PREDICT which players off Brewers 25 man roster will be traded by August 1st

[Manty Brewer Fan]

I see the brewers as being super aggressive over the next month and moving the following:

Braun

Lucroy

Will Smith

Aaron Hill

Carlos Torres

Kirk Nieiwenhuis

Scooter Gennett

 

Garza will be a post deadline move.

 

Look at how stearns overhauled the team this offseason, I think he is playing his cards well so far and will make some major trades to bring in more young talent here at the deadline.

[bensheeps]

With my wife, I'm leading 14 students on a trip through Germany so I'm sure all of these trades will happen before I return next Tuesday so I can't dissect each one right away.

 

 

Thinking

Lucroy

Hill

and two bullpen arms get moved by August 1st.

[nate82]

Under(2)

Hill

Carter

 

It is a sellers market but the number of buyers for what the Brewers have just do not match up for Lucroy or Braun. Very light return and this forum implodes when these are the only two trades that happen.

[JohnBriggs12]

Everyone had Hill on their list didn't they? Was there ever a more obvious trade candidate?

 

I'd sign him again this winter and take my chances he'll bring more return in 2017.

[gregmag]

Everyone had Hill on their list didn't they? Was there ever a more obvious trade candidate?

 

I'd sign him again this winter and take my chances he'll bring more return in 2017.

Sounds plausible. We should call that strategy "k-rodding."

[JohnBriggs12]

Everyone had Hill on their list didn't they? Was there ever a more obvious trade candidate?

 

I'd sign him again this winter and take my chances he'll bring more return in 2017.

Sounds plausible. We should call that strategy "k-rodding."

 

It benefitted Hill greatly being a Brewer and showing he can still play everyday. Now he'll be a platoon/bench guy for a playoff contender so he'll need to establish his credentials as every day player again next year and what better place?

[JohnBriggs12]

Relievers are a dime a dozen. Smith goes down. Jeffress takes over. We have had a revolving door of closers over the last decade and all were pretty good.

 

They might be a dime a dozen but when a bullpen blows up, it can take down a team. That's what happened to Brewers in 2012. Yeah Fielder was gone, but Ramirez had a terrific year, Bruan was at the top of his game, Gomez was emerging and Lucroy and Maldonado combined were terrific and Hart was very productive after move to 1B. But Axford, Rodriguez, Veras, and Parra were terrible. That team should have been a playoff team. They won 83 but bullpen was historically bad. With an average pen, they win 90+ even after dealing Grienke. The pen was combined a -7.1 WAR, by far the worst in the NL.

[pacopete4]

Relievers are a dime a dozen. Smith goes down. Jeffress takes over. We have had a revolving door of closers over the last decade and all were pretty good.

 

They might be a dime a dozen but when a bullpen blows up, it can take down a team. That's what happened to Brewers in 2012. Yeah Fielder was gone, but Ramirez had a terrific year, Bruan was at the top of his game, Gomez was emerging and Lucroy and Maldonado combined were terrific and Hart was very productive after move to 1B. But Axford, Rodriguez, Veras, and Parra were terrible. That team should have been a playoff team. They won 83 but bullpen was historically bad. With an average pen, they win 90+ even after dealing Grienke. The pen was combined a -7.1 WAR, by far the worst in the NL.

 

 

That 2012 year ticks ya right off. We don't get many windows to have teams like that and our pen completely ruined it.

[And That]

They might be a dime a dozen but when a bullpen blows up, it can take down a team.

I believe the point was, it is difficult to predict on a year to year basis how a reliever is going to perform. There are only a handful of relievers in MLB who I would more or less pencil in to be good year in, year out. And I don't believe the Brewers have any of them. That's why they should seriously consider selling on Thornburg, Smith, and Jeffress.

 

Going with your 2012 example, Axford had two very good years preceding his melt down that year. K-Rod the same. Relievers are fickle.

[rwa12]

I believe a fairly good way to look at relievers is that if they were consistent and reliable, they would be starters.

[MadScientist]

I believe a fairly good way to look at relievers is that if they were consistent and reliable, they would be starters.

 

That was the old-school definition of a reliever, and still fits for long relievers. However most are one inning guys who just don't do well for a long stint. Basically they want a bunch of closers in the pen to shorten the game. The problem is that for every Hoffman or Rivera, there are dozens of Turnbows and Axfords. Even though they are controllable, may as well trade a few if the offer is good. Otherwise several will turn into Turnblows and the Brewers will get nothing for them.

[BuckyBrewer61]

I believe a fairly good way to look at relievers is that if they were consistent and reliable, they would be starters.

 

Or they have 2 pitches max, most often one plus pitch and one other pitch. Enough to give a couple hitters fits, but not get through an order more than once.

[brewcrewdue80]

They might be a dime a dozen but when a bullpen blows up, it can take down a team.

I believe the point was, it is difficult to predict on a year to year basis how a reliever is going to perform. There are only a handful of relievers in MLB who I would more or less pencil in to be good year in, year out. And I don't believe the Brewers have any of them. That's why they should seriously consider selling on Thornburg, Smith, and Jeffress.

