The 2017 MLB Draft Thread (#9 Pick + #34 & #46)

[MilwaukeeBeers]

Thoughts on Heliot Ramos Patrick and AT? Those projected tools are absolutely tantalizing, but I doubt he gets to 34. I'm also in the Tristan Beck camp. A lot of interesting options with that competitive balance pick!

[Eye Black]

Curious to see if Hans Crouse falls at all due to the alleged social media incident before last week's playoff game versus JSerra HS. Came across

of the game that alluded to something involving Crouse leading up to the game, and then saw this article from the L.A. Times (JSerra tops Dana Hills, 3-0) that explained using a little more detail of Crouse's actions.

 

Excerpt from the linked article...

 

But there was plenty of drama before the game, because Crouse sent a message via a social media video directing profanities at JSerra Coach Brett Kay that the Dolphins were coming for him and the Lions.

 

Dana Hills Coach Tom Faris said he was aware of the video and would take disciplinary action. But Crouse was allowed to pitch.

 

"I don't think he's happy with me and I'm not happy with him," Kay said of Faris. "If [Crouse is] over at our school, he's expelled. The kid is absolutely good enough for who he is as a baseball player. He shouldn't have to do those things."

[And That]

I'm going to start posting these in a blog so as not to clutter this thread even more, but here are 10 short scouting reports I wrote on the following players:

 

• *MacKenzie Gore
  *DL Hall
  *Adam Haseley
  *Heliot Ramos
  *Evan White
  *Brendon Little
  *Jacob Heatherly
  *Hagen Danner
  *Alex Scherff
  *Jacob Pearson

[rwa12]

Toby or Colby,

 

Do you guys have any thoughts on Chad Spanberger from Arkansas? He's a local kid, not even sure if he's draft eligible...

[Eye Black]

Speaking of, I know I have professed my interest in guys like Hiura and Pavin Smith in the past, but two other pure hitters I really like are Evan White of Kentucky and Gavin Sheets of Wake Forest. White is a versatile player, somewhat similar to Darin Erstad in that he can play 1B at a very high level defensively but also can play CF. Sheets is a big fella, 6-foot-5 or so, a LHH whose dad also played in the big leagues. Sheets is a great approach and pretty special power. He hasn't been mentioned much but I could see him even sneaking into the first round (and am actually a little surprised he hasn't been discussed more often to do so).

Which college bat do you think has the best chance to develop into an elite hitter as a professional?

 

Based solely on offensive profile it seems like Keston Hiura should be a top ten draft pick. I know he has injury and positional concerns, but Hiura looks like a future doubles machine. Taking him without having a true defensive position would seem somewhat out of the Cubs playbook of drafting bat-first college hitters like Kyle Schwarber and Ian Happ. As far as Hiura's elbow issues, if the Brewers were convinced he could fix his elbow through TJ surgery (or other means) this summer, would he be worth taking a chance on at #9? Seems like the kind of hitter that we may be asking in a few years how he lasted as long as he did.

[colbyjack]

Hans Crouse is a pretty excitable young man. He doesn't mean any harm by his comments and JSerra's coach, Brett Kay (who is a really good guy) know that. Age and maturity will help channel Crouse's competitiveness.

 

MilwaukeeBeers, Heliot Ramos is actually one of the top draft picks that I have not seen in person. I've seen video and am well aware of his reports, but he's a very good all-around athlete with surprising speed and overall quickness. The arm is average and he can put a charge in the ball, but my understanding is that you have to see him on the right day as that's the matter of falling in love with his talents or not.

 

Chad Spanberger is an impressive physical specimen. Going back to his HS days he has always towered over others, especially the vertically challenged like myself. He is draft eligible this year and obviously has done a lot to help his profile in the SEC tournament. The power is very, very real, and it's good to see him finally putting up big numbers as his production hasn't matched his profile the past few years. However, the swing is very long and he comes up empty a lot, meaning he's going to strikeout a ton at the next level unless he drastically improves his approach. That said, he has made some impressive strides this year and could be a 3TO dream player similar to Russell Branyan. While Spanberger did play catcher in high school he's likely limited to 1B now.

