Lucroy Trades/Proposals (part 3)

[nate82]

 

Astros

David Paulino, RHP

Colin Moran, 3B

Franklin Perez, RHP

Miguelangel Sierra, SS

 

Indians

Triston McKenzie, RHP

Bobby Bradley, 1B

Yandy Diaz, 3B

 

Rangers

Luis Ortiz, RHP

Yohander Mendez, LHP

Leody Taveras, OF

 

Red Sox

Rafael Devers, 3B

Josh Ockimey, 1B

 

The Red Sox offer by far has the best talent but is missing pitching. I would take the Red Sox offer though I think the Brewers are getting a 1B in Ockimey and an 1B/OF in Devers but you are getting 25+ HR power in both of the players with Devers possibly growing into a 30+ HR type of a player.

[StearnsFTW]

 

Indians

Triston McKenzie, RHP

Bobby Bradley, 1B

Yandy Diaz, 3B

 

I'd much rather get a second arm rather than a guy like Diaz. If we do end up with a second position prospect, I'd much prefer it to be Mejia.

 

Why not a fan of Diaz? Seems like he could hit for a high average, provide good OBP% skills, and play above average defense. He hasen't shown too much power, but the rest of his game is pretty nice. Not to mention he sounds like he is pretty versatile with the ability to play everything, but SS.

 

I would not mind him as a secondary piece.

 

I like Diaz. Profiles like Cirillo to me. As a 3rd piece, heck yeah.

 

I don't like Bradley personally, but a package of Zimmer/McKenzie/Diaz is a home run to me.

[Eye Black]

A couple of days old, but Astros Future blog with a look at Six Trade Deadline Targets for the Astros which includes a pair of Brewers (Lucroy and Will Smith).

[NievesNoNO]

As a hypothetical let's pretend the four offers below are presented as each teams "best and final" offer for Lucroy (no other Brewers' trade-chips involved). Which offer (if any) would you be excited about? Which offers would you be disappointed with?

 

Astros

David Paulino, RHP

Colin Moran, 3B

Franklin Perez, RHP

Miguelangel Sierra, SS

 

Indians

Triston McKenzie, RHP

Bobby Bradley, 1B

Yandy Diaz, 3B

 

Rangers

Luis Ortiz, RHP

Yohander Mendez, LHP

Leody Taveras, OF

 

Red Sox

Rafael Devers, 3B

Josh Ockimey, 1B

 

To me the only one that is of equal value for Lucroy is the Red Sox one.

 

Next I'd go with Cleveland, then Houston, and the Rangers.

 

If you swing and miss with Devers I think that's forgivable. With Houston and Texas there's too many question marks to trade away your best asset.

 

I like the Cleveland offer as I think McKenzie seems to offer the biggest upside of the pitchers listed without any real durability concerns at this point. Bradly seems to be a solid power 1B prospect. Judging only by the stats of the player listed, I'd say Diaz has the highest floor. He appears to be big league ready and have some position versatility. There's a lot of value in that for me even if there maybe isn't much upside.

[Boomer5]

Will Smith and Luc for Bregman.

 

Does Houston make that deal?

[Boomer5]

Chris Sale scratched from his start, I assume for a trade. The dominoes are starting to fall.

[dacrew101]

Will Smith and Luc for Bregman.

 

Does Houston make that deal?

 

Nope, you don't trade superstar potential for that

[dacrew101]

Red Sox about to dump the farm for Sale aren't they..

[MrTPlush]

Sale to Rangers would be a huge dagger for us trading Lucroy. Likely would take away a major team in the Lucroy chase.

[PeaveyFury]

Why not a fan of Diaz? Seems like he could hit for a high average, provide good OBP% skills, and play above average defense. He hasen't shown too much power, but the rest of his game is pretty nice. Not to mention he sounds like he is pretty versatile with the ability to play everything, but SS.

 

I would not mind him as a secondary piece.

