Lucroy Trades/Proposals (part 3)

[Boomer5]

A few articles with a speculative look at trading Jonathan Lucroy...

 

Very interesting exercise from Baseball Prospectus, The GM Trade Game! Trading Jonathan Lucroy

 

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Fangraphs with Predicting the Trade Deadline Moves

 

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CBS Sports Dayn Perry looks at the significance of trading for a catcher this time of year, Amid Jonathan Lucroy trade rumors, what trading for a catcher mid-season means

 

Thanks. Fascinating read. It does show we are on the right track for the caliber of players we expect back for Luc.

[MrTPlush]

We are on the right track in the fact we could get a Zimmer/Gallo, but the depth of any trade may be less than some throw out there.

[brewcrewdue80]

We are on the right track in the fact we could get a Zimmer/Gallo, but the depth of any trade may be less than some throw out there.

 

Yeah trying to temper my expectations. I think if were netting a top 40prospecttalent then the return is reduced to 3 prospects. But if youre bbottom half top 100 to start, you get 4.

 

That link of an exercise, the consideration of a QO after 2017 isnt being addressed at all. The 3rd piece for Lucroy would seem to me to be about what youd potentially draft in the 27-34 range 1st rd.

The other factor ignored mostly is cost. 5.25mil for a 15-20mil production Catcher. Its like well you give up a Sheffield/Hillman type who's highest floor is of a RP. Well, 3/12million should afford you that type of RP in the offseason. Ready Opening day vs 3yrs from now. Things like that just dont seem to be applied. Its like if Lucroy were making 14million and you could kick in 5-8million, youd say the return improves. But since thats not even on the table?

[reillymcshane]

Which of these two Cleveland trade options would you take in exchange for Lucroy:

 

Option 1:

 

Zimmer or Frazier, plus Sheffield

 

Option 2:

 

Sheffield, Clevinger, Mejia and McKenzie

 

Can't pick neither, can't start swapping out guys or adding players. It's just the two options above.

[BallFour]

2 for sure

[MrTPlush]

Option 2 and by a decent margin. I like Zimmer a lot, but Option 2 provides a ton of upside. Option 2 also includes three high upside pitcher we could really use and a high upside catcher that has the defense to stick at catcher which is something else we really lack.

 

Zimmer and Frazier both have holes in their game and because of that both aren't really "can't miss" prospects. I also can't ignore the depth we have at the OF position. For those reasons I will go with the deal that gives me three pitchers and a catcher all with considerable upside.

[MilwaukeeBeers]

Option 2 and by a decent margin. I like Zimmer a lot, but Option 2 provides a ton of upside. Option 2 also includes three high upside pitcher we could really use and a high upside catcher that has the defense to stick at catcher which is something else we really lack.

 

Zimmer and Frazier both have holes in their game and because of that both aren't really "can't miss" prospects. I also can't ignore the depth we have at the OF position. For those reasons I will go with the deal that gives me three pitchers and a catcher all with considerable upside.

You raise good points, but I'm really not a fan of Clevinger or Sheffield as the arms coming back. If I had to I'd probably go for Option 2 just for Mckenzie and Mejia, but I wouldn't be happy about the other two.

[MilwaukeeBeers]

IMO if it's a trade with Texas I'd go for Gallo and lottery tickets. If it's a trade with Cleveland I go for depth and youth.

[MadThinker88]

I'Ve seen it in a few posts here and there related to considering any trade for Lucroy- the idea that whichever team gets him will be able to extend a qualifying offer after 2017.

 

There is a very good chance there will NOT be a qualifying offer system post the 2017 season. It hasn't worked the way the owners or the union thought it would and neither is happy with it.

 

As they start the collective bargaining process, the process of free agency compensation needs to be addressed again.

[splitterpfj]

I'Ve seen it in a few posts here and there related to considering any trade for Lucroy- the idea that whichever team gets him will be able to extend a qualifying offer after 2017.

