Lucroy Trades/Proposals (part 3)

[Austin Tatious]

Good for Taylor Green. I believe McCalvy or one of the other beat writers had pointed out that Green was scouting.

 

I always liked Green. After some years of following prospects, it's a great reminder to look at the past. We had the likes of Mat Gamel, Green, Salome, Will Inman and others who didn't pan out due to injury or whatever. You can name others further in the past. I can remember seeing Randy Ready's stats in the Texas League in the 80s and getting excited. Or Bill Wegman as a starter, maybe at Stockton. But in that Taylor Grren era, we had that lefty reliever with good stuff who mentally flipped out and we got rid of. I was high on him but his name escapes me. Thorny was under consideration as a #3 starter. To be fair, the flip side is that other guys like Lo Cain, Brantley, et al emerged big time.

 

I will freely admit that I was wrong on Gamel. I loved the way he handled the bat. I'm going to say injuries got him, and I'll stick with that story. But, honestly who really knows what he'd be.

 

Green's name reminds me of prospects from years past and the cautiousness going forward in our expectations for our current crop. Let's hope the success rate is good but probably 2/3 of our top 30 won't be much.

 

The common thread in the franchise's history is there have not been enough developed TOR starters. Higuera. Sheets. Neither had longevity due to injuries. The really good franchises develop multiple top pitchers together and then have a tough rotation to deal with. Until that hurdle is crossed, our historical trends will likely not be broken.

[JohnBriggs12]

For Lucroy I think they need to get at least one piece back who'll be a productive major leaguer in 2017. That guy may never be part of a competitive Brewer team, but they still need to field a team next year and adding pieces that can be flipped 2-3 years from now is an ongoing process.

[Bnowell4evr]

Good for Taylor Green. I believe McCalvy or one of the other beat writers had pointed out that Green was scouting.

 

I always liked Green. After some years of following prospects, it's a great reminder to look at the past. We had the likes of Mat Gamel, Green, Salome, Will Inman and others who didn't pan out due to injury or whatever. You can name others further in the past. I can remember seeing Randy Ready's stats in the Texas League in the 80s and getting excited. Or Bill Wegman as a starter, maybe at Stockton. But in that Taylor Grren era, we had that lefty reliever with good stuff who mentally flipped out and we got rid of. I was high on him but his name escapes me. Thorny was under consideration as a #3 starter. To be fair, the flip side is that other guys like Lo Cain, Brantley, et al emerged big time.

 

I will freely admit that I was wrong on Gamel. I loved the way he handled the bat. I'm going to say injuries got him, and I'll stick with that story. But, honestly who really knows what he'd be.

 

Green's name reminds me of prospects from years past and the cautiousness going forward in our expectations for our current crop. Let's hope the success rate is good but probably 2/3 of our top 30 won't be much.

 

The common thread in the franchise's history is there have not been enough developed TOR starters. Higuera. Sheets. Neither had longevity due to injuries. The really good franchises develop multiple top pitchers together and then have a tough rotation to deal with. Until that hurdle is crossed, our historical trends will likely not be broken.

 

Zack Braddock? Manny Parra?

[Bnowell4evr]

To all those suggesting these multi player prospect packages from Cleveland to Milwaukee for Lucroy,

 

Consider the trade history/ track record of the Indians. They RARELY deal packages of prospects for major league talent. I found two... 2 such trades they made in the last 10 years.

In Dec2008 they sent away Chris Archer & 2 other pieces (all pitchers) to the Cubs for Mark DeRosa and as the 2009 fell apart, flipped DeRosa for 2 pitching prospects from the Cardinals (Chris Perez & Jess Todd).

The other deal was in 2011 at the deadline. 3 pitching prospects including 2 first round selections (Alex White and Drew Pomeranz) and catching prospect to Colorado for Ubaldo Jimenez.

 

Is it possible they put together a package for Lucroy? Yes. Just as it is possible one of us wins the next mega millions drawing if we bought a ticket. I suspect the odds of it happening are about the same.

 

I've written and suggested on this board that Will Smith is a more likely target for the Tribe. I stand by that still.

 

The main reason the Indians haven't made more trades in the last 10 year is that they've been awful for the majority of that span.

 

2006 - 78-84

2007 - 96-66

2008 - 81-81

2009 - 65-97

2010 - 69-93

2011 - 80-82

2012 - 68-94

2013 - 92-70

2014 - 85-77

2015 - 81-80

 

How many teams do you think would make a trade deadline deal when they're on pace to finish with 80 or more losses? The Indians time to win is now while they have all their pitchers under control.

