Lucroy Trades/Proposals (part 3)

[JosephC]

 

That means, either Bradley Zimmer, or Clint Frazier, adjusting a bit, because I know the Brewers would get a pitcher in the deal, I'll say Rob Kaminsky, or Juan Hillman, and someone in the 20s on Cleveland's list - there are several pitchers in there, but I'll say, outfielder Greg Allen.

 

Bradley Zimmer or Clint Frazier

Juan Hillman

Greg Allen

 

 

That's pretty close to what I'm thinking. I don't think the subtraction of Greg Allen and the addition of C-Francisco Mejia to the deal is unreasonable for two reasons. My proposal adds Will Smith to the trade, which should provide an significant upgrade to the "second or third chips" added into the deal. And Sabathia was only under team control for 0.5 season, whereas in this deal the Indians would control Lucroy for 1.5 seasons and Smith for 3.5 seasons. I can appreciate that Sabathia was a true staff ace and those players are worth their weight in gold, but Lucroy is an all-star catcher and when considering in the extra control involved I think the Brewers should get back about the equivalent of what they gave up for Sabathia if the package also includes Jeffress or Smith.

 

One more note. I have no idea where Brantley would have ranked in the 2008 mid-season rankings but it definitely would have been far higher than it was in BA's 2008 Handbook. In the 2009 BA Handbook he was ranked #9 in Cleveland's system...I would make the assumption that he would have been viewed as a "organizational top 10 prospect" by the time the Indians made the choice between him or Green. So if you use the same definitions that I used earlier, the Indians got 1 "top 50 prospect," 1 "organizational top 10 prospect," 1 "role player" and 1 "throw-in" when dealing away Sabathia. By that point I think Zach Jackson's stock had fallen far enough where I wouldn't even put the "role player" tag on him.

[JosephC]

Went over to the Indians board and one of them proposed a Lucroy/Smith/Jeffress for Frazier/Sheffield/Mejia/Kaminsky which was laughed off. Most of their fans don't think Lucroy is near worth Frazier.

 

They also think there isn't much interest in Lucroy which there might not be to be honest and that Mejia could be a center piece in a lucroy deal..

 

Interesting, I myself am wondering if there is enough interest in lucroy

 

Cleveland has enough talent where I think the Brewers could get proper value back for Lucroy without including Frazier or Zimmer in the trade. But if Cleveland subtracted Frazier/Zimmer from a deal then I would subtract Smith and ask them to include LHP-Justus Sheffield and one other fairly significant piece (in addition to C-Mejia and LHP-Hillman). If the Indians want Will Smith back in the deal then the other fairly significant piece could get upgraded to someone like LHP-Rob Kaminsky.

 

But I think it makes more sense for Cleveland to include Frazier or Zimmer. MLBTradeRumors had a piece up where they talked about Cleveland's outfield in 2017 and 2018 being Michael Brantley, Tyler Naquin, Lonnie Chisenhall, Frazier/Zimmer, Jose Ramirez (super utility man)...it seems to make more sense to give up one of the outfielders and not have a blockbuster trade suck too much young pitching out of their organization.

[pacopete4]

Why hasn't Yandy Diaz already been called up? Uribe hasn't given them much.

 

We are talking about the same team that may not trade for a catcher when they currently trot out guys worse than some pitchers when it comes to hitting.

 

They want to stick with the veteran. Just my guess as many teams do that every year.

 

 

Yeah you are probably right. Maybe Uribe is superior on D, who knows.

[SandyTolan]

About the Sabathia trade --

 

Wasn't the once-bright prospect Angel Salome on the list for Cleveland to choose from? As I recall he seemed like a can't-miss prospect -- .in 2008 he had a 973 OPS in Huntsville, the old Brewers AA team. I was hoping he wouldn't be included in the CC deal, and as I recall he was passed over in favor of Brantley, who Tom Haudricourt wrote was considered to have the ceiling of a 4th outfielder. Funny how things changed. Salome meantime flamed out, apparently due in part to some emotional issues.

[LouisEly]

When all else is equal, go with the left handed hitter. Zimmer by a nose.

This. Not sure about how Frazier has more power when Zimmer has a higher career SLG and has hit one more HR in ~30 more non-walk/HBP PAs over the last two seasons. Zimmer strikes out more, but he also walks more and has a higher OBP. Same with Bradley, yes he strikes out a bunch but he also has a nice walk rate and just turned 20 years old and is in high-A ball. He is far from a finished product.

