The 2017 MLB Draft Thread (#9 Pick + #34 & #46)

[brewmann04]

You do take the BPA but if pitching is close to a hitter you go with the arm.I however believe that DS if adding another bat will down the road trade that excess surpus for Pitching when we are ready to make a run

[MilwaukeeBeers]

New mock from Taylor Blake Ward. Here's the Brewers bit.

 

Milwaukee Brewers - D.L. Hall, LHP, Valdosta HS (GA)

 

The Brewers are ready to play with the chips they have. Those chips include three top 50 picks, and sources say they're making deals left and right to go ever-so-slighly underslot with their first pick.

Mock 1.0: Pavin Smith

Mock 2.0: Jordon Adell

 

Interesting not a huge fan of the pick, but the fact that we're supposedly cutting deals is news to me.

http://www.scout.com/mlb/scouting/story/1779690-ward-mock-draft-3-0

[MilwaukeeBeers]

 

BPA is totally correct as far as the draft goes, but that won't mean I might wince a little if we get Jeren Kendall at #9 and we don't make any trades this summer. ThassalottaOFers.

 

Plus, the MLB club picked up Broxton, Perez, Shaw, Thames, and Bandy for next to nothing, and they are all young (minus Thames) and are all producing like all-stars. It sure seems like pitching is once again at a premium league wide right now. Four years ago that wasn't the case, so maybe 4 years from now the cycle might switch back again. It's hard to say.

Yeah Adell and Kendall would be kind of disappointing. We already have players in our system that fit the mold of player they are. The only OFs I take with confidence are Beck and Smith (99% certain he wont' be at 9). I'm absolutely not against drafting a pitcher. I'm just saying we don't NEED too. I'd be shooting for the moon this draft tbh just sick of the "safe" picks.

[Oxy]

New mock from Taylor Blake Ward. Here's the Brewers bit.

 

Milwaukee Brewers - D.L. Hall, LHP, Valdosta HS (GA)

 

The Brewers are ready to play with the chips they have. Those chips include three top 50 picks, and sources say they're making deals left and right to go ever-so-slighly underslot with their first pick.

Mock 1.0: Pavin Smith

Mock 2.0: Jordon Adell

 

Interesting not a huge fan of the pick, but the fact that we're supposedly cutting deals is news to me.

http://www.scout.com/mlb/scouting/story/1779690-ward-mock-draft-3-0

 

This is where I get confused. A guy like Tristan Beck may be available at 34, but he may/will demand a slot value of maybe the #10 pick in order to sign him? Since he can go back to Stanford next year? So we'll draft a guy who will sign for underslot at #9 who likely won't be available at #34, but enable us to keep more bonus pools signing money?

 

 

EDIT: I think I got most of the answers I was looking for in that other thread i bumped.

 

EXCEPT: Why is Tristan Beck eligible for the draft after his Soph year? I thought the rule was 3 yrs in school? Also, why aren't there more juniors who are drafted? It seems like most of the college guys are "4yr senior sign" guys. TIA.

[DHonks]

New mock from Taylor Blake Ward. Here's the Brewers bit.

 

Milwaukee Brewers - D.L. Hall, LHP, Valdosta HS (GA)

 

The Brewers are ready to play with the chips they have. Those chips include three top 50 picks, and sources say they're making deals left and right to go ever-so-slighly underslot with their first pick.

Mock 1.0: Pavin Smith

Mock 2.0: Jordon Adell

 

Interesting not a huge fan of the pick, but the fact that we're supposedly cutting deals is news to me.

http://www.scout.com/mlb/scouting/story/1779690-ward-mock-draft-3-0

 

 

EXCEPT: Why is Tristan Beck eligible for the draft after his Soph year? I thought the rule was 3 yrs in school? Also, why aren't there more juniors who are drafted? It seems like most of the college guys are "4yr senior sign" guys. TIA.

