Villar Cherry-Picking 3rd

[rickh150]

Tired .... So tired of seeing certain Brewers mistakes. I can live with most, but always hate to see these 3

- runner out at 3rd for 1st out

- runner out at home for 1st out

- runner out at 3rd for 3rd out

 

Now, I believe we have been better under Counsell with not breaking these as much as with RR (Gomez was the king of breaking these with no change and I mean none over time) Now, I see Villar routinely try and often succeed in stealing 3rd with two outs. It doesn't matter if we are down by 5 in the 8th, if a hot hitting Lucroy or Braun is up. Situation? Doesn't matter. The guy has the keys to the car with Dad's blessing and a pocketful of hundreds to pay the fines if caught. It doesn't matter if he's caught, almost caught, thrown out, he is doing the same thing night in night out to his benefit and the team's detriment.

 

I absolutely hate this for any baseball team. One- because There is definitely a time not to steal. The risk isn't worth the reward (a runner can score from 2nd without a throw most often on any sort of hit with two outs). Two- a loose cannon on the bases hurts us more than helps us in key situations. Three- it shows us that the manager doesn't prioritize outs on the bases as highly as he should. Four- it looks like Villar truly cares about his personal stats and stolen base leader status MORE than making an unforced error on the bases.

 

For me, it's an Easy fix to this one.. When Villar is on second with two out, a stop sign is put up by Sedar. Why not?

[adambr2]

How many times has he been thrown out in that exact situation? I know he's attempted to swipe 3rd with 2 out but I don't know what his rate is taking 3rd with 2 out.

[rickh150]

How many times has he been thrown out in that exact situation? I know he's attempted to swipe 3rd with 2 out but I don't know what his rate is taking 3rd with 2 out.

 

Not sure.... Just a few is my guess on steals. Not the point, though. He shouldn't even be looking to steal it straight up. Reward isn't worth risk....Plenty of times getting chucked at 3rd when not stealing, especially on grounder to SS, however.

[adambr2]

I wouldn't say it's not the point. Villar has been caught stealing at 3rd only twice this season and four times in his entire career. He has an 82% success rate stealing 3rd this year and 85% for his career. So obviously he has a pretty good idea of when he can and can't make it.

 

Obviously I don't want him just doing it every time, but when the situation warrants, sure. If he can keep the risk at that minimal 15-18%, I have no issue. A guy in scoring position doesn't guarantee a score with every basehit. There's still an added advantage of a man at 3rd.

 

I don't think throwing him a permanent stop sign at 2nd is the answer.

[jerichoholicninja]

I don't understand the "don't make the 1st or 3rd out where ever" theory. How about, don't make an out anywhere ever?

 

As for stealing 3rd I just don't see that big of an advantage of being on 3B versus 2B in the majors especially with 2 outs. At 3B you're only scoring on a WP, PB, or E that you wouldn't score on at 2B and those aren't very common in MLB. To me it's not worth the risk no matter who the baserunner is.

[1992casey]

If a guy is handed a base on a silver platter, even if it's Bartolo Colón, he should steal it. In other words, I'd never say never. Almost never? Yeah, I can go with that.

 

If there's a question, I'd want to risk to be something less than the 15-18% that Adam mentions. Maybe more like 5-10%. I think the score and inning come into play too.

[adambr2]

Here's an interesting question. ..what is the success rate scoring from 2nd on a single? (which I'm sure we can all agree is basically 100% from 3rd). It's referred to as scoring position , but it's not a certain run on a hit. 3rd is. I'm sure the success rate is higher with 2 out, though.

[rickh150]

Just happened again..... If Cardinals third baseman catches ball, Villar is out at third, inning over. Carter then walked, Kirk base hit (which would have scored Villar from second anyway).

Dumb baseball.....

[rickh150]

And he's running on Molina.... Double dumb.

[adambr2]

Seems like everyone was running on Molina today.

[markedman5]

If I'm CC I'm putting stop sign on Villar on 2nd base with 2 outs. He does t seem to care about the risk reward aspect of stealing 3rd in that situation. Looks like he is just trying to pile up stats.

[rickh150]

I don't understand the "don't make the 1st or 3rd out where ever" theory. How about, don't make an out anywhere ever?

 

Risk/Reward....

Then no risk is ever taken. Runners from 2B stops at 3B on a base hit to the outfield. No one tries to steal a base. No one stretches a single into a double.

 

There is a time and place to risk an out, and there are definite times, unbeknownst to Villar, when you don't.

[JohnBriggs12]

I'm not sure Villar is a winning type player. He has plenty of ability but seems more interested in his stats than he does playing smart baseball. Then there's the timing of his errors. Seems he's made most of them in high leverage situations. At some point I would look to move him. Not this year but when his value is high.

[trwi7]

If you want to move him when his value is high, I'm not sure you're going to find a better time than now.