 

Eye Black, it's hard for me to choose between Hiura and Smith. I'd probably go Hiura just because I think he has a slightly better chance to be a "special" hitter, but Smith's overall profile (and lack of injury/uncertainty) is more appealing.

[rwa12]

Thanks Colby! Late round pick? UDFA? Where does he profile?

[And That]

Ten more short scouting reports posted on the blog:

 

• *Hunter Greene
  *Logan Warmoth
  *Alex Lange
  *Wil Crowe
  *Tristan Beck
  *Cole Brannen
  *Kevin Merrell
  *Michael Mercado
  *Daniel Tillo
  *Jeremiah Estrada

[And That]

And ten more:

 

• *Kyle Wright
  *Austin Beck
  *Keston Hiura
  *Shane Baz
  *David Peterson
  *Nick Allen
  *Tanner Burns
  *Quentin Holmes
  *MJ Melendez
  *Cal Mitchell

[Austin Tatious]

Nice work. I have been reading them all. Good resource in one spot.

[LouisEly]

I've been on a roll with these lately, so here goes. Last year I got Erceg (correct round) and Zack Brown (incorrect round). Fully admitting I know little about any of these guys, especially HS players, beyond the first round other than where BA's top 200 has them.

 

1st (#9) - DL Hall, LHP, HS; Sam Carlson, RHP, HS; David Peterson, LHP, Oregon

I gave serious thought to Hiura here, but his injuries scare me. Too much risk for #9.

 

1 comp (#34) - Brendon Little, LHP, JC; Hans Crouse, RHP, HS; Mark Vientos, SS/3B, HS

 

2nd (#46) - Trevor Stephan, RHP, Arkansas; MJ Melendez, C, HS; Daniel Tillo, LHP, JC

 

3rd (#84) - Kevin Merrell, SS/2B, South Florida; Greg Jones, SS, HS; Adam Hall, SS, HS

 

4th (#114) - Daulton Varsho, C, UW-Milwaukee; David Banuelos, C, Long Beach St.; Terry Fuller, 1B, HS

 

5th (#144) - Oliver Jaskie, LHP, Michigan; Seth Lonsway, LHP, HS; Garrett Cave, RHP, Tampa

 

6th (#174) - (senior signs) Ben Breazeale, C, Wake Forest; Phoenix Sanders, RHP, South Florida; Robbie Coman, C, Virginia

[reillymcshane]

Community Mock Draft starts today!

 

viewtopic.php?f=69&t=35194

 

Come make the first pick in this year's amateur draft (if you are so inclined). Twins are picking today.

[JosephC]

1st (#9) - DL Hall, LHP, HS; Sam Carlson, RHP, HS; David Peterson, LHP, Oregon

I gave serious thought to Hiura here, but his injuries scare me. Too much risk for #9.

 

 

My best guessing comes up with the same two names. I think the Brewers love Hall but in the end will go with Peterson. Stearns is one of those young Ivy League guys and they seem to be somewhat statistics driven and going with the college player just tends to be a much safer, more projectable type pick because there is additional and more reliable data on those players. While Stearns has the ultimate responsibility for these picks, Montgomery has the most input and if there is any type of discussion regarding what player to pick then chances lean towards it being a college player.

 

Obviously I don't have a complete Fangraphs statistical layout but it's interesting looking at Peterson's raw pitching statistics from this last season and how they stack up against the top two college pitchers in this draft.

