Zach Davies' recent run

[homer]

His game log and totals since the beginning of May:

 

http://i.imgur.com/jX4lwOw.png

 

I love the run he's on, but the high LOB% and super low BABIP makes me think he's pitching over his head. Also the HR rate is kind of high. Obviously, FIP and xFIP show that. HOWEVER, FIP and XFIP show he's still really good even if he's been a bit lucky over this stretch. Only 23 years old....exciting young pitcher to say the least.

[Patrick425]

Yes, impressive...especially for a 15 year old!

[madbad2000]

I've enjoyed following Davies. I am currently living in Oriole land and they could really use someone like him on that staff. It's amazing the O's are still in first with the starting staff they have run out there. The talk has been about the loss of trading Eduardo Rodriguez for Andrew Miller, but if Davies keeps it up the move to grab Parra might hurt them more long term than grabbing Miller in a playoff run.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

This is a great table.

 

The low BABIP does scare me a bit, but I wonder about exit velocity data too. I wouldn't know where to find it, but presumably Statcast would allow us to take a close look at how much of the low BABIP is luck and how much is the result of inducing weak contact.

 

The K's are my favorite part about Davies' stretch. I love watching Brewer pitchers miss bats.

[Pugger]

Yes, impressive...especially for a 15 year old!

 

I remember the first time I saw him in the dugout. BA and Rock were talking about this great new pitcher and I asked my husband why did they kept showing us the bat boy?

[jerichoholicninja]

And how long before the posters show up saying he's too short and doesn't throw hard enough to be successful? Ya, he's probably pitching over his head right now but it gets annoying when people knock him only because of his size and "lack of velocity." Keep the ball down, change speed, and hit the corners. Do that and all that other stuff is pretty much irrelevant.

[MrTPlush]

Nice to see some success and I hope it continues. Hard to get excited though seeing so many pitchers start their MLB careers out nicely just to fizzle out into back of the rotation starters.

[brewmann04]

Buck said this when he was traded to us.

[1992casey]

And how long before the posters show up saying he's too short and doesn't throw hard enough to be successful?

 

I would think that ship has sailed. At this point, I'd be wondering about opponents "figuring him out" or thinking about the kinds of numbers that homer brought up.

[JohnBriggs12]

His game log and totals since the beginning of May:

 

http://i.imgur.com/jX4lwOw.png

 

I love the run he's on, but the high LOB% and super low BABIP makes me think he's pitching over his head. Also the HR rate is kind of high. Obviously, FIP and xFIP show that. HOWEVER, FIP and XFIP show he's still really good even if he's been a bit lucky over this stretch. Only 23 years old....exciting young pitcher to say the least.

 

What makes you think he's on a run? His overall numbers this year are almost identical to his 6 starts last year. He's a solid middle of the rotation piece. Is he going to be a sub 3 ERA guy over a full season? Not likely but what's not to like about a controllable young arm who posts consistent ERA around 3.70? Davies is a tough cookie with a great makeup and should be a part of this team for the next 4-5 years minimum.

[homer]

 

What makes you think he's on a run? His overall numbers this year are almost identical to his 6 starts last year. He's a solid middle of the rotation piece. Is he going to be a sub 3 ERA guy over a full season? Not likely but what's not to like about a controllable young arm who posts consistent ERA around 3.70? Davies is a tough cookie with a great makeup and should be a part of this team for the next 4-5 years minimum.

 

 

You answered your own question. You say he's not going to be a sub 3 ERA guy and that's exactly what he's been the last 6 weeks. His numbers will come back to reality eventually. The good news (and I thought I was clear about this) is that reality is still really good.

[jerichoholicninja]

 

What makes you think he's on a run? His overall numbers this year are almost identical to his 6 starts last year. He's a solid middle of the rotation piece. Is he going to be a sub 3 ERA guy over a full season? Not likely but what's not to like about a controllable young arm who posts consistent ERA around 3.70? Davies is a tough cookie with a great makeup and should be a part of this team for the next 4-5 years minimum.

 

 

You answered your own question. You say he's not going to be a sub 3 ERA guy and that's exactly what he's been the last 6 weeks. His numbers will come back to reality eventually. The good news (and I thought I was clear about this) is that reality is still really good.

 

I agree with you but we really have no idea what Zach's "reality" is. He hasn't even pitched the equivalent of a full season yet.

