The 2017 MLB Draft Thread (#9 Pick + #34 & #46)

[Austin Tatious]

The Brewers need to get out of the strategy of trying to draft underslot guys in the first round on the hope of getting a good player in a later round. It's over-thinking the process. Get the best dang talent on the board on the first round. The Brewers need high quality. The underslot concept is a failed strategy.

[And That]

The Brewers took their highest rated draft prospect this year. They would have taken Ray at the first overall pick, had they had the selection.

 

If there is a study showing how signing players under slot is a failed concept, I would be interested in reading it.

[IndyCrew]

The players in the draft change every year, so the strategy should change too.

 

If you have two players who you see as equal (or very close to equal) talent, then I'd for sure grab the under slot guy to free up some cash in a later round.

 

Now, grabbing a B talent in the first round to get a B in the second round instead of an A- and C+ combo would be harder to swallow, but it's all based on how they value the prospects--which is something we don't know.

[LouisEly]

Then you have the Astros who settled for Carlos Correa and ended up with a golden draft combo of Correa/McCullers. A lot of times those #11-16 overall players are the real gems.

I seem to recall that Correa was generally considered one of the top 3-4 players in that draft, but signed for a low slot because he had no intentions of playing college ball. I recall quotes from him where he said he wanted to start playing (and collecting a paycheck) right away.

 

Speaking of the Astros, the other side of the coin is 2014 where they lost two picks because it backfired on them.

 

With the bonus pool instituted in 2012 it's going to be too early to draw any conclusions, certainly for 2016 and 2015 and probably for 2014, considering that almost all examples are HS players. But we can look and see trends. I can't find anything that lists slot and actual for 2012 so I'll have to guess who signed for well above slot (looking for at least $500K over in 1a and 2nd rounds, $400K over in 3rd or later, can't be team's first pick):

 

2012:

Gallo - hit

McCullers - hit

Smoral - miss

Weickel - miss

DeCarlo - miss

Underwood - neutral (positive 2014/2015, negative 2016, but looks like he was injured)

White - miss

Kelly - in the majors, but .672 career OPS in minors, neutral

Aune - miss

Pike - neutral/leaning miss

Ruiz - neutral/trending up

Buttrey - miss

Kivel - miss

 

2013:

Manaea - hit

A. Wilson - miss

Mercado - miss

Hanneman - miss

Ward - neutral/leaning miss

Brady - neutral/leaning miss

Nunez - neutral (looked good 2014/2015, not 2016)

Bohn - miss

Michalczewski - neutral/leaning miss

Driver - miss

Nicely - miss

Wiper - neutral

 

2014:

Gatewood - negative trend

Harrison - negative trend

Blewett - negative trend

Morgan - negative trend

DeCarr - negative trend

Bradley - positive trend (technically not $400K over but close)

Sands - negative trend

Steele - neutral (positive first two years, negative 2016)

L. Thomas - neutral/leaning negative

Cease - positive (high BB rate though)

T. Scott - negative trend

 

Overall not looking good. I think the point here is that no matter how much pool money a team has, ultimately draft picks have risks and most don't pan out. I still believe you can get more (and a higher success rate) by trading veterans doing well. The players acquired in the Smith/Lucroy/Jeffress trades (Bickford, Susac, Brinson, Ortiz, Cordell) have as good of a trend or better than anyone on this list except McCullers. Freddie Peralta - one of three pieces acquired for Adam Lind - looks better than a majority of the pitchers on this list (Herrera's off to a good start too, 8.8 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 in AZ). But McCullers appears to be the exception, not the rule; less than 1/3rd appear to be legitimate MLB prospects so far.

[paul253]

I know next years draft, at least at the top, is supposed to be better than this years. Any chance we can grab a potential #1 or #2 starting pitcher with the #10 pick, which is where I see us ending up? Any chance we'd actually select a pitcher over another toolsey outfielder?

[MrTPlush]

I know next years draft, at least at the top, is supposed to be better than this years. Any chance we can grab a potential #1 or #2 starting pitcher with the #10 pick, which is where I see us ending up? Any chance we'd actually select a pitcher over another toolsey outfielder?

