The 2017 MLB Draft Thread (#9 Pick + #34 & #46)

[MrTPlush]

MR T Plush I do see your Point about the Hitters but not disagree that we have the proper pitching to get us to the ultimate goal.

 

Don't necessarily disagree that we don't have the pitchers to win a championship, but not sure that picking a pitcher in 2017 is even going to be around to help for that ultimate goal. A HS guy could take over 5 years to be helpful. Honestly we should be taking best player available because some of our top prospects will likely be traded away before they ever put on a Brewers uniform. That's the problem with trying to draft for need. You are making assumptions those good players aren't already in your system and assuming that will actually be a need half a decade from now.

[LouisEly]

Patrick, another guy whose name has popped up a few places recently is Trevor Stephan, the righty out of Arkansas. I've read PG's report on him from early March, but have you heard if he's made progress on his breaking ball since? His numbers, especially the peripherals, are a bit eye-popping, especially considering how big he is.

He may have been off the radar a bit because he was a juco transfer, but put up similar juco numbers (88 Ks, 22 BB, 68.2 IP). Surprised he wasn't picked until the 18th round last year (by Boston), and it looks like he made a smart decision not to sign.

 

6'5", 225, and 15 BB, 103 Ks in 77.2 IP against SEC competition. I'm all for that. Are you hearing about him as a 1st, sandwich, 2nd...?

 

Some 2nd/3rd/4th round guys that I like (while admitting I don't know a lot about them)

 

Kevin Merrell, SS, South Florida - hit .390 with .471 OBP, had as many BB as Ks and stole 18 bases in 22 attempts; fielding needs work, but a good LH bat at SS or 2B

David Banuelos, C, Long Beach St. - .995 fielding % as junior, .997 as a sophomore, threw out 39% of base stealers as a sophomore, hitting has improved each year, hit .311 with 7 HRs as a junior, .383 OBP as a junior, .404 as a soph

Daulton Varsho, C, UW-Milwaukee - son of Gary Varsho, LHH who slugged .643 with a .490 OBP and athletic enough to steal 10 of 13 bases. .989 fielding %, at 5'10" would need to stick at C

[3and2Fastball]

And That & colbyjack - if you have a few minutes can you explain why Brent Rooker is not in the Top 50? Kid has an extremely quick bat and is putting up monster numbers. I will guarantee Rooker will be better than Kendall in pro ball. No doubt in my mind

 

I'm watching Faedo pitch tonight. Looks...interesting. In some ways reminds me of Jungmann with the weird delivery and not tantalizing velocity. But he's got great movement on his secondary pitches. Not totally sold yet but as I said interesting

[And That]

Rooker is pretty close to the top 50. As to why he's not higher, my understanding is it is a combination of age, being limited to 1B/LF (and not being great at either), and offspeed recognition issues.

[Austin Tatious]

One thing I noticed, if you parse what Stearns has said, he doesn't think you draft for need relative to the Big League ballclub. While the casual fan may not realize that, everyone here would agree with that. But adding to organizational depth at some points is important.

 

I'd be a strong proponent of BPA. This year, you may not force a pitcher just to get one. It is wise to get value commensurate with the ninth pick. If a pitcher isn't worthy of 9, then you don't force it.

[3and2Fastball]

I'll be rooting for Rooker to be taken at 9 by the Brewers. I think he is this drafts version of Schwarber but his hit tool might be better than Schwarber

[JDBrewCrew]

http://herosports.com/mlb-draft/brewers-will-look-for-the-best-player-on-the-board-corey-ray-bukauskas-beck-pavin-c6c6

[MilwaukeeBeers]

So there is "smoke" around Sam Carlson in some recent mocks as a suggested name. Can't say I know much about him outside of he's from the midwest and a has halfway decent change up. That's enough to get me root for him haha.

[Oxy]

I'll be rooting for Rooker to be taken at 9 by the Brewers. I think he is this drafts version of Schwarber but his hit tool might be better than Schwarber

 

Wouldn't it be better to root for them to take him at #46?

[And That]

So there is "smoke" around Sam Carlson in some recent mocks as a suggested name. Can't say I know much about him outside of he's from the midwest and a halfway decent change up. That's enough to get me root for him haha.

 

My thoughts on Carlson earlier today.