[A Swing and A Drive]

 

Which hypothetical return package do you like best for Jonathan Lucroy and why?

 

Each package includes one position player and 2 pitchers.

 

Package A- Dodgers

RHP Brock Stewart http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=592779#/career/R/pitching/2016/ALL

1B Cody Bellinger http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=641355#/career/R/hitting/2016/ALL

RHP Chase De Jong http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=641355#/career/R/hitting/2016/ALL

 

Package B- Astros

RHP Joe Musgrove http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=605397#/career/R/pitching/2016/ALL

3B J.D. Davis http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=605397#/career/R/pitching/2016/ALL

RHP Albert Abreu http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=605397#/career/R/pitching/2016/ALL

 

Package C- Indians

RHP Triston McKenzie http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=663474#/career/R/pitching/2016/ALL

1B Bobby Bradley http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=663474#/career/R/pitching/2016/ALL

LHP Juan Hillman http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=663474#/career/R/pitching/2016/ALL

 

Package D- Rangers

RHP Luis Ortiz http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=663474#/career/R/pitching/2016/ALL

OF Leody Taveras http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=663474#/career/R/pitching/2016/ALL

RHP Ariel Jurado http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=663474#/career/R/pitching/2016/ALL

[adambr2]

As excited as I am about the idea of getting top tier prospects for Lucroy, I'm a little worried we aren't going to get a great package like we got for Gomez/Fiers.

 

I don't want Sterns to panic and lower his value of Lucroy. If he isn't traded at the deadline, it tells me that the offers for him weren't good enough. I'd be more disappointed if we got a mediocre package than if we hang on to him all year and try again in the offseason.

 

Heck, I think people are even undervaluing the comp pick. If we happen to have a bad season, get a comp for Lucroy, and get a competitive balance Comp A, we'd have a massive pool which could net us a couple of top ten guys. Plus, we'd get 1.5 years of Lucroy helping the younger guys ease into their roles.

 

I think it would be a massive disappointment to get a comp pick for Lucroy. It's hard to pin down the exactly value of a comp pick, but it's probably safe to assume that a guy picked in the 25-35 range on draft day, years away in development, probably has on average less than a 50/50 shot of even making it to the bigs.

[brewerfan82]

Building on how bad only getting a comp pick for Lucroy would be, here are some draft results from recent years:

 

- 2015 Comp Picks (picks 27-36) : 1 current Top 100 player (#95), 0 players have made the majors

- 2014 Comp Picks (picks 28-34) : 3 current Top 100 players (#63, #70, #94), 0 players have made the majors

- 2013 Comp Picks (picks 27-33) : 1 current Top 100 players (#32), 1 player has made the majors

- 2012 Picks 27-36 (diff. format) : 2 current Top 100 players (#13, #15), 5 players have made the majors

- 2011 Picks 27-36 (diff. format) : 1 current Top 100 players (#30), 5 players have made the majors

 

Not the most solid breakdown (the timing of when prospects get drafted to when they should be seen at the peak of their prospect status, etc., isn't shown super well here), but it's a quick and dirty way to see that you've got probably less than a 50% chance of getting a top 100 prospect at that point, and maybe a 50% chance of getting a guy that makes the majors and that doesn't mean they were any good when they got there (7 of those 11 players that have made the majors have a career WAR of 0.6 or less).

 

So even getting 1 prospect back in a trade that's already in the top 100 is probably significantly better than taking a chance on a comp pick. Since we're talking about multiple top 100 players including ones in the top 50, I think it would be incredibly bad to miss on this opportunity.

[adambr2]

Right. Losing a star for a comp pick is fine when you're competing, so we can justify letting Prince go for comp since we did win the division and compete in 2011. When you're rebuilding, you better get something for your best trade chips.

 

Now this certainly doesn't mean you take a bad deal, but we'll get a worthwhile deal for Lucroy. I find it impossible to believe that 1 1/2 years of one of the best catchers in baseball on a cheap contract won't garner a high bid from someone at the end of July.

 

There's still plenty of time to get a deal done, most blockbusters don't come this early. Remember when the Gomez trade to the Mets fell through at the last second last year? We basically had to start all over right near the deadline, and we still got a good deal done.