 

Wright = 2.91 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 6.4 innings/start, 2.7 walks/9 innings, 10.4 strikeouts/9 innings, 1 HR/44.8 innings pitched

McKay = 2.37 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 6.5 innings/start, 3.1 walks/9 innings, 12.3 strikeouts/9 innings, 1 HR/18.2 innings pitched

Peterson = 2.51 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 6.7 innings/start, 1.3 walks/9 innings, 12.6 strikeouts/9 innings, 1 HR/50.2 innings pitched

 

I realize that all conferences aren't equal and the level of competition differs, but Peterson wins in all three of the "known outcome" categories and that has to hold some significance. And Peterson isn't a little, crafty left hander who is winning with pinpoint control and little else. He's a big man who isn't a fire-baller but has more than adequate velocity combined with two other already MLB-average pitches and his change-up might have the most potential of all the secondary pitches possessed by him or Wright or McKay (even though the profile at MLB.com doesn't seem to agree with that). Two months ago Peterson seemed to be talked about as a possibility as being picked around #20 but only as a below-slot candidate. Now he looks like he has a great chance to be picked in the top 12. It's not hard to see why his stock has gone up so dramatically.

[Austin Tatious]

Tod Johnson is an analytics guy who now oversees amateur scouting operations and preparations for the first-year player draft for Milwaukee. You'd have to believe he'd like Petersen's peripherals. Now whether his raw potential matches DL Hall or Carlson is a different question. Petersen looks like he may have David Wells upside. I think I might still take Hall or even Carlson over Petersen although Petersen may also be a good pick.

[3and2Fastball]

I think the Brewers will take Jordan Adell. The potential for Adell to be a bust is there, but the athleticism with that kid is just off the charts. He could certainly be at least a bullpen type closer if he doesn't make it as an Outfielder. He threw 96-97 a year ago. 6.19 Speed, 99 mph exit velocity off a tee, 6-3 200. Can't just find guys like that all the time

[And That]

Scouting reports, part 4:

 

• *Royce Lewis
  *Seth Romero
  *Mark Vientos
  *Corbin Martin
  *Brady McConnell
  *Jeter Downs
  *Chris Seise
  *Jake Thompson
  *Luis Gonzalez
  *Adam Hall

[Madhawk23]

Colby - with all of this speculation (true or not true?) in these mock drafts that have the Brewers either picking Adell or Austin Beck - I'm curious which of these two you'd prefer to see them take? Obviously, we have no idea if this is really the direction that Stearns and Montgomery are leaning, but there sure is a lot of speculation that they'll go with one of these high floor/low ceiling prep OF prospects. Just curious which player you'd prefer out of those two, and what you've seen from both?

[And That]

I was only vaguely aware of Luis Gonzalez' walk prowess before doing the report - did not realize he has walked 58 times in about 219 ABs/280 PAs. That's nearly a 125 walk/600 PA pace.

 

Gonzalez is one of only two D1 players who have at least 41 walks, who have more walks than games played. (D.J. Artis, a sophomore at Liberty is the other - he's also the D1 leader in walks, with 62.)

[Eye Black]

Keith Law's Mock Draft 2.0 includes this selection and corresponding note...

 

9. Milwaukee Brewers

 

Jordon Adell, OF

 

Ballard High School, Louisville, Kentucky

 

The Brewers might also get their pick of a group of players they like, including Adell, Jeren Kendall, J.B. Bukauskas and Smith.

Also, posted in the Names Before the Final Weeks of the Draft thread is a reported link between the Brewers and HS outfielder Austin Beck.

[Austin Tatious]

If available, I'd prefer Pavin Smith over Adell and Beck. The Brewers may not agree because they'd like a more toolsy guy than Pavin Smith. Personally, I think Smith is one of the surest players in the draft and could be a very solid bat, perhaps in the two or three hole in the order. My main interest in Smith is his unbelievable mastery of the strike zone, and his consistency. He's not having a one-off season.

 

Moreover, the organization as a whole has too many guys who strike out at high rates. It'd be nice to get a guy like Smith who doesn't strike out, yet still hits and hits.

 

Beck and Adell may have tools but who knows if they make consistent contact. Who knows, you may get a Mike Trout. But, right now, for where we are as an organization, if you're going to reach for tools like that, I'd rather it be for a pitcher if one is worthy of 9.

