The 2017 MLB Draft Thread (#9 Pick + #34 & #46)

[reillymcshane]

Right now, I'm hoping Bukauskas drops to the Brewers. That would be a great addition.

 

Many people had the A's picking Bukauskas - but I am thinking the A's will go Pavin Smith. He seems like an Oakland kind of guy.

[reillymcshane]

Fangraphs mock draft:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-2017-mock-draft/

 

They have the Brewers taking Jo Adell

[3and2Fastball]

Fangraphs mock draft:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-2017-mock-draft/

 

They have the Brewers taking Jo Adell

 

That is who I'm hoping for! Ceiling is too high not to roll the dice. Plus if he is a bust offensively I think he can at least be a relief pitcher throwing high 90's

[And That]

Brewers enter home stretch in prep for Draft

 

"I don't want to give the impression that we are reinventing anything," Johnson said. "We're building on what Ray [Montgomery, who ran the Brewers' past two drafts before taking the title of vice president of scouting] has already started the last couple of years, and even some stuff we were doing when Bruce was here [the late Bruce Seid passed away in 2014].

 

"So we've been moving in this direction from a process perspective the last few years. We're going to try a few different ways of putting things together. We're going to experiment with some of that stuff."

 

Asked if he could be more detailed, Johnson said, "It is a hard question to answer without giving away what we hope we're doing that is better than other teams. We started last year, or even two years ago, using something of an analytics approach, because there is so much information available on these guys, you have to have some way to organize it. So this just really helps us organize this organization. We've been doing that for the past couple of years, but this is version 2.0 of that."

[Austin Tatious]

Good, we need as much fresh thinking in the process as possible. Scouting is the foundation and vital. But, ultimately, having a guy with intellectual horsepower to make smart big picture decisions is critical. The Brewer thought process has been a train wreck.

 

Since Jack Z left, it's been a comedy of errors. That's been almost a decade. Whereas, in the decade before that, the Brewers killed it, drafting Sheets, Fielder, Weeks, Hardy, Hart, Braun, Lucroy, Cain, Odorizzi, Brantley, Jeffress, Gallardo, even Lawrie and on and on. It's been a staggering dropoff, like a light switch went off.

 

Analytics are great, but it doesn't sound like you can get exit velocity and metrics like that. I wonder why baseball doesn't get 1,000 kids together at a combine and measure things like exit velocity, arm strength, physical tools, speed, measurements, and whatever else, plus do medicals. That way, you avoid a Dylan Covey. Maybe that's expensive, but you split the cost 30 ways and potentially save big money on the wrong bonus babies.

 

I'd also be running historical data on prior scouting. For example, if a high school pitcher has a live arm and lacks control, how often will that guy develop control if he's athletic. Or how about the guy with good control but lacks secondary pitches. How often does that guy develop the pitches. If you were comparing these attributes, which guys have a better shot. Or, evaluate a middling guy for a couple of years in college then lights it up as a junior. Is the longer haul the predictor or is it the light bulb turning on. You can plug in certain physical attributes and potentially mental to generate predictors using historical data.

 

I have my own ideas on these issues, in direct contrast to the Brewers' approach, but I'd wonder what the data shows.

[nate82]

Good, we need as much fresh thinking in the process as possible. Scouting is the foundation and vital. But, ultimately, having a guy with intellectual horsepower to make smart big picture decisions is critical. The Brewer thought process has been a train wreck.

 

Since Jack Z left, it's been a comedy of errors. That's been almost a decade. Whereas, in the decade before that, the Brewers killed it, drafting Sheets, Fielder, Weeks, Hardy, Hart, Braun, Lucroy, Cain, Odorizzi, Brantley, Jeffress, Gallardo, even Lawrie and on and on. It's been a staggering dropoff, like a light switch went off.

 

Analytics are great, but it doesn't sound like you can get exit velocity and metrics like that. I wonder why baseball doesn't get 1,000 kids together at a combine and measure things like exit velocity, arm strength, physical tools, speed, measurements, and whatever else, plus do medicals. That way, you avoid a Dylan Covey. Maybe that's expensive, but you split the cost 30 ways and potentially save big money on the wrong bonus babies.