 

There is a very good chance there will NOT be a qualifying offer system post the 2017 season. It hasn't worked the way the owners or the union thought it would and neither is happy with it.

 

As they start the collective bargaining process, the process of free agency compensation needs to be addressed again.

 

Everything I've read indicates that while the system may be tweaked from what they currently use, draft pick compensation will not disappear.

 

It's possible, all kinds of things are possible, since the new CBA has to be worked out, but that's one thing I expect to remain, in one form or another. I think the big issues this time around will be punishments for PED use, potentially raising the tax on big payrolls, and whether or not to have an international draft.

[pacopete4]

Tick tock Stearns. Tick tock.

[billymac]

Pretty sure the Starting Pitching market needs to get kick started and whether or not the Yanks are sellers before we get any action on Lucroy or Smith.Hopefully start seeing some big trades soon. Houston only 2.5 back of Texas now, Texas might be getting desperate real soon.

[jwill535]

Like others have mentioned, and judging by Sterns comments last night, I feel he has deals lined up but everyone is waiting for a couple other deals to beak the seal.

 

As for a trade, while starting pitching is needed, I really think an impact bat needs to come back to.

[MrTPlush]

Problem is for a lot of teams Lucroy isn't priority #1 and may be a fallback option. The Rangers would much prefer a big time starter and if the get that unlikely they have interest in obtaining Lucroy. Stearns probably can't get a team to finalize on Lucroy when their preferences have yet to be traded or those negotiations have yet to break down.

 

I'm sure Stearns would love to be hitting the accept button right now as much as anyone else. It's just not available yet.

[Eye Black]

As a hypothetical let's pretend the four offers below are presented as each teams "best and final" offer for Lucroy (no other Brewers' trade-chips involved). Which offer (if any) would you be excited about? Which offers would you be disappointed with?

 

Astros

David Paulino, RHP

Colin Moran, 3B

Franklin Perez, RHP

Miguelangel Sierra, SS

 

Indians

Triston McKenzie, RHP

Bobby Bradley, 1B

Yandy Diaz, 3B

 

Rangers

Luis Ortiz, RHP

Yohander Mendez, LHP

Leody Taveras, OF

 

Red Sox

Rafael Devers, 3B

Josh Ockimey, 1B

[Austin Tatious]

Like others have mentioned, and judging by Sterns comments last night, I feel he has deals lined up but everyone is waiting for a couple other deals to beak the seal.

 

As for a trade, while starting pitching is needed, I really think an impact bat needs to come back to.

 

Where were Stearns' comments? Is there a link to them?

[Eye Black]

Like others have mentioned, and judging by Sterns comments last night, I feel he has deals lined up but everyone is waiting for a couple other deals to beak the seal.

 

As for a trade, while starting pitching is needed, I really think an impact bat needs to come back to.

 

Where were Stearns' comments? Is there a link to them?

Here you go... Brewers GM David Stearns is active in trade talks

[Austin Tatious]

Thanks, Eye Black. I am in Chicago and my MLB pass forced me to watch the Cubs broadcast which is painful. I thought perhaps Stearns went into the booth for a bit. Usually Brewers website will excerpt the interviews and I didn't see anything.

[MadThinker88]

I'Ve seen it in a few posts here and there related to considering any trade for Lucroy- the idea that whichever team gets him will be able to extend a qualifying offer after 2017.

 

There is a very good chance there will NOT be a qualifying offer system post the 2017 season. It hasn't worked the way the owners or the union thought it would and neither is happy with it.

 

As they start the collective bargaining process, the process of free agency compensation needs to be addressed again.

 

Everything I've read indicates that while the system may be tweaked from what they currently use, draft pick compensation will not disappear.

 

It's possible, all kinds of things are possible, since the new CBA has to be worked out, but that's one thing I expect to remain, in one form or another. I think the big issues this time around will be punishments for PED use, potentially raising the tax on big payrolls, and whether or not to have an international draft.

