PREDICT which players off Brewers 25 man roster will be traded by August 1st

[A Swing and A Drive]

Let's play a little guessing game and see who can accurately predict the exact players off the Brewers current (July 3) 25 man roster that will be traded before the trade deadline.

 

Brewers 25 man roster (as of July 3)

 

Pitchers (13)

RHP Chase Anderson

RHP Jacob Barnes

RHP Michael Blazek

RHP Blaine Boyer

RHP Zach Davies

RHP Matt Garza

RHP Junior Guerra

RHP Jeremy Jeffress

RHP Jhan Martinez

RHP Jimmy Nelson

LHP Will Smith

RHP Tyler Thornburg

RHP Carlos Torres

 

Catchers (2)

C Jonathan Lucroy

C Martin Maldonado

 

Infielders (6)

1B Chris Carter

UT Jake Elmore

2B Scotter Gennett

3B Aaron Hill

UT Hernan Perez

SS Jonathan Villar

 

Outfielders (4)

OF Ryan Braun

OF Keon Broxton

OF Ramon Flores

OF Kirk Nieuwenhuis

 

Also I'll set a imaginary OVER/UNDER line of 4.5 on number of Brewers from 25 man traded before August 1st deadline.

Predict the Over or Under and list players you predict will be traded.

 

Here's my guesses:

 

UNDER

(4)

C Jonathan Lucroy

3B Aaron Hill

LHP Will Smith

RHP Matt Garza

[BrewCrewBlueDevil]

Maldonado, Hill, Boyer, Carter, LuCroy

[adambr2]

Lucroy, Hill, Smith, Guerra (4, under)

 

I'll also predict post deadline August trades of both Garza and Torres.

[MrTPlush]

-Lucroy

-Braun

-Hill

-Torres

 

Going out on a limb with Braun, but he is hitting so well and has been fairly healthy. Gut tells me a team coughs up enough prospects to make it happen. Left Carter off thinking they may prefer to move him in the offseason with more suitors for his services. Garza is a bit of a wild card. I think a move in August may be a better chance after extra starts.

[Lee16]

Will Smith

Matt Garza

Aaron Hill

 

The longer the Lucroy saga goes on, the more I think it turns into an offseason deal. I just don't see a contending team out there with that glaring of a need to pay the king's ransom it seems like we want for Luc.

[splitterpfj]

I think Lucroy goes to Houston for a package fronted by pitcher Francis Martes.

 

I think Aaron Hill is absolutely gone, but i have no idea yet which team will get him.

 

I'll be surprised if the Brewers don't trade someone out of their bullpen, but I'm not sure who goes. I'll guess Will Smith, but I don't think it's a certainty.

 

I'll say Braun stays, and is then traded in the winter to a team the Brewers discussed him with at-length right now.

 

The issue with Braun is, if you look at the teams he cannot block a trade to, the Dodgers and Giants make sense, and I suppose the Marlins could at least be a possibility. The other teams are either in rebuilding mode, or small market, etc.

 

The Marlins' farm system is a mess right now, so even if they decide to buy aggressively, I'm not sure they can get it done.

 

The issue with LA, San Francisco, and even Boston - all teams that could surely use Braun, is the luxury tax. I believe all three of those teams would be subject to penalty if they added Braun to their payroll, so Milwaukee would have to kick in some big time dollars, or take back a terrible contract, to get a deal done.

 

The luxury tax is the culprit, I think it keeps Braun right here until winter.

 

I've got Lucroy, Hill and Smith traded, so three guys.

[brewcrewdue80]

Over. Gone for me will be.

 

Lucroy

Braun

Scooter

Thornburg

Nieuhenwuis

Hill

Hernan Perez

Michael Blazek

13.5million

 

It's crazy over here all these trades! I believe there's just going to be a lot of throw-ins to pair a main piece for the trade. Teams will want Smith or Jeffress, but they instead get Thornburg or Blazek. Villar makes Scooter and Perez a Necessary move away from so Arcia can be called up. Nieuhenwuis has always been a trade away piece since acquisition.