[adambr2]

I still don't think Villar brings nearly enough in return to match the fair value that he brings to us.

[brewcrewdue80]

The idea of what is the stat of runners scoring from 2nd base with 2outs on a hit can't be justified when comparing a Villar speed to a Chris Carter Speed on 2b. At contact with 2 outs he's gone, and you know windmill Sedar is sending him home. To me, that is a better 2out situation then risking the 3rd out at 3b(especially who is up 2-4 in order). 90feet catcher throw, or a 150+feet OF throw.

2. On that hit situation, OFs will know Villar's speed. To try and gun him out at home is bringing in to play the Hitter advancing in to scoring position at 2b. It just shouldn't happen unless the Pitcher is completely poor at holding him to the base, and you're facing a catcher who's not known as a Caught Stealing threat. Even then, it's reckless because he's doing this with #2-4 in the lineup. Meaning Hitting and cleaning up baserunners is what they are paid to do. To steal 3b and then hope to score on a Wild Pitch is so small an occurrence It's gotta be less often than actually getting thrown out.

[DHonks]

if catchers assume everyone abides by the aforementioned rules, they'll get lax. That's the best time to steal 3rd. I remember about 10-12 years ago hearing that Chip Hale loved having guys steal 3rd in the minors with 2 outs, because the catcher was often taken by surprise and threw the ball into the outfield corner, resulting in a run.

[Thurston Fluff]

If a guy is handed a base on a silver platter, even if it's Bartolo Colón, he should steal it. In other words, I'd never say never. Almost never? Yeah, I can go with that.

 

If there's a question, I'd want to risk to be something less than the 15-18% that Adam mentions. Maybe more like 5-10%. I think the score and inning come into play too.

 

THis is where I stand on it. IF they had it to you take it. A passed ball, wild pitch, infield hit or error can score you on third but not second. But there should be no question that he would be safe. Yesterday Villar stole third and was safe but only because the defender dropped the ball. That was not a good steal even though it worked. Had he went to second without a throw or was safe by two steps I wouldn't have had a problem with it.

On a side note how cool was it to see the Brewers run all over on Molina yesterday? I don't know how many times that many players stole bases on him in his career but it couldn't be many. I hope he had a terrible night's sleep over it.

[MrTPlush]

Here we go again. We have a player who takes risks on the base paths and people think he is worthless to us.

[adambr2]

Here we go again. We have a player who takes risks on the base paths and people think he is worthless to us.

 

I can't for the life of me understand the venom on here for Villar. Yes, he takes a lot of risks and makes knucklehead outs. He also makes a lot of great baserunning plays. His 31 stolen bases before the AS break, that helps us. He also hits .300 and gets on base, as a shortstop. He's also young and cost-controlled. You'd think people would be thrilled that we got that kind of player for a minor league pitcher most had never heard of until we traded. Instead, people can't run him out of town fast enough because they don't like the way he plays the game.

[trwi7]

Here we go again. We have a player who takes risks on the base paths and people think he is worthless to us.

 

I can't for the life of me understand the venom on here for Villar.

 

You were just complaining in the game thread how the Brewers pissed away 1st and 3rd with 0 outs and Villar was a huge reason why.

[Austin Tatious]

I like Villar and hope we just roll with him. He's a guy to me who would have more value to us than whatever he might bring back.

 

The pickoff today was annoying - I get that. Leake had thrown over like 7 times, literally, and Braun was up. It was stupid.

 

But I still like the way he handles the bat and his athleticism.

[MrTPlush]

Villar is exactly the kind of player we should want and be drooling over. He plays middle infield and has stellar stats. You have to be aggressive to steal all the bases he does and advance extra bases like he does on a weekly basis.

 

I have no idea if he keeps it up or can play like this every year, but as it stands he has been incredibly valuable to this team. No way should we be looking to get rid of him.

[adambr2]

Here we go again. We have a player who takes risks on the base paths and people think he is worthless to us.

 

I can't for the life of me understand the venom on here for Villar.

 

You were just complaining in the game thread how the Brewers pissed away 1st and 3rd with 0 outs and Villar was a huge reason why.

 

Are you serious? I literally admitted in my last post that he makes boneheaded mistakes. I can't complain about that when it happens without wanting to grab a pitchfork and run him out of town?

[Baldkin]

He's now made 10 outs on the bases, not including the 9 caught stealing and 2 times he's been picked off.

 

Outs on the bases:

Runner is put out while making a baserunning play.

Example plays: out advancing on a fly ball, out attempting to reach another base on a hit,

doubled off on a line drive, or out attempting to advance on a wild pitch or passed ball.

Does not include pickoffs, caught stealing, or force plays.

 

Breaking them down:

3 at first, 5 at 3rd (!!) and 2 at home.

 

By comparison, Lucroy, Braun and Carter have made a total of 8 outs on the bases.