 

That all being said, there isn't much difference between the three. For Lucroy, I'd take:

 

One of Frazier/Zimmer/Bradley

One of Aiken/Mckenzie

One of Hillman/Mejia/Diaz

 

Throw in Smith and it's:

 

One of Frazier/Zimmer/Bradley

Two of Aiken/Mackenzie/Sheffield

Two of Hillman/Mejia/Diaz/Clevinger

 

If we are looking for the next Brantley - a lower ranked guy who is rising - Cleveland has those too. Here are some other guys I would not mind coming back in a trade:

 

a) Yu-Cheng Chang, SS/3B - holding his own as a 20-year-old in high-A, has a very nice .275/.346/.491 line with 11 HRs and plenty of room to grow in his listed 6'1", 175 lb frame; 18th in the Carolina League in OPS

b) Anthony Santander, OF - don't see him on any list, but he's a 21-year-old switch-hitting OF with a very nice .289/.360/.500 line with 15 HRs (second to Bradley on the team); he's 3rd in the Carolina League in HRs and 14th in OPS. Flying under the radar because he was hurt last year and struggled as an 18/19 year old in A-ball. Not sure if he's playing LF because he has to - he's 6'2", 190 so he's no sloth - or because of other players on the team, notably...

c) Greg Allen, CF - not as young as the other guys and in his 3rd year out of San Diego State, he's been getting better every year. While 23 years old, he's a switch hitter who has a .425 OBP, more BB than K, and 38 steals. That kind of OBP + speed, coupled with a switch-hitter and a CF, could become quite a valuable player.

 

If you see any of those three coming back in a deal, don't be upset.

[Bnowell4evr]

About the Sabathia trade --

 

Wasn't the once-bright prospect Angel Salome on the list for Cleveland to choose from? As I recall he seemed like a can't-miss prospect -- .in 2008 he had a 973 OPS in Huntsville, the old Brewers AA team. I was hoping he wouldn't be included in the CC deal, and as I recall he was passed over in favor of Brantley, who Tom Haudricourt wrote was considered to have the ceiling of a 4th outfielder. Funny how things changed. Salome meantime flamed out, apparently due in part to some emotional issues.

 

I don't remember hearinghis name connected to that trade at all. Salome was ahead of Lucroy at the time and was pretty much untouchable.

[MrTPlush]

Frazier has more RAW power by a good margin. However who knows if he will ever fully tap into it.

[splitterpfj]

Good analysis, LE, but I think it would take Lucroy/Smith/heavily discounted Braun to get two Top 5s from this particular organization.

 

I think Lucroy brings one of their top five - Aiken, Bradley, Frazier, McKenzie, Zimmer - I think the Brewers should also get Mejia, who may become a more than competent replacement for Lucroy himself, and then one more, from further down the list.

 

If Smith goes, I think the ceiling there is someone like Sheffield or Mejia - he will not get one of those others at the top, but he will get more than one player back.

[Mr Southpaw]

Good analysis, LE, but I think it would take Lucroy/Smith/heavily discounted Braun to get two Top 5s from this particular organization.

 

I think Lucroy brings one of their top five - Aiken, Bradley, Frazier, McKenzie, Zimmer - I think the Brewers should also get Mejia, who may become a more than competent replacement for Lucroy himself, and then one more, from further down the list.

 

If Smith goes, I think the ceiling there is someone like Sheffield or Mejia - he will not get one of those others at the top, but he will get more than one player back.

If that organization does not meet your asking price, then you move on to someone else or don't make a trade. No one the Brewers are shopping has to be traded.

[pacopete4]

Yeah I'm in the camp that if we don't get a resonable offer than just hold tight. Screw these teams if they don't want a player of his caliber.

[trwi7]

The offers are only going to get lower after the trade deadline. Lucroy needs to be traded in the next week.

[JosephC]

 

That all being said, there isn't much difference between the three. For Lucroy, I'd take:

 

One of Frazier/Zimmer/Bradley

One of Aiken/Mckenzie

One of Hillman/Mejia/Diaz

 

Throw in Smith and it's:

 

One of Frazier/Zimmer/Bradley

Two of Aiken/Mackenzie/Sheffield

Two of Hillman/Mejia/Diaz/Clevinger

 

 

Who knows how Stearns stacks the players in the Indian's organization? But I'm guessing Mejia is no longer in the same group as a player like Diaz. Looking at rankings from Baseball America and MLB.com, I'm guessing the Indian's system stacks up as follows:

 

Group 1:

OF - Clint Frazier (top 50 prospect)

OF - Bradley Zimmer (top 50 prospect)

 

Group 2:

1B - Bobby Bradley (top 100 prospect)

LHP - Brady Aiken (top 100 prospect)

