The 2017 MLB Draft Thread (#9 Pick + #34 & #46)

[And That]

Taylor Blake Ward at Scout just put out his 2-round mock

 

9. Milwaukee Brewers - D.L. Hall, LHP, Valdosta HS (GA)

 

The deals are beginning to shake up the draft, and beyond the fifth pick, things are going to get tricky. Milwaukee took long looks at Jordon Adell, Beck, and Hall. With three picks within the first 50, Milwaukee is looking to attain the biggest talent pool out of the draft, even if it means going a few picks underslot. Don't sleep on any Adell rumors with Milwaukee.

 

34. Milwaukee Brewers - Tristan Beck, RHP, Stanford

 

Although he hasn't pitched this year, Beck - a draft-eligible sophomore - was a top-10 pitcher before a back injury took him out for the year. Milwaukee drafted Beck out of Corona, even with the knowledge that he'd pass and head for Stanford. The relationship stuck for a lengthy time, and it sounds like they're ready to try and lure him away from a junior year at Stanford again, where his brother will be, but Mark Marquess will not be.

 

46. Milwaukee Brewers - Steven Jennings, RHP, Dekalb County HS (TN)

 

They already got their tooled up outfielder and best available college pitcher in this draft already. Time to take a risk at the next best available player who's athletic.

 

Seems like something got switched at the last second.

[colbyjack]

Make no mistake about is, Jordon Adell is ridiculously talented as he's the type of player that you'd hate to pass on only to see him develop into a perennial star. His tools are very much similar to Justin Upton's at a similar stage of their respective careers, but the bat obviously isn't as developed otherwise, as others have said, there would be no way he would last to No. 9. However, if the Brewers do take him there could easily be 8 other teams kicking themselves in a few years. Or maybe not, that's the tough thing about any boom or bust prospect. Austin Beck is in a similar situation, although Adell has more of a proven background since he played on the showcase/tournament circuit last summer and at least proved he can handle elite pitching.

 

I personally would take one of the riskier high school hitters/athletes over some of the high school pitchers being discussed (with the exception of Shane Baz, who one scout told me looked like Josh Beckett this spring, which is really, really high praise).

 

I love the idea of Tristan Beck at #34, if he makes it that far. If he would have been healthy this spring he may not have been available at #9.

 

One thing I think is incredibly important that a few have brought up recently, but the Brewers REALLY have to do a better job with their early picks. Easier said than done of course, as it's not like they're intentionally trying to mess them up. However, if it weren't for the success of so many prospects they have acquired from other teams their farm system would still be pretty bare right now (even if I do like Ray, Erceg, among others).

[LouisEly]

That's the thing - they've gone boom or bust. And it's been all bust - Coulter, Roache, Devin Williams, Neuhaus, Medeiros, Gatewood, Harrison, Clark... none of those guys were high floor. Let's go back to that 2014 draft thread where everyone was so excited about the ceilings of Medeiros, Gatewood, and Harrison. Not exactly panning out.

[Oxy]

Gatewood is looking good. There is still hope for Harrison and Clark.

[Noche]

That's the thing - they've gone boom or bust. And it's been all bust - Coulter, Roache, Devin Williams, Neuhaus, Medeiros, Gatewood, Harrison, Clark... none of those guys were high floor. Let's go back to that 2014 draft thread where everyone was so excited about the ceilings of Medeiros, Gatewood, and Harrison. Not exactly panning out.

 

Every single one of those players has had success and most are having good seasons as we speak. Injuries have derailed the 2017 season (Williams) and careeer (Roache, Neuhaus) of the others.

[LouisEly]

Gatewood and Harrison are having a good but not great season. Medeiros is having an OK season. The rest... are not.

 

My point is that you can't praise drafting high risk players and then complain that they haven't drafted well when those players don't pan out.

[paul253]

The more I red up on scouting reviews the more I'm liking Baz for our pick. Plenty of ceiling and not at a position we are loaded at. MLB.com has him with 3 pitches 60 grade or better.

[Noche]

You said they are all busts when it's clearly untrue. Absurd statement.

 

And the fact that you seem to ignore age and league context in your player evals is inexcusable when the information is readily available.

