The 2017 MLB Draft Thread (#9 Pick + #34 & #46)

[Roderick]

With the losses starting to mount, and the likelihood of trading off talent, I'd say we have a realistic shot at a top 3 pick.

 

Four teams solidly below us and four teams close to our vicinity in the standings. I'm sure if Nelson or Guerra are traded away we could end up folding, but otherwise I think we could hold together for close to a .400 clip even if Lucroy and a couple of bullpen guys are traded.

[ZBTMP]

Four teams solidly below us and four teams close to our vicinity in the standings. I'm sure if Nelson or Guerra are traded away we could end up folding, but otherwise I think we could hold together for close to a .400 clip even if Lucroy and a couple of bullpen guys are traded.

 

Unless the Rays sells off alot, they still have an enviable rotation of Smyly, Archer, Snell, Odorizzi, and Moore. I'd still put money they catch us.

 

FWIW, Fangraphs has the Brewers finishing in a 3 way tie at 70 wins for 4th pick with Lucroy.

Braves 58 wins

Reds 65 wins

Twins 67 wins

Brewers, Phillies and Rays 70 wins

[MrTPlush]

Junior Guerra is pitching like an ace...and he isn't one. Even if you are the biggest Guerra fan a notable regression should be obvious to you. Our rotation has nowhere to go but down if you ask me even if we don't trade any of them.

 

The other thing is our bullpen. Torres and Boyer should be gone at the least. Add in one of the big three, maybe two, and clearly our bullpen is going to take a big hit.

 

Lastly it sure won't help taking away Lucroy's offense. We will go from an all star bat to a well below average one just like that.

[brewcrewdue80]

While yes, we are taking a hit when we lose some of our players to trades, That is happening for other teams as well like SD parting with Upton in the last 24hours. I would think Atlanta, Cincy, SD are for sure bets to finish worse record than Milw. Oakland is another club I foresee slumping with trade aways (Gray, Valencia) Minnesota I think can overtake Milwaukee, they aren't losing talent and were a team above .500 last season. Tampa has the pitching and Arizona is vastly underachieving so I think they'll finish ahead of Milw. Philly and Angels may be competing with Milw for what I'm going to say is the 5th-7th worst records. We're still on pace for 70wins so with losing key players, 65-66wins becomes my expectation. That would have been 3rd pick last season. This homestand we could take 5 of the next 6 games putting the team above a 70win pace. (73 then) That makes 69-70 reasonable then and back to a 5th-6th type of pick. Either way, It's getting exciting the team potential that may be construed on the field in 3-5years.

[reillymcshane]

I think we are primed for a sizable collapse the last two months - assuming we trade Luc and others. Lucroy is such an important part of this team - losing him affects the club in so many ways. Add in potential loses - relievers in particular - and you could have a pretty bad club. I wouldn't be shocked if other starters are shipped out - Carter, Scooter, Nelson - even Braun could eventually be traded. It'll be painful trotting out guys like Wilkens and Middlebrooks.

 

The thing is that I feel it's the right thing. I'll be a painful couple of months, but it's how things will need to go. Eventually, we'll see guys like Arcia, Hader, etc. I'll enjoy watching the young guys give it a go - even if it's a slow process.

[Roderick]

I think we are primed for a sizable collapse the last two months

 

I don't see a total collapse, unless Davies and Guerra hit an innings wall.

 

I just think our roster is 80% young guys that aren't established major leaguers that are not going to let up as they are fighting to stay on the roster for this year or fighting to cement a job for next year. The only positional veterans are Braun and Carter and Carter is playing for that next contract.

 

And then I glanced at the schedule and it really isn't that bad the next month.

 

Once you eliminate Peralta, Jungmann, and eventually Garza from the starting staff, there may even be an uptick if we get someone to surprise from AAA.

[CheezWizHed]

I think our schedule is very tough the rest of the year too. Not sure where i read it, but our first half had a low difficulty of schedule and the second half is harder.

[trwi7]

I hope we start losing after these next 11 games. San Diego, Arizona, Atlanta and Cincinnati are all terrible, so we'll probably go like 8-3 against them, especially with 7 of the games at home.

