Lucroy Trades/Proposals (part 3)

[brewmann04]

Sorry but Trading Luc or Braun should net us a frontline starter which this org severely lacks. They need a young frontline starter not going to happen via FA. I like to see Garza get some good starts between now and the deadline.

[brewcrewdue80]

I would love to have the Astros string off 15 in a row and start a bidding war between them and the Rangers for Lucroy. Dream scenario. Even if the catchers in Texas are decent, it is getting towards the really hot time of year for them. Having two good catchers down there would be more important than say somewhere in the North. Lucroy/Anderson/Jeffess for Brinson\Tate\ Jurado\Forbes

 

Why are you adding both Anderson and jeffrees? Just adding Anderson should net that package

[Mudville9]

I would love to have the Astros string off 15 in a row and start a bidding war between them and the Rangers for Lucroy. Dream scenario. Even if the catchers in Texas are decent, it is getting towards the really hot time of year for them. Having two good catchers down there would be more important than say somewhere in the North. Lucroy/Anderson/Jeffess for Brinson\Tate\ Jurado\Forbes

 

Why are you adding both Anderson and jeffrees? Just adding Anderson should net that package

 

Even better! Honestly, I was under the impression that Brinson and Tate would be hard gets so I figured it would take Lucroy and Anderson just to get those two and Jeffess comes in to nab the other two.

[splitterpfj]

In his recent piece, "Eight Dream Trade Scenarios", Jon Heyman suggested, "Jonathan Lucroy for Joey Gallo."

 

OK, here's the deal - Joey Gallo has as much power potential as you could ever hope for in a young player, there's no doubt about that skill. Gallo also has a strong arm, strong enough to throw from anywhere on the field without question. Due to his power, Gallo is sometimes pitched around, and to his credit, Gallo will take a walk, which of course boosts his OBP.

 

The downside - his hit, run, and field tools are all below average. This player is a gamble on the huge power skills, backed by the need to choose a defensive position for him, which may not be third base.

 

If the Brewers did this, they may have a future Hall of Famer, who hits 600 home runs, or they may have a classic AAAA player.

[reillymcshane]

I would love to have the Astros string off 15 in a row and start a bidding war between them and the Rangers for Lucroy. Dream scenario. Even if the catchers in Texas are decent, it is getting towards the really hot time of year for them. Having two good catchers down there would be more important than say somewhere in the North. Lucroy/Anderson/Jeffess for Brinson\Tate\ Jurado\Forbes

 

Why are you adding both Anderson and jeffrees? Just adding Anderson should net that package

I don't know if Anderson really has much value right now. 5.13 ERA. He's never been that good to begin with, and this year he's been serving up taters at an alarming rate. And it's not like he's oozing with tools - he's got fringy stuff that relies on pinpoint control to be successful.

[billymac]

Both Tate and Brinson were thought to be close to untouchable at the start of the season, both are scuffling this year. Tate's first 3 starts were awesome, since then he's had 1-2 good games and a bunch of stinkers. Brinson is at 219/273/417 for the year in a repeat of AA. I wonder if Daniels would sell low on both or consider them untouchable or if the Brewers Front office views them as elite prospects anymore.

[Mudville9]

Both Tate and Brinson were thought to be close to untouchable at the start of the season, both are scuffling this year. Tate's first 3 starts were awesome, since then he's had 1-2 good games and a bunch of stinkers. Brinson is at 219/273/417 for the year in a repeat of AA. I wonder if Daniels would sell low on both or consider them untouchable or if the Brewers Front office views them as elite prospects anymore.

 

Wow, I didn't know Brinson was struggling THAT much.

 

I guess you have to trust your scouts at that point.

 

--Captain Obvious

[MrTPlush]

I would love to have the Astros string off 15 in a row and start a bidding war between them and the Rangers for Lucroy. Dream scenario. Even if the catchers in Texas are decent, it is getting towards the really hot time of year for them. Having two good catchers down there would be more important than say somewhere in the North. Lucroy/Anderson/Jeffess for Brinson\Tate\ Jurado\Forbes

 

Why are you adding both Anderson and jeffrees? Just adding Anderson should net that package

 

Even better! Honestly, I was under the impression that Brinson and Tate would be hard gets so I figured it would take Lucroy and Anderson just to get those two and Jeffess comes in to nab the other two.

 

No no...you had it right the first time. You would be lucky if Lucroy/Jeffress could command what you proposed. Anderson would give us free air fare for our new players.

[reillymcshane]

Heyman threw out a bunch of trade ideas, including Luc for Gallo:

 

Jonathan Lucroy to the Rangers for Joey Gallo. Gallo is blocked, at least at third base, for two more years by Adrian Beltre. The Nats, Arizona Diamondbacks and others were also in the mix for Lucroy this winter but those two teams have gotten as much production from catcher as anyone. The Rangers haven’t seemed desperate for catching either, but Lucroy represents a chance to solidify their mantle as the A.L. favorite. “You put Lucroy on the Rangers, you’ve got to put them at the front of the line,” one A.L scout said. The Brewers have gotten superb seasons from both Lucroy and Ryan Braun and could still consider an extension for Lucroy, who at 30 is still a great building block for a young team.