 

Every year a team selects a good pitcher outside the first five picks. The problem isn't where you pick, but having a good scouting department.

[paul253]

I agree, but, and I don't mean to sound like a jerk, that doesn't really answer my question. I guess I could have been a little more clear. Any chance we can grab a pitcher who projects to be a TOR starter? Are there enough of them available? Obviously a guy drafted in the 18th round could turn into a TOR starter but if he projected as a TOR started he wouldn't have lasted to until the 18th round.

[TheCrew07]

I know next years draft, at least at the top, is supposed to be better than this years. Any chance we can grab a potential #1 or #2 starting pitcher with the #10 pick, which is where I see us ending up? Any chance we'd actually select a pitcher over another toolsey outfielder?

 

I've begged for a top of the rotation type pitcher every year since 2008... and I was penalized with Arnett whom I liked at the time given the scouting reports and I wasn't as learned about mechanics as I am now, Jungmann whom I disliked from the start because he didn't have plus stuff, and Medieros whom I never even considered because I want to stay away from low arm slot pitchers in the first round.

 

So I think in the future I'm just going to stick with what I did this year and throw some pitching and hitting names into the void and leave it at that. If one of the guys I like gets picked... great! If not I'll just hope for the best.

 

To directly answer your question, the depth of the pitching is always somewhat dependent on health, much more so than the hitting, so it's too early to call. Potentially yes, even in a down year for pitching I think there's a Triston McKenzie type pitcher with smooth mechanics, athleticism, and quite a bit of bit of projection who gets over looked to certain extent, a nugget if you will. At 10 we're looking at an ascending college arm like Newcomb from a couple of years ago, or a HS pitcher with projection. McKenzie was the 17th (if I counted correctly) pitcher taken in 2015, and we drafted Kirby 2 slots ahead of him who had control issues in college with fairly decent mechanics, which gave me pause because there just wasn't a good reason for his spotty control (i speculated athleticism might be the issue), and then of course ended up needing TJ. The only HS pitchers I would have taken ahead of McKenzie that year were Allard and Aiken.

 

Aiken (17th) had a pretty uneven debut coming back from TJ in the 2nd half, Allard (14th) ascended over the course of the season to finish strong in the SAL, he made the Hot Sheet towards the end of the season.

 

Bickford (18th) was from that same draft, we know he ended up in A+ for us, I wasn't a fan of him in the first round. I liked Ashe Russell (21st) from his scouting reports until I watched his video, he's pitched poorly and isn't out of R ball yet. No HS pitchers taken between Russell and McKenzie have done anything to make me regret dismissing them in the first, a couple of guys have had some success from an ERA perspective, but their K/9s are completely uninspiring.

 

Here's my post about the top of that draft.

 

P.S. I feel like I always mess up whom vs who, so I apologize if I used them incorrectly.

 

edit. Oops I thought that was post Jul 8th, but it was Jun 8th.

[MrTPlush]

I did a little research to show pitchers around where we will pick. I am going to list pitchers selected between 7-16 since that is around where we will pick and right after.

 

2006:

Clayton Kershaw

Tim Lincecum (My god)

Max Scherzer

2007:

Madison Bumgarner

 

2008:

None

 

2009:

None

 

2010:

Matt Harvey

Chris Sale

 

2011:

Jose Fernandez

 

2012:

Lucas Giolito

 

One thing to note the Top 5 is not some kind of pitching heaven. Actually it always seems to be a nightmare to pick a pitcher Top 5. In the same time frame above the Top 5 picks have produced 3 ace pitchers. ALL of them were selected #1 overall...ALL. Since 2006 picks 2-5 have produced ZERO ace type pitchers. A lot of that has to do with teams not drafting many pitchers in the Top 5, but let me tell you there are a ton of busts in the Top 5 too. Regardless the point is most elite pitchers tend to go after the Top 5 picks and there is very likely to be a highly rated one that will end up an ace on the board when we pick. However you gotta pick the right one...that is the hard part.