 

But even after that our schedule doesn't look that difficult to me. 11 against the Cubs with 8 of them on the road will be tough. 7 against the Cardinals will be tough and 3 at Texas will be tough but other than that? Not a tough schedule at all. 3 at Seattle, 3 vs Colorado, 4 vs Pittsburgh (who we own at home for whatever reason), 3 at Pittsburgh, 3 at Cincinnati, 3 vs Pittsburgh, 3 vs Cincinnati, 3 at Colorado. It's either bad teams like Cincinnati or mediocre teams like Pittsburgh, Seattle and Colorado sandwiched between our 21 tough games.

 

This team hasn't shown themselves to be bad enough to lose these games with any regularity, especially against Pittsburgh and especially at home where we're 5 games over .500.

 

It would be pretty disappointing to me to end up with a 9-13ish draft pick but that looks like it's where we're heading to me.

[MrTPlush]

Picking #10 is NOT a bad thing. At least we don't know yet.

 

Good Reason: We have all these breakout stars for the future that lead us to more wins than we originally thought. Guerra/Thornburg/Davies/Villar. I will take all that EASILY over 5 spots in the draft.

 

Bad Reason: We have a bunch of guys in a honeymoon phase so to speak that regress next year. Helping us to a lower draft pick this year, but not actually helping the future(lose lose situation).

[reillymcshane]

Picking #10 is NOT a bad thing. At least we don't know yet.

 

Good Reason: We have all these breakout stars for the future that lead us to more wins than we originally thought. Guerra/Thornburg/Davies/Villar. I will take all that EASILY over 5 spots in the draft.

 

Bad Reason: We have a bunch of guys in a honeymoon phase so to speak that regress next year. Helping us to a lower draft pick this year, but not actually helping the future(lose lose situation).

I agree that picking 10 or 12 or wherever isn't a bad thing. It means guys like Davies and Guerra and so forth are doing good. That's the point of playing right now - determining who's part of the future. If guys do good, the future gets that much more in focus. I'll happily swap a few draft slots for identifying pieces of our next winning club.

[paul253]

I wonder if the Brewers are going to target a power hitter or two next draft. The system seems to lack a true power hitter. The ideal future outfield of Brinson, Phillips and Ray is probably only going to produce 35-45 home runs total. I don't see much elsewhere. Roache and Coulter maybe but who knows if they'll even hit well enough to make it.

[TheCrew07]

I wonder if the Brewers are going to target a power hitter or two next draft. The system seems to lack a true power hitter. The ideal future outfield of Brinson, Phillips and Ray is probably only going to produce 35-45 home runs total. I don't see much elsewhere. Roache and Coulter maybe but who knows if they'll even hit well enough to make it.

 

How did you arrive at those #s?

 

Assuming Phillips becomes a starter he's pretty much a lock for 15-20.

 

Assuming the same for Brinson he looks to be 20-25 without much improvement.

 

Getting way ahead of ourselves pretty much every scouting source pegged Ray around 15 HRs as well.

 

That's a minimum of 45 and in good years around 60 HRs.

 

Does this next wave project to hit 180ish HRs per season like the first wave? No, but the pitching and defense should be significantly improved. I'd be happy with a team that hit 140 HRs but was top 3 in both pitching and defense in the NL, and I do think 140 HRs is a pretty realistic target for our current crop of prospects. If Isan Diaz becomes the 2B that gives us about 80 HRs in 4 players, Acria looks to be about 10 HRs, so then you're looking at needing 50 from 3B, C, 1B, and the bench which seems reasonable.

 

Of course many of our prospects have the ability to hit more if they really break out, but that's too difficult to project right now. Of course there's the trade market and draft as well, there are a couple of intriguing college 1B prospects that have power potential for 2017 like Austin Edens from Samford and Austin Bush from UCSB.

[nate82]

 

Of course many of our prospects have the ability to hit more if they really break out, but that's too difficult to project right now. Of course there's the trade market and draft as well, there are a couple of intriguing college 1B prospects that have power potential for 2017 like Austin Edens from Samford and Austin Bush from UCSB.

 

If the Brewers go power bat then I would prefer them to go with the prep bat Alejandro Toral while his only position is 1B (in my opinion) he has a lot of power potential and a smooth bat with an advanced approach at the plate for his age. If the Brewers go College bat I would prefer KJ Harrison who should be available when the Brewers are picking though it is hard to say right now who will or will not be available when the Brewers are picking.

 

[QuevedosTongue]

I love Toral, but Stearns has shown a clear affinity for up the middle players, so I don't see that. 2017 is really deep for pitching, I'll be surprised if the Brewers don't go that route with their #1.