 

http://www.todaysknuckleball.com/inside-baseball-with-jon-heyman/dream-trade-scenarios/

 

There's also a suggestion of Braun to the Giants for Tyler Beede and Mac Williamson. Please debate that one over at the Ryan Braun trade thread if you want.

[mattyo]

Assuming that Gallo is the only big piece we get when trading with Texas, I would much rather take Brinson + Tate/Ortiz. I would not be upset with Gallo but he really is a major, major risk. Still would rather trade with LAD/Boston

[UMBrewer]

It will be interesting to see what some of the mid season top 50 prospects lists look like.

 

I was talking with some Indians fans the other day, and thought that a trade of Lucroy to the Indians for Frazier/Aiken/throw in, and none of them wanted it.

 

Then again, they didnt realize how cheap Lucroy's contract is, and that they would get him for a year and a half.

 

My guess is that the teams most interested in Lucroy are going to be the Blue Jays, Mets, Indians, Astros, Dodgers, Red Sox and Tigers. Of those teams,of course Stearns knows intimately what he would want from Houston in a trade, and the Mets, Dodgers and Red Sox could "overpay" if they wanted him that badly. And all 3 have prospects to deal that would greatly improve the farm system.

[MrTPlush]

Frazier/Aiken would be pretty awesome to get, but that is a ton of upside for the Indians to give up. Not saying Lucroy doesn't deserve that return, but just that I have a hard time seeing the Indians do it.

[MadThinker88]

While Lucroy would be an improvement over Gomes/Perez/Giminez offensively, it's a toss up between Lucroy and Gomes defensively. Some measurables have Lucroy ahead, others have Gomes ahead.

 

If the Indians had a guy like Hank Conger as their catcher, then I could see the Tribe paying the prosepcts to go after Lucroy.

[reillymcshane]

Assuming that Gallo is the only big piece we get when trading with Texas, I would much rather take Brinson + Tate/Ortiz. I would not be upset with Gallo but he really is a major, major risk. Still would rather trade with LAD/Boston

I agree that Gallo is a risk, but his upside - that of a 35-40 HR guy - is pretty tantalizing. A power hitter like Gallo is someone this system really lacks, so it would be nice to have. Plus it would just be cool to watch the guy - you just never know when one would go out of the park.

[brewcrewdue80]

Assuming that Gallo is the only big piece we get when trading with Texas, I would much rather take Brinson + Tate/Ortiz. I would not be upset with Gallo but he really is a major, major risk. Still would rather trade with LAD/Boston

I agree that Gallo is a risk, but his upside - that of a 35-40 HR guy - is pretty tantalizing. A power hitter like Gallo is someone this system really lacks, so it would be nice to have. Plus it would just be cool to watch the guy - you just never know when one would go out of the park.

 

Kris Bryant was also to be bust potential due to the K rate. Only 5.9WAR last season and 2.8WAR thus far this season.

 

Gallo has dropped his K rate from 37%(age 21) to 27.6%(age 22) thus far this season. 27.7% was Bryant's K rate his last full season in the minors. Also age 22.

[MrTPlush]

Not sure I really get the Bryant comparison. At least Bryant mashed in the minors(.325 AVG). Gallo on the other hand has a career .258 average. Now by no means am I saying average is everything, but there's a point where it really limits you. Typically one would expect a players stats to get worse once they get to the MLB level and for a guy very strikeout prone those concerns are even higher. You start talking about have a Chris Carter type player.

 

If I was trading Lucroy straight up for a player(with no other major pieces) I would expect that player to have a superstar ceiling and a good bet to get there or be very close. While Gallo has a superstar ceiling I am very concerned about his chances to get there and the fear of a low floor.

[brewcrewdue80]

Not sure I really get the Bryant comparison. At least Bryant mashed in the minors(.325 AVG). Gallo on the other hand has a career .258 average. Now by no means am I saying average is everything, but there's a point where it really limits you. Typically one would expect a players stats to get worse once they get to the MLB level and for a guy very strikeout prone those concerns are even higher. You start talking about have a Chris Carter type player.

 

If I was trading Lucroy straight up for a player(with no other major pieces) I would expect that player to have a superstar ceiling and a good bet to get there or be very close. While Gallo has a superstar ceiling I am very concerned about his chances to get there and the fear of a low floor.

 

Kris Bryant didn't have age 18-20 to have a growing pains in the minors like Gallo. But both do have Age 21 and Age 22 to compare. It's not fair to add Gallo's age 18-20 seasons.

Gallo has increased his .195 avg in AAA last season to .263 at the moment. So it can still reach that .325 by year's end.