 

It's not that I'm not a fan of or don't like Diaz, it's just that Lucroy is probably our best chance to infuse quality pitching into our system. If we're not grabbing a top pitching prospect, I'd prefer us to get two very good ones rather than one and two position players.

[billymac]

Trade Lucroy for Sale, then flip Sale for 5 top prospects before next weekend

[dacrew101]

Trade Lucroy for Sale, then flip Sale for 5 top prospects before next weekend

 

Not sure if a joke or

[dacrew101]

All I keep hearing is this or that team isn't going for lucroy..

 

It's all pitching..

 

A bit worrisome but we'll see what happens

[molitor fan]

Just my speculation, but considering we have been scouting the Giants AAA team, if Luc is dealt without Will Smith, Will might be going to Giants for catcher Andrew Susac

[JosephC]

As a hypothetical let's pretend the four offers below are presented as each teams "best and final" offer for Lucroy (no other Brewers' trade-chips involved). Which offer (if any) would you be excited about? Which offers would you be disappointed with?

 

Astros

David Paulino, RHP

Colin Moran, 3B

Franklin Perez, RHP

Miguelangel Sierra, SS

 

Indians

Triston McKenzie, RHP

Bobby Bradley, 1B

Yandy Diaz, 3B

 

Rangers

Luis Ortiz, RHP

Yohander Mendez, LHP

Leody Taveras, OF

 

Red Sox

Rafael Devers, 3B

Josh Ockimey, 1B

 

If those are the best final offers that the Brewers receive for Lucroy then I'd keep him for the rest of this season and look to deal him in the off-season.

 

There had been the reports of Jeffress to the Marlins for Chris Paddack prior to the Fernando Rodney deal. I'd guess Stearns is holding onto Jeffress and Smith until later in the month to see if the can get a bigger return from a trade partner if either of the relievers are included in a Lucroy or Braun trade. Either could be worth more to upgrade an blockbuster trade rather than the return they would bring if traded on their own. So with that idea in mind, most of what follows assumes an extra Brewer piece is added into a Lucroy trade.

 

When the Brewers traded Gomez and Fiers the return was, according to Baseball America, a top 50 prospect (Phillips, who was ranked #21 in their 2015 mid-season rankings), two organizational top 10 prospects (from a system that was one of the 10 best in baseball) and a role player candidate. I am not ignoring that Fiers is a starter and that the Brewer bullpen trade candidates are relievers, but if the Brewers package Lucroy and Smith/Jeffress in a deal it should at least approach what they received in the Gomez/Fiers deal. Not necessarily be equal, but at least approach.

 

I would say the only prospect listed above that qualifies as a top 50 prospect is Rafael Devers and he is paired with a role player candidate. The rest of the deals are 1 top 100 prospect + 1 organizational top 10 prospect + 1 or 2 role players. IMO the value isn't there in any of these deals to trade Lucroy. Lucroy is one of the three best catchers in the game IMO, has an extremely favorable contract and is controlled for 1.5 years. The Brewers need to do better.

 

Return from Cleveland should be something like Lucory + Smith for OF-Clint Frazier (or substitute Bradley Zimmer), C-Francisco Mejia and LHP-Juan Hillman. Return from Texas should be something like Lucroy + Jeffress for OF-Lewis Brinson, RHP-Luis Ortiz and RHP-Ariel Jurado. If the Brewers can't get that now, hold onto Lucroy and, barring injury, they should be able to get a return of a top 100 prospect plus and top 10 organizational prospect plus a role player deal done in the off-season.

[MrTPlush]

If that is the best offers we get you suck it up and take the Red Sox offers. Lucroy can be worth whatever what we think is fair, but at the end of the day the offers we get are our options. Holding onto him is not going to make the offers better at this point and a ridiculous gamble. Sometimes players just don't have the market form and don't get what all the experts think they can get.

