Lucroy Trades/Proposals (part 3)

[Austin Tatious]

Alex Bregman, Ian Happ, Dansby Swanson, and Andrew Benintendi were college bats taken last year and were rolling in Double A by the middle of the second year. That was the track Ryan Braun followed. When you take a college bat high, that's a particular type of player.

 

You aren't talking about a high school arm where you know there are risks and developmental challenges. You take the safe pick in Ray, and you're expecting a good trajectory and for him to be in Milwaukee putting up numbers by mid-2018. I wouldn't minimize expectations. You took a kid fifth overall as a college bat with a lower risk profile than if you took a shot at, say, a high school arm. We all know that the high school arm can have a number of risks, including injury or arm troubles, poor development, bad makeup, etc.

 

You take a college bat, knowing you don't have the same risk profile. That's the deal. I'd say the same thing about Nick Senzil. Ray seems like a great kid. That's the expectation. I wouldn't start the excuse train out of fear. The organization took him high, didn't take risks elsewhere, now they own it. Be confident in the kid, and let's go.

[billymac]

When the Brewers told Wilkins that he was promoted to the MLB team, they mentioned in the story that David Stearns was in the clubhouse when it happened yesterday. Sky Sox just happened to be playing the Oklahoma Dodgers tonight with Jose De Leon pitching...hopefully some last minute scouting by Stearns for a trade with the Dodgers of either Lucroy or Braun. De Leon's gone 6ip so far with 9K, 3h, 1BB and 2ER with 78 pitches.

 

Edit, one of those hits happen to have been a 2R HR by Arcia

[brewmann04]

I think DS better make sure his cell phone is charged

[jerichoholicninja]

When the Brewers told Wilkins that he was promoted to the MLB team, they mentioned in the story that David Stearns was in the clubhouse when it happened yesterday. Sky Sox just happened to be playing the Oklahoma Dodgers tonight with Jose De Leon pitching...hopefully some last minute scouting by Stearns for a trade with the Dodgers of either Lucroy or Braun. De Leon's gone 6ip so far with 9K, 3h, 1BB and 2ER with 78 pitches.

 

Edit, one of those hits happen to have been a 2R HR by Arcia

 

That's the kind of conspiracy thinking I like to see. I doubt there is any truth to it but what the hell else would Stearns be doing in Oklahoma City?

[Noche]

When the Brewers told Wilkins that he was promoted to the MLB team, they mentioned in the story that David Stearns was in the clubhouse when it happened yesterday. Sky Sox just happened to be playing the Oklahoma Dodgers tonight with Jose De Leon pitching...hopefully some last minute scouting by Stearns for a trade with the Dodgers of either Lucroy or Braun. De Leon's gone 6ip so far with 9K, 3h, 1BB and 2ER with 78 pitches.

 

Edit, one of those hits happen to have been a 2R HR by Arcia

 

That's the kind of conspiracy thinking I like to see. I doubt there is any truth to it but what the hell else would Stearns be doing in Oklahoma City?

 

Stearns has mentioned that he takes routine trips to all the affiliates. This could be that or something more.

[MrTPlush]

When the Brewers told Wilkins that he was promoted to the MLB team, they mentioned in the story that David Stearns was in the clubhouse when it happened yesterday. Sky Sox just happened to be playing the Oklahoma Dodgers tonight with Jose De Leon pitching...hopefully some last minute scouting by Stearns for a trade with the Dodgers of either Lucroy or Braun. De Leon's gone 6ip so far with 9K, 3h, 1BB and 2ER with 78 pitches.

 

Edit, one of those hits happen to have been a 2R HR by Arcia

 

That's the kind of conspiracy thinking I like to see. I doubt there is any truth to it but what the hell else would Stearns be doing in Oklahoma City?

 

Stearns has mentioned that he takes routine trips to all the affiliates. This could be that or something more.

 

I'm sure he was there for a reason more than just a typical visit. Dodgers are a good trade partner.