[monkeyman343434]

What would the Brewers have to chip in with Lucroy for the Indians to send back (similar package to Carlos and Fiers from last year - 2 hitters 2 pitchers):

 

Justus Sheffield

Triston Mckensie

Bobby Bradley

Francisco Mejia

 

Lucroy

Will Smith

[Austin Tatious]

Good for Taylor Green. I believe McCalvy or one of the other beat writers had pointed out that Green was scouting.

 

I always liked Green. After some years of following prospects, it's a great reminder to look at the past. We had the likes of Mat Gamel, Green, Salome, Will Inman and others who didn't pan out due to injury or whatever. You can name others further in the past. I can remember seeing Randy Ready's stats in the Texas League in the 80s and getting excited. Or Bill Wegman as a starter, maybe at Stockton. But in that Taylor Grren era, we had that lefty reliever with good stuff who mentally flipped out and we got rid of. I was high on him but his name escapes me. Thorny was under consideration as a #3 starter. To be fair, the flip side is that other guys like Lo Cain, Brantley, et al emerged big time.

 

I will freely admit that I was wrong on Gamel. I loved the way he handled the bat. I'm going to say injuries got him, and I'll stick with that story. But, honestly who really knows what he'd be.

 

Green's name reminds me of prospects from years past and the cautiousness going forward in our expectations for our current crop. Let's hope the success rate is good but probably 2/3 of our top 30 won't be much.

 

The common thread in the franchise's history is there have not been enough developed TOR starters. Higuera. Sheets. Neither had longevity due to injuries. The really good franchises develop multiple top pitchers together and then have a tough rotation to deal with. Until that hurdle is crossed, our historical trends will likely not be broken.

 

Zack Braddock? Manny Parra?

 

 

Thanks, good call. I meant Braddock. Man, I had high hopes for him as a lefty reliever. I liked his stuff. He seemed to fall off the deep end, mentally.

[nate82]

Don't be surprised if Lucroy is traded to the Braves. While the Braves are not competitive this year they are looking to be putting a competitive team on the field next year when they open their new stadium. Plus with the young pitching staff that they have getting a veteran catcher like Lucroy will be something they will be looking for. I don't see the Braves trading Teheran or more accurately I don't see a team giving up their #1,2, and 3 prospects plus more to get Teheran so he is going to be in their rotation next year.

 

The Braves are going to be big spenders in the up coming free agency and they are going to be the ones making the biggest noise during the winter meetings.

 

If the Braves do the trade during the deadline:

 

Brewers send: Lucroy and Gennett

 

Braves send: Kolby Allard or Ozzie Albies, Lucas Sims or Mike Soroka and Rio Ruiz

 

Why the Braves do this Dansby Swanson will be on the Braves team next year and they are opening up a new stadium next year. I think the Braves are going to try and get Lucroy before the off season when they will have to compete with more teams. Right now the Braves are dealing with a reluctant Rangers team in parting with their prospects an Indians team that looks to be competitive but may miss the playoffs and finally the Red Sox who are looking for pitching right now but if they can't find it will go with a bat and Lucroy fits here as they are set at nearly every other position.

 

The other surprise team that could be in on Lucroy are the Astros but like the Indians they may not be a factor in the playoff race.

[splitterpfj]

The other surprise team that could be in on Lucroy are the Astros but like the Indians they may not be a factor in the playoff race.

 

If Lucroy goes to Houston, I won't consider that a surprise. They've got a shot this year, but they should have a shot next year too, so Lucroy would be an investment in both seasons.

[MadThinker88]

And...wouldn't it be ironic if the Indians were our trading partner for Lucroy, considering it was these two teams that struck a major deal back in 2008 when it was the Brewers that were in desperation to finally make it back to the postseason and sent a big package for CC.

 

What's even more ironic is that Cleveland actually could have gotten Lucroy in the Sabathia deal. Along with Laporta and the pitchers they had a choice of four players (I think it was a ptbnl type thing). The options were Cain, Brantley, Lucroy or Taylor Green if I'm remembering correctly.

 

It was Brantley if the Crew made the playoffs.

It was either Gamel or Green (don't recall which one) if the Crew missed the '08 playoffs.

 

indians GM Shapiro was getting roasted in Cleveland for letting the PTBNL be determined by the Crew's finish...

[MadThinker88]

To all those suggesting these multi player prospect packages from Cleveland to Milwaukee for Lucroy,

 

Consider the trade history/ track record of the Indians. They RARELY deal packages of prospects for major league talent. I found two... 2 such trades they made in the last 10 years.

