Lucroy Trades/Proposals (part 3)

[A Swing and A Drive]

Jonathan Lucroy’s Realistic trade partners- Through June 15

 

Team Record Games out of playoff spot Current Catcher

Red Sox 37-27 - Vazquez

Rays 31-32 3.5 Casalli

Yankees 31-34 4.5 B.McCann

Indians 35-30 - Gomes

Tigers 33-32 2.0 J.McCann

White Sox 33-33 2.5 Flowers

Rangers 41-25 - Chirinos

Mariners 34-31 1.5 Ianetta

Astros 32-35 4.5 Castro

Nationals 41-25 - Ramos

Mets 35-29 0.5 D’Anaund

Cubs 44-20 - Montero

Pirates 33-32 2.0 Cervelli-INJ

Dodgers 35-32 1.0 Grandal

Dbacks 29-39 7.5 Castillo

 

Red Sox

 

Potential Trade Headliner

3B Rafael Devers

 

Second Tier Prospects of interest

LHP Brian Johnson, LHP Henry Owens, LHP Trey Ball

 

Likely Untouchables

2B Yoan Moncada, OF Andrew Benintendi, RHP Anderson Espinosa

 

Probability rating out of 10: 4

 

Comments: I think the Red Sox will prioritize starting pitching over a catcher upgrade, as there offense is firing on all cylinders.

 

Rays

 

Potential Trade Headliner

RHP Brent Honeywell, RHP Jacob Faria

 

Second Tier Prospects of interest

1B Casey Gillaspie, 1B Jake Bauers, SS Daniel Robertson, RHP Taylor Guerreri, SS Willy Adames

 

Likely Untouchables

LHP Blake Snell

 

Probability rating out of 10: 5

 

Comments: I don’t think the Rays will stay in the playoff race long enough to make such a bold move like acquiring Lucory. It is also a move that goes against their track record of trades.

 

Yankees

 

Potential Trade Headliner

C Gary Sanchez

 

Second Tier Prospects of interest

OF Aaron Judge, RHP James Kaprielian, RHP Domingo Acevedo, LHP Ian Clarkin, RHP Drew Finley

 

Likely Untouchables

SS Jorge Mateo

 

Probability rating out of 10: 3

 

Comments: The Yankees are the ones who are known to make bold moves like this one, and they could certainly look to use Lucroy as 1B and platoon him with McCann/DH. However, they may likely fall out of race soon and sell off one of their relievers instead of parting with young talent.

 

Indians

 

Potential Trade Headliner

1B Bobby Bradley, OF Bradley Zimmer

 

Second Tier Prospects of interest

LHP Rob Kaminsky, LHP Justus Sheffield, RHP Triston McKenzie, LHP Juan Hillman

 

Likely Untouchables

OF Clint Frazier, LHP Brady Aiken

 

Probability rating out of 10: 5

 

Comments: The Indians could upgrade from Gomes if they are fighting for the division title. Bradley would make a nice headliner with a couple of lower level, high upside arms like Sheffield or McKenzie in the mix as well. They may be comfortable enough with Yan Gomes, their current catcher, however.

 

Tigers

 

Potential Trade Headliner

LHP Daniel Norris

 

Second Tier Prospects of interest

RHP Beau Burrows, LHP Tyler Alexander, OF Steven Moya, SS/3B JaCoby Jones

 

Likely Untouchables

No One

 

Probability rating out of 10: 7

 

Comments: The Tigers are in win now mode and have a track record using their farm to make bold trade deadline moves to improve their MLB team. With a wide-open AL Central and no dominant AL club, I can see the Tigers making a play for Lucroy.

 

White Sox

 

Potential Trade Headliner

RHP Carson Fulmer

 

Second Tier Prospects of interest

RHP Spencer Adams, LHP Tyler Danish, LHP Jordan Guerrero

 

Likely Untouchables

SS Tim Anderson

 

Probability rating out of 10: 3

 

Comments: The White Sox already made a play to acquire SP James Shields, so I think that it signals that they are all in to win this season. They may be hesitant to part with Fulmer though, as he may be able to help in the bullpen during a pennant race himself. The rest of their system is weak at the top.