[DougJonesChangeUp]

I could see the Dodgers going for it and asking for Lucroy and Nelson in a package deal. They'd have to back up the truck though.

[brewmann04]

We should be getting quality arms back

[A Swing and A Drive]

Brewers-Dodgers trade proposal

 

Brewers get:

RHP Jose De Leon http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=592254#/career/R/pitching/2016/ALL

1B Cody Bellinger http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=592254#/career/R/pitching/2016/ALL

RHP Brock Stewart http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=592254#/career/R/pitching/2016/ALL

RHP Walker Buehler http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=621111#/career/R/pitching/2016/ALL

C Austin Barnes http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=605131#/career/R/hitting/2016/ALL

 

Dodgers get:

C Jonathan Lucroy

RHP Jimmy Nelson

 

Makes sense for both clubs IMHO.

[splitterpfj]

Swing, I think you're one player long. I think you have to take out one of the pitchers behind De Leon.

[reillymcshane]

Brewers-Dodgers trade proposal

 

Brewers get:

RHP Jose De Leon http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=592254#/career/R/pitching/2016/ALL

1B Cody Bellinger http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=592254#/career/R/pitching/2016/ALL

RHP Brock Stewart http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=592254#/career/R/pitching/2016/ALL

RHP Walker Buehler http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=621111#/career/R/pitching/2016/ALL

C Austin Barnes http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=605131#/career/R/hitting/2016/ALL

 

Dodgers get:

C Jonathan Lucroy

RHP Jimmy Nelson

 

Makes sense for both clubs IMHO.

 

I think you are on the right track with something like this (assuming Milwaukee is okay parting with Nelson as well as Luc).

 

I have heard that the Dodgers are not as enamored with De Leon as some people - so perhaps he is gettable. But the guy keeps producing - and in the upper minors, which is encouraging - so you got to like him. Otherwise, I like Grant Holmes a lot. He's further away, but I think he can be pretty special. It'll just take a couple of more years.

[MilwaukeeBeers]

Man if I'm dealing with Dodgers I'd have my eye on Alvarez as a very strong secondary piece. Honestly I may take him over JDL...

[Jose Cardenal1]

Another way to water down the return from the Dodgers would be to swap out Walker Buehler (#8 prospect) for Josh Sborz (#18) or Imani Abdullah (#22). Considering Buehler is still recovering from TJ surgery I think I might prefer that anyway.

 

My ideal would be a return of:

 

Deleon, Holmes, Bellinger & Barnes and then hope you can also squeeze Sborz or Abdullah out of them too by including a reliever from the Brewers.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Man if I'm dealing with Dodgers I'd have my eye on Alvarez as a very strong secondary piece. Honestly I may take him over JDL...

 

 

I'm pretty certain the Dodgers value Alvarez much higher than De Leon as well and are not likely to trade him.

[UMBrewer]

Brewers-Dodgers trade proposal

 

Brewers get:

RHP Jose De Leon http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=592254#/career/R/pitching/2016/ALL

1B Cody Bellinger http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=592254#/career/R/pitching/2016/ALL

RHP Brock Stewart http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=592254#/career/R/pitching/2016/ALL

RHP Walker Buehler http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=621111#/career/R/pitching/2016/ALL

C Austin Barnes http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=605131#/career/R/hitting/2016/ALL

 

Dodgers get:

C Jonathan Lucroy

RHP Jimmy Nelson

 

Makes sense for both clubs IMHO.

 

I think you are on the right track with something like this (assuming Milwaukee is okay parting with Nelson as well as Luc).

 

I have heard that the Dodgers are not as enamored with De Leon as some people - so perhaps he is gettable. But the guy keeps producing - and in the upper minors, which is encouraging - so you got to like him. Otherwise, I like Grant Holmes a lot. He's further away, but I think he can be pretty special. It'll just take a couple of more years.

