Lucroy Trades/Proposals (part 3)

[Outlander]

Assuming that Gallo is the only big piece we get when trading with Texas, I would much rather take Brinson + Tate/Ortiz. I would not be upset with Gallo but he really is a major, major risk. Still would rather trade with LAD/Boston

I agree that Gallo is a risk, but his upside - that of a 35-40 HR guy - is pretty tantalizing. A power hitter like Gallo is someone this system really lacks, so it would be nice to have. Plus it would just be cool to watch the guy - you just never know when one would go out of the park.

 

What team are you watching? 6 weeks prior to opening day, the Brewers had not one but two 35-40 HR guys, Davis and Carter. They traded Davis, but still have Carter, who's controllable through 2018 and is exactly the same kind of hitter.

Team wasn't mentioned, system was. The system currently is lacking power and it is not exactly a controversial statement.

[JohnBriggs12]

How about Mariners as trade partners? They could surely use an upgrade at catcher and are also in need of a starter. Package Lucroy and Garza (Brewers pay half of his remaining salary) and see if you can get Tyler O'Neill, Dylan Unsworth and Mike Zunino back. O'Neill's tearing up Southern League and just turned 21. Unsworth was off to great start at AA but is now on the DL and Zunino is former very highly regarded catching prospect who Brewers could give a decent look at.

[A Swing and A Drive]

How about Mariners as trade partners? They could surely use an upgrade at catcher and are also in need of a starter. Package Lucroy and Garza (Brewers pay half of his remaining salary) and see if you can get Tyler O'Neill, Dylan Unsworth and Mike Zunino back. O'Neill's tearing up Southern League and just turned 21. Unsworth was off to great start at AA but is now on the DL and Zunino is former very highly regarded catching prospect who Brewers could give a decent look at.

 

Personally, I wouldn't be too happy with this return for Lucroy. O'Neil has some nice power but I'd prefer a trade headliner with a higher ceiling. Unsworth is a back end MLB starter at best or likely bullpen arm. Zunino has had a nice rebound at AAA this year, but he has limited years of team control because of his MLB service time. Maybe if RHP Nick Niedert was in place of Usworth and a 4th lottery ticket was added, it would be closer to an acceptable return.

 

I think (hope?) Sterns can do better.

[nate82]

I wonder if a Lucroy and Nelson to the Red Sox for Espinoza/Benintendi, Kopech, Chavis, Ball or Ockimey.

 

Basically it breaks down to Lucroy brings in Espinoza/Benintendi and Chavis while Nelson brings in Kopech and Ball or Ockimey. Nelson is a solid #3 pitcher who can be put in the Red Sox rotation now and for the next few years cheaply. If the Brewers put Nelson on the market right now he is going to command at least 1 if not 2 of a teams top 10 prospects plus another in the 15-20 range. The market is completely bare of pitching this trading deadline that players like Nelson will have an extreme price tag which is more than they are actually worth. Will a team pay for this maybe maybe not it all depends on how desperate a team gets. Since Nelson is controllable for beyond this season he fits in well for any team that is going to be trading for him as he won't be a rental and is still relatively young yet.

 

Another team that would be a fit for a trade like this would be the Dodgers. Lucroy and Nelson to the Dodgers for De Leon, Verdugo, Barnes, and Imani Abdullah. The Dodgers need starting pitching after Kershaw as everyone behind him has either been ineffective, injured, or coming off injury. This is another spot where Nelson slots in nicely as the teams #3 or #4 starter.

[mattyo]

I wonder if a Lucroy and Nelson to the Red Sox for Espinoza/Benintendi, Kopech, Chavis, Ball or Ockimey.

 

Basically it breaks down to Lucroy brings in Espinoza/Benintendi and Chavis while Nelson brings in Kopech and Ball or Ockimey. Nelson is a solid #3 pitcher who can be put in the Red Sox rotation now and for the next few years cheaply. If the Brewers put Nelson on the market right now he is going to command at least 1 if not 2 of a teams top 10 prospects plus another in the 15-20 range. The market is completely bare of pitching this trading deadline that players like Nelson will have an extreme price tag which is more than they are actually worth. Will a team pay for this maybe maybe not it all depends on how desperate a team gets. Since Nelson is controllable for beyond this season he fits in well for any team that is going to be trading for him as he won't be a rental and is still relatively young yet.

 

Another team that would be a fit for a trade like this would be the Dodgers. Lucroy and Nelson to the Dodgers for De Leon, Verdugo, Barnes, and Imani Abdullah. The Dodgers need starting pitching after Kershaw as everyone behind him has either been ineffective, injured, or coming off injury. This is another spot where Nelson slots in nicely as the teams #3 or #4 starter.

 

If we are packaging Lucroy and Nelson together we better be getting Moncada/Devers + Espinoza/Benintendi. This is also probably why a package of those two together won't happen.