 

Rangers

 

Potential Trade Headliner

OF Lewis Brinson

 

Second Tier Prospects of interest

RHP Luis Ortiz, RHP Dillon Tate, RHP Mike Matuella, RHP Ariel Jurado, LHP Yohander Mendez

 

Likely Untouchables

3B/1B/OF Joey Gallo

 

Probability rating out of 10: 6

 

Comments: If the Rangers were serious about acquiring Lucroy, they surely would have made a play for him after their starting catcher Robinson Chirinos was out a month due to injury. He’s heathly now and they seem happy with him. With that said, the Rangers could opt for an upgrade to Lucroy and have the prospects to likely get the job done.

 

Mariners

 

Potential Trade Headliner

OF Tyler O’Neil

 

Second Tier Prospects of interest

RHP Nick Niedert, SS Drew Jackson, C Mike Zunino, 1B DJ Peterson, OF Alex Jackson, RHP Edwin Diaz, RHP Andrew Moore

 

Likely Untouchables

No One

 

Probability rating out of 10: 2

 

Comments: The Mariners could surely upgrade from Chris Iannetta behind the dish, but they seem to lack that headlining prospect that could land a player of Lucroy’s caliber. Zunino, Peterson and Jackson have all lost some prospect luster as well.

 

Astros

 

Potential Trade Headliner

1B AJ Reed

 

Second Tier Prospects of interest

RHP Joe Musgrove, RHP Francis Martes, OF Daz Cameron, OF Derek Fisher, 3B J.D. Davis

 

Likely Untouchables

SS/3B Alex Bregman

 

Probability rating out of 10: 4

 

Comments: The Astros after a poor start are slowly climbing back into contention. They would match up well with the Brewers in a Lucroy deal, especially with Sterns familiar with their farm system. The problem is that after getting burned in the Gomez and Giles trades, they may be somewhat gun shy. That and if AJ Reed is actually in the “untouchable” column for them, I can’t see a good headliner to land Jonathan.

 

Nationals

 

Potential Trade Headliner

OF Victor Robles

 

Second Tier Prospects of interest

RHP Reynaldo Lopez, RHP Erik Fedde, RHP Austin Voth, 3B Drew Ward

 

Likely Untouchables

RHP Lucas Giolito, SS Trea Turner

 

Probability rating out of 10: 1

 

Comments: They are rolling in 1st place and are surely happy with their current catcher Wilson Ramos. However, if they decide to become players for Lucroy, they likely have some attractive pieces in their farm. However, if Sterns says the words Giolito or Turner, that click he will hear is the phone hanging up.

 

Mets

 

Potential Trade Headliner

RHP Matt Harvey

 

Second Tier Prospects of interest

RHP Zach Wheeler, 1B Dominic Smith, SS Ahmed Rosario, RHP Robert Gsellman

 

Likely Untouchables

LHP Steven Matz

 

Probability rating out of 10: 4

 

Comments: With Wright requiring neck surgery, they may be interested in Hill as part of a potential deal. However, the Mets seem to be rolling with young, oft-injured catcher Travis D’Anaud. Despite early stuggles, they likely won’t part with Harvey and Wheeler does not have enough value to headline a Lucroy deal.

 

Cubs

 

Potential Trade Headliner

3B Javier Baez, OF/1B/C Kyle Schwarber

 

Second Tier Prospects of interest

RHP Dylan Cease, OF Alberta Almora, RHP Duane Underwood

 

Likely Untouchables

OF Greybar Torres, OF Eloy Jimenez

 

Probability rating out of 10: 4

 

Comments: The Cubs need zero help on offense and would likely look for pitching help at the deadline. They also just promoted top catching prospect Wilson Contreras. I think it would take a Contreras flop AND a Montero injury to get the Cubs seriously interested at this point.

 

Pirates

 

Potential Trade Headliner

OF Austin Meadows

 

Second Tier Prospects of interest

RHP Mitch Keller, 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes, RHP Yeudy Garcia, LHP Steven Brault

 

Likely Untouchables

RHP Tyler Glasnow, RHP Jameson Taillon

 

Probability rating out of 10: 2

 

Comments: Pirates C Cervelli is on the DL, but should be back. If he has any setbacks and the Pirates get hot, they could be players for Lucroy. However, with the Cubs running away with the division, it’s hard to see them giving up a lot of talent for right to lose the Wild Card game again.

 

Dodgers

 

Potential Trade Headliner

RHP Jose De Leon, RHP Grant Holmes

 

Second Tier Prospects of interest

RHP Walker Buehler, OF/1B Cody Bellinger, OF Alex Verdugo, RHP Brock Stewart, RHP Frankie Montas, 2B Willie Calhoun

 

Likely Untouchables

LHP Julio Urias, RHP Yadiel Alvarez

 

Probability rating out of 10: 8

 

Comments: The Dodgers can’t waste many more years of Kershaw’s prime and have the farm to match up well with the Brewers via trade. They have Grandal and Barnes at C but I can see them being aggressive this year if they can stay neck and neck with the Giants for the NL West.