 

Is Beck 21? college players become draft eligible if 21 by the draft. Sometimes scouts don't adequately scout these guys

[Austin Tatious]

If Ward knows something about Hall, that's not bad. Here's a pretty good scouting report if anyone is interested. Upside as a number 2 starter, southpaw with a good heater and impressive curveball. Not filled out but he's 18.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/www.crawfishboxes.com/platform/amp/2017/5/22/15666138/2017-mlb-draft-profile-d-l-hall-lhp-valdosta-hs-ga-florida-state-ncaa-astros-marlins

[JosephC]

I got the impression from one of Haudricourt's articles that the Brewers had Hall very high on their list. Kind of surprised to hear he might be a below-slot candidate. Mayo had him at #19 in his latest draft, but most of the time he seems to be projecting in the #12 to #14 area. The slot value at #9 is 4.57 million, whereas the slot value at #12 is 4.032 million, so there is a decent chance that Hall would be happy with anything over 4 million and that would give Milwaukee an extra 0.538 million to play with later in the draft. If the Brewers do have a serious interest in Tristan Beck, this would allow them to pick him at #34 but pay him a value that lies between the #25 and #26 pick in the draft.

[And That]

Hall has been slowly slipping since February, and much like Enlow I believe the reason for slipping is not that he's regarded any less, but others have been squeaking by him. If you would have told me 3 months ago that the Brewers could get Hall underslot at #9, I would have been ecstatic, and I still would be thrilled.

[JDBrewCrew]

If that is the case AndThat, who would you want them to target at #34 with the savings?

[And That]

If Seth Romero is still there, you'd have to think about him. Maybe a high schooler like Hans Crouse, Bubba Thompson, Trevor Rogers, or Mark Vientos. Or a JC guy like Brendon Little or Nate Pearson. Not sure how far you'd have to go over slot with any of those guys, though. Tough to tell at this point who will still be there at 34. It's conceivable Shane Baz and/or Jo Adell could still be there. I wouldn't take Adell at 9, but at 34 that's a pretty easy pick.

[paul253]

Seriously our strength right now in the minors is pitching. That could change quickly, but pitching is hardly a need. I will say it till I'm blue in the face BPA!

 

You can never have enough pitching. Plus we've had so many top prospects flame out that until they actually have success I'm not counting on any of our minor leaguers. Hader and Lopez both struggled in AAA (granted is it Colorado Springs) and Ortiz has been good but not great in AA this year. Other than Woodruff I'm not overly confident in any of our pitching prospects being able to come up here and become a true 1 or 2.

 

Another poster summed up my stance perfectly. Go BPA but if pitching is close you take the arm, particularly if the other player is an outfielder where we currently have 4 guys in AAA who have shown they are deserving of a shot should someone go down for an extended period of time.

[And That]

Eric Longenhagen has his FanGraphs draft board up. Rankings through 50 so far.

 

Most notably, he has David Peterson at #8 overall, which is 8 spots higher than anyone else has him (that I've seen). Could be that Patrick's idea of the Brewers drafting Peterson comes to fruition after all. Actually, that brings up an interesting question given the DL Hall news earlier...

 

Patrick, if the Brewers had pre-draft deals in place with both Hall and Peterson at #9, and they were both available, which one of those two do you think they should pick?

[Austin Tatious]

David Peterson has flipped a switch this year. His walk rate is way, way down to an absurd level. He's 6'6 240 and athletic. He's got a good fastball and slider combo. I am not sure about a third pitch but he looks interesting. I linked a good article on his progress at the bottom.

 

With the comp A and second rounder, there are a number of interesting prospects. If Tristan Beck gets down there, he'd be super interesting as he's been discussed at the start of this thread in the top ten. That could be good value. Mark Vientos is another who looks like he's got upside at third. I couldn't be happier about 18 year old Mario Feliciano at class A ball, but MJ Melendez sounds like another good catching prospect and we know that's always a tough thing to find.

 

There will be some guys who slip down to comp A and second round that will surprise us. It happens every year. I'd love to get some high schoolers with upside the way we did with Gatewood and Harrison, or with Feliciano. I hope there's a pitching version of that.

 

I think we have very good depth in our system other than pitcher but replenishing the next wave behind them with high upside teens would be great so we avoid logjams and keep continuity in our system.

 

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/5/3/15529394/2017-mlb-draft-profile-david-peterson-lhp-oregon

[MrTPlush]

We have depth at pitcher! Why do people insist we don't? We have multiple Top 100 prospect pitchers and many many more good ones following suit. Do any project as aces? No, but I could argue we don't have the hitter equivalent in the minors right now either.