 

I would trade out Stewart/Buehler for Alex Verdugo and attempt the 4 for 2 trade straight up. Barnes would instantly hop in front of Nottingham for "Catcher" of the future title, you get a solid middle of the rotation Starting pitcher, and solid pieces in Belinger and Verdugo as well. If they pulled off a deal like this the Brewers AA affiliate might be more fun to go and see this year than the MLB product.

[A Swing and A Drive]

I like Buehler alone better than Verdugo, even factoring in Walkers TJ Surgery recovery.

If we are including Jimmy Nelson in a trade, I'd like to get 3 arms back in the deal, rather than just one.

 

I'm also really high on Brock Stewart, as a fresh arm with a #2-3 ceiling and nearly MLB ready.

 

Another arm in their system that would be a nice add-in piece would be RHP Chase De Jong.

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=608328#/career/R/pitching/2016/ALL

[SRB]

I'm also really high on Brock Stewart, as a fresh arm with a #2-3 ceiling and nearly MLB ready.

 

FWIW, I believe Stewart was the SP for the game that Stearns was reportedly in Oklahoma for.

 

His combined line in the minors this season: 92.0 IP, 1.96 ERA, 0.837 WHIP, 10.3 K/9, 1.5 BB/9

[reillymcshane]

I know why people wouldn't want Walker Buehler - coming off TJ and so forth - but in some ways, that's exactly why you get him now. Yes, it's a risk, but Bueller was a top pick 5 five pick coming into the season before the injury. That's the kind of talent we haven't been able to draft for a decade (at least until this year).

 

As I said, yes it's a risk, but I'm okay rolling the dice for a potential front end of the rotation guy. Obviously, you'd have to feel like he's coming along okay from the surgery.

 

The other thing about a guy having TJ surgery is that players mostly come back from it (I stress mostly, because some never recover - the actual success rate is around 90%). And once you've had TJ, guys usually don't have the same issue for some time (I'm going by memory, but I think guys who have had 2 TJs usually last between 6-9 years between the two. If anyone knows the exact info, feel free to provide.). Just knowing it won't (usually) crop up again soon is nice to know.

 

Buehler is a college guy, so he could potentially be in the majors in a reasonable amount of time. It would mostly be about getting him back on schedule, building arm strength, etc.

 

As I said, he's a risk, but I'd love the team to take a risk for a guy like him.

[MrTPlush]

Man if I'm dealing with Dodgers I'd have my eye on Alvarez as a very strong secondary piece. Honestly I may take him over JDL...

 

Yah Alvarez is legit. Probably would have to take him as the main piece if they would even be willing to deal him.

[Eye Black]

With the Red Sox starting to look like one of the most logical landing spots for Lucroy, one player that would be a very interesting piece in return is RHP Michael Kopech. The 20-year old returned to the mound this week (LINK w/ VIDEO) and was reportedly throwing over 100-mph and allegedly hit 103-mph (per Boston Globe LINK).

 

For those not familiar with Kopech, he was a 2014 first round pick of the Red Sox (#33 overall) out of high school. Just turned 20 years old at the beginning of the season, Kopech has had some set backs in his career that evoke whispers of the dreaded "makeup issues" tag including a 50-game suspension for a banned stimulant (amphetamine use), and an injury to his pitching hand as a result of a fight with a teammate. Despite these negatives surrounding Kopech, he appears to possess the physical talent to become an elite front of the rotation type of pitcher.

 

I for one would be intrigued enough to take a chance on Kopech, not necessarily as a "center-piece", but as a return trade piece. It would fall into the "high risk, high reward" category, but I think the risk just might be worth it in this case.

[reillymcshane]

Regarding Lucroy and the Red Sox. It looks like the Red Sox are unlikely to deal Moncada (too high of an upside), Benintendi (close to the majors - may help the big league club this year) or Espinoza (great upside in an area of great need).

