC expected him not to swin, etc.

 

Are you upset with Villar or with the coaching staff? The general rule of thumb is to take 3-0, but I have heard vets get a green light if it's the exact pitch they are looking for.

[rickh150]

Are you upset with Villar or with the coaching staff? The general rule of thumb is to take 3-0, but I have heard vets get a green light if it's the exact pitch they are looking for.

 

Hill was swinging, by the way..... Uh, I don't know.... Both Hill and coaches, I guess. Yet, ultimately, these strategy decisions fall on Counsell. I'm finding that manager and coaches do not have a good hold of player strategy. Maybe that is similar on other teams too, not sure. I say this partly because of my minute conversation with Ed Sedar last season...

 

http://forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?f=63&t=33233&p=957632&hilit=Sedar#p957632

[nate82]

 

The day is July 3. The Brewers are down 9-4 in the ninth against Cards. Braun, Luc single. Carter is hit by pitch. On a 3-0 count, down 5 mind you,bases loaded, Hill is swinging 3-0 and fouls it back....... Down 5. A double play would kill the rally. A homer or walk are about the same thing here. Anyways, Hill does walk eventually. Kirk doubles and is stranded to lose 9-8.

Although easy to gloss over because Hill walked, I couldn't believe that he swung. Like usual, I didn't hear from any a Brewer media if CC had take sign up or if Hill missed sign or if CC expected him not to swin, etc.

 

Not swinging at a 3-0 count when you get a pitch to hit is the definition of stupid.

 

3-0 count splits:

 

2015

378 .948 .750 1.698

 

2014

353 .942 .697 1.639

 

2013

353 .948 .716 1.663

 

 

Yes you read that right the past three years on a 3-0 count batters have a 1.600+ OPS. If you are not swinging at a pitch you can drive you are an idiot and need to be benched immediately as you are not putting the team first instead you are putting the dumb unwritten rules of baseball ahead of the team. There is no logical reason to be sitting there watching a pitch on a 3-0 count NONE.

[jerichoholicninja]

 

The day is July 3. The Brewers are down 9-4 in the ninth against Cards. Braun, Luc single. Carter is hit by pitch. On a 3-0 count, down 5 mind you,bases loaded, Hill is swinging 3-0 and fouls it back....... Down 5. A double play would kill the rally. A homer or walk are about the same thing here. Anyways, Hill does walk eventually. Kirk doubles and is stranded to lose 9-8.

Although easy to gloss over because Hill walked, I couldn't believe that he swung. Like usual, I didn't hear from any a Brewer media if CC had take sign up or if Hill missed sign or if CC expected him not to swin, etc.

 

Not swinging at a 3-0 count when you get a pitch to hit is the definition of stupid.

 

3-0 count splits:

 

2015

378 .948 .750 1.698

 

2014

353 .942 .697 1.639

 

2013

353 .948 .716 1.663

 

 

Yes you read that right the past three years on a 3-0 count batters have a 1.600+ OPS. If you are not swinging at a pitch you can drive you are an idiot and need to be benched immediately as you are not putting the team first instead you are putting the dumb unwritten rules of baseball ahead of the team. There is no logical reason to be sitting there watching a pitch on a 3-0 count NONE.

 

Your own stats prove the point that you're trying to refute. Swinging on a 3-0 pitch is only successful roughly 36% of the time. Meaning if a batter swings at every 3-0 pitch they get they are still going to get out most of the time. And it would be even worse if you swing at every one because sometimes pitchers just can't throw strikes, so now you're swinging at crappy pitches when you could have just walked.

[nate82]

 

The day is July 3. The Brewers are down 9-4 in the ninth against Cards. Braun, Luc single. Carter is hit by pitch. On a 3-0 count, down 5 mind you,bases loaded, Hill is swinging 3-0 and fouls it back....... Down 5. A double play would kill the rally. A homer or walk are about the same thing here. Anyways, Hill does walk eventually. Kirk doubles and is stranded to lose 9-8.

Although easy to gloss over because Hill walked, I couldn't believe that he swung. Like usual, I didn't hear from any a Brewer media if CC had take sign up or if Hill missed sign or if CC expected him not to swin, etc.

 

Not swinging at a 3-0 count when you get a pitch to hit is the definition of stupid.

 

3-0 count splits:

 

2015

378 .948 .750 1.698

 

2014

353 .942 .697 1.639

 

2013

353 .948 .716 1.663

 

 

Yes you read that right the past three years on a 3-0 count batters have a 1.600+ OPS. If you are not swinging at a pitch you can drive you are an idiot and need to be benched immediately as you are not putting the team first instead you are putting the dumb unwritten rules of baseball ahead of the team. There is no logical reason to be sitting there watching a pitch on a 3-0 count NONE.

