The 2017 MLB Draft Thread (#9 Pick + #34 & #46)

[Mudville9]

I agree with this. I also think that statistics can be used to argue for one player or another that you may not even know you have a bias towards. This is why multiple scouts are needed from the same organization to look in on players when being looked at for trades or draft.

[LouisEly]

Boy, how did I miss Will Toffey? LHH 3B with decent power and a 48:30 BB/K ratio. Matt Carpenter potential there. I'd be all about that.

 

Updated guesses:

 

1st (#9): DL Hall, LHP, HS; David Peterson, LHP, Oregon; Shane Baz, RHP, HS

(wouldn't be upset with Sam Carlson, Pavin Smith, or Bukauskas)

1b (#34): Brendon Little, LHP, JC; Hans Crouse, RHP, HS; Mark Vientos, 3B/SS, HS

2nd (#46): Trevor Stephan, RHP, Arkansas; MJ Melendez, C, HS; Chris Seise, SS, HS

3rd (#84): Kevin Merrell, SS/2B, South Florida; Will Toffey, 3B, Vanderbilt; David Banuelos, C, Long Beach St.

4th (#114): Daulton Varsho, C, UW-Milwaukee; Terry Fuller, 1B, HS; Landon Leach, RHP, HS

5th (#144): Oliver Jaskie, LHP, Michigan; Seth Lonsway, LHP, HS; Garrett Cave, RHP, Tampa

6th (#174): (senior signs) Ben Breazeale, C, Wake Forest; Phoenix Sanders, RHP, South Florida; Robbie Coman, C, Virginia

 

Some other senior signs: Brendan Rodgers, 3B, Tennessee; Jake Stone, OF, Fresno St.; Daniel Pitts, OF, Cal Poly Pomona; Troy Dixon, C, St. John's; Mac Lozer, RHP, Michigan

[Eye Black]

Interesting twist this morning in the MLB.com Mock Draft in that both Callis and Mayo project Keston Hiura to go 5th overall to the Braves in an underslot deal.

 

They also both now have Kyle Wright now going outside the top five overall.

 

Mayo has the Brewers taking Jordon Adell while Callis projects the Brewers taking Austin Beck.

[Never Outhustled]

I'll take anybody but Pavin Smith. He's a clone of his Virginia teammate last year, Matt Thaiss. Nobody would be excited if we had Thaiss right now. When did we get so excited about grounding out to 2nd?

[young guns]

What time does the draft start?

[Eye Black]

What time does the draft start?

MLB Network coverage begins at 5:00pm CT, the selections start at 6:00pm CT.

[Humans Need Water]

Personally, I'm enjoying lines like "and we all know what dominant relievers bring at the deadline!" which have become rampant around here .

I can't speak to what's been rampant around here or not but there are a few guys in the Brewers system that absolutely have the potential to be very, very good MLB relievers. Kodi being one of them.

[Humans Need Water]

This is what I'm getting at with falling in love with one stat and ignoring the big picture. I'm wondering if advanced analytics have gotten to the point where some are falling in love with one or two niche numbers but overlooking the big picture.

 

I don't know about that. It was always my understanding that a tenant of the modern metrics movement was that there is no singular perfect statistic and that one should use multiple statistics to evaluate a player. I would think, to a very large degree, that most folks on this board wold adhere to that tenet. Just because someone uses a particular stat to refute a point does not mean they only took that one stat into account.

 

Likewise, Colbyjack just confirmed a long held belief of mine that actual, professional, talent evaluators use different metrics (and probably in a much different way) than any of us armchair analysts even understand. If it was as simple as collecting stats and running them through a couple of formulas, 90% of the folks on this site would have a different profession. I also think in-person scouting gets discounted way too much. I can have all the stats in the world on a player but I still crave all of the in-person reports I can find (and no, I don't think watching video is the equivalent of actually watching a game).

 

The case of Mr. Nottingham is interesting. Is the real Nottingham the one of the first 60 AB's or the one of the last 90 AB's?