[UMBrewer]

No one is getting Moncada, and throwing Nelson into a deal with Lucroy isnt something that would make the Red Sox make him available.

 

Based on his performance this year he looks like a non tender candidate out in the year 5 or 6 year of his control...Not the type of guy that makes the number one prospect in baseball available.

[nate82]

 

Based on his performance this year he looks like a non tender candidate out in the year 5 or 6 year of his control...Not the type of guy that makes the number one prospect in baseball available.

 

This statement maybe true in bizarro world. If a 3.60 ERA is someone who looks like a non tender candidate in 5 or 6 years then someone needs to tell the Red Sox that they need to DFA David Price now before he gets to the end of his contract!!!!!

[adambr2]

I think the love for Nelson tends to be a bit too high here, especially among those that consider him an ace pitcher, but I agree he's not a non-tender candidate unless he pulls a total Peralta the next couple years.

[A Swing and A Drive]

While it's true that Jimmy Nelson is not in danger of being non-tendered a MLB contract anytime soon, it's a good reality check to realize that he is closer in talent to Wily Peralta than to David Price. (i.e. he would still slot in nicely as a contending teams 4th or 5th starter currently)

 

The Brewers should certainly be open to trading him as his value could be near a career peak at present. Couple that with a weak SP trade market and a re-building team like the Brewers should be open to trading him. With that said, I think they'd get more value for him trading him on his own, opposed to packaging him with someone like Lucroy.

[UMBrewer]

 

Based on his performance this year he looks like a non tender candidate out in the year 5 or 6 year of his control...Not the type of guy that makes the number one prospect in baseball available.

 

This statement maybe true in bizarro world. If a 3.60 ERA is someone who looks like a non tender candidate in 5 or 6 years then someone needs to tell the Red Sox that they need to DFA David Price now before he gets to the end of his contract!!!!!

 

His FIP is 4.94 though, wherease Price's is in the mid 3.00 range. The guy is on pace for a below average WAR season.

 

Baseball Prospectus has 10 year projections on players, and for Nelson he looks a lot like a replacement level pitcher. That's fine for the rebuilding Brewers, but not a major trade chip, definitely not an ace, and not even the type of pitcher that a contender would use at the bottom of their rotation.

 

I think the Wily Peralta comp is a good one right now. Who knows, maybe he turns things around in the 2nd half. I hope he does.

[markedman5]

[dacrew101]

I have a feeling it's gonna be Houston

[A Swing and A Drive]

Tigers LHP Daniel Norris with a nice game today BTW

 

5 IP 8 Hits 2 ER 1 BB 8 K

 

I still feel that he'd make a nice headliner in a Lucroy deal.

[splitterpfj]

I have a feeling it's gonna be Houston

 

For which prospects?

[UMBrewer]

I think the problem here is that Lucroy's value is worth two top 50 prospects (1 hitter and 1 pitcher) but it sounds like the Brewers are asking for more than what he is worth.

 

And then the other issue is that there may be a perceived problem with his numbers. He has a very nice OPS and slugging percentage, but not a ton of HR's. He's not considered a top tier defender either, so that hurts. Yes, there is value in the pitch framing, but I dont think thats something front offices are looking at as a major piece of an acquisition. Add all those things together, its hard for whatever team wants him to give up two big time prospects for.

 

And if you are dealing with the Astros, Martes has to be one of the names as well as Kyle Tucker or Daz Cameron, and then a throw in.

[Hammer]

Since pitching seems to be the theme for Stearns in this trade I'd think that Martes, Paulino and lotto tickets Jose Hernandez + Enrique Chavez would get it done. #MoarPitching #PitchingWoahsolvvd

[paul253]

I know Stearns is asking a a lot, and rightfully so, I just hope he's not over playing his hand. If nobody is willing to match what you're asking, you have to either hope they change their mind or lower your asking price. Whatever we get for him is going to be better than a comp pick. Hopefully someone increases their offer to what Stearns is asking but if not I hope Stearns isn't too stubborn to lower his asking price.

[logan82]

 

Based on his performance this year he looks like a non tender candidate out in the year 5 or 6 year of his control...Not the type of guy that makes the number one prospect in baseball available.

 

This statement maybe true in bizarro world. If a 3.60 ERA is someone who looks like a non tender candidate in 5 or 6 years then someone needs to tell the Red Sox that they need to DFA David Price now before he gets to the end of his contract!!!!!

 

His FIP is 4.94 though, wherease Price's is in the mid 3.00 range. The guy is on pace for a below average WAR season.

 

Baseball Prospectus has 10 year projections on players, and for Nelson he looks a lot like a replacement level pitcher. That's fine for the rebuilding Brewers, but not a major trade chip, definitely not an ace, and not even the type of pitcher that a contender would use at the bottom of their rotation.

 

I think the Wily Peralta comp is a good one right now. Who knows, maybe he turns things around in the 2nd half. I hope he does.