In Dec2008 they sent away Chris Archer & 2 other pieces (all pitchers) to the Cubs for Mark DeRosa and as the 2009 fell apart, flipped DeRosa for 2 pitching prospects from the Cardinals (Chris Perez & Jess Todd).

The other deal was in 2011 at the deadline. 3 pitching prospects including 2 first round selections (Alex White and Drew Pomeranz) and catching prospect to Colorado for Ubaldo Jimenez.

 

Is it possible they put together a package for Lucroy? Yes. Just as it is possible one of us wins the next mega millions drawing if we bought a ticket. I suspect the odds of it happening are about the same.

 

I've written and suggested on this board that Will Smith is a more likely target for the Tribe. I stand by that still.

 

The main reason the Indians haven't made more trades in the last 10 year is that they've been awful for the majority of that span.

 

2006 - 78-84

2007 - 96-66

2008 - 81-81

2009 - 65-97

2010 - 69-93

2011 - 80-82

2012 - 68-94

2013 - 92-70

2014 - 85-77

2015 - 81-80

 

How many teams do you think would make a trade deadline deal when they're on pace to finish with 80 or more losses? The Indians time to win is now while they have all their pitchers under control.

 

So let's take it back to 1994. I think we can agree the Tribe was successful and competi editing the mid to late 90s. In 95 when they went to get the that extra starting pitcher (Ken Hil), the prospect package was headlined by David Bell. When the Tribe went to get John Smiley, that package was headlined by Danny Graves.. When they went to get Dave Burba they gave up only Sesn Casey. For Ricardo Rincon (yes of Moneyball fame) they gave up Brian Giles only.

 

Thru all this they refused to increase their offer package to get the likes of Pedro Martinez (they would have had to part with Jaret Wright & said no, definition of hand palm to forehead), Curt Schilling, Randy Johnson, Chuck Knoblauch.

 

Cleveland has finally realized they are small market and to be competitive, they need the farm system to keep producing talent, in successive waves, not a handful and then 5 or more years before another handful..

[FVBrewerFan]

So, because they didn't things a certain way 22 years ago they won't do it now?

[Bnowell4evr]

To all those suggesting these multi player prospect packages from Cleveland to Milwaukee for Lucroy,

 

Consider the trade history/ track record of the Indians. They RARELY deal packages of prospects for major league talent. I found two... 2 such trades they made in the last 10 years.

In Dec2008 they sent away Chris Archer & 2 other pieces (all pitchers) to the Cubs for Mark DeRosa and as the 2009 fell apart, flipped DeRosa for 2 pitching prospects from the Cardinals (Chris Perez & Jess Todd).

The other deal was in 2011 at the deadline. 3 pitching prospects including 2 first round selections (Alex White and Drew Pomeranz) and catching prospect to Colorado for Ubaldo Jimenez.

 

Is it possible they put together a package for Lucroy? Yes. Just as it is possible one of us wins the next mega millions drawing if we bought a ticket. I suspect the odds of it happening are about the same.

 

I've written and suggested on this board that Will Smith is a more likely target for the Tribe. I stand by that still.

 

The main reason the Indians haven't made more trades in the last 10 year is that they've been awful for the majority of that span.

 

2006 - 78-84

2007 - 96-66

2008 - 81-81

2009 - 65-97

2010 - 69-93

2011 - 80-82

2012 - 68-94

2013 - 92-70

2014 - 85-77

2015 - 81-80

 

How many teams do you think would make a trade deadline deal when they're on pace to finish with 80 or more losses? The Indians time to win is now while they have all their pitchers under control.

 

So let's take it back to 1994. I think we can agree the Tribe was successful and competi editing the mid to late 90s. In 95 when they went to get the that extra starting pitcher (Ken Hil), the prospect package was headlined by David Bell. When the Tribe went to get John Smiley, that package was headlined by Danny Graves.. When they went to get Dave Burba they gave up only Sesn Casey. For Ricardo Rincon (yes of Moneyball fame) they gave up Brian Giles only.

 

Thru all this they refused to increase their offer package to get the likes of Pedro Martinez (they would have had to part with Jaret Wright & said no, definition of hand palm to forehead), Curt Schilling, Randy Johnson, Chuck Knoblauch.

 

Cleveland has finally realized they are small market and to be competitive, they need the farm system to keep producing talent, in successive waves, not a handful and then 5 or more years before another handful..