 

I haven't seen many projections where Bukauskus gets to 9, but he's similar to Pavin to me philosophically, but as a pitcher. I think you'd be getting a solid 2 starter who could be better than Sonny Gray. I'd love it if we could get Bukauskus. I hadn't even considered that to be a possibility.

[brewmann04]

out of the four names give me the starting Pitcher, but I wonder if their a dark horse under slot guy

who the brewers are keeping quiet about

[MilwaukeeBeers]

Personally don't see J.B. as a starter moving forward, but he could be a very valuable piece to a team.

[Austin Tatious]

You may be right, because realistically he's probably 5'11 and you'd like to see a bit of better control. You'd love a 6'5 guy with downward plane and great movement.

 

But, unfortunately, this draft is a bit light on super projectable starters as you get down to nine.

 

JB may be short for a starter, but he has a tremendous slider, a strong fastball that he can pace as a starter, and a developing changeup. He knows how to pitch. I wouldn't be drafting him at nine to be a reliever. But, if I end up being wrong, at the very least he could hopefully be a closer. That's a good fallback if necessary. I think he ends up as a 2 or 3 starter.

[And That]

Fifth installment of reports:

 

• *Brendan McKay
  *Sam Carlson
  *Jake Burger
  *Tanner Houck
  *Garrett Mitchell
  *Ryan Vilade
  *Luis Campusano
  *Jake Eder
  *Daniel Cabrera
  *Cole Turney

[And That]

With updates from D1, Jeff Ellis, and others:

 

1. Hunter Greene, HS, RHP/SS

2. Kyle Wright, 4yr, RHP

3. Brendan McKay, 4yr, LHP/1B/OF

4. Royce Lewis, HS, OF

5. MacKenzie Gore, HS, LHP

6. JB Bukauskas, 4yr, RHP

7. Pavin Smith, 4yr, 1B

8. Austin Beck, HS, OF

9. Adam Haseley, 4yr, OF

10. Jeren Kendall, 4yr, OF

11. Alex Faedo, 4yr, RHP

12. DL Hall, HS, LHP

13. Nick Pratto, HS, 1B/LHP

14. Jo Adell, HS, OF

15. Shane Baz, HS, RHP

16. Sam Carlson, HS, RHP

17. David Peterson, 4yr, LHP

18. Griffin Canning, 4yr, RHP

19. Jake Burger, 4yr, 3B

20. Keston Hiura, 4yr, 2B/OF

21. Trevor Rogers, HS, LHP

22. Logan Warmoth, 4yr, SS

23. Bubba Thompson, HS, OF

24. Tanner Houck, 4yr, RHP

25. Evan White, 4yr, 1B/OF

26. Blayne Enlow, HS, RHP

27. Matt Sauer, HS, RHP

28. Nick Allen, HS, SS

29. Heliot Ramos, HS, OF

30. Brendon Little, JC, RHP

31. Nate Pearson, JC, RHP

32. Alex Lange, 4yr, RHP

33. Hans Crouse, HS, RHP

34. Drew Waters, HS, OF

35. Mark Vientos, HS, SS/3B

36. Wil Crowe, 4yr, RHP

37. Clarke Schmidt, 4yr, RHP

38. Tanner Burns, HS, RHP

39. Hagen Danner, HS, RHP/C

40. Quentin Holmes, HS, OF

41. Seth Romero, 4yr, LHP

42. Tristan Beck, 4yr (So.), RHP

43. Garrett Mitchell, HS, OF

44. MJ Melendez, HS, C

45. Corbin Martin, 4yr, RHP

46. Brady McConnell, HS, SS

47. Ryan Vilade, HS, 3B

48. Jacob Heatherly, HS, LHP

49. Cal Mitchell, HS, OF/1B

50. Conner Uselton, HS, OF

 

At the Brewers slots for the first five rounds, I currently have:

9. Adam Haseley, 4yr, OF

34. Drew Waters, HS, OF

46. Brady McConnell, HS, SS

84. Seth Corry, HS, LHP

114. Sam Keating, HS, RHP

144. Andrew Bechtold, JC, 3B