Seriously? It's hard enough to project a year or two. 10 years is a huge waste of time. I would put no stock in those. None.

[Oldcity]

I am also baffled by the continued love of Jimmy Nelson. His k rate, bb rate, and hr/fly ball rate are all well below average. He's been basically a number 5 starter this year who has destroyed his trade value.

[MrTPlush]

I am also baffled by the continued love of Jimmy Nelson. His k rate, bb rate, and hr/fly ball rate are all well below average. He's been basically a number 5 starter this year who has destroyed his trade value.

 

[sarcasm]Are you serious?! It is all about ERA.[/sarcasm]

[brewcrewdue80]

I am also baffled by the continued love of Jimmy Nelson. His k rate, bb rate, and hr/fly ball rate are all well below average. He's been basically a number 5 starter this year who has destroyed his trade value.

 

 

That wasn't the case through the Month of May in his Starts. He's been a #5 all of June. He was a great #3 borderline #2 the 1st 2 months.

 

FWIW, The Lead Trade Rumor is that the Rangers are Hot on the Matt Moore trade idea. A guy who's last 153IP has netted over a 5ERA with a Fip about 4.7 in that time. He has nothing but (3)Option years remaining in an odd contract, because he'd be under team control another year after buying out on his 1st option?

 

Either way, a #5 is the hot commodity right now for a team 10games in the lead on their division.

[A Swing and A Drive]

I am also baffled by the continued love of Jimmy Nelson. His k rate, bb rate, and hr/fly ball rate are all well below average. He's been basically a number 5 starter this year who has destroyed his trade value.

 

 

That wasn't the case through the Month of May in his Starts. He's been a #5 all of June. He was a great #3 borderline #2 the 1st 2 months.

 

FWIW, The Lead Trade Rumor is that the Rangers are Hot on the Matt Moore trade idea. A guy who's last 153IP has netted over a 5ERA with a Fip about 4.7 in that time. He has nothing but (3)Option years remaining in an odd contract, because he'd be under team control another year after buying out on his 1st option?

 

Either way, a #5 is the hot commodity right now for a team 10games in the lead on their division.

 

 

This might make sense to package Lucroy and Nelson together and see if the Rangers would bite on giving up some blue chippers:

 

C Jonathan Lucroy

RHP Jimmy Nelson

 

for

3B Joey Gallo

RHP Luis Ortiz

RHP Ariel Jurado

RHP Pedro Payano or Yohander Medenz

[JohnBriggs12]

I know Stearns is asking a a lot, and rightfully so, I just hope he's not over playing his hand. If nobody is willing to match what you're asking, you have to either hope they change their mind or lower your asking price. Whatever we get for him is going to be better than a comp pick. Hopefully someone increases their offer to what Stearns is asking but if not I hope Stearns isn't too stubborn to lower his asking price.

 

 

Why lower your asking price? You set an asking price based on trying to get more than that players worth to your organization, not less. Getting less than he's worth to the Brewers isn't a way to build a contender. A lot of junk is still junk. Lucroy's a premier player. We have no idea if Stearns and Lucroy's agent have exchanged parameters for an extension. That too could be at play here. It's not they don't have room in the payroll, especially if Braun is dealt, they get somebody to take some of Garza's money, or even if they non tender the likes of Peralta and Anderson.

[Bnowell4evr]

I would have no problem packaging Jimmy Nelson along with Lucroy to bring back a major haul. But then again, I have never thought Jimmy Nelson was much more than Bud Norris type.

[brewcrewdue80]

I am also baffled by the continued love of Jimmy Nelson. His k rate, bb rate, and hr/fly ball rate are all well below average. He's been basically a number 5 starter this year who has destroyed his trade value.

 

 

That wasn't the case through the Month of May in his Starts. He's been a #5 all of June. He was a great #3 borderline #2 the 1st 2 months.

 

FWIW, The Lead Trade Rumor is that the Rangers are Hot on the Matt Moore trade idea. A guy who's last 153IP has netted over a 5ERA with a Fip about 4.7 in that time. He has nothing but (3)Option years remaining in an odd contract, because he'd be under team control another year after buying out on his 1st option?

 

Either way, a #5 is the hot commodity right now for a team 10games in the lead on their division.

 

 

This might make sense to package Lucroy and Nelson together and see if the Rangers would bite on giving up some blue chippers:

 

C Jonathan Lucroy

RHP Jimmy Nelson

 

for

3B Joey Gallo

RHP Luis Ortiz

RHP Ariel Jurado

RHP Pedro Payano or Yohander Medenz

 

The problem with that is the fact Texas is 10games ahead in their division. So now, I think Joey Gallo is untouchable.

I'm thinking a guy like Michael Matuella plus say Josh Morgan is enough to get Matt Moore. Leaving Texas with the ability to keep their top prospects.