[adambr2]

I can't believe the Indians aren't just going all in on Lucroy. Catcher is such a huge weakness for them by far that Lucroy is a massive upgrade and we could also help their bullpen. That probably pushes them from AL contenders to AL favorites. And they could probably get it done without giving up their top 2 guys if they give us at least four 51-100 guys. For a franchise that hasn't won a World Series in almost 70 years. And it's not every year that 2 cheap postseasons of one of the best catchers in baseball becomes available at the deadline.

[MadThinker88]

I know there are some Brewers fans that think either Lucroy brings in a Kings ransom so he doesn't get dealt. I would be in the opposite camp. A deal needs to made sending Lucroy to some team.

 

I'm not suggesting taking pennies on the dollar but Lucroy's value was highest after the 2014 (near MVP) season. Yes, he is playing well now, but his value is not as high, as then just considering the amount of control that remains (1+ years now vs 3 years then). After the season, his value will be less than now.

 

Lucroy is the best method to bring in starting pitching prospects... The most expensive item to acquire out on the market.. Find the best offer and take it while you still can!

[splitterpfj]

I don't have 'em all, but I still have several "Baseball America Prospect Handbooks" from recent years. I looked on the ol' bookshelf and found the 2008 edition. That's the year of the Sabathia trade, so, just for kicks, I looked something up.

 

The Brewers traded Matt LaPorta, Rob Bryson, and Michael Brantley for Sabathia, (they also threw in pitcher Zach Jackson, but I left him out of the exercise).

 

When this book was printed, prior to the 2008 season, LaPorta was rated the Brewers #1 prospect, Bryson was number 11, and Michael Brantley was number 24. As that season played out, Brantley's stock rose, but it's fair to say, he was not one of the Brewers' highest rated prospects at the time.

 

The Brewers' farm system was very highly regarded at the time - LaPorta, Manny Parra, Alcides Escobar, Jeremy Jeffress, Mat Gamel, Lorenzo Cain, Brantley, and oh by the way .... Jonathan Lucroy was the #16 prospect in the system at the time. I point that out to be clear - as the top rated prospect in a deep farm system, getting LaPorta was a big deal for Cleveland at the time of the trade. I remember, a scout for the Reds called me that year and told me every single player in the Huntsville Stars' lineup had a chance to play in the major leagues, (that was the Brewers' AA team at the time).

 

OK, so, LaPorta was #1, Rob Bryson was #11, and Brantley was #24 in the Brewers' system.

 

CC Sabathia was a true stud starting pitcher, in his prime - the kind of pitcher who can, and did, change the fortunes of a season. He was also a rental - Sabathia made 17 starts for the Brewers, covering 130.2 innings pitched.

 

Jonathan Lucroy is an all-star, he can hit, and he can field, both at a high level. Lucroy plays a position of demand, and Cleveland is in a position where the addition of Lucroy absolutely fills a major need, and boosts the probability of their making the 2016 World Series - he is signed for one additional season - both Sabathia in 2008, and (presumably at least) Lucroy after next season, bring draft pick compensation if they are not re-signed.

 

So then - what's a fair offer from Cleveland for Lucroy?

 

OK .... their #1, #11, and #24 prospects, possibly adding a fringe player like Jackson.

 

That means, either Bradley Zimmer, or Clint Frazier, adjusting a bit, because I know the Brewers would get a pitcher in the deal, I'll say Rob Kaminsky, or Juan Hillman, and someone in the 20s on Cleveland's list - there are several pitchers in there, but I'll say, outfielder Greg Allen.

 

Bradley Zimmer or Clint Frazier

Juan Hillman

Greg Allen

 

or

 

If the Brewers insist on a pitcher at the top of the deal, which would likely flip the second player to a non-pitcher ...

 

Brady Aiken or Tristan McKenzie

Roberto Mejia

Greg Allen

[adambr2]

It depends what we're talking. Yeah, I've accepted that multiple top 50s for Lucroy is unlikely. But I still don't think that means you take a bad deal just to take the top bid. Its bad business IMO and sets a bad precedent. An Adam Lind type return for 3 lottery tickets obviously isn't enough. A Khris Davis type return still isn't really close.