Someone mentioned an inflated OBP for Nottingham due to a high number of HBP's. Things is, 60% of those abnormally high HBP's came during the first 60 AB's when his numbers were horrific. His statistical surge over his last 90 AB's is in no way inflated by a fluky HBP number.

 

I'm not advocating for or against Mr. Nottingham. What I am saying is that context does matter but even then we really are just guessing. Sure, we can make pretty accurate judgements on players whose statistics fall to the extremes. The problem is the vast majority of players fall somewhere in the middle. How do we know that organizations haven't developed strong correlations that suggest a players exit velocity at AA is a better indicator of future success than a players K% at AA. The answer is that we don't and as Colbyjack suggested, they just may have data along that line.

It's long been this way with fans in general going back to when WAR began. I haven't been reading this site very long but it's rare when someone goes beyond a couple metrics. It seems like people enjoy their 1-2 stats/metrics to paint a picture.

 

If people want to get a sense of how a player is performing they have to get their hands dirty and dig into a lot of different stats/metrics. "Big picture" isn't 220BA and sub-700 OPS. That's the opposite actually. "Big picture" is taking all these little metrics/numbers and piecing them together to tell a story combined with actually watching them play and understanding how they're grasping knowledge and applying it (which most of us don't have that luxury of doing for minor leaguers). When digging into Nottingham his April numbers on the surface were junk. But he still cut his K rate by 10% and his approach changed as he had around a 8% increase in balls up the middle over last year, etc. Even though the numbers on the surface didn't show it, he was an improved hitter. A few times per week I'd go to gamecast and see what he did and every night there was 1 or 2 line outs or sharp hit balls for an out. Since May 1 he's slashing 278/356/790 (BA/OBP/OPS) with a 7.8% BB rate, 18.6% K rate, 132 wRC+. Having a more middle approach allows him to stay back longer and have greater success than previously at this level. His improvements on the defensive side have been tremendous. Analyzing catchers is different from all other positions because of the steep learning curve therefore age at level matters more. Typically, offense also takes a backseat when that happens and he's been very young for the AA level while also putting in an absurd amount of work on the defensive side (and it's showing). As this season progresses and next season moves along you'll start to see greater success on both sides of the ball. Nottingham is far from being a finished product but it's also shortsighted to give up on him as if he spends this year and the next 2yrs between AA/AAA allowing everything to come together then he'd still be a starting MLB catcher at age 25. Bandy/Susac are 27. Pina was 29 when the season started.

 

Back to the thread, Faedo has great command of his pitches and can consistently throw his filthy slider for strikes. 92-96 fastball is good obviously. He's a safe pick. High floor, low ceiling. His nonverbal cues on the mound speak volumes to the type of competitor and pitcher he is. Adell is the name we hear over and over in mocks and if you think he can be a decent hitter then you take him as the rest of the tools are there. I like Pavin Smith. Compact swing with power, strong understanding of the zone, strong barrel to ball skills, lefty hitter, fields well. Has improved season over season. There's a handful of others I like as well. I won't question who these guys select because they understand a lot more about them than I do.

[MrTPlush]

I think a few deals get done in the first 8 picks to give us a large group of players to pick from. With that I really doubt the Brewers pick a guy for underslot reasons. They have always been connected to Beck and I think he might fall to them. If not him Faedo really impressed the other day and I could easily seen him as another main option that they have been connected to a lot. I really don't buy the Adell connection.

 

Right now I think Faedo.

[JosephC]

Draft works out pretty nicely by my own personal perspective. I like more of the pitchers at #9 but at #34 and #46 I liked the bats more. Did some work on rounds 3 - 5 and like the pitchers more in that area. So it balanced out fairly well for me. But now it's almost a guarantee that the Brewers will draft hitter (Austin Beck?), pitcher (Tristan Beck?), pitcher (Wil Crowe?) and then 3 more hitters.

 

I'm hoping for something like:

 

#9 - RHP-Shane Baz - Concordia Lutheran HS - Tomball, TX

#34 - OF-Tristen Lutz - Martin HS - Arlington, TX

#46 - OF-Brent Rooker - Mississippi State

#84 - RHP-Landon Leach - Pickering HS - Ajax, Ont.

