Villar Cherry-Picking 3rd

[adambr2]

It's not surprising that Villar has made many more outs on the bases than Lucroy, Braun, and Carter, who are all pretty much station to station guys. It comes with his style of play.

 

Fangraphs grades out Villar, as they have every season, as a slightly above average baserunner. So the good he does on the bases has still outweighed the boneheaded mistakes.

 

If you would have told me at the beginning of the year that Villar would be still leading off daily, getting on base 38% of the time and hitting .300 and leading MLB in stolen bases and people would want to run him out of town, I wouldn't have thought it possible. Mark A. was on TV today and discussing Villar's baserunning mistakes and noted that he's still learning and that no one feels as bad about his mistakes as him. That doesn't sound like a guy that Mark A thinks is a selfish player.

 

With some of these young aggressive guys, you've got to take the bad with the good and hope they learn along the way. As a rebuilding team, we can definitely afford to do that right now. For whatever reason, people just get so disgusted with guys like Carlos Gomez that anyone who reminds them of him is instantly met with disdain.

 

Well, Carlos Gomez is not the reason we're rebuilding now. Carlos Gomez was a really, really good player for us, mistakes and all.

 

Villar is a really good player now too, and I'll take a guy like him every time over having to re-experience guys like Izturis and Betancourt manning the position.

[rickh150]

Villar is a really good player now too, and I'll take a guy like him every time over having to re-experience guys like Izturis and Betancourt manning the position.

 

 

Happy with Villar too overall ..... Just clean up the simple, selfish, little league mistake of taking 3rd with two out! The other with him is getting chucked at 3rd on a routine grounder to short.

[jerichoholicninja]

Villar is a really good player now too, and I'll take a guy like him every time over having to re-experience guys like Izturis and Betancourt manning the position.

 

 

Happy with Villar too overall ..... Just clean up the simple, selfish, little league mistake of taking 3rd with two out! The other with him is getting chucked at 3rd on a routine grounder to short.

 

Aren't those the same things Gomez did that he hasn't changed?

[MrTPlush]

Gosh darn it for Villar safely stealing 3rd base with two outs!

[A Swing and A Drive]

I was thinking about starting a thread entitled "Ed Sedar Sucks", because the solution to this problem is simple fundamentals. He is just terrible at being a base coach. If he was coaching 3rd for my softball team, I'd probably pull him from his duties after about 2 innings. There isn't much more that needs to be said, really.

 

Carlos Gomez was an old dog who couldn't learn new tricks (i.e. fundamentals of baserunning), but there is still hope for our young pup Jonathan Villar!

 

SOMEONE on Craig Counsel's coaching staff simply needs to explain to Villar why stealing 3rd with 2 outs is not smart baseball and why.

 

While a player is developing in the minors, a coach should have addressed this issue by benching Villar each time he made the mistake and the problem would have corrected itself by now.

 

Brewer fans are certainly very happy with Jonathan Villars overall play so far and no one is wanting to run him out of town on a rail.

 

They just are frustrated with the lack of simple baseball fundamentals still apparent on the Brewers....that were lacking in a guy like Carlos Gomez, but are instilled in most little leaguers.

[young guns]

Are we sure the coaching staff doesnt want him attempting to steal third with 2 outs?

[tmwiese55]

Not sure on the stealing 3rd question just posed but Counsel was very clearly POd yesterday at the pickoff at 1B when it was 1st and 3rd 1out with Braun at the plate in a tied game. Counsel is usually expressionless but i could see some anger in him there.

[BuckyBrewer61]

For what it's worth, let's look at the numbers about taking 3rd and the traditional "fundamentals" of base running. Used an expected runs scored table (http://gregstoll.dyndns.org/~gregstoll/baseball/runsperinning.html) from a quick google search.

 

Making the 3rd out at 3rd:

Man on 2nd, 2 outs: 0.33 expected runs scored, 22.2% chance of scoring at least 1 run.

Man on 3rd, 2 outs: 0.37 expected runs scored, 26.9% chance of scoring at least 1 run.

Thrown out at 3rd, 3 outs: Obviously zeros across the board.

Advantage gained by getting to 3rd: 0.04 runs gained, 4.7% higher chance of scoring a run.

Disadvantage of getting thrown out: 0.33 runs lost, 22.2% less chance of scoring a run

 

I'm sure there's someone out there better than I am at stats...but in my simple mind, in this situation a runner would have to get to 3rd safely about 8 times to justify getting thrown out once (gain 0.04 runs x 8 times = 0.32 runs gained vs 0.33 runs lost for 1 out) and about 4-5 times per out to still score at least one run just as often. Certainly doesn't seem worth the risk, but to me it actually seems a bit more justified than I would've initially thought.