 

I'd also be running historical data on prior scouting. For example, if a high school pitcher has a live arm and lacks control, how often will that guy develop control if he's athletic. Or how about the guy with good control but lacks secondary pitches. How often does that guy develop the pitches. If you were comparing these attributes, which guys have a better shot. Or, evaluate a middling guy for a couple of years in college then lights it up as a junior. Is the longer haul the predictor or is it the light bulb turning on. You can plug in certain physical attributes and potentially mental to generate predictors using historical data.

 

I have my own ideas on these issues, in direct contrast to the Brewers' approach, but I'd wonder what the data shows.

 

The data would tell you that you would have a better chance at winning putting all of your money on black 4 in roulette every time than finding anything you are suggesting. There are to many variables that can go wrong or go right to predict with any confidence if player A would develop versus player C. Not to mention that player A who was drafted 5-years ago is completely different than player B who is being drafted now.

 

Even going with physical attributes it still won't get you all that close to what you want. Basically scouts have been doing this for years. I have seen plenty of scouting reports that have compared players physically to Roger Clemens, Nolan Ryan, and others. These scouts were not wrong as they were physically just like them but the results never panned out for one reason or another. There are so many variables that you would need to take into account that the data at some point would just be useless garbage.

[ZBTMP]

With a week left before the draft thought I would take a stab at my preference list for the Brewers first selection. For this exercise I assumed five players are close to locks to be off the board before the Brewers pick, Hunter Greene, Brendan McKay, Kyle Wright, MacKenzie Gore, and Royce Lewis. With that in mind, below are the five players I would like to see in consideration next. I realize some of them will also be drafted before the Brewers pick, but at least two of them would be available at #9.

 

Player Pref List (Beyond top five expected to be taken)

 

J.B. Bukauskas, RHP, North Carolina - Despite some very recent struggles I think the arm is too special to pass up if he is available. Believe he is a starter, but the fall back would appear to be one heck of a reliever.

 

David Peterson, LHP, Oregon - The combination of command and stuff on a 6'6" college lefty seems too good to be true. I think he is a decent bet to make his way into a major league rotation by 2019, and he looks the part of a mid-rotation horse for a first division team.

 

Shane Baz, RHP, Concordia Lutheran HS (TX) - Combines a deep repertoire of pitches with elite velocity. High School pitchers are very risky, but with Baz the potential reward of adding a front of the rotation arm to the organization is probably worth the risk. A slight concern would be strong TCU commitment.

 

Keston Hiura, 2B/OF, UC-Irvine - If I had to pick one college hitter that I believe in above all others, here he is. I think he is going to be a special hitter, the type of doubles swing that will fit great as a future two hole hitter. He is likely going to need TJ surgery after the PRP injections apparently didn't do the trick with the elbow. TJ surgery doesn't completely scare teams away from drafting pitchers let alone a player who is going to be either a second baseman or corner outfielder.

 

Austin Beck, OF, North Davidson HS (NC) - If I was completely convinced his bat speed was the second coming of Clint Frazier I would probably have him further up my list. Even with excellent bat speed it seems like there are some legitimate contact concerns. Still, if the Brewers want to find a tooled up high school outfielder with the best combination of ceiling/floor in this draft this is probably their best chance.

 

 

Next Tier

 

Adam Haseley, OF, Virginia

 

Nick Pratto, 1B, Huntington Beach HS (CA)

 

Trevor Rodgers, LHP, Carlsbad HS (NM)

 

Sam Carlson, RHP, Burnsville HS (MN)

 

Preface: I'm not a scout, I don't pretend to be a scout, I just read a lot and watch some videos.

 

I like your list. I would make it Baz, Bukauskas, Beck. I like the highest ceiling possible.

 

I think I'd take Pavin Smith over everyone else you listed too, although I don't know a lot about the next tier guys. Peterson's ceiling seems low to me. shrug.

 

Sorry to rehash my objections to Pavin Smith, and Im being somewhat hypocritical as I thought the OPS objections to Ray were a bit much last season. BUT Haseley has seen the same pitching, play a more premium position, carries an OPS .150 points higher, and walks more. He has struck out 9 more times so there is that I guess. Pavin Smith just doesn’t possess the power to be a top 10 first basemen to me and doesnt possess the physical attributes to man the corner in the changing MLB.