#114 - RHP-Colton Hock - Stanford

#144 - RHP-Cory Abbott - Loyola Marymount

[JosephC]

Interesting twist this morning in the MLB.com Mock Draft in that both Callis and Mayo project Keston Hiura to go 5th overall to the Braves in an underslot deal.

 

They also both now have Kyle Wright now going outside the top five overall.

 

Mayo has the Brewers taking Jordon Adell while Callis projects the Brewers taking Austin Beck.

 

When going though the community mock I looked up some info on the Twins and the writers up there gave me the impression that McKay has been the favorite all along. We'll see what happens tonight. After that I had Greene to the Reds but never really considered the possibility that the Padres would take Gore over Wright. At the time it seemed like Greene-Wright-McKay had such a big lead over the field that they were locked in to be the first three picks. But the more I think about it, Gore probably does have a higher ceiling than Wright so if it goes McKay, Greene...then it wouldn't be that surprising to see Wright fall down the board a bit. That being said, I don't think it would be the best move for the Braves to pass on talent like Wright and go for an under-slot deal at #5.

 

The Mayo comments on the Braves pick is killing me. Tristen Lutz? Really? He can't be talking about the Braves giving Lutz an above-slot deal at #41 because he isn't going to make it that far. I was hoping to have a chance at Lutz at #34 and now he gets a minor mention at #5? I see one has him at #26 and one has him at #29. But neither have Blayne Enlow or Drew Waters in the top 30 so hopefully one of those two make it to #34.

 

Very surprised that Griffin Canning is not mentioned in either, although he has to have been slipping (but slightly) over the past couple of weeks. I'd love to have a chance at him at #34. Not the biggest guy, but outside of that a really solid prospect.

[MrTPlush]

Couple more thoughts:

 

1) I am not really a fan of drafting a high school bat #9. It sounds like there are some toolsy ones to be had with our other Top 50 picks. Unless one really feels confident a Beck/Adell can be a super star it might be better to wait.

 

2) It will be interesting to see where Pavin Smith is taken and how he does in the coming years. Seems like most on the forum either hates him or loves him.

[splitterpfj]

My first guess on the Brewers' top pick:

 

Brendan McKay, LHP, Louisville

 

When I said this, it was just a guess, and the response here was flat - now look where McKay is projected.

 

It just shows how fluid the process is, and how quickly perceptions can change - here's hoping the Brewers, "guess right" a lot in the next few days.

[And That]

Part 12 of player profiles:

 

• *Hans Crouse
  *Jacob Gonzalez
  *Asa Lacy
  *Evan Skoug
  *Garrett Cave
  *Taylor Walls
  *Evan Steele
  *Tyler Freeman
  *Joey Morgan
  *Jake Mangum

[Humans Need Water]

I forgot to mention this before, as I know LouisEly brought up his name as someone he liked, but there have been several players that have stood out as part of the college postseason and Long Beach State catcher David Banuelos is one of them. I was aware of Banuelos before (you can read his first-hand report w/ video here: https://www.perfectgame.org/Players/PlayerProfile_CollegeReports.aspx?ID=286882&cpr=485#485), but his defense really stood out, especially in postseason play when so much more is on the line. Basically you could plug this guy into a lineup, defensively, right now. The offensive upside is limited, but he does have some power, and he does know at least what he's doing at the plate (meaning he's not a complete liability). Catchers always seem to go a little earlier than where they should, so Banuelos likely would have to be taken in the 3rd round.

 

UIC catcher Rob Calabrese is another name to watch. While UWM's Daulton Varsho got more attention, Calabrese was actually a pretty talented recruit when he went to UIC, but had 2 pretty ho-hum seasons, and I believe dealt with some injuries as well. This year he stayed healthy and the bat really came around, and he had an All-American caliber season for the Flames (UIC had the 2nd best team ERA in the nation).