 

Your own stats prove the point that you're trying to refute. Swinging on a 3-0 pitch is only successful roughly 36% of the time. Meaning if a batter swings at every 3-0 pitch they get they are still going to get out most of the time. And it would be even worse if you swing at every one because sometimes pitchers just can't throw strikes, so now you're swinging at crappy pitches when you could have just walked.

 

By count 3-0 has the highest batting average so no.

 

So you wouldn't want a .360 hitter????????

[MilwaukeesBest]

Are you upset with Villar or with the coaching staff? The general rule of thumb is to take 3-0, but I have heard vets get a green light if it's the exact pitch they are looking for.

 

Hill was swinging, by the way..... Uh, I don't know.... Both Hill and coaches, I guess. Yet, ultimately, these strategy decisions fall on Counsell. I'm finding that manager and coaches do not have a good hold of player strategy. Maybe that is similar on other teams too, not sure. I say this partly because of my minute conversation with Ed Sedar last season...

 

http://forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?f=63&t=33233&p=957632&hilit=Sedar#p957632

 

I personally think you're a chronic nitpicker of a rebuilding team. Brewers could win 15-0 each game for the next week and you'd be complaining because Counsell brought in Torres instead of Thornburg in game 4. I think you should stick to your softball dynasty.

[jerichoholicninja]

By count 3-0 has the highest batting average so no.

 

So you wouldn't want a .360 hitter????????

 

This season on 3-0 counts batters are getting hits 41.7% of the time and walking 90.8% of the time. Taking a 3-0 pitch more than doubles your chances of getting on base. There's no reason to swing the bat ever.

[FVBrewerFan]

By count 3-0 has the highest batting average so no.

 

So you wouldn't want a .360 hitter????????

 

This season on 3-0 counts batters are getting hits 41.7% of the time and walking 90.8% of the time. Taking a 3-0 pitch more than doubles your chances of getting on base. There's no reason to swing the bat ever.

 

Somewhere across America a small part of Chucky Carr just died.

[nate82]

By count 3-0 has the highest batting average so no.

 

So you wouldn't want a .360 hitter????????

 

This season on 3-0 counts batters are getting hits 41.7% of the time and walking 90.8% of the time. Taking a 3-0 pitch more than doubles your chances of getting on base. There's no reason to swing the bat ever.

 

So wait you would rather have a walk than an extra base hit? Why take the walk when the extra base hit puts the player in a better position to score?

 

Quick edit even after missing the strike at 3-0 this year on 3-1 counts batters are hitting this line:

.375 .703 .675 1.378

 

Again another advantageous position for the batter. Every batter should be swinging at pitches that are in the strike zone and should not be looking at them when they are up in the count. I don't care if it is bases loaded bottom of the 9th and the count is 3-0. I want the batter swinging at that pitch if it is a strike the batter can handle. Anyone who puts up a take sign on that is just lunacy.

[jerichoholicninja]

By count 3-0 has the highest batting average so no.

 

So you wouldn't want a .360 hitter????????

 

This season on 3-0 counts batters are getting hits 41.7% of the time and walking 90.8% of the time. Taking a 3-0 pitch more than doubles your chances of getting on base. There's no reason to swing the bat ever.

 

So wait you would rather have a walk than an extra base hit? Why take the walk when the extra base hit puts the player in a better position to score?

 

Quick edit even after missing the strike at 3-0 this year on 3-1 counts batters are hitting this line:

.375 .703 .675 1.378

 

Again another advantageous position for the batter. Every batter should be swinging at pitches that are in the strike zone and should not be looking at them when they are up in the count. I don't care if it is bases loaded bottom of the 9th and the count is 3-0. I want the batter swinging at that pitch if it is a strike the batter can handle. Anyone who puts up a take sign on that is just lunacy.

 

Balls put in play are outs more than 70% of the time. Ball fours are outs 0% of the time.

[nate82]

 

Balls put in play are outs more than 70% of the time. Ball fours are outs 0% of the time.

 

I will take the chance of the out and take the extra base hits.

[rickh150]

By count 3-0 has the highest batting average so no.

 

So you wouldn't want a .360 hitter????????

 

This season on 3-0 counts batters are getting hits 41.7% of the time and walking 90.8% of the time. Taking a 3-0 pitch more than doubles your chances of getting on base. There's no reason to swing the bat ever.