I’d put Carlson somewhere in my top 5 but if the Brewers board matches this, I’d be pretty happy.

[And That]

I'll post the final aggregate top draft prospects lists in a few days, just expecting to make a few more minor tweaks. BA, PG, and MLB Pipeline all have their final lists out.

 

In the mean time, here's an update on who I have at the Brewers picks.

 

At the Brewers slots for the first five eight rounds, I currently have:

9. Pavin Smith, 4yr, 1B/LHP

34. Alex Lange, 4yr, RHP

46. Cal Mitchell, HS, OF/1B

84. Seth Corry, HS, LHP

114. Kyle Jacobsen, HS, OF

144. Austin Martin, HS, SS/2B

174. Jackson Rutledge, HS, RHP

204. Christian Robinson, HS, OF

234. Tyler Holton, 4yr (So.), LHP

 

Also will be returning full steam ahead with draft profiles shortly.

[And That]

Seventh set of draft profiles:

 

• *Alex Faedo
  *Bubba Thompson
  *Blayne Enlow
  *Morgan Cooper
  *Kevin Smith
  *Mason House
  *Tyler Johnson
  *Drew Rasmussen
  *Greg Deichmann
  *Devin Hairston

[CheezWizHed]

So, when does MLB move the draft to a Saturday and make it more "consumable" for viewers? I'm surprised this hasn't happened yet.

[Madhawk23]

Didn't they have it on a Thurs/Fri/Sat the past few years? Maybe I'm wrong, but I thought they were trying to get more interest in it by making it more of a late week/weekend deal? I guess not though, since it is starting on a Monday this year. Anyone know the logic behind this? Also, did I hear that they are only televising the 1st round this year? I thought they did 1st and 2nd on TV the past few years?

[And That]

Eighth set of player profiles:

 

• *Drew Waters
  *Tristen Lutz
  *Luke Heimlich
  *James Marinan
  *Joe Perez
  *Bryce Bonnin
  *Matt Whatley
  *Adam Oviedo
  *Joe Dunand
  *Tommy Mace

[The3rdManIn.com]

I really think the Brewers need to go with prep outfielder Jo Adell. Great talent with crazy potential.

 

http://www.the3rdmanin.com/2017-mlb-draft-brewers/

[MilwaukeeBeers]

The tools of Adell's are so loud that if you believe he has a chance to become a pro hitter you got to take him. I'm still not in that camp yet, but I am warming up to him.

Side-note I just looked up a picture of Jordan and the dude has 80 grade eyebrows.

[MrTPlush]

I have a really hard time getting on board with any OF pick at our spot. Austin Beck would be a fine choice, but after that I don't know. If given the choice I would actually take Jeren Kendall next over Jordan Adell. Jaren Kendall seems like a much safer pick if you want a questionable guy with a higher ceiling. Jaren Kendall is such a tease prospect. The tools are great, but the K rate and the fact after 3 years at college he still doesn't play great defense scares me that he won't hit enough to be an All-Star type bat and won't live up to the defensive ceiling scouts think he has.

[trwi7]

The only player I don't want is Pavin Smith. That would be so depressing at 9 overall. I could talk myself into any other player that we would pick at 9.

[IndyCrew]

I try to resist the urge of rooting against the Brewers picking a certain prospect. I did that with outfielders last year, and then they picked Ray. As soon as they picked him, I started rooting for him to do well. Now I'm hoping he becomes the next Brinson or Phillips, but the results aren't there yet, and I feel disappointed, but also vindicated in being against the Ray pick. It's a lot of inner turmoil for a player we won't really have a complete judgement on for a few more years.

 

Because of this, I'm going to single out the players I like (Bukauskis, Hall, Baz), and keep an open mind on players that make me nervous (Kendall, Adell, Faedo) or players that seem safe, but not spectacular (Smith, Peterson).

[And That]

Keith Law posted his "big board" of top 100 prospects yesterday.

 

It's an Insider piece so I won't post everything, but he has Logan Warmoth 12 spots high than anyone else I've seen. Hadn't really considered Warmoth for the Brewers pick, but I suppose it's possible.