 

If you're looking for a pure third baseman (since there aren't many of them for this year's draft) Will Toffey of Vanderbilt could be your guy. His season is now over, but he really stepped up in the postseason and helped make himself some money. A lefthanded hitter, Toffey has always displayed a good approach at the plate. That doesn't mean he's too passive, as he'll let 'er rip when he gets a pitch he likes, leading to strikeouts and extra-base hits. He's a good overall athlete that fields third base well (he could probably play SS in a pinch) and also has decent wheels. He could be another interesting target in rounds 3-4 and could be a candidate to move up fairly quickly.

 

Drew Ellis had a huge weekend for Louisville, hitting 3 home runs in 2 games. He's now up to 20 I believe, and is incredibly quick to the ball and can catch up to premium fastballs. He had a huge spring, out-hitting his teammate McKay is pretty much every way you can, and could be another candidate to take in the 2-4 round range (probably closer to 2-3 now).

 

I know a lot of people have been all over Brent Rooker this spring, but Wake Forest's Stuart Fairchild is actually considered the best overall prospect with near 5-tool upside. He can run, hit for average, hit for power and plays good defense. He's not the biggest of players, but neither is Adam Haseley who could be off the board before the Brewers pick. Another college guy (you could probably sense where my preference is this year) that had a big season this year and could move fairly fast.

 

Fairchild's teammate, first bseman Gavin Sheets, is another player to watch and one I brought up a week or two ago. Very good size, advanced hitting mechanics, big league bloodlines and huge power potential.

 

Arizona outfielder Jared Oliva is a player I fell in love with at last year's College World Series. Build tall and rangy, physically he's a little similar to New Mexico's Luis Gonzalez, who Toby brought up before. Oliva still has room to grow into his frame, with broad shoulders and long, wiry strong limbs despite his lean and tapered frame. He can drive the ball to the gaps with enough speed to stretch extra bases.

 

While I think pitchers that have been previously discussed such as Seth Romero, Jacob Heatherly, Tristan Beck, Wil Crowe and Steven Jennings are all interesting options for the team's comp/2nd round picks, a few others that could be in the mix for there (or even later) are Socal prep RHPs Hagen Danner and Jeremiah Estrada as well as Stanford closer Colton Hock. Danner is an accomplished 2-way guy whose talents are probably better served on the mound full time, with good size and a full 3-pitch mix that keeps getting better. Estrada regressed a little this spring, with rumors of him having some off-field problems, but he has one of the livest arms in the country, and he showed incredibly well last summer on the tournament circuit. A great competitor, he also has a full complement of pitches and is among the prep pitchers I like the most. Hock, as noted, closed for Stanford but he has a legit 3-pitch mix and some wondered why he didn't start this spring. He's a big fella, like 6-5/220 or something like that, and very athletic. As a result of relieving he has a low mileage arm that could be developed as a starter, with some patience, as a pro.

I liked what I saw from Drew Ellis over the weekend. Not a fan of his upper body setup but once his hands are back from there on out he's pretty smooth and balanced; barrels up the ball. He looks like he's 35yrs old too.

 

Out of curiosity, you mentioned in the article that you weren't a fan of Faedo due to his overuse of this slider. If he alters his use of it where he's not heavily dependent on it then how does that change your opinion on him? I ask because it seems like that would be something that can pretty easily be changed and worked on in the minors.

[jw5511986]

I would love to get Banuelos, he's not a star but if he's not a Major Leaguer I would be stunned. I've resigned myself to a HS OF at 9.

[Harry Doyles JD]

Since no one really stands out to me as a must-take of those being talked about with the Brewers, given PG's rank and my admitted/acknowledged personal bias, I hope the Brewers pick David Peterson. Big, tall LHP with great K:BB and K/9 works for me. Brewers could use more LHP in general, even if he only projects to mid-rotation, that's fine by me. It would be cool to have such a close connection to a possible Brewer.

 

I may have missed it, but what is your close connection to David Peterson?

I work with/am friends with his mother-in-law....he's not married yet, but they are engaged.