[JosephC]

Coulter is another player that got off to a terrible start and has hit pretty well since. Has slashed .265/.333/.500/.833 in May/June and has already homered 3 times this month. Likely does not live up to his first round billing, but IMO has rebuilt his value to where he can be viewed as a backup MLB corner outfielder or could be used as a decent second or third piece in a trade (depending on how big of a fish the GM is looking to land).

[LouisEly]

You said they are all busts when it's clearly untrue. Absurd statement.

 

And the fact that you seem to ignore age and league context in your player evals is inexcusable when the information is readily available.

Your first statement - correct. I meant that in a context that none of them have been what I define as successful so far.

 

Second statement - incorrect. I'm very well aware of age and league context, but being young for a league is absolutely no guarantee that the player is going to get better or handle the jump to AA. You don't need to look any further than Tyrone Taylor, who put up some pretty good numbers for a 19-year-old in low A and a 20-year-old in high-A (in a pitcher-friendly park) but has not translated that to success in two seasons in AA.

 

My definition of "successful" and a "great season" is one in which there are zero qualifiers about performance. If you have to say, "but, his age..." or "but, (list some obscure stat)", then it isn't a great season. And that is very, very excusable thank you.

 

(I also appreciate your politeness and grace in your post. Keep on!)

[paul253]

Alex Faedo looking darn good vs Wake Forrest in the super regionals today. 9 Ks thru four innings and topping out at 96. Hopefully the lightning delay doesn't last too long and he can get back out there. I still prefer pitching and Faedo, Bukauskas and Baz are the three guys I like best.

[And That]

And installment 11 of player profiles:

 

• *Nate Pearson
  *Caden Lemons
  *Connor Wong
  *Trevor Stephan
  *Cordell Dunn
  *Riley Mahan
  *Sam McMillan
  *Will Gaddis
  *Riley Ottsesen
  *Cade Cavalli

[Humans Need Water]

You said they are all busts when it's clearly untrue. Absurd statement.

 

And the fact that you seem to ignore age and league context in your player evals is inexcusable when the information is readily available.

Your first statement - correct. I meant that in a context that none of them have been what I define as successful so far.

 

Second statement - incorrect. I'm very well aware of age and league context, but being young for a league is absolutely no guarantee that the player is going to get better or handle the jump to AA. You don't need to look any further than Tyrone Taylor, who put up some pretty good numbers for a 19-year-old in low A and a 20-year-old in high-A (in a pitcher-friendly park) but has not translated that to success in two seasons in AA.

 

My definition of "successful" and a "great season" is one in which there are zero qualifiers about performance. If you have to say, "but, his age..." or "but, (list some obscure stat)", then it isn't a great season. And that is very, very excusable thank you.

 

(I also appreciate your politeness and grace in your post. Keep on!)

But a player's age is very relevant to the conversation. Nottingham didn't have a good year at all last year, but him being 3yrs young for AA level combined with playing the position with the steepest learning curve means you have to look beyond just the numbers on the surface and dig into a lot of the analytics (I'm sure there's plenty out there that an org looks at that the public doesn't know about or pay attention too) and how that player improved as the season went along. A player can still perform much better than their numbers say and you could see that with Nottingham in April this year, as example. You're correct in that age is no guarantee for future success and improvement but that's where skill set and daily improvements made over the course of a season come into play more than stats on the surface for that specific player. As fans we don't always get to see that though.

 

I never understood the hype about Taylor, or Coulter for that matter, when seeing them in person during spring training in 2016. I watched an hour long fielding/BP session that included Clark, Taylor, Coulter, Roache, Harrison in the OF and Diaz, Gatewood, Betancourt, Cooper, Lara in the IF. Taylor did nothing impressive - never understood why people thought highly of him. Never understood how he was a Top 100 nor how he'd be a future MLB player. Coulter literally had a BP session on an open field that rivaled that of a terrible HS player. I literally couldn't believe what I was seeing. This is why I don't care whatsoever about Coulter moving forward because there is no way a future MLB player can have a BP session like that at age 22, that's how bad it was. With everybody else, outside of Betancourt and Lara, you "see something there". You know there's MLB talent you just need them to put it together. Some do, some don't. I thought Gatewood was fine in the field but offensively I never liked him and never thought he'd become anything. His new swing mechanics and approach are a complete 180 and will put him back on track for success. Doing this 1.5yrs young for A+ is great but seeing if he can translate it to AA is even more telling of his future. But his new mechanics/approach combined with his power give him that chance for sure whereas Taylor didn't have that. Kodi just turned 21 and even though people will view him in a negative light because he's a 1st rd pick with high expectations, if he gets moved to the pen (as I've been saying he should for well over a year now) he could be great there. And even though he'd be a reliever and not a starter, as a 1st rd pick, that's fine in my view because he has the stuff to be dominant and we all know what dominant relievers bring at the deadline!!