 

The point is that 27% increases his BA potential to a .260s likelihood. 37% probably gave it a .215 likelihood. He's still very young and players improve generally to age 28. You get him in trade, guess what, you're controlling him through to age 29 in years. You can't really ask for any better than that. Reduce the K% by another 4-6% and he's around .280. Could you imagine that with 35+HRs a season? And obviously he will possess good trade value.

[Austin Tatious]

Agreed. Bryant, Braun, and these types of top 5 advanced college bats are the standard for Corey Ray, not high school development guys who aren't as old and haven't seen as advanced pitching.

 

Hopefully Ray jumps a couple of levels per year and devastates minor league pitching the way top 5 picked college bats should. Take a look at how Braun progressed in the minors. That's what you want if you take a top 5 college bat. .320 with extra base hits, power. Develop his arm and his jump on the ball defensively. He's got every opportunity. He does come across like a great kid. Now is the time to advance rapidly.

[Lee16]

The Mets just demoted Conforto after he needed a cortisone shot (which I'm not sure they can do actually), but anyway, that team is riddled with injuries and possible injuries. If they really believe they can make the post season this year, now is the time to strike a deal, they HAVE to be desperate.

[1992casey]

I think they're OK if Conforto doesn't go on the disabled list. If a DL stay becomes necessary, they might have to rescind the demotion and put him on the Major League club's list.

[MrTPlush]

Anonymous GM says the Brewers plan on moving Lucroy at the deadline. Not that it is all that surprising, but something none the less with the June silence on rumors.

[brewcrewdue80]

Cleveland has a 9game winning streak and a 5game lead now on the White Sox. It's time for them to get serious and change their Catcher. Yan Gomes has 2 options remaining so they could just send him down for the next rest of the season, and maybe in 2017, though they are paying him a ML Contract. But then again, if you're Milwaukee, you could also seek out a better return taking him back. Either way, the difference of Gomes and Lucroy is big. And without having Brantley for much of this season aside from his decline in numbers, Indians have been leading off with Carlos Santana(former Catcher) and batting Mike Napoli cleanup who leads baseball in Ks on the season. Both are sitting at the 100 OPS+ number(103/98) .230s only a .308 OB for Napoli. Lucroy would fit in that cleanup spot with Napoli 5th in batting order much better. Or, if they are willing to bat Santana 1st because of his willingness to take walks and get on base-.331. Lucroy not only has better BA but the higher OB, he could slide there. Either or, statistically speaking is an improvement than current.

 

Cleveland possesses the Pitching to make a run in the Playoffs. And they also possess a great amount of prospects to acquire that can net a positive trade for Lucroy. Zimmer/Frazier could headline though that is OF.

Or you take a stab at more prospects not as loud a headliner with Bobby Bradley a 1b, Brady Aiken and Justus Sheffield SPs. Some depth in SPs with Rob Kaminsky and Juan Hillman who I liked predraft last season.

 

You could maybe add Aaron Hill for Juan Uribe to increase the level of your prospect return should Hill continue his current batting line.

 

I know Texas gets a lot of love for Lucroy trade, but I'm in belief Cleveland could use Lucroy more and pony up for his service. So many ways to improve the trade that would fit for Cleveland. And now that they are leading the division solidifying their position makes a lot of sense.....Don't forget the power within that city of the Cavaliers championship, and making this Cleveland's year if they add to it a WS championship. Their attendance is slowly rising wouldn't be surprised they move from a 14k general attend to a 23k general attend.

[A Swing and A Drive]

I just don't know if the Indians will be willing to trade the likes of Frazier or Aiken for an upgrade from Gomes to Lucroy.

 

I wouldn't mind this however:

 

1B Bobby Bradley

RHP Triston McKenzie

3rd piece of Sterns liking

 

for

C Jonathon Lucroy

 

Bradley and McKenzie are further away from the Bigs, both I like both their ceilings.

[JohnBriggs12]

Assuming that Gallo is the only big piece we get when trading with Texas, I would much rather take Brinson + Tate/Ortiz. I would not be upset with Gallo but he really is a major, major risk. Still would rather trade with LAD/Boston

I agree that Gallo is a risk, but his upside - that of a 35-40 HR guy - is pretty tantalizing. A power hitter like Gallo is someone this system really lacks, so it would be nice to have. Plus it would just be cool to watch the guy - you just never know when one would go out of the park.

 

What team are you watching? 6 weeks prior to opening day, the Brewers had not one but two 35-40 HR guys, Davis and Carter. They traded Davis, but still have Carter, who's controllable through 2018 and is exactly the same kind of hitter.

[A Swing and A Drive]

The Brewer top minor league hitting prospects certainly are lacking in power potential like Joey Gallo. There is no question about it.

 

Orlando Arcia, Brett Phillips, Corey Ray and Trenton Clark probably all have a MLB ceiling of about 20 HR a year power.

 

The system is also lacking in Corner Infield prospects.

 

That's why players like 1B/3B Joey Gallo and 1B Bobby Bradley have some definite appeal.

 

Plus the Rangers and Indians both have intriguing pitchers to add to the trade mix, as well.