 

I think we are in agreement. There will be something but we are not sure how it will be and the chance it is status quo is about nill....

[MadThinker88]

As a hypothetical let's pretend the four offers below are presented as each teams "best and final" offer for Lucroy (no other Brewers' trade-chips involved). Which offer (if any) would you be excited about? Which offers would you be disappointed with?

 

Astros

David Paulino, RHP

Colin Moran, 3B

Franklin Perez, RHP

Miguelangel Sierra, SS

 

Indians

Triston McKenzie, RHP

Bobby Bradley, 1B

Yandy Diaz, 3B

 

Rangers

Luis Ortiz, RHP

Yohander Mendez, LHP

Leody Taveras, OF

 

Red Sox

Rafael Devers, 3B

Josh Ockimey, 1B

 

Eye black - I'm a little suprised by that Cleveland package as it would be easier for Cleveland to handle then the one I put out there yesterday (mejia, Sheffield, Hillman). it only takes away 1 pitching prospect and allow them to use Mejia in a deal to someone else for a LHRP...

[MrTPlush]

As a hypothetical let's pretend the four offers below are presented as each teams "best and final" offer for Lucroy (no other Brewers' trade-chips involved). Which offer (if any) would you be excited about? Which offers would you be disappointed with?

 

Astros

David Paulino, RHP

Colin Moran, 3B

Franklin Perez, RHP

Miguelangel Sierra, SS

 

Indians

Triston McKenzie, RHP

Bobby Bradley, 1B

Yandy Diaz, 3B

 

Rangers

Luis Ortiz, RHP

Yohander Mendez, LHP

Leody Taveras, OF

 

Red Sox

Rafael Devers, 3B

Josh Ockimey, 1B

 

Indians offer is the worst in my opinion. I don't like Bradley and the other two aren't super special to make up for it.

 

Next is the Rangers. It really came down to which pitcher I liked more Ortiz or Paulino. Obviously I prefer Paulino.

 

Astros...see above. Mostly due to Paulino being my preference.

 

And Lucroy goes to the RED SOX. I usually want multiple high upside guys even if they are farther from the majors. However, in this case all the other deals didn't feel like they had enough high upside players so I would go with the uber elite prospect Devers. That being said I hope one of the other teams would up their offers because I don't want to put all my eggs in one basket.

[PeaveyFury]

 

Indians

Triston McKenzie, RHP

Bobby Bradley, 1B

Yandy Diaz, 3B

 

I'd much rather get a second arm rather than a guy like Diaz. If we do end up with a second position prospect, I'd much prefer it to be Mejia.

[reillymcshane]

Boston's Michael Kopech, who some have mentioned as a possible target in a Lucroy deal, threw 105 last week in a game. Two radar guns recorded the pitch at the same speed, so it wasn't a fluke.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/kopech-hits-105-mph-against-wilmington

 

I have read that the Sox don't want to deal Kopech after giving up Anderson, but who can believe what.

[mlloyd10]

Boston's Michael Kopech, who some have mentioned as a possible target in a Lucroy deal, threw 105 last week in a game. Two radar guns recorded the pitch at the same speed, so it wasn't a fluke.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/kopech-hits-105-mph-against-wilmington

 

I have read that the Sox don't want to deal Kopech after giving up Anderson, but who can believe what.

 

Only red flag about him is he was already suspended 50 games for failed drug test

[MrTPlush]

 

Indians

Triston McKenzie, RHP

Bobby Bradley, 1B

Yandy Diaz, 3B

 

I'd much rather get a second arm rather than a guy like Diaz. If we do end up with a second position prospect, I'd much prefer it to be Mejia.

 

Why not a fan of Diaz? Seems like he could hit for a high average, provide good OBP% skills, and play above average defense. He hasen't shown too much power, but the rest of his game is pretty nice. Not to mention he sounds like he is pretty versatile with the ability to play everything, but SS.

 

I would not mind him as a secondary piece.