 

That said, Faedo looked really good today and I wouldn't be mad at all if the Brewers took him.

[MrTPlush]

I also like Faedo, Bukauskas, and Baz.

 

If I had to rate I would go:

Faedo

Baz

Bukauskas

Hall

 

I really like Baz, but I just have a hard time drafting a HS pitcher Top 10. I would take Faedo preferably.

[Oxy]

Personally, I'm enjoying lines like "and we all know what dominant relievers bring at the deadline!" which have become rampant around here .

[Never Outhustled]

That's the thing - they've gone boom or bust. And it's been all bust - Coulter, Roache, Devin Williams, Neuhaus, Medeiros, Gatewood, Harrison, Clark... none of those guys were high floor. Let's go back to that 2014 draft thread where everyone was so excited about the ceilings of Medeiros, Gatewood, and Harrison. Not exactly panning out.

 

All those picks were pre-Stearns, so all that is irrelevant. All new people in charge. They should take who they think is the best, and the mistakes of the past is irrelevant.

[reillymcshane]

The big buzz now is that the Twins are leaning towards McKay.

 

Doesn't really affect Milwaukee, but it makes for some intriguing drama.

[Eye Black]

In case you haven't had a chance to read it yet check out Madison.com's article on tomorrow's draft. It includes several insightful quotes from board contributor, Patrick Ebert (colbyjack).

 

Milwaukee will have some intriguing options with No. 9 pick in the draft - By Dennis Punzel

[Eye Black]

Maybe it is the anticipation of the draft mounting, but I think tomorrow carries some high stakes for the Brewers in terms of putting together the perennial championship contending roster we all hope to see built over the next decade. Patrick mentioned this in his previous post as well as the linked article, but the Brewers really need to hit on some of these high draft picks. They will be a lot better off if they can draft and develop a handful of players the caliber of Lewis Brinson and Luis Ortiz than they will be by giving up significant assets to acquire them down the road. Having three selections inside the top 50 is a rare opportunity, and in a way the #34 and #46 selections are nearly as important as the #9 pick. Finding future quality major league talent becomes extremely more difficult after the first couple rounds of the draft. The odds tell us they aren't likely to hit on all three picks, but I am hoping they can find at least one future organizational difference maker among those first three selections.

[LouisEly]

In market research, one of the things you learn quickly is to be very careful about presenting statistics to marketers and executives because it is not uncommon for them to latch on to one number (that typically aligns with what they want to believe) and overlook the big picture.

 

I get that OPS, K/BB rates are not the end-all, be-all predictors of future performance. I get that park (Brevard County - notoriously tough on RHH, Colorado Springs - hitter friendly) and league (Cal league - very hitter friendly) factors need to be taken into consideration (and I take them into consideration). However, those stats tend to be the "big picture" stats for hitters.

 

I've heard about Nottingham improving, but when I look at the "big picture" stats I see a sub-.700 OPS and a BB rate <10%. His K rate has improved significantly (30% last year down to 19% this year), and he has a nice differential between BA and OBP, but that differential is driven by an abnormally high number of HBP (already more this year than all of last year). I get that he's two years younger than league average, and that's encouraging. But to me, the big picture says, "encouraging, but still not good", because, generally speaking, a sub-.700 OPS and walk rate of <10% at AA don't translate to future major league success. There's an old quote - "Potential is a French word - it means you're not worth a damn yet."

 

There was another thread where I got into a debate with someone about Corey Ray, and that person brought up some stat that showed he hits the ball harder than average for the league or something to that extent. That's great, but one of the issues with him is his K rate - he's striking out 32% of the time. It's nice that he hits the ball harder than most in his league, but 32% of the time he doesn't hit the ball at all because he strikes out, making that stat less relevant. I get that strikeouts aren't the end-all, be-all either, but there is a big difference between striking out 32% of the time in A-ball and striking out 30% of the time in AAA (Phillips this year) and striking out 26% of the time in the majors (Santana this year). Yes, hitters improve, but so do pitchers as you move up in leagues - you have to not just account for the player's age, but also the improvement in level of competition at the next level.

