Breakdown of Potential Suitors in Jonathan Lucroy Trade

[A Swing and A Drive]

Jonathan Lucroy’s Realistic trade partners- Through June 15

 

Team Record Games out of playoff spot Current Catcher

Red Sox 37-27 - Vazquez

Rays 31-32 3.5 Casalli

Yankees 31-34 4.5 B.McCann

Indians 35-30 - Gomes

Tigers 33-32 2.0 J.McCann

White Sox 33-33 2.5 Flowers

Rangers 41-25 - Chirinos

Mariners 34-31 1.5 Ianetta

Astros 32-35 4.5 Castro

Nationals 41-25 - Ramos

Mets 35-29 0.5 D’Anaund

Cubs 44-20 - Montero

Pirates 33-32 2.0 Cervelli-INJ

Dodgers 35-32 1.0 Grandal

Dbacks 29-39 7.5 Castillo

 

Red Sox

 

Potential Trade Headliner

3B Rafael Devers

 

Second Tier Prospects of interest

LHP Brian Johnson, LHP Henry Owens, LHP Trey Ball

 

Likely Untouchables

2B Yoan Moncada, OF Andrew Benintendi, RHP Anderson Espinosa

 

Probability rating out of 10: 4

 

Comments: I think the Red Sox will prioritize starting pitching over a catcher upgrade, as there offense is firing on all cylinders.

 

Rays

 

Potential Trade Headliner

RHP Brent Honeywell, RHP Jacob Faria

 

Second Tier Prospects of interest

1B Casey Gillaspie, 1B Jake Bauers, SS Daniel Robertson, RHP Taylor Guerreri, SS Willy Adames

 

Likely Untouchables

LHP Blake Snell

 

Probability rating out of 10: 5

 

Comments: I don’t think the Rays will stay in the playoff race long enough to make such a bold move like acquiring Lucory. It is also a move that goes against their track record of trades.

 

Yankees

 

Potential Trade Headliner

C Gary Sanchez

 

Second Tier Prospects of interest

OF Aaron Judge, RHP James Kaprielian, RHP Domingo Acevedo, LHP Ian Clarkin, RHP Drew Finley

 

Likely Untouchables

SS Jorge Mateo

 

Probability rating out of 10: 3

 

Comments: The Yankees are the ones who are known to make bold moves like this one, and they could certainly look to use Lucroy as 1B and platoon him with McCann/DH. However, they may likely fall out of race soon and sell off one of their relievers instead of parting with young talent.

 

Indians

 

Potential Trade Headliner

1B Bobby Bradley, OF Bradley Zimmer

 

Second Tier Prospects of interest

LHP Rob Kaminsky, LHP Justus Sheffield, RHP Triston McKenzie, LHP Juan Hillman

 

Likely Untouchables

OF Clint Frazier, LHP Brady Aiken

 

Probability rating out of 10: 5

 

Comments: The Indians could upgrade from Gomes if they are fighting for the division title. Bradley would make a nice headliner with a couple of lower level, high upside arms like Sheffield or McKenzie in the mix as well. They may be comfortable enough with Yan Gomes, their current catcher, however.

 

Tigers

 

Potential Trade Headliner

LHP Daniel Norris

 

Second Tier Prospects of interest

RHP Beau Burrows, LHP Tyler Alexander, OF Steven Moya, SS/3B JaCoby Jones

 

Likely Untouchables

No One

 

Probability rating out of 10: 7

 

Comments: The Tigers are in win now mode and have a track record using their farm to make bold trade deadline moves to improve their MLB team. With a wide-open AL Central and no dominant AL club, I can see the Tigers making a play for Lucroy.

 

White Sox

 

Potential Trade Headliner

RHP Carson Fulmer

 

Second Tier Prospects of interest

RHP Spencer Adams, LHP Tyler Danish, LHP Jordan Guerrero

 

Likely Untouchables

SS Tim Anderson

 

Probability rating out of 10: 3

 

Comments: The White Sox already made a play to acquire SP James Shields, so I think that it signals that they are all in to win this season. They may be hesitant to part with Fulmer though, as he may be able to help in the bullpen during a pennant race himself. The rest of their system is weak at the top.

 

Rangers

 

Potential Trade Headliner

OF Lewis Brinson

 

Second Tier Prospects of interest

RHP Luis Ortiz, RHP Dillon Tate, RHP Mike Matuella, RHP Ariel Jurado, LHP Yohander Mendez

 

Likely Untouchables

3B/1B/OF Joey Gallo

 

Probability rating out of 10: 6

 

Comments: If the Rangers were serious about acquiring Lucroy, they surely would have made a play for him after their starting catcher Robinson Chirinos was out a month due to injury. He’s heathly now and they seem happy with him. With that said, the Rangers could opt for an upgrade to Lucroy and have the prospects to likely get the job done.

 

Mariners

 

Potential Trade Headliner

OF Tyler O’Neil

 

Second Tier Prospects of interest

RHP Nick Niedert, SS Drew Jackson, C Mike Zunino, 1B DJ Peterson, OF Alex Jackson

 

Likely Untouchables

No One

 

Probability rating out of 10: 2

 

Comments: The Mariners could surely upgrade from Chris Iannetta behind the dish, but they seem to lack that headlining prospect that could land a player of Lucroy’s caliber. Zunino, Peterson and Jackson have all lost some prospect luster as well.

 

Astros

 

Potential Trade Headliner

1B AJ Reed

 

Second Tier Prospects of interest

RHP Joe Musgrove, RHP Francis Martes, OF Daz Cameron, OF Derek Fisher, 3B J.D. Davis

 

Likely Untouchables

SS/3B Alex Bregman

 

Probability rating out of 10: 4

 

Comments: The Astros after a poor start are slowly climbing back into contention. They would match up well with the Brewers in a Lucroy deal, especially with Sterns familiar with their farm system. The problem is that after getting burned in the Gomez and Giles trades, they may be somewhat gun shy. That and if AJ Reed is actually in the “untouchable” column for them, I can’t see a good headliner to land Jonathan.