 

So wait you would rather have a walk than an extra base hit? Why take the walk when the extra base hit puts the player in a better position to score?

 

Quick edit even after missing the strike at 3-0 this year on 3-1 counts batters are hitting this line:

.375 .703 .675 1.378

 

Again another advantageous position for the batter. Every batter should be swinging at pitches that are in the strike zone and should not be looking at them when they are up in the count. I don't care if it is bases loaded bottom of the 9th and the count is 3-0. I want the batter swinging at that pitch if it is a strike the batter can handle. Anyone who puts up a take sign on that is just lunacy.

 

 

Game situation is the key here... You are not mentioning it.

 

Brewers were down by 5. A swing and homer, the best possible outcome, still has them down by 1. Rally is then kind of over.... Pitcher can work out of the stretch with no one on base. Although homer is great, taking a pitch there, like jericho clearly stated (great stat), doubles your chance of getting on base by NOT swinging 3-0! Let the pitcher hang himself in this GAME SITUATION. Being down 5, we need base runners. Whatever is the best odds of getting on base, take it. Taking a pitch ( or two if player's average is middling or poor) is the right move. Get the tying run to the plate and then the situation changes. Now, if it's a 4 run game, bases loaded, and someone with pop is up, I'm all for letting it rip 3-0.

 

Game situation matters.

[jerichoholicninja]

 

Balls put in play are outs more than 70% of the time. Ball fours are outs 0% of the time.

 

I will take the chance of the out and take the extra base hits.

 

A pitcher throws 3 balls in a row for a reason. Either they're pitching around you (in which case you shouldn't swing because they are trying to walk you) or they can't find the plate (what makes you think they'll find it 3-0 if they couldn't 2-0). Interesting factoid, the BABIP on 3-0 counts this year is .335. Better than overall but swinging 3-0 still made an out almost 70% of the time. I see almost no situation where swinging 3-0 is a good idea. Maybe with the winning run on third with no outs but even then I would only want an elite hitter doing it.

[TURBO]

 

Maybe the coaching staff can make him into that smarter baserunner...

 

They never fixed Gomez, and they make no attempt at fixing Sedar as our 3B coach.

 

Just saying...

[rickh150]

Are you upset with Villar or with the coaching staff? The general rule of thumb is to take 3-0, but I have heard vets get a green light if it's the exact pitch they are looking for.

 

Hill was swinging, by the way..... Uh, I don't know.... Both Hill and coaches, I guess. Yet, ultimately, these strategy decisions fall on Counsell. I'm finding that manager and coaches do not have a good hold of player strategy. Maybe that is similar on other teams too, not sure. I say this partly because of my minute conversation with Ed Sedar last season...

 

http://forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?f=63&t=33233&p=957632&hilit=Sedar#p957632

 

I personally think you're a chronic nitpicker of a rebuilding team. Brewers could win 15-0 each game for the next week and you'd be complaining because Counsell brought in Torres instead of Thornburg in game 4. I think you should stick to your softball dynasty.

 

 

I'm not "nitpicking" the team's ERA, averages, players with lack of power, our starting 9, bullpen management, bunting abilities, etc. I'm pointing out our beloved team's obvious mental goofs and absolute mistakes on kindergarten baseball matters that the media ( until only recently-Tom H.) is failing to pointedly ask CC. Nothing to do with talent..... Everything to do with being smart, playing smart.... whether we have a good record or not, be it rebuilding or a playoff team.

 

Also, thanks for the high praise for my softball team....... Undeserved.

[brewerfan82]

By count 3-0 has the highest batting average so no.

 

So you wouldn't want a .360 hitter????????

 

This season on 3-0 counts batters are getting hits 41.7% of the time and walking 90.8% of the time. Taking a 3-0 pitch more than doubles your chances of getting on base. There's no reason to swing the bat ever.

 

So wait you would rather have a walk than an extra base hit? Why take the walk when the extra base hit puts the player in a better position to score?

 

Quick edit even after missing the strike at 3-0 this year on 3-1 counts batters are hitting this line:

.375 .703 .675 1.378

 

Again another advantageous position for the batter. Every batter should be swinging at pitches that are in the strike zone and should not be looking at them when they are up in the count. I don't care if it is bases loaded bottom of the 9th and the count is 3-0. I want the batter swinging at that pitch if it is a strike the batter can handle. Anyone who puts up a take sign on that is just lunacy.