 

Going with your 2012 example, Axford had two very good years preceding his melt down that year. K-Rod the same. Relievers are fickle.

 

Look at Smith's drastically improved numbers. And hes LH? Oh, hes Elite, its not as openly seen by fans because he has been becoming elite in a setup role.

Ken Giles even Jeffress now, get some Closer saves, and people desire you. Philly moved Giles and got a huge package including Mark Appel.

 

As i said a long time ago with Jeffress' age and closing results, since Smith was on DL and missed out as closer to start the year. Trade Jeffress. Keep Smith. He'll take over the Closer spot Jeffress vacates. And with my expected success Smith will produce, His Trade Value and an Elite status rising Jumps his value beyond anyone heres value, except mine.

[Austin Tatious]

They might be a dime a dozen but when a bullpen blows up, it can take down a team.

I believe the point was, it is difficult to predict on a year to year basis how a reliever is going to perform. There are only a handful of relievers in MLB who I would more or less pencil in to be good year in, year out. And I don't believe the Brewers have any of them. That's why they should seriously consider selling on Thornburg, Smith, and Jeffress.

 

Going with your 2012 example, Axford had two very good years preceding his melt down that year. K-Rod the same. Relievers are fickle.

 

I disagree on Will Smith. I think he's solid, year in and year out. He's not a catch lightening in a bottle guy. He's legit IMO.

[patrickgpe]

This is hard, i think the price for some players is pretty high and nobody knows if Stearns is going to lower it closer to the deadline or steadfast. Im thinking DS will not back down so,

 

I'll predict the following are gone:

1) Lucroy

2) Torres

3) Boyer

[And That]

I disagree on Will Smith. I think he's solid, year in and year out. He's not a catch lightening in a bottle guy. He's legit IMO.

He has had two years and a few months of service as a reliever prior to this season. That's about a year in, and a year out. Not quite a pattern yet. He's been successful in that stint, though 150+ games pitched from 2014-2015 is a red flag for me. As is his decreased velocity and steep drop in K rate so far this season.

[MrTPlush]

I see two reasons why RP are fickle:

 

1. They only rely on one main pitch and likely one change of pace pitch. If their main pitch regresses and isn't dominant there goes that reliever. You see it all the time with the velocity dependent relievers. If Will Smith's slider regressed he wouldn't be very good.

 

2. The honeymoon phase that a lot of starters go through happens to relievers too sometimes. The difference is a reliever only pitches 70ish innings a year so it can last a full year or more.

 

With all due respect to Jeffress fans that guy should be traded sooner rather than later. I think the same with Smith although a bit less. Both of those guys could fizzle into average at best arms faster than you can blink.

[JackNicholson1974]

As the deadline nears, my prediction on who gets traded:

 

1. Boyer

2. That's it.

[dacrew101]

As the deadline nears, my prediction on who gets traded:

 

1. Boyer

2. That's it.

 

There will be pitchforks

[dacrew101]

I'm surprised not a lot of people are talking about Chris Carter being traded.

 

He's only got one arb year left, he's probably peak value which obviously isn't a whole lot but he should be traded too

[adambr2]

I'm surprised not a lot of people are talking about Chris Carter being traded.

 

He's only got one arb year left, he's probably peak value which obviously isn't a whole lot but he should be traded too

 

Just don't see Carter bringing back enough to make it worthwhile. He was available to every team for no trade compensation before the season, and he has been pretty much exactly what he was expected to be since then.

[Jose Cardenal1]

Carter has cooled off considerably. Numbers are now in line with career averages. If he picks it back up he is a guy that could get traded in August.

 

Heck if Garza could string together 3-4 quality starts he could be traded in August too. Baltimore needs rotation help and has a bad minor league system. Seems like a match to me.

[Roderick]

I'm surprised not a lot of people are talking about Chris Carter being traded.

 

He's only got one arb year left, he's probably peak value which obviously isn't a whole lot but he should be traded too

 

Actually Carter isn't a free agent until 2019. Not that the Brewers will necessarily want to pay the arby rate in 2018. I could see him on the block more if there was an obvious replacement, but the Brewers have no motivation to move him for nothing now.

[JohnBriggs12]

Carter has cooled off considerably. Numbers are now in line with career averages. If he picks it back up he is a guy that could get traded in August.

 

Heck if Garza could string together 3-4 quality starts he could be traded in August too. Baltimore needs rotation help and has a bad minor league system. Seems like a match to me.

 

Carter's OPS in June and July were both over .800 so don't get the "cooling off" comment. I've been pleasantly surprised by Carter. I can live with the strikeouts if a guy has enormous power and doesn't get into deep slumps where he does nothing. Carter's avoided Russell Branyan type slumps. His OPS by month: .922, .686, .848, .822. Considering lack of options and control, I'd hold on to him.

[pacopete4]

Carter is a great guy for us to having as we go through the rebuild. He's blocking no one and produces.