 

I didn't list Carter because of the trade pieces removed, his place isn't replaceable at the moment. I also think, giving him a chance to reach 50HRs makes him more valuable for the offseason, and Stearns will want to have a trade piece to make a move this offseason. He can't sell them all now. 50HR Carter+Garza in the offseason would be my guess that happens.

[adambr2]

Will Smith

Matt Garza

Aaron Hill

 

The longer the Lucroy saga goes on, the more I think it turns into an offseason deal. I just don't see a contending team out there with that glaring of a need to pay the king's ransom it seems like we want for Luc.

 

I think Lucroy is definitely gone and I'm not concerned that the saga has dragged on this long. I would guess that the vast majority of deals come in the last week of July so it's not at all unusual for things to still be in the preliminary stages in early July when teams are still trying to get an idea of where they are at.

 

If we can't get an acceptable return this month I doubt we'll get it in the offseason when he'll be a 1 year rental and not part of any 2016 pennant race.

[pacopete4]

As much as you don't want to see people hurt, the Brewers could use a few "breaks" in this department to get more teams open to making a move.

[Austin Tatious]

Here's a blurb from Rosenthal mentioning a variety of issues.

 

http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/video?vid=717568579582

 

It's interesting he mentions young Brewers starters. Stearns has a high price for them as controllable pieces. I'm sure it comes down to really Jimmy Nelson. Zach Davies is so young I can't imagine trading him makes much sense for buyer or seller. Chase Anderson? I really think Rosenthal is referring to Nelson and that the Brewers have a high ask there.

 

I don't get the hate Nelson gets on this site. He's a solid number 3 pitcher unless you want to overthink things. Personally, I like supporting and advocating for my guys, not knocking them down, but that's just me. To each their own and I'm not going to tell other smart people how to think. He's a bulldog. If he gets moved, IMO he has significant value, either to create a haul in a package with a star hitter or by himself.

[Austin Tatious]

With Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman as the big prizes, the reliever market will be very interesting. The Yankees may flip Chapman for more than they bought him for. The Yankees need minor leaguer help. But, it's unclear if they sell but if they do, they want a haul.

 

So many teams need strong bullpen help. Oddly enough, the Brewers have done a great job building their relief corps. Both Jefress and Will Smith can have significant value. Jefress has been emerging for awhile if you look at a multi year arc. It's a fallacy just to throw Jeffress in with Axford or Henderson, just based on a profile, completely oblivious to his stuff and talent.

 

Even more so, Will Smith is a true talent that does not grow on trees. You have to value your own players. People cite to Kodi Medeiros, but if we are lucky he could be a Will Smith. Anyone arguing otherwise does not appreciate how good Will Smith is. If you just look at stats and are oblivious to performance, you may not realize what a treasure this guy can be as a trade asset.

 

There are teams desperate for relievers, and it's exacerbated because of the arms race. If team A gets Chapman and/or Miller, other teams will see bullpen help. The Cubs will make a play and have upside prospects. The Nats would need to react. Boston. There are a host of teams.

[LouisEly]

Over (5):

 

Hill

Torres

Nieuwenhuis

One of Garza/Carter

One of Lucroy/Smith/Thornburg/Jeffress

 

Hill and Torres for sure. KN's positional flexibility and LH bat will net cash or a bag of balls (didn't say he'd be traded for much, just said he'd be traded). Carter and Garza both have their warts, but with the lack of both power and starting pitching available along with Garza's reasonable contract and Carter's downright cheap salary someone will pony up a good return one of them. I think someone will have to wow DS to move one of those last four guys and I think one team will, I just don't know for which one.

[JohnBriggs12]

Hill

 

Torres

 

Jeffress

 

That's it. Luc and Braun stay put. There's a strong market for relievers. Brewers make a run at re - acquiring Hill this winter.

[LouisEly]

The issue with LA, San Francisco, and even Boston - all teams that could surely use Braun, is the luxury tax. I believe all three of those teams would be subject to penalty if they added Braun to their payroll, so Milwaukee would have to kick in some big time dollars, or take back a terrible contract, to get a deal done.