 

What I've always found more interesting is the dogma of "don't make the 1st out at 3rd," as this seems to imply a high success rate of "get him over, get him in," even without a hit. As a Brewer fan that has seen this fail what feels like 98% of the time...I'm guessing this is a lot less clear if we break down the stats, but let's see.

 

Making the 1st out at 3rd

Man on 2nd, 0 outs: 1.10 expected runs scored, 61.7% chance of scoring at least 1 run.

Man on 3rd, 0 outs: 1.33 expected runs scored, 82.2% chance of scoring at least 1 run.

Thrown out at 3rd, 0 men on, 1 out: 0.26 expected runs scored, 15.8% chance of scoring at least 1 run.

Advantage gained by getting to 3rd: 0.23 runs gained, 20.5% higher chance of scoring a run.

Disadvantage getting thrown out at 3rd: 0.84 runs lost, 45.9% less chance of scoring a run.

 

Not surprisingly, you'd have to get to 3rd less frequently in this setting to justify the risk, arriving safely at 3rd about 3-4 times per out to score an equal number of runs over the long haul, and just 2-3 times per out to still score at least 1 run as frequently.

 

This is obviously oversimplified and doesn't take into account other runners on the base paths, innings and situation, etc. But it is interesting that, when you break down the numbers, there is something tangible gained getting to 3rd base, and there is an not-unrealistic rate of successfully taking that extra base that can be justified.

[Thurston Fluff]

He's now made 10 outs on the bases, not including the 9 caught stealing and 2 times he's been picked off.

 

Outs on the bases:

Runner is put out while making a baserunning play.

Example plays: out advancing on a fly ball, out attempting to reach another base on a hit,

doubled off on a line drive, or out attempting to advance on a wild pitch or passed ball.

Does not include pickoffs, caught stealing, or force plays.

 

Breaking them down:

3 at first, 5 at 3rd (!!) and 2 at home.

 

By comparison, Lucroy, Braun and Carter have made a total of 8 outs on the bases.

 

This doesn't take into account how many times his base running added something the other three do not. If for instance he added more runs due to his base running than the other three combined that kind of changes the picture doesn't it?

[MilwaukeesBest]

He's now made 10 outs on the bases, not including the 9 caught stealing and 2 times he's been picked off.

 

Outs on the bases:

Runner is put out while making a baserunning play.

Example plays: out advancing on a fly ball, out attempting to reach another base on a hit,

doubled off on a line drive, or out attempting to advance on a wild pitch or passed ball.

Does not include pickoffs, caught stealing, or force plays.

 

Breaking them down:

3 at first, 5 at 3rd (!!) and 2 at home.

 

By comparison, Lucroy, Braun and Carter have made a total of 8 outs on the bases.

 

This doesn't take into account how many times his base running added something the other three do not. If for instance he added more runs due to his base running than the other three combined that kind of changes the picture doesn't it?

 

But, but, but.... those stats don't agree with their posts and opinions!

[Baldkin]

He's now made 10 outs on the bases, not including the 9 caught stealing and 2 times he's been picked off.

 

Outs on the bases:

Runner is put out while making a baserunning play.

Example plays: out advancing on a fly ball, out attempting to reach another base on a hit,

doubled off on a line drive, or out attempting to advance on a wild pitch or passed ball.

Does not include pickoffs, caught stealing, or force plays.

 

Breaking them down:

3 at first, 5 at 3rd (!!) and 2 at home.

 

By comparison, Lucroy, Braun and Carter have made a total of 8 outs on the bases.

 

This doesn't take into account how many times his base running added something the other three do not. If for instance he added more runs due to his base running than the other three combined that kind of changes the picture doesn't it?

 

You're absolutely correct. I just pulled the 3 guys who had the most PA's for the Brewers other than Villar and added them together.

 

His speed effects the game and adds runs to the table, however, being stupid and getting thrown out that often is not a good thing. The point is, eliminate the stupid mistakes and he'll be worth even more to the team.

[rickh150]

He's now made 10 outs on the bases, not including the 9 caught stealing and 2 times he's been picked off.

 

Outs on the bases:

Runner is put out while making a baserunning play.

Example plays: out advancing on a fly ball, out attempting to reach another base on a hit,

doubled off on a line drive, or out attempting to advance on a wild pitch or passed ball.

Does not include pickoffs, caught stealing, or force plays.

 

Breaking them down:

3 at first, 5 at 3rd (!!) and 2 at home.

 

By comparison, Lucroy, Braun and Carter have made a total of 8 outs on the bases.