[brewmann04]

that the million dollar Question Paul. I like the Makeup of this team and maybe a few more moves are needed to get more Pitching, but drafting a POTENTIAL Stud Pitcher will be very nice.

[colbyjack]

Next year will be a good year to get a big arm, especially from the college ranks. The following are currently all candidates to go in the top 10 overall (all are RHP – the # is where we currently have them ranked overall for next year's draft):

 

1. Kyle Wright, Vanderbilt

3. Alex Faedo, Florida

5. JB Bukauskas, UNC

7. Tristan Beck, Stanford

8. Tanner Houck,Missouri

14. Colton Hock, Stanford

 

Links to videos for most of these guys can be accessed here if you're interested:

 

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=12244

 

There's a lot of uncertainty at this point in time after the #1 overall player, Hunter Greene, and it's not even determined yet whether he has more value as a RHP vs. a power hitting SS. There's plenty of talent in the prep ranks, just not as much clarity as there likely will be a lot of players moving up and down during the spring (more so than usual at least).

[nate82]

Colby what about in the HS ranks maybe someone like Joe Boyle? He should be available when the Brewers are picking.

 

I still would prefer Alejandro Toral over any pitcher kind of reminds me of Prince but not as advanced as Prince was in terms of hitting at the same age.

[colbyjack]

Joe Boyle looked really good at our events this summer, especially a couple of weeks ago out in San Diego. Great frame, easy arm, even if it was an incredibly brief performance. He's a guy we have targeted as a player who could move up into the conversation, so that's a good call.

 

What makes you think Toral isn't as advanced? He's been hitting at older age groups and has been ranked toward the top of his class for several years now. The biggest problem with him is that sometimes he can get too selective simply because he is so well known and gets pitched around like crazy. When he's locked in he puts on a hitting clinic and has very easy power. He's more of an Adrian Gonzalez/Anthony Rizzo (at the same stage) type of hitter to me, although that's largely because Prince was so unique (Kyle Schwarber actually reminds me a lot of Prince).

 

A player I like a ton is Adam Hall. He's a prep middle infielder from Canada that I think could be moved behind the plate. There's a lot of Buster Posey type of vibe to his athleticism at a similar stage of their prep careers. And even if he doesn't switch positions I really like how much carry he generates for a guy that isn't quite big right now but has a lot of room for added strength. He's not in the first round discussion (at least not where the Brewers will be selecting), he's just one of my faves.

[nate82]

Well that didn't come out like I wanted it to. I meant Prince was just better overall in my opinion not really a knock against Toral. I do like the Rizzo comp that is more accurate than Prince.

 

As for Boyle there was reports that he was only topping out in the upper 80's to the lower 90'so and is now in the mid 90's. Is this true? I know during the Perfect Game event a few months ago he was throwing some gas.

[MrTPlush]

Twins are slowly securing the #1 pick with a record of 6-24 in their last 30 games. Unbelievably bad. Wow

[monkeyman343434]

Hey Colby,

What are some of the drawbacks of Alex Lange that keep him out of the top half of the first round?

Thanks!

 

To the thoughts on the 2017 first round pick, even though the Brewers are in desperate need of a TOR starter, the odds seem to be in favor of adding a hitter in the first round, keep stock piling talent that seems like it will have a better chance of turning out, and end up acquiring potential TOR starters via trade. Although, i know that approach seems to not be very favorable among most Brewerfan'ers

[paul253]

and end up acquiring potential TOR starters via trade.

 

We don't have anyone left to trade that can bring a TOR starter. We have no Gomez or Lucroy anymore. Braun isn't getting you a TOR in my opinion. We did well in obtaining Hader Ortiz and Bickford. Hopefully they all work out.

[brewcrewdue80]

and end up acquiring potential TOR starters via trade.

 

We don't have anyone left to trade that can bring a TOR starter. We have no Gomez or Lucroy anymore. Braun isn't getting you a TOR in my opinion. We did well in obtaining Hader Ortiz and Bickford. Hopefully they all work out.