[Austin Tatious]

Toral is exciting. So are the catchers, Schwarz and Harrison. Mark Vientios is an interesting prep SS.

 

Keep an eye on prep arm, Hunter Greene. It'd be interesting to see if Ray Montgomery takes the challenge of drafting an elite prep pitcher or stays in his comfort zone. As Stearns, Matt Arnold and Attanasio found out, teams aren't trading away the elite pitching arms like Triston McKenzie. You gotta go get them home grown. They could direct Ray accordingly after what they just saw the hard way.

 

Greene is very, very interesting. At some point, the Brewers will need to have courage in the draft. The question is, will you get another shot at a premium pitcher like this or will he be long gone? What Milwaukee doesn't need is a third starter like some of the college arms projected up high. You want a difference maker pitcher. Otherwise, you might as well get the top flight catcher, Toral, Vientos, or a Kendall.

 

@BenBadler Hunter Greene just turned 17 yesterday. This is a special arm.

Hunter Greene up to 98 mph in the first. Here's a K on 97 and a K on an 82 mph slider. #ACGames16 #mlbdraft

 

 

LONG BEACH, Calif.—Behind Hunter Greene’s strong outing, the Brewers beat the Nationals 4-3 on Sunday in Day Two of the Area Code Games.

 

Adam Kerner (Oaks Christian High, Westlake Village, Calif.) hit the go-ahead, two-run home run in the bottom of the sixth inning for the Brewers, who are representing Southern California.

 

“I wasn’t trying to do too much, just drive something to the outfield,” Kerner said.

 

Greene (Notre Dame High, Los Angeles) started the game for the Brewers and struck out four batters while allowing just three hits in 2 2/3 innings.

 

Greene’s fastball sat 96-98 mph in the first inning and the slider had 10-to-4 action that was getting swings and misses, according to BA’s Hudson Belinsky.

 

Read more at http://www.baseballamerica.com/area-code-baseball/greene-leads/#iHOjTR7AjgehmxUK.99

 

[narwhalattack]

Toral is exciting. So are the catchers, Schwarz and Harrison. Mark Vientios is an interesting prep SS.

 

Keep an eye on prep arm, Hunter Greene. It'd be interesting to see if Ray Montgomery takes the challenge of drafting an elite prep pitcher or stays in his comfort zone. As Stearns, Matt Arnold and Attanasio found out, teams aren't trading away the elite pitching arms like Triston McKenzie. You gotta go get them home grown. They could direct Ray accordingly after what they just saw the hard way.

 

Greene is very, very interesting. At some point, the Brewers will need to have courage in the draft. The question is, will you get another shot at a premium pitcher like this or will he be long gone? What Milwaukee doesn't need is a third starter like some of the college arms projected up high. You want a difference maker pitcher. Otherwise, you might as well get the top flight catcher, Toral, Vientos, or a Kendall.

 

@BenBadler Hunter Greene just turned 17 yesterday. This is a special arm.

Hunter Greene up to 98 mph in the first. Here's a K on 97 and a K on an 82 mph slider. #ACGames16 #mlbdraft

 

 

LONG BEACH, Calif.—Behind Hunter Greene’s strong outing, the Brewers beat the Nationals 4-3 on Sunday in Day Two of the Area Code Games.

 

Adam Kerner (Oaks Christian High, Westlake Village, Calif.) hit the go-ahead, two-run home run in the bottom of the sixth inning for the Brewers, who are representing Southern California.

 

“I wasn’t trying to do too much, just drive something to the outfield,” Kerner said.

 

Greene (Notre Dame High, Los Angeles) started the game for the Brewers and struck out four batters while allowing just three hits in 2 2/3 innings.

 

Greene’s fastball sat 96-98 mph in the first inning and the slider had 10-to-4 action that was getting swings and misses, according to BA’s Hudson Belinsky.

 

Read more at http://www.baseballamerica.com/area-code-baseball/greene-leads/#iHOjTR7AjgehmxUK.99

 

 

Unless the Brewers draft in the Top 5, I highly doubt they'll be able to draft him.

[MrTPlush]

Toral is exciting. So are the catchers, Schwarz and Harrison. Mark Vientios is an interesting prep SS.