[JosephC]

The more I think about Tristan Beck, the more it seems like the best thing for him would be to head back to Stanford. He didn't pitch this season which really should push him far down the board. But if he's fully healthy and pitches well next year he's a very, very strong bet to be a top 20 pick. It would be hard to walk away from 1.5 million dollars, but since he already had a chance to make some money once and walked away he'll probably be willing to do it again unless he's going to get a pretty large bonus. Sure would be interesting to find out what his demands will be, he obviously has some leverage because going back to Stanford for one-year isn't a bad situation. I'd guess if the Brewers want to pick him at #46, they'd have to pay him way over the slot-value and do you really want to do that with a player that missed all of last season?

[Austin Tatious]

We have depth at pitcher! Why do people insist we don't? We have multiple Top 100 prospect pitchers and many many more good ones following suit. Do any project as aces? No, but I could argue we don't have the hitter equivalent in the minors right now either.

 

I agree with you that we have some bodies . It's semantics in a sense because we all know the same guys. We've got a guy like Hader who needs command. I like Kirby if he gets healthy. Woody looks legit. Supak is promising. Williams is a good reliever.

 

But really we have a bunch of guys who are just that, just guys. Is anyone really hanging their hat on the likes of Cody Ponce or Kodi? It's not enough.

[And That]

I'd guess if the Brewers want to pick him at #46, they'd have to pay him way over the slot-value and do you really want to do that with a player that missed all of last season?

Then again, if the Brewers are bullish on him, they won't have a shot at him next year because if he performs and given how the Brewers are playing, he might well be gone before they pick in the first round in '18. It might be a worthwhile risk, given where he could be a year from now.

[And That]

I've added a few new sources, so here are the updated aggregate rankings, expanded to 50:

 

1. Hunter Greene, HS, RHP/SS

2. Brendan McKay, 4yr, LHP/1B/OF

3. Kyle Wright, 4yr, RHP

4. Royce Lewis, HS, OF

5. JB Bukauskas, 4yr, RHP

6. Jeren Kendall, 4yr, OF

7. MacKenzie Gore, HS, LHP

8. Austin Beck, HS, OF

9. Alex Faedo, 4yr, RHP

10. DL Hall, HS, LHP

11. Nick Pratto, HS, 1B/LHP

12. Pavin Smith, 4yr, 1B

13. Jo Adell, HS, OF

14. Seth Romero, 4yr, LHP

15. Griffin Canning, 4yr, RHP

16. Adam Haseley, 4yr, OF

17. Sam Carlson, HS, RHP

18. Keston Hiura, 4yr, 2B/OF

19. Jake Burger, 4yr, 3B

20. David Peterson, 4yr, LHP

21. Shane Baz, HS, RHP

22. Tanner Houck, 4yr, RHP

23. Hans Crouse, HS, RHP

24. Trevor Rogers, HS, LHP

25. Logan Warmoth, 4yr, SS

26. Heliot Ramos, HS, OF

27. Bubba Thompson, HS, OF

28. Brendon Little, JC, RHP

29. Nick Allen, HS, SS

30. Alex Lange, 4yr, RHP

31. Matt Sauer, HS, RHP

32. Evan White, 4yr, 1B/OF

33. Wil Crowe, 4yr, RHP

34. Blayne Enlow, HS, RHP

35. Mark Vientos, HS, SS/3B

36. Clarke Schmidt, 4yr, RHP

37. Nate Pearson, JC, RHP

38. Drew Waters, HS, OF

39. Garrett Mitchell, HS, OF

40. Quentin Holmes, HS, OF

41. Tristan Beck, 4yr (So.), RHP

42. Jacob Heatherly, HS, LHP

43. Tanner Burns, HS, RHP

44. MJ Melendez, HS, C

45. Alex Scherff, HS, RHP

46. Conner Uselton, HS, OF

47. Cal Mitchell, HS, OF/1B

48. Ryan Vilade, HS, 3B

49. Brady McConnell, HS, SS

50. Steven Jennings, HS, RHP

 

(Note the long run of HSers there.)