 

Wait... so in the situation we're talking about, the team is down by 5 in the 9th inning with the bases loaded... 3-0 hitters are able to draw a walk (which requires not swinging) 90% of the time, which would score a run and bring the tying run to the plate. But you want to swing, which only results in a hit 40% of the time, because it might result in an extra base hit, which would still result in the tying run coming to the plate? And you even mention that if they take a strike on 3-0, they still will have a great batting line with a 3-1 count. Explain again why you're advocating swinging on a 3-0 count in this situation and saying it's "the definition of stupid" not to?

[adambr2]

By count 3-0 has the highest batting average so no.

 

So you wouldn't want a .360 hitter????????

 

This season on 3-0 counts batters are getting hits 41.7% of the time and walking 90.8% of the time. Taking a 3-0 pitch more than doubles your chances of getting on base. There's no reason to swing the bat ever.

 

So wait you would rather have a walk than an extra base hit? Why take the walk when the extra base hit puts the player in a better position to score?

 

Quick edit even after missing the strike at 3-0 this year on 3-1 counts batters are hitting this line:

.375 .703 .675 1.378

 

Again another advantageous position for the batter. Every batter should be swinging at pitches that are in the strike zone and should not be looking at them when they are up in the count. I don't care if it is bases loaded bottom of the 9th and the count is 3-0. I want the batter swinging at that pitch if it is a strike the batter can handle. Anyone who puts up a take sign on that is just lunacy.

 

I would much, much rather have a walk 90.8% of the time than a hit 41.7% of the time.

 

I mean, don't get me wrong, both are great odds for those occurrences, but the first option odds is very obviously much better.

[rickh150]

By count 3-0 has the highest batting average so no.

 

So you wouldn't want a .360 hitter????????

 

This season on 3-0 counts batters are getting hits 41.7% of the time and walking 90.8% of the time. Taking a 3-0 pitch more than doubles your chances of getting on base. There's no reason to swing the bat ever.

 

Interested in your source.....

 

Came back to the computer after thinking about your stats. I can't see the 90% being true just on taking a 3-0 pitch. That means that pitchers are throwing strikes 10% of the time on 3-0 counts when many are just throwing "get me over" fastballs. That can't be. Perhaps batters are walking 90% of the time if they don 't swing AFTER getting a 3-0 count; even that seems high (although intentional walk #'s help).

 

My guess is that the on base (walk) % for taking ON a 3-0 count is much closer to 40%, meaning the pitcher is throwing strikes 60% of the time. The on base % for those taking on 3-0 and then (if not walked already) hitting/walking/get out would be around 50 to 60%, just guessing.

 

In any event, the obp is the number to look at in that 5 run scenerio, and the obp increases when taking a pitch on 3-0.

[danzig6767]

 

Maybe the coaching staff can make him into that smarter baserunner...

They never fixed Gomez, and they make no attempt at fixing Sedar as our 3B coach.

 

Just saying...

I don't blame coaches who can't fix flaws in players which sometimes simply can't be fixed.

[jerichoholicninja]

By count 3-0 has the highest batting average so no.

 

So you wouldn't want a .360 hitter????????

 

This season on 3-0 counts batters are getting hits 41.7% of the time and walking 90.8% of the time. Taking a 3-0 pitch more than doubles your chances of getting on base. There's no reason to swing the bat ever.

 

Interested in your source.....

 

Came back to the computer after thinking about your stats. I can't see the 90% being true just on taking a 3-0 pitch. That means that pitchers are throwing strikes 10% of the time on 3-0 counts when many are just throwing "get me over" fastballs. That can't be. Perhaps batters are walking 90% of the time if they don 't swing AFTER getting a 3-0 count; even that seems high (although intentional walk #'s help).

 

My guess is that the on base (walk) % for taking ON a 3-0 count is much closer to 40%, meaning the pitcher is throwing strikes 60% of the time. The on base % for those taking on 3-0 and then (if not walked already) hitting/walking/get out would be around 50 to 60%, just guessing.

 

In any event, the obp is the number to look at in that 5 run scenerio, and the obp increases when taking a pitch on 3-0.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&lg=MLB&year=2016

 

These are stats for a PA decided on a 3-0 count, 1927 walks in 2123 PA is 90.8% of the time. If you don't count the 517 intentional walks the numbers dropped to a still huge 87.8% of the time. If you want to know after a 3-0 count then 30.5% are hits and only 64% are walks.

[stoutdude04]

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&lg=MLB&year=2016

 

 

The batter walks 90% of the time but the 3-0 pitch is not ball 4 90% of the time. IF IN FACT, pitch 4 is a ball 40% of the time that someone suggested, but batting averages are 41% on pitch 4...which would you rather have?

 

Unless I'm reading that Stat wrong...could be.

 

 

Edit:someone else mentione it.