 

The luxury tax is the culprit, I think it keeps Braun right here until winter.

With Boston you are absolutely correct - everyone with a big salary there is an important piece to that team that they cannot give up. There are solutions with San Francisco as they have several unimportant pieces who are free agents after the season, not requiring a terrible contract to come back to MIL. SF could easily send Pagan, who is a free agent after the season, back to MIL to balance out that trade along with one of Javier Lopez or Sergio Romo (I'm 98% sure you can trade players on the DL prior to the trade deadline) if the Brewers include Torres. Gregor Blanco could be added if the Brewers include Nieuwenhuis. They could also send Peavey, who is also a free agent after the season, back to MIL; MIL would have to include Guerra, but then I don't know if SF has the trade chips to make that happen given how valuable Guerra is especially to MIL. Or MIL could include Chase Anderson. But Pagan + Lopez + Blanco + prospects for Braun + Nieuwenhuis would balance.

 

The Dodgers get a little trickier, but Brett Anderson could be sent to MIL to balance out the salaries. Other than that it might have to get creative; LAD could include Utley and Ellis but the Brewers would have to include Gennett/Maldonado. Howie Kendrick's contract isn't that bad, and if Braun is off the books next year the Brewers will definitely be able to afford it. But Anderson + Ellis + Van Slyke + prospects for Braun + Maldonado would balance.

[superfly]

I don't understand the desire to trade Will Smith, or even Jeffress for that matter. As relief pitchers at only 26 and 28, you could still very well include them on the next wave of Brewers, or at the very least they could very well be MORE valuable than they are now at that time. Elite bullpen help is hard to come by...I would really prefer we keep it together. I don't think either will be traded, and more likely signed to extensions. Thornburg, Smith, Jeffress, Barnes, and maybe Marinez I could see being attached to this team in a couple years.

 

Traded

 

Hill

Garza (they'll find someone to give them a bag of stale donuts I think)

Neuwenhuis

Boyer

 

No big trades, although I would not be opposed to seeing LuCroy go.

[QuevedosTongue]

Hill, Will Smith, and Lucroy.

 

They won't be able to give Garza away, they won't trade any other SPs, but I think someone will pony up for Lucroy. His bargain contract makes trading him post-July 31 difficult, so any team that wants him will have to make the move this month.

[billymac]

Over by double

 

Lucroy

Hill

Nieuhenwuis

Thornburg

Scooter

Boyer

Torres

Smith

 

Crew has some good bullpen pieces and they are in high demand for playoff run teams, if teams want to overpay for them, do it. Hoping Lucroy goes sooner than later, seeing Maldy take some balls off his body today makes me very nervous with Luc getting another injury right when we need him most. Braun dealt this winter.

[Austin Tatious]

I think Scooter is developing some value. He's having some good at bats against some lefties. He had a great at bat against the lefty today where he battled then hit it the other way for a base hit.

 

Guys like Villar and Gennett are doing better at the MLB level than some of our prize prospects are doing in the minors (Arcia, Diaz).

 

Speaking only for myself, I would hang on to Scooter and hope he adds more value. Further, i know we all want to make a bunch of trades, myself included, but I'd keep some powder dry for trades in future years, and Scooter comes to mind there.

[splitterpfj]

The issue with LA, San Francisco, and even Boston - all teams that could surely use Braun, is the luxury tax. I believe all three of those teams would be subject to penalty if they added Braun to their payroll, so Milwaukee would have to kick in some big time dollars, or take back a terrible contract, to get a deal done.

 

The luxury tax is the culprit, I think it keeps Braun right here until winter.