 

Diamondbacks

 

Potential Trade Headliner

3B/2B Brandon Drury

 

Second Tier Prospects of interest

RHP Braden Shipley, OF/1B Pete O’Brien, LHP Alex Young, LHP Cody Reed

 

Likely Untouchables

No One with Dave Stewart at the helm!

 

Probability rating out of 10: 1

 

Comments: The Diamondbacks would need to catch fire in the next month to get back into contender status. If it happens, Dave Stewart should be on Sterns speed dial. Realistically, the Dbacks will become sellers themselves and look to move players like Castillo/Ziegler.

 

Conclusion:

 

Based off my analysis, the Dodgers, Tigers, Rangers, Rays and Indians match up best for a potential trade for Brewers catcher Jonathan Lucroy before this years July 31st trade deadline. A dark horse candidate could emerge, but hopefully the market for Luc is flush with potential suitors.

 

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Continued from:

 

viewtopic.php?p=989587#p989587

 

Original Lead:

 

viewtopic.php?f=66&t=33647

[Boomer5]

The Mets are not a match at all. I cant imagine why they would trade one of their key MLB starting pitchers?

 

Flores and Wheeler are not headliners for a guy like Luc on a team that is 2-3 years from contending.

 

The Red Sox, Dodgers, and Rangers are the best bets IMHO.

[splitterpfj]

The Mets are not a match at all. I cant imagine why they would trade one of their key MLB starting pitchers?

 

For example, they were just swept by the Braves.

 

This is a team that needs to make significant improvements to its lineup, and it has one obvious strength to deal from.

 

The Mets are backwards, usually a team has to get arms to get over the top - they simply do not score enough to support the pitching they've assembled. The farm system isn't ready to provide significant help, they claim they can't take on a big contract, and at that Yoenis Cespedes can opt out of his contract after the season.

 

Wheeler's nice, but he's not amazing, and he won't have time to prove much before the deadline, to raise his trade value.

 

Honestly, the Mets either have to keep what they've got, and hope like crazy, or they have to deal an arm to fix what's broken.

[BrewCrewBlueDevil]

Pretty similar expectations from all teams, a stud position playing prospect, a high upside, controllable young pitcher and a catcher to fill the LuCroy void. Throw in a reliever not named Smith and you can get the player in parentheses. I don't think I am over or underestimating estimating LuCroy's value. If so, I like the Ranger's package best.

 

Red Sox: Devers and Owens; Vazquez (Ball or Johnson)

Rangers: Brinson and Tate; Nicholas (Matuella or Ortiz)

Dodgers: Bellinger and Deleon; Grandal (Buehler or Montaz)

[Outlander]

Jonathan Lucroy’s Realistic trade partners- Through June 15

 

Mariners

 

Potential Trade Headliner

OF Tyler O’Neil

 

Second Tier Prospects of interest

RHP Nick Niedert, SS Drew Jackson, C Mike Zunino, 1B DJ Peterson, OF Alex Jackson

 

Likely Untouchables

No One

 

Probability rating out of 10: 2

 

Comments: The Mariners could surely upgrade from Chris Iannetta behind the dish, but they seem to lack that headlining prospect that could land a player of Lucroy’s caliber. Zunino, Peterson and Jackson have all lost some prospect luster as well.

 

Any reason for not mentioning Edwin Diaz? I think if the Mariners parted with him a deal could get done.

[Boomer5]

The Mets are not a match at all. I cant imagine why they would trade one of their key MLB starting pitchers?

 

For example, they were just swept by the Braves.

 

This is a team that needs to make significant improvements to its lineup, and it has one obvious strength to deal from.

 

The Mets are backwards, usually a team has to get arms to get over the top - they simply do not score enough to support the pitching they've assembled. The farm system isn't ready to provide significant help, they claim they can't take on a big contract, and at that Yoenis Cespedes can opt out of his contract after the season.

 

Wheeler's nice, but he's not amazing, and he won't have time to prove much before the deadline, to raise his trade value.

 

Honestly, the Mets either have to keep what they've got, and hope like crazy, or they have to deal an arm to fix what's broken.