 

A really great draft (from my perspective anyway) at this point might be something like:

 

9. Carlson

34. Vientos

46. Heatherly

 

Yes, three HSers so that may be unlikely, but I would be thrilled.

[MilwaukeeBeers]

So there is "smoke" around Sam Carlson in some recent mocks as a suggested name. Can't say I know much about him outside of he's from the midwest and a halfway decent change up. That's enough to get me root for him haha.

 

My thoughts on Carlson earlier today.

 

A really great draft (from my perspective anyway) at this point might be something like:

 

9. Carlson

34. Vientos

46. Heatherly

 

Yes, three HSers so that may be unlikely, but I would be thrilled.

I'd be quite pleased as well, but gotta think that eats up the lot of the bonus pool. I really like your top H.S. arms you suggested. Anyone of those arms (I'm warming up to D.L.) including Baz and I'd be more than happy. Hell I'd be downright giddy if Gore is there.

[3and2Fastball]

I'll be rooting for Rooker to be taken at 9 by the Brewers. I think he is this drafts version of Schwarber but his hit tool might be better than Schwarber

 

Wouldn't it be better to root for them to take him at #46?

 

Or #34. I just don't see him lasting till 34

[Austin Tatious]

Good articles on Carlson. Fastball, slider as an out pitch, and changeup.

 

http://twinsdaily.com/blog/531/entry-8879-sam-carlson-2017-mlb-draft/

 

http://www.brewcrewball.com/2017/5/23/15649978/milwaukee-brewers-2017-mlb-draft-preview-high-school-pitchers

[And That]

Jim Callis has an updated MLB Pipeline mock. Don't want to rehash my thoughts on Adell, but there are at least a dozen guys who were still on the board in that mock that I'd take before him at 9.

 

Also, if someone has a mock draft they've seen that I've missed, please feel free to post it or message me and I can grab it.

 

I've been told a top 100 type of list from D1 Baseball will be posted on their site in the next week or so. Will combine their HS/Juco/College lists, which have so far been done separately.

[And That]

Baseball America has refreshed their top 200 list, and it will be expanding to 500 pretty soon. They've included scouting reports (behind a pay wall) for 100+ prospects so far.

 

Speaking of top 500 lists, Perfect Game has been posting their top 500 in 100 part sections this week, and 100-1 comes out later today.

[LouisEly]

Jim Callis has an updated MLB Pipeline mock. Don't want to rehash my thoughts on Adell, but there are at least a dozen guys who were still on the board in that mock that I'd take before him at 9.

But that's what they do - the lazy draft analysts look at what a team has done before (the Brewers took toolsy athletic OFs the last two drafts) and say, that's their MO so that's what they'll do again.

 

Unless the Brewers are looking at Adell as a pitcher (possible), I highly doubt they go with another OF with a questionable hit tool.

 

Teams do not look at the big league club and use that to influence their draft. But there is so little difference between players (what really is the delta between so-called "BPA" and the next guy?) that I'd be surprised if organizations don't look at the lower levels of the organization and identify where they have needs and surplus, and use that to move guys up/down a few spots. That's why I mocked (and was correct on) Erceg in the 2nd round last year - the Brewers had a big deficit at 3B in the lower levels of the org. We saw it in 2012 - the Brewers had nothing for bats in the lower level of the org, so they went bat-heavy (Coulter, Roache, Haniger, Taylor) at the top.

 

Stearns has said he does believe in LH/RH balance in the lineup, so I know they do favor LH bats. Clark, Ray, Erceg - not coincidental they all bat LH.

[reillymcshane]

I want to remind people that we are doing another Community Mock Draft - just like last season.

 

viewtopic.php?f=69&t=35194

 

The Twins are on the clock - pick must be in by Tuesday, May 30. So when you are ready, head on over and get your pick in.

 

Thanks.

[paul253]

There are a lot of names I'm excited about but Adell and Kendall aren't those names.

[And That]

(what really is the delta between so-called "BPA" and the next guy?)

I think this is a very good point. At 5 overall or 9 overall, maybe through the end of the first round, there had better be some pretty high conviction in the draft room with the team's first selection. But really after the first pick in the draft, the conviction level drops with each pick and at some point teams can't really say, "yah, that guy is definitely the best guy left." It gets a lot more nuanced after a certain point, and obviously bonus demands and bonus pool strategy plays into picks as well. BPA at 9, sure. BPA in the fourth round, I don't think that concept applies so much.