 

In the end, I'm not too concerned and I think it'll be a moot point, because I fully expect Lucroy to return fair value. There's multiple teams that could really use him, and he's the only of his type available. Stearns should stay firm and stick to his guns all the way up to the deadline. If he does, I fully expect that some team will make a competitive offer in the 11th hour, just like what happened with Gomez last year. The motivation to win now is strong, and other deals in the next week might motivate one of their rivals to go hard after Lucroy.

 

If not, I'd be much more okay with Stearns testing Lucroy's market again in the offseason or next summer rather than make his first blockbuster trade with the team a bad one.

[Eye Black]

Just a friendly reminder that our Lucroy Trade Deadline Poll will close in 24 hours. If you haven't already, go cast your vote.

[Austin Tatious]

I know there are some Brewers fans that think either Lucroy brings in a Kings ransom so he doesn't get dealt. I would be in the opposite camp. A deal needs to made sending Lucroy to some team.

 

I'm not suggesting taking pennies on the dollar but Lucroy's value was highest after the 2014 (near MVP) season. Yes, he is playing well now, but his value is not as high, as then just considering the amount of control that remains (1+ years now vs 3 years then). After the season, his value will be less than now.

 

Lucroy is the best method to bring in starting pitching prospects... The most expensive item to acquire out on the market.. Find the best offer and take it while you still can!

 

Cleveland can pound sand if they don't give up Tristan McKenzie or Brady Aiken. Those two pitchers are big risks as it is.

 

Multiple teams are after him. It's auction style bidding. Cleveland can stand pat and see how they do while the rest of the league makes additions.

[adambr2]

 

When this book was printed, prior to the 2008 season, LaPorta was rated the Brewers #1 prospect, Bryson was number 11, and Michael Brantley was number 24.

 

 

 

 

That seems crazy to me as I recall Brantley being more highly regarded than Bryson. The Indians passed on Lucroy, Lorenzo Cain, and Taylor Green for Brantley IIRC. Brantley must have been much higher after the 2008 season when Cleveland selected him.

[MadThinker88]

It could be argued that the cost of starting pitching has never been higher. Comparing a staff ace and reigning AL Cy Young award winner from 08 to Lucroy now is apples to oranges.

 

yes, value will need to be paid to get value. I personally would put a multi player/ top 100 prospect package together to make a run at Lucroy. That said, I highly doubt Cleveland makes a deal for Lucroy as they will view it as costing too much over the long run. It's not the way that they operate.

 

While the current starting rotation is well controlled, those controls would be ending by the time one or two of Aiken/ McKenzie/ Hillman/ others are about to arrive on the scene. They finally have some depth and high end talents in their system after spending years trying to trade for it. They have a core group of prospects that they will not deal. That still leaves them a pile of talent to go and make the smaller deal to fill in spots of need.

 

Consider this: you need a car. Why get a BMW at a Rolls-Royce cost when you can get an Audi at an Audi cost or Nissan at a Nissan cost???

[MadThinker88]

 

When this book was printed, prior to the 2008 season, LaPorta was rated the Brewers #1 prospect, Bryson was number 11, and Michael Brantley was number 24.

 

 

 

 

That seems crazy to me as I recall Brantley being more highly regarded than Bryson. The Indians passed on Lucroy, Lorenzo Cain, and Taylor Green for Brantley IIRC. Brantley must have been much higher after the 2008 season when Cleveland selected him.

 

Lucroy was NOT part of the equation in the CC trade although many Tribe fans (myself included) wish he would have been. Cleveland was making its trade to get a young catcher by sending Casey Blake & $$$ to LA Dodgers for Carlos Santana.

 

It was a 2 player PTBNL list. Cleveland choice if Breweres made the playoffs (Brantley) or Brewer pick (can never keep it straight Tyler Green or Mat Gamel). Thank god CC put the crew on his back and got you into the post-season...