 

Keep an eye on prep arm, Hunter Greene. It'd be interesting to see if Ray Montgomery takes the challenge of drafting an elite prep pitcher or stays in his comfort zone. As Stearns, Matt Arnold and Attanasio found out, teams aren't trading away the elite pitching arms like Triston McKenzie. You gotta go get them home grown. They could direct Ray accordingly after what they just saw the hard way.

 

Greene is very, very interesting. At some point, the Brewers will need to have courage in the draft. The question is, will you get another shot at a premium pitcher like this or will he be long gone? What Milwaukee doesn't need is a third starter like some of the college arms projected up high. You want a difference maker pitcher. Otherwise, you might as well get the top flight catcher, Toral, Vientos, or a Kendall.

 

@BenBadler Hunter Greene just turned 17 yesterday. This is a special arm.

Hunter Greene up to 98 mph in the first. Here's a K on 97 and a K on an 82 mph slider. #ACGames16 #mlbdraft

 

 

LONG BEACH, Calif.—Behind Hunter Greene’s strong outing, the Brewers beat the Nationals 4-3 on Sunday in Day Two of the Area Code Games.

 

Adam Kerner (Oaks Christian High, Westlake Village, Calif.) hit the go-ahead, two-run home run in the bottom of the sixth inning for the Brewers, who are representing Southern California.

 

“I wasn’t trying to do too much, just drive something to the outfield,” Kerner said.

 

Greene (Notre Dame High, Los Angeles) started the game for the Brewers and struck out four batters while allowing just three hits in 2 2/3 innings.

 

Greene’s fastball sat 96-98 mph in the first inning and the slider had 10-to-4 action that was getting swings and misses, according to BA’s Hudson Belinsky.

 

Read more at http://www.baseballamerica.com/area-code-baseball/greene-leads/#iHOjTR7AjgehmxUK.99

 

 

Unless the Brewers draft in the Top 5, I highly doubt they'll be able to draft him.

 

Draft is nearly a year away. Might not even be a Top 15 talent by then. Never know happens every year.

[3and2Fastball]

The Brewers play a grand total of 9 of their last 29 games at home. That will likely have a heavy effect on the Win-Loss record at season's end.

[brewmann04]

Sept should be interesting to see there draft position.

[reillymcshane]

Just for fun, here's an early Top 50 listing for next 2017 from minorleagueball.com

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/8/14/12477008/2017-mlb-draft-prospect-an-early-top-50

[MrTPlush]

Just for fun, here's an early Top 50 listing for next 2017 from minorleagueball.com

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2016/8/14/12477008/2017-mlb-draft-prospect-an-early-top-50

 

Pretty cool Wisconsin native Jaren Kendall is #1.

[paul253]

Tons of pitching in that top 15. Good to see

[Austin Tatious]

Interesting list. Notable to see Tristan Beck way up there. He pulled out of the 2015 draft but then the Brewers took him in the 34th round. He'd already told teams he was going to Stanford but could have potentially gone late first round. Sounds like it worked out for him. He's likely going to go high in the draft and he's getting a Stanford education.

 

JJ Schwarz at 8 is big time. If you google him, there's a ton of publicity on him, including comparisons to Buster Posey, another catcher who went high. There are mixed reports out there on whether his arm is strong enough to catch. But he's an impact middle of the order bat at a premium position which is right on point. I'd give him a hard look before I'd ever take a mid rotation starter. Jeran Kendall and Schwarz are both going to be studs.

[monkeyman343434]

Can't sleep, so figured I'd make the standings for '17 draft, just to see how teams are stacking up. Apologies, I can't figure out how to do the formatting.

 

As of end of games on 8/17/2016

 

[pre][space][/space][space][/space][space][/space][space][/space][space][/space]Team Record GB

1. Atlanta 44 - 75 0

2. Minnesota 48 - 71 4

3. Arizona 49 - 70 5

4. Tampa Bay 49 - 69 5.5

5. Cincinnati 49 - 69 5.5

6. San Diego 50 - 69 6

7. LA Angels 50 - 69 6

8. Oakland 52 - 68 7.5

9. Milwaukee 52 - 66 8.5

10. Philadelphia 56 - 64 11.5

11. Colorado 56 - 63 12

12. CWS 56 - 62 12.5

13. Kansas City 59 - 60 15[/pre]

Just as close to #4 as to #10. Might be able to move up a couple of spots over the rest of the season.

[1992casey]

monkeyman, your chart was more than readable to begin with, but I formatted it for you. Thanks for the information.