[And That]

One more update before the weekend...

 

1. Hunter Greene, HS, RHP/SS

2. Kyle Wright, 4yr, RHP

3. Brendan McKay, 4yr, LHP/1B/OF

4. Royce Lewis, HS, OF

5. JB Bukauskas, 4yr, RHP

6. MacKenzie Gore, HS, LHP

7. Austin Beck, HS, OF

8. Jeren Kendall, 4yr, OF

9. Alex Faedo, 4yr, RHP

10. DL Hall, HS, LHP

11. Nick Pratto, HS, 1B/LHP

12. Pavin Smith, 4yr, 1B

13. Jo Adell, HS, OF

14. Sam Carlson, HS, RHP

15. Adam Haseley, 4yr, OF

16. Griffin Canning, 4yr, RHP

17. Keston Hiura, 4yr, 2B/OF

18. Jake Burger, 4yr, 3B

19. Shane Baz, HS, RHP

20. David Peterson, 4yr, LHP

21. Tanner Houck, 4yr, RHP

22. Bubba Thompson, HS, OF

23. Seth Romero, 4yr, LHP

24. Heliot Ramos, HS, OF

25. Trevor Rogers, HS, LHP

26. Logan Warmoth, 4yr, SS

27. Nick Allen, HS, SS

28. Evan White, 4yr, 1B/OF

29. Hans Crouse, HS, RHP

30. Brendon Little, JC, RHP

31. Alex Lange, 4yr, RHP

32. Matt Sauer, HS, RHP

33. Blayne Enlow, HS, RHP

34. Mark Vientos, HS, SS/3B

35. Drew Waters, HS, OF

36. Nate Pearson, JC, RHP

37. Wil Crowe, 4yr, RHP

38. Clarke Schmidt, 4yr, RHP

39. Tanner Burns, HS, RHP

40. Garrett Mitchell, HS, OF

41. Tristan Beck, 4yr (So.), RHP

42. Jacob Heatherly, HS, LHP

43. Hagen Danner, HS, RHP/C

44. Tristen Lutz, HS, OF

45. Quentin Holmes, HS, OF

46. MJ Melendez, HS, C

47. Ryan Vilade, HS, 3B

48. Cal Mitchell, HS, OF/1B

49. Alex Scherff, HS, RHP

50. Steven Jennings, HS, RHP

 

At the Brewers slots for the first five rounds, I currently have:

9. Alex Faedo, 4yr, RHP

34. Mark Vientos, HS, SS/3B

46. MJ Melendez, HS, C

84. Matt Tabor, HS, RHP

114. Daulton Varsho, 4yr, C

144. Tony Dibrell, 4yr, RHP

[nate82]

I really like DL Hall at the 9th spot.

[Austin Tatious]

If you take away the consensus top 6 picks (Hunter Greene, Kyle Wright, Brendan McKay, Royce Lewis, JB Bukauskas, and MacKenzie Gore), who would be the top half a dozen guys (in order), as of today, who you would take for Milwaukee at 9 (not all of them would be available, but after the big six, there is a lot of shuffling). I am not really done researching, but if any of the big 6 get to 9, I'd run the card up. After that, here would be my top 6:

1 DL Hall, HS, LHP

2. David Peterson, 4yr, LHP

3. Pavin Smith, 4yr, 1B

4. Sam Carlson, HS, RHP

5. Shane Baz HS, rhp

6. Nick Pratto, HS, 1B/LHP

(7. Keston Hiura, 4yr, 2B/OF)

 

I passed on Beck and especially Abell. I like Beck as a prospect, though. Pratto seems more and more intriguing. I might bring him up as we get closer.

[JDBrewCrew]

Baseball America has the Brewers taking Adell then vientos in their most recent mock

[colbyjack]

Sorry, it's been a while, so I'm catching up on a few comments...