 

Nationals

 

Potential Trade Headliner

OF Victor Robles

 

Second Tier Prospects of interest

RHP Reynaldo Lopez, RHP Erik Fedde, RHP Austin Voth, 3B Drew Ward

 

Likely Untouchables

RHP Lucas Giolito, SS Trea Turner

 

Probability rating out of 10: 1

 

Comments: They are rolling in 1st place and are surely happy with their current catcher Wilson Ramos. However, if they decide to become players for Lucroy, they likely have some attractive pieces in their farm. However, if Sterns says the words Giolito or Turner, that click he will hear is the phone hanging up.

 

Mets

 

Potential Trade Headliner

RHP Matt Harvey

 

Second Tier Prospects of interest

RHP Zach Wheeler, 1B Dominic Smith, SS Ahmed Rosario, RHP Robert Gsellman

 

Likely Untouchables

LHP Steven Matz

 

Probability rating out of 10: 4

 

Comments: With Wright requiring neck surgery, they may be interested in Hill as part of a potential deal. However, the Mets seem to be rolling with young, oft-injured catcher Travis D’Anaud. Despite early stuggles, they likely won’t part with Harvey and Wheeler is not good enough to headline a Lucroy deal.

 

Cubs

 

Potential Trade Headliner

3B Javier Baez, OF/1B/C Kyle Schwarber

 

Second Tier Prospects of interest

RHP Dylan Cease, OF Alberta Almora, RHP Duane Underwood

 

Likely Untouchables

OF Greybar Torres, OF Eloy Jimenez

 

Probability rating out of 10: 4

 

Comments: The Cubs need zero help on offense and would likely look for pitching help at the deadline. They also just promoted top catching prospect Wilson Contreras. I think it would take a Contreras flop AND a Montero injury to get the Cubs seriously interested at this point.

 

Pirates

 

Potential Trade Headliner

OF Austin Meadows

 

Second Tier Prospects of interest

RHP Mitch Keller, 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes, RHP Yeudy Garcia, LHP Steven Brault

 

Likely Untouchables

RHP Tyler Glasnow, RHP Jameson Taillon

 

Probability rating out of 10: 2

 

Comments: Pirates C Cervelli is on the DL, but should be back. If he has any setbacks and the Pirates get hot, they could be players for Lucroy. However, with the Cubs running away with the division, it’s hard to see them giving up a lot of talent for right to lose the Wild Card game again.

 

Dodgers

 

Potential Trade Headliner

RHP Jose De Leon, RHP Grant Holmes

 

Second Tier Prospects of interest

RHP Walker Buehler, OF/1B Cody Bellinger, OF Alex Verdugo, RHP Frankie Montas, 2B Willie Calhoun

 

Likely Untouchables

LHP Julio Urias, RHP Yadiel Alvarez

 

Probability rating out of 10: 8

 

Comments: The Dodgers can’t waste many more years of Kershaw’s prime and have the farm to match up well with the Brewers via trade. They have Grandal and Barnes at C but I can see them being aggressive this year if they can stay neck and neck with the Giants for the NL West.

 

Diamondbacks

 

Potential Trade Headliner

3B/2B Brandon Drury

 

Second Tier Prospects of interest

RHP Braden Shipley, OF/1B Pete O’Brien, LHP Alex Young, LHP Cody Reed

 

Likely Untouchables

No One with Dave Stewart at the helm!

 

Probability rating out of 10: 1

 

Comments: The Diamondbacks would need to catch fire in the next month to get back into contender status. If it happens, Dave Stewart should be on Sterns speed dial. Realistically, the Dbacks will become sellers themselves and look to move players like Castillo/Ziegler.

 

Conclusion:

 

Based off my analysis, the Dodgers, Tigers, Rangers, Rays and Indians match up best for a potential trade for Brewers catcher Jonathan Lucroy before this years July 31st trade deadline. A dark horse candidate could emerge, but hopefully the market for Luc is flush with potential suitors.

[DougJonesChangeUp]

Wow. Nice work my friend.

[Surhoff5]

Wheeler is not good enough to headline a Lucroy deal.

 

That write-up was seriously impressive and a great read. Props my friend.

 

One thing I will disagree slightly with is the quoted above. I don't think anyone knows what to expect of Wheeler right now, but he could be a headliner. I realize it was a different regime, but if he was good enough to be a headliner in a Gomez deal, he is good enough to be one in a Lucroy deal. Gomez and Lucroy should have pretty much equal value. Gomez wasn't having as good of year heading into the trade deadline, but he was coming off two straight years of being a top-15 player in all of baseball.

[brewmann04]

Great work I want a legit starter back

[SRB]

Gomez and Lucroy should have pretty much equal value. Gomez wasn't having as good of year heading into the trade deadline, but he was coming off two straight years of being a top-15 player in all of baseball.

 

I disagree, I think evaluators knew there was a significant chance Gomez turned back into a pumpkin (which he did). Trade chatter and rumors suggest that when healthy Lucroy is highly regarded by front offices thoughout the majors.

 

Nice work, A Swing. I disagree about most of the guys you list as "untouchables" but I suppose it doesn't hurt for fans to be conservative in getting out expectations up.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Thanks guys. If Brewers can land any of the players listed as "likely untouchable" then Sterns will deserve kudos as a young GM who played his cards right.

[MilwaukeeBeers]

Some of the untouchables are questionable, but overall good read!