LHP - Justus Sheffield (top 100 prospect)

C- Francisco Mejia (top 100 prospect)

RHP - Mike Clevinger (top 100 prospect)

 

Group 3:

LHP - Rob Kaminsky (organizational top 10 prospect)

RHP - Triston McKenzie (organizational top 10 prospect)

LHP - Juan Hillman (organizational top 10 prospect)

 

Note : Organizational top 10 prospect does not mean I ended group 3 because 10 players had been reached. If it seemed like prospects 11, 12 and 13 would have fit in the top 10 of most MLB organizations then they would have been included in group three. On the flip side, in a reasonably weak organization there would only be three or four players included the first three groups (see Detroit).

 

Group 4:

2B - Mark Mathis (role player)

SS - Yu-Cheng Chang (role player)

3B - Yandy Diaz (role player)

OF - Mike Papi (role player)

SS - Erik Gonzalez (role player)

SS - Tyler Krieger (role player)

RHP - Adam Plutko (role player)

LHP - Shawn Morimando (role player)

OF - Greg Allen (role player)

1B - Nellie Rodriguez (role player)

RHP - Shawn Armstrong (role player)

LHP - Luis Lugo (role player)

SS - Willi Castro (role player)

SS - Luke Wakamatsu (role player)

[Bnowell4evr]

That's pretty close to how I would rate the Indians farm system but with some small changes.

 

- Triston McKenzie should be in Tier 2.

- Diaz and Chang should be in Tier 3.

[MrTPlush]

The Indians may get Champman which could end their pursuit of Lucroy. If that happens and the Rangers get the big time starter they want we could be in trouble.

[MadThinker88]

.....

If we are looking for the next Brantley - a lower ranked guy who is rising - Cleveland has those too. Here are some other guys I would not mind coming back in a trade:

 

a) Yu-Cheng Chang, SS/3B - holding his own as a 20-year-old in high-A, has a very nice .275/.346/.491 line with 11 HRs and plenty of room to grow in his listed 6'1", 175 lb frame; 18th in the Carolina League in OPS

b) Anthony Santander, OF - don't see him on any list, but he's a 21-year-old switch-hitting OF with a very nice .289/.360/.500 line with 15 HRs (second to Bradley on the team); he's 3rd in the Carolina League in HRs and 14th in OPS. Flying under the radar because he was hurt last year and struggled as an 18/19 year old in A-ball. Not sure if he's playing LF because he has to - he's 6'2", 190 so he's no sloth - or because of other players on the team, notably...

c) Greg Allen, CF - not as young as the other guys and in his 3rd year out of San Diego State, he's been getting better every year. While 23 years old, he's a switch hitter who has a .425 OBP, more BB than K, and 38 steals. That kind of OBP + speed, coupled with a switch-hitter and a CF, could become quite a valuable player.

 

If you see any of those three coming back in a deal, don't be upset.

 

Santander has been battling injuries for a couple seasons. That has caused the lack of 'rankings'. I recall seeing him with Lake County when they played in Appleton in 2013 & not being impressed. Happy he is finally healthy and able to play on a regular basis now. Btw, his is normally a RF.

[dacrew101]

If the Indians were really interested in Lucroy I doubt a Chapman rental would stop them from getting him. While Chapman would cost a decent prospect or whatever it won't cost a farm

 

I'm wondering if the Indians really believe in their catchers

 

According to fangraph they have the worst catching situation so far this season

[trwi7]

I'm wondering if the Indians really believe in their catchers

 

They're stupid if they do.

[dacrew101]

I'm wondering if the Indians really believe in their catchers

 

They're stupid if they do.

 

Agreed, Roberto Perez just cost the Indians a win today and overall hasn't be good at all. And Gomes is obviously a liability on offense.

 

Plus the Indians have been struggling for offense lately..

 

Lucroy would really be a great fit there

[MilwaukeeBeers]

I'm wondering if the Indians really believe in their catchers

 

They're stupid if they do.

The same front office that threw 104 million at Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher stupid?! No way.

[MrTPlush]

The Indians might have one of the worst catching situations in recent memory. When Yan Gomes went down he already had produced a crisp -1.2 WAR by himself and mind you the other catchers suck just as bad. People still complain about Yuni B costing us so much and he only had -.5 WAR over an entire year.

 

The Indians are absolute idiots if they don't trade for a catcher and honestly I'd think they are pretty stupid if they don't get Lucroy. It would improve that team more than any other possible move could.

[1992casey]

I've split this thread to maintain board performance. Discussion is continued here:

 

viewtopic.php?f=66&t=34373