 

 

Everybody that is defending Villar, read this info again! Ten unforced errors on the bases! Five at third! I have played ball for decades and cannot remember any whole team of mine getting chucked at 3rd 5 times in one season ( unforced).

 

Great info! Source?

[stoutdude04]

He's now made 10 outs on the bases, not including the 9 caught stealing and 2 times he's been picked off.

 

Outs on the bases:

Runner is put out while making a baserunning play.

Example plays: out advancing on a fly ball, out attempting to reach another base on a hit,

doubled off on a line drive, or out attempting to advance on a wild pitch or passed ball.

Does not include pickoffs, caught stealing, or force plays.

 

Breaking them down:

3 at first, 5 at 3rd (!!) and 2 at home.

 

By comparison, Lucroy, Braun and Carter have made a total of 8 outs on the bases.

 

 

Everybody that is defending Villar, read this info again! Ten unforced errors on the bases! Five at third! I have played ball for decades and cannot remember any whole team of mine getting chucked at 3rd 5 times in one season ( unforced).

 

Great info! Source?

 

 

You seem most upset by the outs created at 3rd...any outs on the bases are bad. With that being said, I personally am not going to hate a guy that is getting on base at a 380 clip and attempts to make plays. It's the see reason why I liked Gomez. He goes out and hustles. Does he make bone headed plays? Yes, but I imagine he's also created plays by running all over the field too. Perhaps there are things going on behind the closed doors that we don't know about. Perhaps he is still learning, or perhaps he will just never get it. I couldn't care less.

 

Just out of curiosity I went to bref and check Altuves stats from last year. He made 19 outs on the bases with 5 being at 3rd and 8 at home. I

[adambr2]

And again Villar is going to make a lot more outs than most others at 3rd because he takes a lot more chances and gets a lot more extra bases and opportunities.

 

Do I agree Villar should clean up his baserunning, of course. He's a work in progress. It's not like we're going to be competing for a WS this year.

 

As stoutdude just pointed out Villar is basically on pace for what Altuve did as far as baserunning mistakes last year. So IMO the angst is a bit overblown. Villar is one of the best things to happen to this team in the first half yet instead or a thread about those successes we only have one talking about his mistakes.

[QuevedosTongue]

He's now made 10 outs on the bases, not including the 9 caught stealing and 2 times he's been picked off.

 

Outs on the bases:

Runner is put out while making a baserunning play.

Example plays: out advancing on a fly ball, out attempting to reach another base on a hit,

doubled off on a line drive, or out attempting to advance on a wild pitch or passed ball.

Does not include pickoffs, caught stealing, or force plays.

 

Breaking them down:

3 at first, 5 at 3rd (!!) and 2 at home.

 

By comparison, Lucroy, Braun and Carter have made a total of 8 outs on the bases.

 

 

Everybody that is defending Villar, read this info again! Ten unforced errors on the bases! Five at third! I have played ball for decades and cannot remember any whole team of mine getting chucked at 3rd 5 times in one season ( unforced).

 

Great info! Source?

 

Maybe you guys weren't aggressive enough taking extra bases.

[Thurston Fluff]

You're absolutely correct. I just pulled the 3 guys who had the most PA's for the Brewers other than Villar and added them together.

 

His speed effects the game and adds runs to the table, however, being stupid and getting thrown out that often is not a good thing. The point is, eliminate the stupid mistakes and he'll be worth even more to the team.

 

If every player eliminates their worst trait the team will be better. Problem is every player has flaws some are just more obvious than others. One other thing we should keep in mind is aggressive base running isn't the only way to make stupid mistakes on the base paths, just the most noticeable. Not taking second when you could then the next guy comes up and hits into a double play is also stupid base running. But nobody notices that. Ditto for not going first to third when you can or tagging and moving up a base when you can. Those are all also mistakes but they never get noticed or counted against the conservative base runner.

[brewerfan82]

For what it's worth, let's look at the numbers about taking 3rd and the traditional "fundamentals" of base running. Used an expected runs scored table (http://gregstoll.dyndns.org/~gregstoll/baseball/runsperinning.html) from a quick google search.

 

Making the 3rd out at 3rd:

Man on 2nd, 2 outs: 0.33 expected runs scored, 22.2% chance of scoring at least 1 run.

Man on 3rd, 2 outs: 0.37 expected runs scored, 26.9% chance of scoring at least 1 run.

Thrown out at 3rd, 3 outs: Obviously zeros across the board.

Advantage gained by getting to 3rd: 0.04 runs gained, 4.7% higher chance of scoring a run.