 

This is what I'm getting at with falling in love with one stat and ignoring the big picture. I'm wondering if advanced analytics have gotten to the point where some are falling in love with one or two niche numbers but overlooking the big picture.

[MilwaukeeBeers]

I'm throwing out Faedo now as a possibility after watching him. His velocity seemed to be back to normal (93-96 on FB). In 4 IP he had 9 Ks, 1 walk, and 4 Hs. That slider is absolutely filthy. I go back and forth with him and Baz if the target is RHP.

[colbyjack]

Thanks Eye Black, I'm actually rather humbled by that feature as Dennis quoted me exclusively for that piece.

 

One part of my conversation with Mr. Punzel that wasn't included in the feature has to do with statistics. The one interesting thing I find in scouting with stats is that I've been told a lot of the metrics people are looking at numbers that most fans easily have access to, at least not the ones you find at milb.com, baseball-reference, etc. In the business I am I have spoken with some people and each club has different things they look at, and are willing to pay top dollar to acquire. Exit velocity and spin rates are just the beginning of some of this, and some of the quotes from the Brewers scouting director back up just how much a lot of this is almost "experimental" at this point in time. Basically, it's not just the guys BB:K rate or OPS against Friday night arms, it goes much deeper than that in ways I can't even comprehend at times. And, the teams aren't willing to talk about it since so many of them believe it could be a way to help separate themselves from everyone else, but I can decipher some of those interests by some of the requests we received from MLB clubs.

 

Anyway, if you like the draft we at Perfect Game just posted our last 'State Snapshot' (Canada and Puerto Rico) as part of our draft preview content. Aside from our last mock draft, set to hit the site tomorrow, that's a wrap. I know most of it is subscriber content, but that has everything to do with the amount of time and effort it takes to produce that content. If you do take the time to sign up, thank you, and more important I hope you enjoy what we have to offer. I know I'm biased, but I personally don't think any other publication comes close to providing what we do.

 

Here's the link to the preview content that contains all of the links:

 

https://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=13752

[colbyjack]

I forgot to mention this before, as I know LouisEly brought up his name as someone he liked, but there have been several players that have stood out as part of the college postseason and Long Beach State catcher David Banuelos is one of them. I was aware of Banuelos before (you can read his first-hand report w/ video here: https://www.perfectgame.org/Players/PlayerProfile_CollegeReports.aspx?ID=286882&cpr=485#485), but his defense really stood out, especially in postseason play when so much more is on the line. Basically you could plug this guy into a lineup, defensively, right now. The offensive upside is limited, but he does have some power, and he does know at least what he's doing at the plate (meaning he's not a complete liability). Catchers always seem to go a little earlier than where they should, so Banuelos likely would have to be taken in the 3rd round.

 

UIC catcher Rob Calabrese is another name to watch. While UWM's Daulton Varsho got more attention, Calabrese was actually a pretty talented recruit when he went to UIC, but had 2 pretty ho-hum seasons, and I believe dealt with some injuries as well. This year he stayed healthy and the bat really came around, and he had an All-American caliber season for the Flames (UIC had the 2nd best team ERA in the nation).

 

If you're looking for a pure third baseman (since there aren't many of them for this year's draft) Will Toffey of Vanderbilt could be your guy. His season is now over, but he really stepped up in the postseason and helped make himself some money. A lefthanded hitter, Toffey has always displayed a good approach at the plate. That doesn't mean he's too passive, as he'll let 'er rip when he gets a pitch he likes, leading to strikeouts and extra-base hits. He's a good overall athlete that fields third base well (he could probably play SS in a pinch) and also has decent wheels. He could be another interesting target in rounds 3-4 and could be a candidate to move up fairly quickly.

 

Drew Ellis had a huge weekend for Louisville, hitting 3 home runs in 2 games. He's now up to 20 I believe, and is incredibly quick to the ball and can catch up to premium fastballs. He had a huge spring, out-hitting his teammate McKay is pretty much every way you can, and could be another candidate to take in the 2-4 round range (probably closer to 2-3 now).