 

I get that they are a broken team and I get why they would want Luc, but if they trade Matz for Luc they will have made their MLB rotation weaker. Maybe Wheeler fills Matz spot, maybe not but Matz is a significant contributor to their MLB roster and one of the best young pitchers in baseball.

 

Of course I would take Matz and if the Mets are dumb enough to trade him, Id take it in a second.

[splitterpfj]

I mentioned earlier, i think the pitcher the Mets should deal is Matt Harvey.

 

The reason .... he is the closest to free agency - they keep as much team control as possible, and if they're going to hope on Wheeler, what's the difference between Harvey and Matz, it's still a hope.

 

I'm sure the Mets will try to use Wheeler, and that does make some sense for them, but I also think teams will have some trouble matching up on a Wheeler trade if it's for a star player, not just a good one. The "opposing GM" has to guess what he's getting, while giving a known commodity.

 

I think the biggest obstacle for the Brewers and the Mets is D'Arnaud - if he somehow looks good, they'll look to upgrade a different position.

 

If the Brewers do make a deal for one of the Mets' pitchers, I think the intent should be to then trade that pitcher sometime in the next year, for the package of prospects you had hoped to get for Lucroy (betting on the assumption that there would be more bidders, since it's pitcher).

 

EDIT: If the Brewers were to get Matz, that wouldn't be the case, I'd want them to build around him - I'm going with the assumption that Matz is unattainable.

[Boomer5]

That makes the deal more complex for the Brewers. They need to hope Wheeler is the guy they hope he is, and they need to hope Harvey can come back to the "Dark Knight" in order to trade them down the road.

 

Not impossible but not ideal. Its kind of like a big brother version of the trade for Chase Anderson. The Brewers didnt have much use for him but I guess they assumed he could be a flip candidate?

 

For Wheeler, Im not sure I would give them much more than Carter + spares, certainly not Luc. As for Harvey, i know he can be great but it seems like a guy that wont want to be here and we don't really want him in the big picture. How soon could they flip him? This year? Next year?

[reillymcshane]

I'll put my two cents in about Matz (and the other Mets pitchers).

 

The Mets have a really good rotation right now, but they lack depth. If they trade a guy like Matz - who is still a rookie - they really compromise things for themselves over the next few years. I guess they can keep hoping Bartolo Colon keeps pitching well, but that's probably not wise.

 

Matz, Harvey, DeGroom, Syndergaard, Wheeler. That's a heck of a rotation for the rest of the decade. Otherwise, the Mets have one pitcher in their Top 10 list on MLB Pipeline - and he's out for the year with TJ surgery. They did draft a college pitcher this year, but that's a couple of year project at least to get him to the majors.

 

Lucroy would be perfect for them, but I don't see the Brewers taking a combination of lesser minor leaguers, and I just don't see the Mets giving up a guy like Matz. He's too important for their future.

 

I believe the Mets will roll the dice and go with smaller moves.

 

They'll make some internal moves - bring up Nimmo, for instance, and hope the that d'Arnaud can come back and stay healthy, and hope that Granderson improves on his lackluster year. Then they'll do more minor moves - I could see targeting a guy like Aaron Hill, for example. Their big problem is not power, but just getting baserunners, so a guy getting on a .350 clip is pretty attractive.

 

It never hurts to ask for a guy like Matz, but I don't think the Mets will deal him. Just my guess.

[jerichoholicninja]

The Mets pitching discussion reminds me of something a wise friend of mine once said (although it was about defense, not pitching) - It doesn't matter how good your pitching is if you can't score runs.

 

The Mets would be foolish not to trade one of their starters for a legitimate offensive upgrade. That hitter helps the team everyday, one starter helps once every five days. Harvey, deGrom, and Wheeler have all already had TJ, most likely one of those guys is on borrowed time. With the organization's current financial situation none of these guys are resigning and given their collective health history it's probably not a good idea to do so anyway. And in recent history, having a dominant starting rotation has really meant nothing in terms of winning a championship.

 

I really have no opinion on a trade with the Brewers but the Mets really need to do something about that offense if they want any chance this year and trading a starter will get them the best return.

[splitterpfj]

There's this:

 

http://nypost.com/2016/06/17/matt-harvey-alarms-go-off-as-nls-worst-team-batters-him/

 

And this:

 

http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2016/06/20/palladino-mets-steven-matz-zack-wheeler/

[1992casey]

The Mets would be foolish not to trade one of their starters for a legitimate offensive upgrade. That hitter helps the team everyday, one starter helps once every five days.