With Boston you are absolutely correct - everyone with a big salary there is an important piece to that team that they cannot give up. There are solutions with San Francisco as they have several unimportant pieces who are free agents after the season, not requiring a terrible contract to come back to MIL. SF could easily send Pagan, who is a free agent after the season, back to MIL to balance out that trade along with one of Javier Lopez or Sergio Romo (I'm 98% sure you can trade players on the DL prior to the trade deadline) if the Brewers include Torres. Gregor Blanco could be added if the Brewers include Nieuwenhuis. They could also send Peavey, who is also a free agent after the season, back to MIL; MIL would have to include Guerra, but then I don't know if SF has the trade chips to make that happen given how valuable Guerra is especially to MIL. Or MIL could include Chase Anderson. But Pagan + Lopez + Blanco + prospects for Braun + Nieuwenhuis would balance.

 

 

The Dodgers get a little trickier, but Brett Anderson could be sent to MIL to balance out the salaries. Other than that it might have to get creative; LAD could include Utley and Ellis but the Brewers would have to include Gennett/Maldonado. Howie Kendrick's contract isn't that bad, and if Braun is off the books next year the Brewers will definitely be able to afford it. But Anderson + Ellis + Van Slyke + prospects for Braun + Maldonado would balance.

 

Guys, read through LouisEly's explanation here. A Braun trade could look just plain strange - trading dollars, and lots of them, so you can trade players.

[trwi7]

Lucroy

Hill

Torres

Boyer

[Roderick]

I don't understand the desire to trade Will Smith, or even Jeffress for that matter. As relief pitchers at only 26 and 28, you could still very well include them on the next wave of Brewers, or at the very least they could very well be MORE valuable than they are now at that time. Elite bullpen help is hard to come by...I would really prefer we keep it together. I don't think either will be traded, and more likely signed to extensions. Thornburg, Smith, Jeffress, Barnes, and maybe Marinez I could see being attached to this team in a couple years.

 

I don't think Smith, who turns 27 in less than a week, will be around for when we turn it around. He will be 2nd year of arby next year and the Brewers aren't competing next year either. I am not giving him away, but I am not turning down a fair deal. And you would get more for him now then in the offseason. That said, I hope the Brewers keep at least two of Thornburg, Jeffress, and Smith for next year.

[JohnBriggs12]

I don't understand the desire to trade Will Smith, or even Jeffress for that matter. As relief pitchers at only 26 and 28, you could still very well include them on the next wave of Brewers, or at the very least they could very well be MORE valuable than they are now at that time. Elite bullpen help is hard to come by...I would really prefer we keep it together. I don't think either will be traded, and more likely signed to extensions. Thornburg, Smith, Jeffress, Barnes, and maybe Marinez I could see being attached to this team in a couple years.

 

Traded

 

Hill

Garza (they'll find someone to give them a bag of stale donuts I think)

Neuwenhuis

Boyer

 

No big trades, although I would not be opposed to seeing LuCroy go.

 

Relievers rarely stay at or near their peaks for more than 2-3 years and the market for quality relievers is extremely hot this year. So of all the trade-able Brewers, a team is more likely to significantly overpay for a Jeffress or a Smith than another Brewer. Even a journeyman like Torres could bring back a return of at least some value. That's why those guys are in play.

[QuevedosTongue]

I don't understand the desire to trade Will Smith, or even Jeffress for that matter. As relief pitchers at only 26 and 28, you could still very well include them on the next wave of Brewers, or at the very least they could very well be MORE valuable than they are now at that time. Elite bullpen help is hard to come by...I would really prefer we keep it together. I don't think either will be traded, and more likely signed to extensions. Thornburg, Smith, Jeffress, Barnes, and maybe Marinez I could see being attached to this team in a couple years.

 

Frankly, I've seen the Brewers (and other teams) invest way too much in a RPs career season and end up giving a guy a bad contract because of it. Or RPs that have been very good suddenly flame out. I'm not against keeping them, as long as it's through the arbitration process or 1 year deals. Unless a reliever is elite there just doesn't seem to be a reason to give them more than that. And the Brewers bullpen, while pretty good, doesn't have a guy I would call elite.

[logan82]

Relievers are a dime a dozen. Smith goes down. Jeffress takes over. We have had a revolving door of closers over the last decade and all were pretty good.

[DHonks]

I think 4:

Hill

Boyer

Marinez

Torres