 

While true on contract/FAs to be, doesn't mean the team couldn't trade a Jonathon Villar for TOR prospect should a proper team come knocking. Domingo Santana or even Orlando Arcia. While I don't see any of the three getting that type of offer this offseason, it doesn't mean that by deadline next season they couldn't be seen as that kind of value in trade.

 

This supposed stretch of Losses with Chc/StL has brought about an 8-6 record with a 2-1-1 series record (5-2 vs the cubbies!) Pretty sure we're not losing 90 games, much less the 100 loss potential. 5-7 in last 12games to avoid. Just keep the #10 and don't fall in to 11 is all I ask. I don't want to worry about a QO signing this winter because losing #11pick after drafting Corey Ray could be disastrous 2-4year event of rebuild. 1st rd struggles continue with current management.

[MrTPlush]

I don't want to worry about a QO signing this winter

 

Why the concern with the QO signing There is no reason we should be signing anyone major in free agency.

 

At least we aren't the Phillies who despite having the worst run differential are sitting at #9.

[brewcrewdue80]

I don't want to worry about a QO signing this winter

 

Why the concern with the QO signing There is no reason we should be signing anyone major in free agency.

 

At least we aren't the Phillies who despite having the worst run differential are sitting at #9.

 

Simple. We have the salary space to fit in a QO type of player. We've been claimed to have the #1 Prospect system. While not perfect, having added Susac. There's reason enough to see offense being above avg. Depending on the return on Braun. A SP addition of Urias or DeLeon to mix with Nelson, Davies, Guerra + a 5th SP (the QO or Garza/Peralta/Hader) You have the makings of believing you can win 81+games. At least the makings to believe you won't pick top 10 next season so getting a QO player at a 2nd round cost now makes more sense than doing so the next offseason when it costs your 1st rd choice.

 

So yes I have concern. 3 power bats I could envision worry on is Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, or Mark Trumbo. Don't really see a SP to be concerned about. But, trade Braun, replace with Puig/Trumbo or Bautista. Move Carter this offseason and you have space for Trumbo or Encarnacion.

[colbyjack]

nate, we had Boyle throwing in the 88-91 mph range a year ago, which is still pretty good, and then 93 in mid-June at our National Showcase, which is also pretty good. A few weeks after that, and again during our nationally televised game a month ago, he peaked at 96. He's 6-6/225 and he also knows how to pitch, so he's definitely a guy that has some serious helium right now.

 

monkeyman, for me (and a lot of others) Alex Lange is a #3 starter, maybe more of a 4/5, but he should have some success simply because he's big, durable and throws 3 pitches for strikes. He's mostly in the 88-92 range, and can peak higher (94-ish). He has a good, not great curveball and a solid changeup as well, so if he's drafted in the first round it's more as a "sum of his parts" type of situations. He gets a lot of comps to Anthony Ranaudo, another LSU arm with a similar profile, but for Brewers fans, good or bad, Tyler Jungmann may be a better comp. A safe® pick, but also one that I would pass on in the first round as I prefer a pitcher with a higher upside. Pitchers like that can play up based on command, such as another LSU arm, Aaron Nola, but Nola's command, and his changeup, put him in a different category.

[MrTPlush]

I don't want to worry about a QO signing this winter

 

Why the concern with the QO signing There is no reason we should be signing anyone major in free agency.

 

At least we aren't the Phillies who despite having the worst run differential are sitting at #9.

 

Simple. We have the salary space to fit in a QO type of player. We've been claimed to have the #1 Prospect system. While not perfect, having added Susac. There's reason enough to see offense being above avg. Depending on the return on Braun. A SP addition of Urias or DeLeon to mix with Nelson, Davies, Guerra + a 5th SP (the QO or Garza/Peralta/Hader) You have the makings of believing you can win 81+games. At least the makings to believe you won't pick top 10 next season so getting a QO player at a 2nd round cost now makes more sense than doing so the next offseason when it costs your 1st rd choice.