Disadvantage of getting thrown out: 0.33 runs lost, 22.2% less chance of scoring a run

 

I'm sure there's someone out there better than I am at stats...but in my simple mind, in this situation a runner would have to get to 3rd safely about 8 times to justify getting thrown out once (gain 0.04 runs x 8 times = 0.32 runs gained vs 0.33 runs lost for 1 out) and about 4-5 times per out to still score at least one run just as often. Certainly doesn't seem worth the risk, but to me it actually seems a bit more justified than I would've initially thought.

 

What I've always found more interesting is the dogma of "don't make the 1st out at 3rd," as this seems to imply a high success rate of "get him over, get him in," even without a hit. As a Brewer fan that has seen this fail what feels like 98% of the time...I'm guessing this is a lot less clear if we break down the stats, but let's see.

 

Making the 1st out at 3rd

Man on 2nd, 0 outs: 1.10 expected runs scored, 61.7% chance of scoring at least 1 run.

Man on 3rd, 0 outs: 1.33 expected runs scored, 82.2% chance of scoring at least 1 run.

Thrown out at 3rd, 0 men on, 1 out: 0.26 expected runs scored, 15.8% chance of scoring at least 1 run.

Advantage gained by getting to 3rd: 0.23 runs gained, 20.5% higher chance of scoring a run.

Disadvantage getting thrown out at 3rd: 0.84 runs lost, 45.9% less chance of scoring a run.

 

Not surprisingly, you'd have to get to 3rd less frequently in this setting to justify the risk, arriving safely at 3rd about 3-4 times per out to score an equal number of runs over the long haul, and just 2-3 times per out to still score at least 1 run as frequently.

 

This is obviously oversimplified and doesn't take into account other runners on the base paths, innings and situation, etc. But it is interesting that, when you break down the numbers, there is something tangible gained getting to 3rd base, and there is an not-unrealistic rate of successfully taking that extra base that can be justified.

 

Great post! It doesn't matter if you're an aggressive baserunner or not, you should know before a play even starts that with two outs it doesn't help much getting to 3rd instead of 2nd, *especially* if you have speed. That's why it's frustrating. It shows the player isn't even thinking about the situation, just blindly trying to grab an extra base when it barely helps. So when Villar gets thrown out at 3rd 5 times with 2 out (not sure if that stat earlier was with 2 outs or just in general), it means he better have taken 3rd successfully 40 other times to *maybe* even it out.

 

All that said, I really like Villar, it just seems preventable when all it takes is a second to note the situation beforehand. It'd be like a first baseman constantly trying to throw guys out at home for the final out of an inning instead of just stepping on the bag.

[logan82]

You're absolutely correct. I just pulled the 3 guys who had the most PA's for the Brewers other than Villar and added them together.

 

His speed effects the game and adds runs to the table, however, being stupid and getting thrown out that often is not a good thing. The point is, eliminate the stupid mistakes and he'll be worth even more to the team.

 

If every player eliminates their worst trait the team will be better. Problem is every player has flaws some are just more obvious than others. One other thing we should keep in mind is aggressive base running isn't the only way to make stupid mistakes on the base paths, just the most noticeable. Not taking second when you could then the next guy comes up and hits into a double play is also stupid base running. But nobody notices that. Ditto for not going first to third when you can or tagging and moving up a base when you can. Those are all also mistakes but they never get noticed or counted against the conservative base runner.

Those plays are a little easier to deal with than a CS at 3b.

[jerichoholicninja]

The idea of being aggressive, taking extra bases, and making the defense make a play works great in high school and college but these are major league defenses. Aside from a few butchers in the field (Manny, Adam Dunn) and noodle arms (Khrush, Nyjer) major league defenders are going to get you out the vast majority of the time when you try and push it.

 

Villar is fast and a good base stealer, I don't think anyone would argue that, so please go ahead and try to steal second and maybe go home on an infield ground ball every now and then. But there is such little advantage gained by being on third over second, especially with two outs, that it's just not worth any risk of getting thrown out in my opinion.

[rickh150]

Outs on the bases:

Runner is put out while making a baserunning play.

Example plays: out advancing on a fly ball, out attempting to reach another base on a hit,

doubled off on a line drive, or out attempting to advance on a wild pitch or passed ball.

Does not include pickoffs, caught stealing, or

 

 

You seem most upset by the outs created at 3rd...any outs on the bases are bad. With that being said, I personally am not going to hate a guy that is getting on base at a 380 clip and attempts to make plays. It's the see reason why I liked Gomez. He goes out and hustles. Does he make bone headed plays? Yes, but I imagine he's also created plays by running all over the field too. Perhaps there are things going on behind the closed doors that we don't know about. Perhaps he is still learning, or perhaps he will just never get it. I couldn't care less.

