Just Say "NO" Jack!

[colbyjack]

My "curse" shot had more to do with them sucking so much, as I agree they have some decent success developing pitchers. However, my point is that if they were so good developing players, they would be a lot better than what they are.

 

As for Eveland, he pretty much dominated every level he pitched at in the minors, and was amazingly consistent. I know I'm not the only one that didn't expect him to have so many growing pains making the adjustment to pro ball, although I do contend that I liked what I saw from him during several appearances a year ago (and he has had flashed during his three starts this year). Just because a player struggles when they're first called up doesn't necessarily mean they were rushed.

 

As for your last point, hindsight is a very powerful tool, especially when it comes to the draft. It's amazing how many early draft picks never pan out, as no team is consistently successful with their first-round picks. Even the A's, Twins and Braves, three teams widely considered as three of the best drafting teams, have had their fair share of duds in recent years.

 

I still contend that the draft is not a crap-shoot, largely because of the time and money invested into scouting (not to mention the fact that expectations regarding the draft are way too high in all sports, including football), but there certainly are a ton of wild-cards that make the end results astonishingly unpredictable.

[Never Outhustled]

I also question the qualitative logic of your point. Show me the MLB organization that has developed a surefire strategy, or even a repeatable good strategy, for avoiding injuries to pitchers in their late teens and early 20s.

 

This is true, what I'm saying is completely theory and is mostly unproven. The Brewers did not have a worthwhile plan in place for avoiding injury untill Doug Melvins 2nd year here when Melvin completely overhauled all aspects of the organizations training and medical staff. The oldest players who fall under this new plan are only 3rd year pros. Whoever, their durability has been remarkable. These players are the same age as the college pitchers in this year draft. Over the next 5 years, compare the health of the Brewers propsects to this year college draft class. I'd be willing to bet big money the Brewers prospects will mostly remain healthy, and a few 1st round college pitchers go under the knife within a year from now, just like they do every year.The Brewers plan will be the one other teams will begin to copy in 10 years. The Brewers will be miles ahead of the game.

[DHonks]

Injuries often times can be flukes. A twinge in the elbow can be the result of one pitch. A pain in the shoulder can be one pitch (like Sheets) or a million pitches.

 

When a person walks along, they can take a funny step on the sidewalk, and severely roll an ankle. I had a roommate in college who hurt himself on my birthday, on the way to a restaurant to celebrate. So on my 21st bday, I had 1 beer, and the beverage I had as midnight passed was a frosty from Wendy's, as I was tired of waiting in the ER and needed a tasty treat to celebrate my bday (we made him go to the ER...he just wanted to put his foot up and for us to give him a bottle of cheap wine).

My point is that some injuries truly are preventable, some injuries are not. I've had one serious injury in my entire life of sports. Yet I'm avg build (at best), 5'11" (6' in golf spikes), and ALWAYS was the least flexible kid on my teams going back to when I was 5 years old. Yet the only injury I've had that lasted more than 1 day was when I dislocated my left shoulder trying to kill a moth (why I now bat lefty in whiffleball). I could have had a whole team of experts stretching me each day, following me around, and monitoring my progress. Yet there's no way anybody could have anticipated my friend would have chronic ankle problems because of that one night, and there's no way someone could have told me how badly that moth would make me hurt.

 

While I like high school arms, my only concern with them is that bodies change. When I was 17/18, I was 5'10" and about 180. When I was 22 I was 5'11" and 200. That may not sound like much, but that included my shoulders broadening tons. My body shape completely changed in those 4 years, as I went from being called skinny/scrawny to being told I looked like I played fullback, offensive line, or linebacker. So my concern with all pitchers (HS and college) is that between 17 and 22, a lot can change.

[bjkrautk]

According to some teams he wasn't, but according to others he was. I know you keep bringing this point up, but really we only know that based on the reports from Baseball America. If the Brewers had stuck to who the best players available were at the time (according to others), Prince Fielder never would have been the team's selection in 2002 based on the reports. In fact, that is why so many people (including myself up until I got to see him perform at the pre-draft workout) were upset with the Fielder pick at the time.

 

I was debating whether or not to respond to this...looks like I will. I don't really remember bringing the point up at any other time in the past 6+ months, so I don't think I'm harping on the point. Second, based on the results up to this point, it certainly seems as though the people who rated Bailey ahead of Rogers got it right, and our scouting staff got it wrong. (I'm not about to dig up the info, but I believe that BA, Jonathan Mayo at mlb.com, and probably the people over at T1 all predicted Bailey to go ahead of Mark Rogers.)

 

While I can understand your comparison to Fielder on some level, it's not as though there was another first baseman under consideration. (If memory serves, the player most people here wanted was the 3b Moore, who didn't exactly thrive in Detroit.) It should be easier to definitively rank players at the same position than it is to make cross-positional rankings. Moreover, Prince was projected as a top-10 pick based on talent, so it's not like he was a "reach" where he was picked (which is less of a consideration in MLB, where you can't trade picks as we all know). Also, considering that a member of the front office staff (Bill Lajoie) threatened to resign if Fielder wasn't the pick (I vaguely recall this from Dean Taylor after the draft), I'm not sure that Jack Z had the complete autonomy back then that he does now.

 

 

My larger point, however, is that I think an organization needs to do this sort of post-mortem evaluation when there is an apparent discrepancy between what your organization is seeing and what others are saying (especially disinterested parties). If a team has a bit of an evaluational "blind spot," this is one of the best ways to filter it out. And, if you look at this team's history (recent or otherwise) with HS pitchers in the first round, it hasn't been good.

[colbyjack]

I wasn't trying to call you out bjkrautk, so I apologize if my tone sounded as though I was. Maybe I'm confusing you for someone else, but I thought it was you who has brought up the fact that places like BA and others had Bailey ranked ahead of Rogers (and for the record, it really doesn't matter where places like BA, PG and yours truly have players ranked).

 

And I understand your point. I was just pointing out that BA and a few other places reported that it wasn't just the Brewers that had Rogers rated ahead of Bailey leading up to the draft. We learned of this in a draft chat I believe, that noted the Brewers were scouting Mark Rogers very hard, and weren't the only team considering taking him ahead of Bailey.

 

My point about Fielder had nothing to do with him being a 1B (the team at the time reportedly wanted a prep hitter, regardless of position, if Loewen, Gruler & Greinke weren't available), just that there were a lot of players ranked ahead of him, and Fielder actually wasn't even close to being ranked in the top 10 overall players for 2002 (I think he was in the 20s or 30s at the time). If Fielder would have struggled and/or failed as a prospect it would have been extremely easy for us to question the Brewers choice of Fielder since he wasn't rated by BA and others as a top 10 overall prospect. That is why I compared him to the Rogers/Bailey choice.

 

Again, I agree they should learn from their choices. Not so much worrying about where Baseball America and others have players ranked, but trying to learn from what works for them and what doesn't.