[Eye Black]

The Baseball America Mock Draft 4.5 is up. Looks like they have some similarities to the one posted at MLB.com overnight. BA has McKay going first, Wright going at #5 to the Braves. Under slot deals projected here include HS OF Bubba Thompson to the Rays at #4 and Keston Hiura doing a deal with the A's at #6. They have the Brewers taking Austin Beck. One other notable update is it appears UCLA pitcher Griffin Canning is likely to fall out of the first round due to medical issues that have surfaced.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Interesting that in all three last minute Mock Drafts, Callis, Mayo (MLB.com) and Manual (BA) have RHP JB Bukauskas still available at pick No. 9. I think the Brewers will regret it if they pass on him.

 

They also all predict that OF Jordan "Jo" Adell will be available at our selection as well. He'd be #2 of players that would be available on my draft board, behind Bukauskas.

 

However, John Manual of Baseball America mentions that "Milwaukee was one of the most likely teams to make a deal". This is interesting and if true, leads me to believe that the Brewers could cut an underslot deal with a high school pitcher projected to go in the back of the 1st round and use the savings on later picks.

 

My guess and preference would be LHP Trevor Rogers out of New Mexico. Lefties with his arm don't grow on trees and he emulates his idol, Randy Johnson.

 

Should be fun.

[A Swing and A Drive]

Frankie Piliere on Twitter:

 

 

Says he thinks Brewers prefer Haseley or Beck or Rogers, with Pratto still a possibility.

 

Interesting.

[Eye Black]

Frankie Piliere on Twitter:

 

 

Says he thinks Brewers prefer Haseley or Beck or Rogers, with Pratto still a possibility.

 

Interesting.

It does seem like they have been quietly connected to Rogers for a while now which is why I went that direction with my prediction in our community mock. Haseley is interesting from the standpoint we have mostly assumed he would be off the board and haven't given him a lot of thought. Among guys not mentioned by Piliere here, I am still holding out a sliver of hope they are considering Shane Baz.

[paul253]

The Brewers don't need depth. They need talent. If they pass on superior talent to save money for later rounds I'll be furious.

[JDBrewCrew]

Final Mock from Scout and Tyler Blake Ward.

 

http://www.scout.com/mlb/scouting/story/1784270-2017-mlb-draft-mock-draft-3

 

9. Milwaukee Brewers - Jo Adell, OF, Ballard HS (KY).

I am going with the information out there, even though this pick is odd to me. First off, it would be a team drafting an outfielder for the third straight year and second, Adell is about as different as one can get from Ray and Clark. I understand the logic, as no one outside of Greene has a higher ceiling in this class.

 

34. Milwaukee Brewers - Luis Campusano, C, Cross Creek HS (GA)

The Brewers have a ton of talent in their minors. They nearly had the best catching prospect in baseball, but Jonathan Lucroy vetoed that trade. So here they can grab the top catcher in the class, who would instantly become their top catching prospect by far.

 

46. Milwaukee Brewers - Seth Romero, LHP, Houston

Brewers rolled the dice on Lucas Erceg last year, after his problems and being kicked off his team. They have three picks in the top 50 and can roll the dice on Romero who, without the character issues, would have been a top ten player.

[Austin Tatious]

My first guess on the Brewers' top pick:

 

Brendan McKay, LHP, Louisville

 

When I said this, it was just a guess, and the response here was flat - now look where McKay is projected.

 

It just shows how fluid the process is, and how quickly perceptions can change - here's hoping the Brewers, "guess right" a lot in the next few days.

 

 

Good to see you. Your contributions have been missed. Hope you will be around more.

[82brewcrew82]

The Brewers don't need depth. They need talent. If they pass on superior talent to save money for later rounds I'll be furious.

 

For me it really depends on what's available. The 9th best talent is not necessarily the same type of talent from draft to draft. It looks like this one, outside of the top handful, there is a decent drop off. In that case, If I can get payer A with B+ level talent, payer B with C+ talent and palyer C with C level talent or I can get players D, E and F with B- level talent, I might go with the second option there.