 

Just out of curiosity I went to bref and check Altuves stats from last year. He made 19 outs on the bases with 5 being at 3rd and 8 at home. I

 

 

You couldn't care less? Sounds like Villar's attitude... To me, I care about shooting ourself in the foot time and time again with zero change.

 

Sounds like Altuve needs to clean up his baserunning too. Good try in trying to justify stupidity.

 

Villar, having a great season, not arguing that. I'm not upset when he gets caught stealing second, especially when there is two outs and he is trying to get into scoring position. Hustle plays, same thing..... There is a time and place to try to stretch singles to doubles, doubles to triples. The reward is great enough to take on the risk. However, the man hasn't a clue how to decipher when to go or not and sadly needs to start being held accountable for the same mistakes time and time again..... Five unforced outs at 3B???? Not including stolen bases? And we're just at the All-Star break?

 

This is a great season for all players, including the young good ones like Villar, to be taught.

[stoutdude04]

Outs on the bases:

Runner is put out while making a baserunning play.

Example plays: out advancing on a fly ball, out attempting to reach another base on a hit,

doubled off on a line drive, or out attempting to advance on a wild pitch or passed ball.

Does not include pickoffs, caught stealing, or

 

 

You seem most upset by the outs created at 3rd...any outs on the bases are bad. With that being said, I personally am not going to hate a guy that is getting on base at a 380 clip and attempts to make plays. It's the see reason why I liked Gomez. He goes out and hustles. Does he make bone headed plays? Yes, but I imagine he's also created plays by running all over the field too. Perhaps there are things going on behind the closed doors that we don't know about. Perhaps he is still learning, or perhaps he will just never get it. I couldn't care less.

 

Just out of curiosity I went to bref and check Altuves stats from last year. He made 19 outs on the bases with 5 being at 3rd and 8 at home. I

 

 

You couldn't care less? Sounds like Villar's attitude... To me, I care about shooting ourself in the foot time and time again with zero change.

 

Sounds like Altuve needs to clean up his baserunning too. Good try in trying to justify stupidity.

 

Villar, having a great season, not arguing that. I'm not upset when he gets caught stealing second, especially when there is two outs and he is trying to get into scoring position. Hustle plays, same thing..... There is a time and place to try to stretch singles to doubles, doubles to triples. The reward is great enough to take on the risk. However, the man hasn't a clue how to decipher when to go or not and sadly needs to start being held accountable for the same mistakes time and time again..... Five unforced outs at 3B???? Not including stolen bases? And we're just at the All-Star break?

 

This is a great season for all players, including the young good ones like Villar, to be taught.

 

I was simply showing a similar player that I assume most would have no issue with if he was on our team. Guy gets on base a lot and tries to make plays on the bases. I consider them similar (in no way am I saying Villar is Altuve).

[Devinep]

The moron did it again today.

[MilwaukeesBest]

The moron did it again today.

 

While they seem pretty preventable I think the group of people that calls him a "moron" for getting thrown out are also the ones who applaud and praise him as he leads the league in steals. He's still a young player learning to steal. Why not in a year with no expectations see how far you can push the envelope? As frustrating as some of the blunders may be between him and our old friend Carlos Gomez, these two players have also contributed to scoring runs and putting themselves in positions to score that other players simply cannot do due to their tools. In any situation you're going to get some good with the bad. Any player. Chris Carter K's, Braun has chronic injuries, Scooter is handcuffed to second and can maybe? hit lefties, etc.

 

That "moron" coming into the season was a castoff by his old organization. Looked at as maybe a utility guy and placeholder until Arcia is ready. Now he could be long term with the organization as he bats around .300 with some pop and speed. Growing pains are part of it.

[brewerfan82]

I wouldn't call him a moron, but it really is frustrating to see him do this repeatably. I'm in the group that disagrees with him even attempting a stolen base in that situation, and while I think it's exciting to have the major league leader in steals, plays like that ruin it. It makes it seem like he's doing it just to pad that stat, which makes it even more irritating. I can't imagine the coaching staff thinks it's worth trying to advance from 2nd to 3rd with 2 outs, and on a stolen base it's so premeditated I can't fathom Villar doesn't understand that there's 2 outs and it's ill advised to risk taking that base at that time. So why does it keep happening? Does he and/or the coaching staff really just not care that he keeps taking an unnecessary risk in those situations??

[rickh150]

Get serious, coaching staff! Yes, sit him for a game, that is if he is not following signs! If he hasn't been told not to steal in certain situations, shame on Counsell! Yes, shame for putting selfish stat in front of team goal.