 

He also has HS righties Steven Jennings (replete with "hand-egg" reference) and Kyle Hurt a lot higher than anyone else. Same with HS outfielder Mason House, who I completely agree is underrated by most.

[JosephC]

Using BA's top 500 list to determine which players would be available at Milwaukee's selections, I'd go with the following players:

 

9 - RHP - Shane Baz

I'd been big on Alex Faedo and I know he's coming off what will likely prove to be minor injury woes, but his peripherals just didn't quite stack up this season to be a top 10 pick. My favorite college pitcher at this point is David Peterson and I'd strongly consider him at #9. I also really like Pavin Smith but after seeing that Adam Haseley posted a better OBP and hit an additional home run this season...not really a knock on Smith as Haseley is top 10 material himself...just that combined with the fact that Smith's defensive upside is probably league average at first base...was just enough to tip me away from him at #9. As far as all the prep outfielders, I've seen enough reports on Beck and Adell which lead me to classify each of them as super high-ceiling prospects that also have very low floors. With the outfield depth in the Brewer's system, if I'm gambling on upside I'm going to do it on the mound. Every high school pitcher is a risk, but I like Baz' size, velocity and the fact that he's already shown a feel for throwing several different off-speed pitches. D.L. Hall's lack of size isn't a huge concern, but enough for me to lean towards Baz. If signability is an issue, then choice 1-B is David Peterson.

 

#34 - OF - Tristen Lutz

I was really hoping for RHP-Blayne Enlow or OF-Drew Waters to make it to this spot, but the closer it gets the more unlikely that looks. If he hits his upside, good chance Lutz will be a Wil Myers type hitter (career .257/.328/.436/.764 - hit 28 HR last year), but I'd expect Lutz to stick in a corner outfield spot and play at least league average defense.

 

#46 - 1B - Brent Rooker

Rooker would be the backup plan at #34, so I would love to get him here. .498 OBP, 1.325 OPS and 56 extra base hits (23 home runs) in 65 games as an SEC player? Sign me up.

 

In addition to the already mentioned players, two other strong candidates I really like in the #34/#46 area are SS-Jeter Downs and RHP-Steven Jennings.

[And That]

I was really hoping for RHP-Blayne Enlow or OF-Drew Waters to make it to this spot, but the closer it gets the more unlikely that looks.

I think there's a decent to good chance one or both are available at 34. I have Enlow at 25 and Waters at 33 in the aggregate rankings currently, but both are likely going to be bumped down a bit when the draft actually happens as teams go with rarer college bats earlier. Waters in particular, while I wouldn't put money on him being there, but I would be kind of surprised if he wasn't. Waters also has one of the larger standard deviations in rankings among players in the top 50. He's as high as 19 and as low as 54.

 

Then again, it only takes one team who really likes a guy to pop him before he's expected to go.

[MrTPlush]

I don't think not wanting an OFer allows you to feel vindicated when Corey Ray doesn't do well. You didn't want him purely on his position...not his actual skill set.

[3and2Fastball]

I continue to root for Jordan Adell at 9 for his amazing ceiling potential. Rooker in the 2nd or 3rd would be fantastic in my opinion. Both have obvious risks but the potential is huge

 

If not Adell then I'd hope for a pitcher at 9. Not overly thrilled with any of the pitching options at 9 though

[miggs721]

I don't think not wanting an OFer allows you to feel vindicated when Corey Ray doesn't do well. You didn't want him purely on his position...not his actual skill set.

 

 

What makes you think Corey Ray isn't going to do well? Thats a pretty odd take

[MrTPlush]

I don't think not wanting an OFer allows you to feel vindicated when Corey Ray doesn't do well. You didn't want him purely on his position...not his actual skill set.

 

 

What makes you think Corey Ray isn't going to do well? Thats a pretty odd take

 

Well I didn't say that. I said currently not future. Also I don't agree that he isn't doing well that is what one of the above posters hinted at saying it vindicated him of hating the pick.

[And That]

Even more player profiles, the ninth group:

 

• *Trevor Rogers
  *Matt Sauer
  *Clarke Schmidt
  *Steven Jennings
  *Stuart Fairchild
  *Kyle Hurt
  *Michael Gigliotti
  *Colton Hock
  *Dalton Guthrie
  *Kyle Jacobsen