 

That leaves Rafael Devers as the most likely of Boston's top 4 prospects to be dealt at this year's deadline (he came in at #41 on BA's midseason prospect list, and #19 on Baseball Prospectus' midseason list). The Sox love his bat, but he did start pretty 'meh' this year (but pick up lately), and there seem to be some questions as to if he'll be able to stay at 3B longterm (the worry is that Devers, who is only 19, will get bigger and need to move to 1B if he loses some range/quickness).

 

Finally, Moncada is the crown jewel of the Sox system, but the his future is likely at 3B due to Pedroia locked in at 2B through 2021.

 

Thus, if the Sox really want Luc, the guy that Boston will want to headline a trade is probably Devers. Maybe adding someone like Kopech - as Eye Black noted below - would be enough to get a deal done (I'm sure the team would try and squeeze out another nugget or two in any deal). Kopech's character issues have to obviously be considered. He recently came in at #94 of BA's midseason Top 100. Seems like a high risk, high reward kind of guy.

 

We still have a few weeks left before the deadline, but I'm not sure how many teams really would want to trade for Lucroy (considering how much it will cost). LA would love to have Luc, but the guy they have (Grandal) is actually okay (not great, but not bad). Washington - another team we have talked about as a trade partner - as Ramos, who is playing great. A bunch of teams probably don't have the young talent we'd want (Detroit, Seattle, Mets, White Sox).

 

That leaves Texas, Houston, Cleveland and Boston. Perhaps LA as well. Texas probably wants to get pitching, so Luc might be a luxury at this point. It's not in Cleveland's nature to deal high level prospects, so that may be a dead end. I think that makes Houston and Boston as the most likely landing spots at this time. Obviously, things can happen in the next few weeks, but Luc would be perfect in either Boston or Houston (or any team for that matter). The thing is Dombrowski is not the kind of guy brought in to sit on his hands. He'll make moves. We've got open lines of communication with Boston going, so I'm thinking the likely landing spot in Bean Town. That's assuming we like a return centered around Devers, or we can get the Sox to give up a higher ranked guy.

 

I think it's going to be a fascinating couple of weeks.

[Austin Tatious]

I think Reilly is correct vis a vis Boston. I was listening to Boston radio and the hosts essentially said the same thing, that Devers is their "top" prospect they are willing to deal. Benintendi wasn't even considered. One of the talking heads was talking up Chavis as a top 3b prospect anyway.

 

The context, though, was trying to get a good pitcher. Lucroy was not on their radar.

 

They are not happy with LF either.

 

I'd love to listen in on the discussions between the ball clubs.

[Austin Tatious]

Here is a good article on Boston's trade ideas and some quotes from Dombrowski on working to get Aaron Hill.

 

http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/rob-bradford/2016/07/08/dave-dombrowski-says-trade-talk-picking-so-le

[reillymcshane]

Here is a good article on Boston's trade ideas and some quotes from Dombrowski on working to get Aaron Hill.

 

http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/rob-bradford/2016/07/08/dave-dombrowski-says-trade-talk-picking-so-le

Hey, that's pretty much what I said - and I didn't read the article before I wrote my post.

 

Still, it's not that hard to figure out. Things I've read other places seem to have gotten hold of the same narrative.

 

I'm not really hyped about trading Nelson, but he would be a great fit in Boston (along with Lucroy). That might bring back a monster package, but it would really put a dent in our own rotation. Tough to do, but I guess it's something to consider.

[Eye Black]

I would agree that Rafael Devers appears to be the most likely center-piece for a deal with the Red Sox. One interesting note on Devers is that according to the writers at SoxProspects.com Devers changed his approach and eliminated his pre-pitch bat movement and motion beginning on May 28th this year. He now holds the bat still prior to each pitch. Since the adjustment he has batted over .350 with an OBP of nearly .400.

 

Trading for Devers and Kopech would be taking on a lot of risk, but it would also provide the potential upside of adding future all-star caliber difference makers to the organization.