 

I can't disagree more with this logic, especially when you're judging a team based on what a previous GM did. That's like assuming David Stearns would trade Lucroy for current major league players because that's what Doug Melvin did with Carlos Lee. Or the Brewers would never have traded for CC Sabathia or Zack Greinke because they hadn't made a trade like that since the 80's. Baseball is all about striking while your window is open, especially for a small market team. The Indians are in a rare position where they're in 1st place and have a loaded system (7 BA mid season top 100). Now that doesn't mean they will trade for Lucroy but there's absolutely no way that Mike Chernoff sits idle and watches other teams around him improve. The few fans that actually attend the games in Cleveland would chase him out of town with a pitchfork.

[brewcrewdue80]

What would the Brewers have to chip in with Lucroy for the Indians to send back (similar package to Carlos and Fiers from last year - 2 hitters 2 pitchers):

 

Justus Sheffield

Triston Mckensie

Bobby Bradley

Francisco Mejia

 

Lucroy

Will Smith

 

Sorry, no. Maybe for Marinez or a MiLB RP. Smith imo is a Superstar in the making as a RP. Smith becoming the next Wade Davis.

Sheffield im not buying in to. And this deal doesnt include Bradley or Frazier or Aiken. These are All-Stars 2 and not getting a #1,2 best prospects for these two combined isnt going to sell this fan base. We may have an idea McKenzie or Bradleys potential. But Majority Brewerfans are losing 2faces of the franchise Smith more via Facebook&name fame. And getting back players that even at their ceiling? Are they future faces of the franchise?

[A Swing and A Drive]

I think you are overrating Will Smith's on field trade value.

 

Additionally, I think you are VASTLY overrating Will Smith's Facebook(??!) and name fame value.

[jerichoholicninja]

Will Smith the next Wade Davis? Smith is a decent reliever but while he's not a LOOGY, he's not a face anybody guy as evidenced by the .762 OPS that RHB have against him.

[beekay414]

Will Smith the next Wade Davis? Smith is a decent reliever but while he's not a LOOGY, he's not a face anybody guy as evidenced by the .762 OPS that RHB have against him.

 

Smith posted an OPS of .545 vs RHB last year, compared to a .785 vs LHB. 2014 was a polar opposite. I don't agree with him at all about Smith being a Wade Davis type but he's really hard to peg down with labels, being completely honest.

[billymac]

With Espinoza dealt to the Padres, not too thrilled with a Red Sox trade now with Luc

[MrTPlush]

With Espinoza dealt to the Padres, not too thrilled with a Red Sox trade now with Luc

 

Yup, that was probably their only major move of the deadline.

[wildcat2237]

With Espinoza dealt to the Padres, not too thrilled with a Red Sox trade now with Luc

 

Yup, that was probably their only major move of the deadline.

 

In all seriousness, the Red Sox may be all in. If they are, I could see Lucroy and Jeffress to the Red Sox for a package centered around Moncada or Andrew Benintendi, with Rafael Devers as piece #2. It's pretty well known that Dave Dombrowski is willing to use the farm system to win now. He is the anti-Theo Epstein.

[mattyo]

With Espinoza dealt to the Padres, not too thrilled with a Red Sox trade now with Luc

 

Yup, that was probably their only major move of the deadline.

 

In all seriousness, the Red Sox may be all in. If they are, I could see Lucroy and Jeffress to the Red Sox for a package centered around Moncada or Andrew Benintendi, with Rafael Devers as piece #2. It's pretty well known that Dave Dombrowski is willing to use the farm system to win now. He is the anti-Theo Epstein.

 

 

I was thinking the same thing. Dombrowski has a long history of trading top prospects for proven major league talent, and he's shored up the SP spot the Red Sox were in need of with this trade, but they still have a hole at catcher.

 

As far as Lucroy and Jeffress for Moncada AND Devers...for sure not. Lucroy and Jeffress for Moncada alone would be absolutely MASSIVE for our future. Maybe even Jimmy Nelson instead of Jeffress to further shore up their SP. Imagine a Moncada and Arcia middle infield. A guy can dream right...

[CheezWizHed]

It was either Gamel or Green (don't recall which one) if the Crew missed the '08 playoffs

 

Green was the other PTBNL option, but I don't think the terms were that clear (to the public at least). As far as we knew, it was just people on a PTBNL list and they had their pick.