[homer]

True. I should have said "reality is potentially really good".

[Thurston Fluff]

Every pitcher has stretches where they pitch over their heads. Every pitcher has stretches where they pitch well below their ability. The key is to maximize the good runs and limit the bad ones. The pitchers who can do that stick around. This is just my opinion but I always felt the pitchers who could throw the ball where they want to tend to do that better than ones who have to rely on great stuff but less control. That is why I am fairly confident Davies can be a solid starter for the long haul.

[adambr2]

I agree that Davies is a really nice middle to lower rotation piece. The issue with our rotation and what will probably keep us in a rebuilding stage for the next couple years, is the fact that our rotation is nothing but middle to lower rotation pieces from 1 to 5.

 

Probably the biggest disappointment of 2016 so far is how far Peralta and Jungmann fell off from what we hoped they could be. Davies has been exactly what we could have hoped he would be.

[Roderick]

Probably the biggest disappointment of 2016 so far is how far Peralta and Jungmann fell off from what we hoped they could be.

 

Without Guerra coming up when Jungmann was being destroyed and Davies turning it around in May, any type of competent season would have started circling the toilet by the middle of May, and been totally flushed by the end of May.

[MoreTrife]

Probably the biggest disappointment of 2016 so far is how far Peralta and Jungmann fell off from what we hoped they could be. Davies has been exactly what we could have hoped he would be.

 

Throw in Jorge Lopez in triple a.

[pacopete4]

Probably the biggest disappointment of 2016 so far is how far Peralta and Jungmann fell off from what we hoped they could be. Davies has been exactly what we could have hoped he would be.

 

Throw in Jorge Lopez in triple a.

 

 

Never understood the Lopez love. Other than one outlier year in AA he's been pretty meh, for the organization.

[ZBTMP]

 

Never understood the Lopez love. Other than one outlier year in AA he's been pretty meh, for the organization.

 

Because that outlier year contained a corresponding jump in velocity and strikeout rate? I interpreted that as signs of development. Unfortunately, his command has fallen off a cliff so far this season.

[Austin Tatious]

I agree with ZB. I really was hoping that Lopez had turned a corner. He had been a young guy who was developing. It seemed like it was coming together for him. That's why he moved up to a top 3 prospect on some rankings for the system.

 

As for Davies, I like him. I like his pace, craftiness, and I feel like he's a competitive kid. It's fair to be cautious because young pitchers have to deal with teams adjusting to him as they see him again and again. I feel good about him because he knows how to pitch. I think he can be a solid back end of the rotation guy (4-5 spots). Anything above that is gravy.

 

The organization lacks #1 and #2 starters. That's the issue. Maybe we can get a #2 starter prospect for Luc. Even if that happens, we need more. I like Diplan. Not sure where Ponce is with his arm but I have liked him. Maybe Kirby can emerge when he comes back next year. Can Lopez return to his positive trend line? We still need more.

[clancyphile]

Josh Hader, Jorge Ortega, Brent Suter, Jon Perrin, Marcos Diplan and Freddy Peralta are, IMO starter prospects that are in the #1/#2 starter range based on their overall 2015/2016 numbers. Suter and Ortega have had some rough patches this year, but overall, both seem to be pitching like they did in 2015 more often than not. In the case of Suter, but I worry that the Brewers aren't giving him the sustained chance to be a starter - instead it's a start here, then an inning or two in the middle of a game there, then closing a game, then four innings after a rain delay.

 

Diplan and Peralta both look to have strong potential but it's a long way from Low-A to the majors.

[Pugger]

I didn't see or hear the game from Tuesday. Did LA knock Zach around?

[1992casey]

He gave up three home runs. That can unravel things pretty easily.

[homer]

Updated stats. Not shown is that Zach has among the lowest exit velocities on batted balls in the majors (i.e. weak contact). Might explain his low BABIP.

 

http://i.imgur.com/DgmVwov.png

[tmwiese55]

Updated stats. Not shown is that Zach has among the lowest exit velocities on batted balls in the majors (i.e. weak contact). Might explain his low BABIP.

 

http://i.imgur.com/DgmVwov.png

 

Which passes the eye test too. Gets a high amount of dribblers back to himself too. That comeback pitch on the low outside corner to righties is such a good pitch, was just thinking last night how it looks like Greg Maddux, who also got weak contacts and dribblers back to himself a lot.