 

I'm not sure if DL Hall has really fallen this spring as much as other players have jumped ahead of him. From the reports I've seen, his stuff is just as good, with the usual minors concerns about his future command. As for Hall vs. David Peterson it's kind of an interesting question because the two really couldn't be different LHPs. Hall is a little shorter, nearly a perfect comp physically and stuff-wise at the same age as Scott Kazmir. While Peterson is very tall and pretty strong, with a good, not great 4-pitch mix. Peterson of course is a candidate to move fast, but his total package is going to have to elevate his profile some, although he does throw 90-94 regularly in games.

 

Drew Waters is an interesting athlete that I would probably be mildly surprised if he were available at the Brewers 2nd pick at #34. There was some buzz about a month ago about him getting a lot of interest from teams in the 20-30 range, but a lot can happen in a month.

 

We had one of our PG scouts see Trevor Stephan yesterday. Arkansas has 2 really good starters, including Blaine Knight, that could both be drafted in the top 2 rounds. Knight is more about pure projection, a draft-eligible sophomore with a fastball that touches 96 (but is fairly straight) and a potential wipeout slider. Stephan has a lot more movement, more of a true sinker/slider type and a still-projectable frame. I watched a couple of innings of Stephan's start yesterday and was pretty impressed with both his fastball and slider, of which he commanded both well and complemented the two pitches off of one another very well.

 

About a month ago there was a very strong rumor that the Braves were going to take Beck with their 2nd pick, possibly taking a player with their first pick that may not cost the full bonus allotment to be able to make that happen. I've thrown it out there before, but I'd love to see the Brewers use a similar tactic. Beck has top 10 overall upside as a draft pick, maybe even higher, but it seems as though he wants to go pro as a draft-eligible sophomore. I don't think the fact that the Brewers took him out of high school will have anything to do with where he goes, even if it is the Brewers that take him.

 

MJ Melendez is a name that Toby and I have at least discussed for one of the team's early picks. Very good defensive catcher with a promising offensive profile as a LHH. Brady McConnell is a tough prospect to figure out in that his tools do grade very high but he has struggled to put the hit tool and overall approach together, especially at some of the bigger, national profile events. Mike Rivera is one of the best defensive catchers in the nation that is draft eligible and just returned from injury the other day for Florida. He's a take-charge backstop, somewhat of a poor man's Yadier Molina. I still wouldn't touch JJ Schwarz in the top 5 rounds right now, his confidence looks pretty broken, both at the plate and behind it. He's a candidate to drop in the draft, and therefore return for next year.

 

As for the BPA argument, it's really a subjective topic. You can pretty much craft the topic around however you prefer to see the Brewers draft, and the Brewers can also craft the topic to defend whoever they pick. There are so many players, especially this year, that have equal value to one another that you could pick for need if that is the angle you take. I personally don't see the same amount of pitching depth, but that comes from the person who believes the Brewers also need to add one legit bat to the system.

 

Speaking of, I know I have professed my interest in guys like Hiura and Pavin Smith in the past, but two other pure hitters I really like are Evan White of Kentucky and Gavin Sheets of Wake Forest. White is a versatile player, somewhat similar to Darin Erstad in that he can play 1B at a very high level defensively but also can play CF. Sheets is a big fella, 6-foot-5 or so, a LHH whose dad also played in the big leagues. Sheets is a great approach and pretty special power. He hasn't been mentioned much but I could see him even sneaking into the first round (and am actually a little surprised he hasn't been discussed more often to do so).

 

LouisEly, of the guys you mentioned Kevin Merrell has the chance to be special, possibly even as a super-sub given his versatility and overall athleticism. I'm not so sure he's an everyday SS long-term, but he can do a little big of everything at a pretty high level. A special player for sure.

 

As for Brent Rooker, I touched upon him earlier in this thread but he's somewhat of a 1-dimensional player. He's a dead-red fastball pull hitter. He has shown some nice adjustments over the course of the season laying off soft stuff down and away, but the times I have seen him face pitchers with advanced secondary stuff he seems to struggle. If you challenge him high and inside he's going to make you pay. In that regard, he reminds me a little of Jose Bautista, who obviously still has a lot of value, but Rooker will need to prove he can continue to hone his approach at the next level, which is a big if, and it also didn't help him that he played first base all of this season.

[And That]

Pratto makes me nervous as the league-wide track record for high school first basemen hasn't been great, maybe only better than high school catchers on the position player side.

 

Of course, that's not to say Pratto won't succeed, just that I would not reach to get him and 9 is just too high, IMO.