 

I don't remember the data used to demonstrate this anymore, but apparently, a starting pitcher who goes 200 innings offers a slightly larger contribution than an everyday offensive player.

[MilwaukeeBeers]

Can say I don't like Norris, Harvey, Wheeler as headliners

[MrTPlush]

They are not trading an elite starter for a year and two months of Lucroy. The value difference is massive and Lucroy's impact would be greatly reduced since they are losing Matz.

 

Trading Harvey or Wheeler for prospects to get their offense or to get prospects to trade for offense is much more realistic. Trading Matz for Lucroy...forget about it. It would make more sense to trade Matz for prospects and then trade less than half of that haul to get Lucroy.

[billymac]

Mets just simply are not a good match for Lucroy unless a third team is involved. Braun/Hill/Relievers would be doable with the Mets farm system, not Lucroy.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Mets just simply are not a good match for Lucroy unless a third team is involved. Braun/Hill/Relievers would be doable with the Mets farm system, not Lucroy.

 

I agree. Mets are not a good match. Plus I still have a bad taste in my mouth after the Gomez shenanigans. Sure glad they pulled out of that deal, but I say let's not "go there" again.

 

There should be plenty of potential other matches for a Lucroy trade.

[endaround]

The Mets really need a 1B/ corner OF upgrade more than a catcher. And given those are much cheaper (be they Braun, Bruce, Beltran,etc) than Lucroy they make much more sense than giving up an ace pitcher.

[Lee16]

I think the Mets are a fine trade target...for Ryan Braun. They need an outfielder, they need offense, and Cespedes is probably gone after this year. Braun and Garza for Matz.

[MillerParkSouth]

Stearns would get GM of the year and the Mets GM would get fired for that trade. They wouldn't do Braun for Matz straight up and Garza has negative value at this point.

[logan82]

Yeah, Garza sucks.

[superfly]

I hope the anti Harvey people are solely basing their decision on money he'd demand in a couple years, because you're out of your minds otherwise to not think that would be a winning deal for us.

[Lee16]

I think we as Brewer fans sell Garza a little short just because he was so terrible last year and had such a lousy attitude about it. He is only 32, he has pitched 10 years and had 1 bad one, last year. The other 9 years of his body of work are actually not bad, at all. Even in this years very, very tiny sample size, he has been serviceable. The Mets have to understand that to get something, you need to deal from strength. Their strength is pitching. If they get rid of an arm, say Matz, they need one back for this year at least, Garza. Braun is an upgrade for them with the bat and under control for a while. They need a 3B as well, throw in Hill and eat some money if needed.

[billymac]

I'm really hoping the Astros continue to play well the next couple weeks. Luhnow came out earlier this season and said they need to be hovering around .500 at the end of June in order to make significant moves. They are sitting 1 game back of .500 and 4 games out of the wildcard and won 7 of their last 8. Their starting pitching hasn't been great, been better of late, they have 10 blown saves this year, so they could use some reliever help and obviously use a catching upgrade.

 

Some people mentioned that their front office might be gun shy to deal with the Brewers as the last couple trades/Brewer pickups have been looking better for the Crew, but I think Lucroy is a different story. He is playing at an All Star level right now. When we traded Gomez, he wasn't having a great year by any means. You add Lucroy and a back end reliever and this team is much better overall and primed for a playoff race. Astros could trade away some prospects and still have a deep farm system and no better person to pick and choose which ones are the most valuable in a return than Stearns.

 

Can the Rangers rely on their catchers to play far above their heads the rest of the season and into the playoffs? Leak some info out about trade discussions and we could have a nice bidding war between the rival clubs.

 

If I had a choice on who to deal Lucroy to:

1. Rangers

2. Astros

3. Dodgers

4. Boston

[MrTPlush]

Two thoughts:

 

Harvey is a no for a few reasons. He has been iffy this year and we could only only control him through 2018. Can we even be a .500 team in 2018? No thanks I am not taking that risk.

 

Matt Garza is probably the best pitcher on this team. Has one bad season and everyone thinks he is washed up. I think you guys just hated him before anyway.

[brewcrewdue80]

That is a roundabout way for their pitching staff. Garza replaces Matz, Garza replaces Bartolo next season. Wheeler pitches full season next season.

 

Oh wait nevermind. Matz left his last start with elbow tightness. Injured risk.

 

http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2016/06/20/palladino-mets-steven-matz-zack-wheeler/