 

At the Brewers slots for the first five rounds, I currently have:

9. Alex Faedo, 4yr, RHP

34. Blayne Enlow, HS, RHP

46. Conner Uselton, HS, OF

84. Michael Gigliotti, 4yr, OF

114. Mike Rivera, 4yr, C

144. Blake Hunt, HS, C

[JosephC]

I see what you're saying. Roll the dice and strike out on the 46th pick...well it is only the 46th pick and they've already picked two players ahead of that which gives them a bit more room to gamble.

 

I'll make the crazy, completely unfounded guess that Beck will be picked between #34 and #46 and will be looking for a minimum of 2 million to sign (which is between the slot values for picks #33 and #34).

 

Here is an interview with Beck from 2015 right after he withdrew from draft consideration.

http://www.pe.com/2015/06/09/baseball-beck-discusses-withdrawal-from-mlb-draft-consideration/

 

There is a note that the Baseball America mock had him at #28. Obviously no real information if interested teams were picking higher or lower than #28. The slot value for the #28 pick that year was $1,974,700. Very likely a top 75 pick and slot value for the #75 pick that year was $814,300. So he's obviously been willing to walk away from a pretty substantial payday in the past.

[And That]

Patrick, another guy whose name has popped up a few places recently is Trevor Stephan, the righty out of Arkansas. I've read PG's report on him from early March, but have you heard if he's made progress on his breaking ball since? His numbers, especially the peripherals, are a bit eye-popping, especially considering how big he is.

[Never Outhustled]

I'd guess if the Brewers want to pick him at #46, they'd have to pay him way over the slot-value and do you really want to do that with a player that missed all of last season?

Then again, if the Brewers are bullish on him, they won't have a shot at him next year because if he performs and given how the Brewers are playing, he might well be gone before they pick in the first round in '18. It might be a worthwhile risk, given where he could be a year from now.

 

Isn't there some pretty serious durability concerns for a player who had a stress fracture in his back?

[brewmann04]

MR T Plush I do see your Point about the Hitters but not disagree that we have the proper pitching to get us to the ultimate goal.

[And That]

Isn't there some pretty serious durability concerns for a player who had a stress fracture in his back?

I don't know the answer to that. I guess you'd have to search out other pitchers who had that same kind of injury and see how they progressed. If the Brewers' medical staff were dubious about his long term prospects, I'd hope the the Brewers scouting department would a)ask the question to the doctors in the first place, and b)would heed their advice and pass.

[Austin Tatious]

Brady McConell is another interesting guy in the second round as a SS/3b. That aggregate value looks low to me. Quick twitch, 6'3 kid. I'd have him on my short list in that range. With our penchant for acquiring up-the-middle talent, he may be in the mix. Even if he moves off short, he's got upside that may be attractive to us.

 

Between 9, 34 and 46, I'd love to see a couple of pitchers and an upside teen like McConnell or Vientos as I mentioned before.

 

Count me in on the Tristan Beck bandwagon if his medical isn't considered long term. Look at how Walker Buehler has overcome his injury. It's an opportunity to get a high level talent with reasonable risk profile.

 

The Mike Rivera projection at 114 would be nice as he would be an exciting pickup. Nice catcher at Florida who would be a nice addition to our crop of catchers.

 

I would still like JJ Schwarz further down the line, 4th round or whatever.

 

Say you come out of here with Hall, Beck, and McConell. I'd like a mix of profiles like that. I think you could make the money work. High school southpaw with talent, high upside teen infielder, Stanford starter who could be a number 3 MLB starter if he gets healthy. That would fit my 10,000 feet approach. Would love a combo like that. That would be a heck of an infusion to our system, along with the top 16 year old international outfielder we are linked to. I know there would be many other additions but I like this type of approach.

[And That]

I believe the reason McConnell has fallen is due to questions both about his ability to unlock his offensive upside, and questions about his ability to stick at short. His continuum of development could run anywhere from solid offensive/defensive shortstop to decent defensive/light hitting primarily non-SS utility player. That double uncertainty in having to develop his impressive physical tools both at the plate and on the dirt is going to scare some teams off.