 

I know a lot of people have been all over Brent Rooker this spring, but Wake Forest's Stuart Fairchild is actually considered the best overall prospect with near 5-tool upside. He can run, hit for average, hit for power and plays good defense. He's not the biggest of players, but neither is Adam Haseley who could be off the board before the Brewers pick. Another college guy (you could probably sense where my preference is this year) that had a big season this year and could move fairly fast.

 

Fairchild's teammate, first bseman Gavin Sheets, is another player to watch and one I brought up a week or two ago. Very good size, advanced hitting mechanics, big league bloodlines and huge power potential.

 

Arizona outfielder Jared Oliva is a player I fell in love with at last year's College World Series. Build tall and rangy, physically he's a little similar to New Mexico's Luis Gonzalez, who Toby brought up before. Oliva still has room to grow into his frame, with broad shoulders and long, wiry strong limbs despite his lean and tapered frame. He can drive the ball to the gaps with enough speed to stretch extra bases.

 

While I think pitchers that have been previously discussed such as Seth Romero, Jacob Heatherly, Tristan Beck, Wil Crowe and Steven Jennings are all interesting options for the team's comp/2nd round picks, a few others that could be in the mix for there (or even later) are Socal prep RHPs Hagen Danner and Jeremiah Estrada as well as Stanford closer Colton Hock. Danner is an accomplished 2-way guy whose talents are probably better served on the mound full time, with good size and a full 3-pitch mix that keeps getting better. Estrada regressed a little this spring, with rumors of him having some off-field problems, but he has one of the livest arms in the country, and he showed incredibly well last summer on the tournament circuit. A great competitor, he also has a full complement of pitches and is among the prep pitchers I like the most. Hock, as noted, closed for Stanford but he has a legit 3-pitch mix and some wondered why he didn't start this spring. He's a big fella, like 6-5/220 or something like that, and very athletic. As a result of relieving he has a low mileage arm that could be developed as a starter, with some patience, as a pro.

[colbyjack]

I really like McKay, and I really like Kyle Wright. I think both could move quickly as pitchers. McKay makes everything look so easy and Wright has the upside of a true No. 1 or 2 starters at the MLB level.

 

However, as noted in the feature I'm quoted in, Hunter Greene has the chance to be a special/generational talent. I think it's a mistake to pass on him and I certainly hope it's not being done as a cost-savings measure by the Twins.

[82brewcrew82]

This is what I'm getting at with falling in love with one stat and ignoring the big picture. I'm wondering if advanced analytics have gotten to the point where some are falling in love with one or two niche numbers but overlooking the big picture.

 

I don't know about that. It was always my understanding that a tenant of the modern metrics movement was that there is no singular perfect statistic and that one should use multiple statistics to evaluate a player. I would think, to a very large degree, that most folks on this board wold adhere to that tenet. Just because someone uses a particular stat to refute a point does not mean they only took that one stat into account.

 

Likewise, Colbyjack just confirmed a long held belief of mine that actual, professional, talent evaluators use different metrics (and probably in a much different way) than any of us armchair analysts even understand. If it was as simple as collecting stats and running them through a couple of formulas, 90% of the folks on this site would have a different profession. I also think in-person scouting gets discounted way too much. I can have all the stats in the world on a player but I still crave all of the in-person reports I can find (and no, I don't think watching video is the equivalent of actually watching a game).

 

The case of Mr. Nottingham is interesting. Is the real Nottingham the one of the first 60 AB's or the one of the last 90 AB's?

Someone mentioned an inflated OBP for Nottingham due to a high number of HBP's. Things is, 60% of those abnormally high HBP's came during the first 60 AB's when his numbers were horrific. His statistical surge over his last 90 AB's is in no way inflated by a fluky HBP number.

 

I'm not advocating for or against Mr. Nottingham. What I am saying is that context does matter but even then we really are just guessing. Sure, we can make pretty accurate judgements on players whose statistics fall to the extremes. The problem is the vast majority of players fall somewhere in the middle. How do we know that organizations haven't developed strong correlations that suggest a players exit velocity at AA is a better indicator of future success than a players K% at AA. The answer is that we don't and as Colbyjack suggested, they just may have data along that line.