So yes I have concern. 3 power bats I could envision worry on is Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, or Mark Trumbo. Don't really see a SP to be concerned about. But, trade Braun, replace with Puig/Trumbo or Bautista. Move Carter this offseason and you have space for Trumbo or Encarnacion.

 

If the main motivator is to only give up a 2nd round pick vs. a first round pick next year(still a big stretch, but I will give you the fact it is at least possible) then I don't see why you are losing sleep over getting the #11 pick. At that point your theory of why to sign a QO player this year doesn't really make any sense so we wouldn't target any QO player because why wouldn't we just wait a year and do it closer to when we are competing and with what can't be any worse of a pick to lose?

 

AND to add onto that all three of the examples you provided make zero sense. Bautista is way too old, Trumbo is similar to Carter, and Encarnacion is also way too old to be targeting. There is absolutely no way Stearns who wants a young controllable team is going to sacrifice the #11 pick for some aging expensive free agent.

[adambr2]

I don't want to worry about a QO signing this winter

 

Why the concern with the QO signing There is no reason we should be signing anyone major in free agency.

 

At least we aren't the Phillies who despite having the worst run differential are sitting at #9.

 

Simple. We have the salary space to fit in a QO type of player. We've been claimed to have the #1 Prospect system. While not perfect, having added Susac. There's reason enough to see offense being above avg. Depending on the return on Braun. A SP addition of Urias or DeLeon to mix with Nelson, Davies, Guerra + a 5th SP (the QO or Garza/Peralta/Hader) You have the makings of believing you can win 81+games. At least the makings to believe you won't pick top 10 next season so getting a QO player at a 2nd round cost now makes more sense than doing so the next offseason when it costs your 1st rd choice.

 

So yes I have concern. 3 power bats I could envision worry on is Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, or Mark Trumbo. Don't really see a SP to be concerned about. But, trade Braun, replace with Puig/Trumbo or Bautista. Move Carter this offseason and you have space for Trumbo or Encarnacion.

 

Why do we have the need to sign a QO just because it fits into our budget? That to me is what got us in this mess in the first place. Handing out a big contract in the middle of a rebuild on the goal of winning 81 games doesn't seem like a great approach to me, no matter what pick it costs you.

 

If we continue to improve in 2017, and by 2018 or 2019 we think, 'Ok, i we're still growing, but I think we really have a chance now, and I think Player X fills a big need and would be a really good fit, ' then by all means go for it. But we shouldn't be proactively looking to spend money just because we can.

[brewcrewdue80]

Plush, I have concern to losing a 1st rd pick this season and it being at #11 the absolute worst pick to have to give up. I am assuming the Brewers win more games next season and pick nearer to 15. Which at least isn't 11 but also 1 year later on the rebuild. I'd just rather have another top 10 pick to add to rebuild.

While the premise is Kyle Lohse was a mistake, you do have to note:

7total players #17 and after have made the ML roster for a combined 4.2BWar. Tim Anderson #17 being the highest at 1.9WAR to date. Seth Manaea #34 at 1.7 and Michael Lorenzen #38 1.3.

6players from the 2nd rd have made ML rosters for a -2.8WAR

 

Looking at that draft class and first 10rounds, may be worst ever in my 35years. Kris Bryant(13.1), Jon Gray(2.8), and Kendall Graveman(4.1) are the only players to have earned 2WAR or more

[MrTPlush]

Plush, I have concern to losing a 1st rd pick this season and it being at #11 the absolute worst pick to have to give up.

 

You didn't really answer the question though. If we pick #11 why would we go and sign a QO guy? Who is this can't miss guy this winter that we need to have? It isn't like we can afford a Greinke/Heyward. The kind of QO free agents we can afford are available every year. I really just don't see the concern. Attanasio isn't in charge anymore and Stearns isn't going to sign guys just to please him. Stearns would just say no and wait to be fired and go elsewhere. He is an up and coming baseball executive, I am sure there are teams that would love him to have full power if he comes to run their show.

 

I am not trying to be one of those people that pretends to know Stearns in and out after a year, but this scenario you are concerned about seems like something Stearns would never even consider.