The 2017 MLB Draft Thread (#9 Pick + #34 & #46)

[Boomer5]

The 2014 draft is real proof this team just wasnt very good at drafting

It is way way way way way way too early to make any concrete judgment on the 2014 draft.

 

Maybe, but did you look at that list I linked? Kodi was not the best use of the 12th pick.

[And That]

Drafting/signing Medeiros modestly underslot allowed them to draft Gatewood and Harrison overslot with the next two picks. Based on talent alone, Medeiros was probably drafted about 20 spots too high, but Gatewood and Harrison both slipped farther than they should have.

 

In retrospect, Newcomb or Holmes would have been better takes at 12 for about the same amount (I was hoping for Holmes regardless), but Medeiros was not a huge reach.

[brewcrewdue80]

I look forward to when Medeiros proves the haters wrong. Watch him turn in to a Jake Arrieta, all he needs is time.

[CheezWizHed]

In retrospect, Newcomb or Holmes would have been better takes at 12 for about the same amount (I was hoping for Holmes regardless), but Medeiros was not a huge reach.

 

Not to mention that every team has examples of this.

 

When we got Jack Z, it was a major upgrade from Dean Taylor. Then Bruce Seid was about equal (maybe a bit better). Ray Montgomery interests me, but its only been two drafts so its hard to rate. But certainly its been an upward path from were we used to be.

[Austin Tatious]

Sure, anything can happen with Medeiros. The ratio of finding an Arrieta is less than 1/1000 for pitchers drafted that low. It's flawed to look at a total outlier and then act like it's probable.

 

But if you want to have a realistic assessment of your system, Medeiros is a kid with limited command who projects to be a loogy if he improves dramatically. Perhaps he can turn into Will Smith, but that's asking a lot. There is no rational reason to project him to be a TOR starter. Could it happen? Sure. That would not be operating in any kind of rational projection. We can all hope for it while functioning in realistic projections. If you sit there and project Medeiros to be a TOR starter, then you will have a disastrous front office banking on hopes and fantastic dreams.

 

You take a terrible team the year prior, win some extra games, and then get relegated to drafting Medeiros. It's playing checkers with the 12th pick when Boston takes Groome with the 12th pick while playing chess.

 

The Brewers take an under slot guy in Medeiros, a guy who can be a bullpen arm, to try to get better players later in Harrison and Gatewood. It's time to abandon this failed approach. If you're high in the draft, take a high talent. You can't hide from Scott Boras. This is a competitive sport. You will have to deal with Boras and his ilk if you want to win.

 

What do Molly, Robin, Fielder, and Braunie have in common? They were top 7 picks. That's how you draft major talents high. That's the chance we have in the next three drafts.

[Boomer5]

I am pretty sure the Brewers couldn't get Trea Turner for Kodi, Gatewood, and Harrison.

 

This is not a hindsight is 20/20 thing, this is a strategy comment. The Brewers cant follow a model where they can draft meh and sign FA's to fill the holes. They need to draft elite talent and you don't do that picking 10th or so unless you have a remarkably good scouting department and FO.

[paul253]

At the time I was ok with the move because we needed depth in our system. Gatewood was at one point considered a top ten pick but was falling pretty quick and Harrison was thought to be a tough sign. Personally I wanted Grant Holmes but Medeiros wasn't a terrible selection. He actually did ok last year but as it seems like as with pretty much all of our top prospects this season he's having a terrible year. Now that our system has more depth we should abandon the under slot signing and go for the highest ceiling. I hated the Ray pick but now that we have him I hope he does well. I'm hoping for top ten picks the next two or three years with high ceiling players with all those picks.

[brewcrewdue80]

Medieros' arm slot has been compared to Chris sale. I've seen his slider. Will Smith dreams his slider moved like kodis. I get it his numbers aren't what you'd like, but give him time. I'm telling you, his stuff will get there.

[And That]

I am pretty sure the Brewers couldn't get Trea Turner for Kodi, Gatewood, and Harrison.

 

This is not a hindsight is 20/20 thing

That's exactly what it is - Turner could have fallen on his face. Many college players taken at 12 have done so.

 

The Brewers chose to go after lottery tickets instead of a high floor guy. I still think it was a good call.

[MrTPlush]

Medeiros/Gatewood/Harrison was a fantastic get. At that draft slot Medeiros wasn't even a bad pick. To get Gatewood/Harrison...stellar.

 

Of course now that we can look in the past none of them have blossomed, but I still like all three a lot.

[Austin Tatious]

Fantastic get is a massive stretch. "Fantastic gets" roar through your system and become all stars. The hope for these guys is as complimentary pieces. If it works out, these are helping pieces. You can't have that coming off a lousy season. At some point, you're just going to have to draft a star high in the draft. A no-brainer pick, where you aren't scared of your own shadow or Scott Boras or saving money to throw more money at a mediocrity a round or two later in the hope you get a back end starter or middle reliever.

[Jenkins5]

This is just laughable to me when the disappointment discussion about any of these 3 kids begin. It is FAR to early to make a ruling on any of them of if they were a mistake to pick & when we did..... Especially Kodi. These kids are all 20 years old and are/have been young for there leagues. Kodi literally just turned 20 and is in A+ (one of the top 3 youngest players I believe in FSL). Yes, we all wish they came out and shattered all expectations and are Top 10 prospects in Milb but that's not realistic. Overall, stuff wise, Kodi is absolutely filthy. He was picked at 12 because arms like his can't be taught. His life in his arm is elite. As I have said since he signed, his issue is he is a "thrower" & not a "pitcher." The hope when Brewers took him at 12 is that their staff could teach him to harness his stuff & become a pitcher. Moreover, Brewers are being very aggressive with him, so they must think highly enough him. This isn't an over aggressive front office /player development team.... Reason why many of us complain about placements & how conservative many of them were. Yet, he was still brought up to BC at 19. In Brewers eyes, doubt they as down on him as many of you are

[MrTPlush]

Fantastic get is a massive stretch. "Fantastic gets" roar through your system and become all stars. The hope for these guys is as complimentary pieces. If it works out, these are helping pieces. You can't have that coming off a lousy season. At some point, you're just going to have to draft a star high in the draft. A no-brainer pick, where you aren't scared of your own shadow or Scott Boras or saving money to throw more money at a mediocrity a round or two later in the hope you get a back end starter or middle reliever.

 

At the time that was a good haul and all three had/have high ceilings. Pretty hard not to like what they did there. If it doesn't work out oh well, but I won't call it a bad choice.

[Austin Tatious]

His stuff is not filthy by definition if he lacks command. If anyone is counting on Kodi to be a TOR starter, you're in Lala land. It could happen as an unexpected surprise, but you're hoping not expecting. Big difference. Cody Ponce, Josh Hader, and Marcos Diplan are where you guys need to be more hopeful. But there's significant questions about the player development aspect.

 

Arnett, Bradley, Heckathorn, Coulter, Roche, Jungmann, Haniger. Ty Taylor.

 

All are spectacular failures. You'd expect to Forrest Gump your way to 3 good picks that high just by sheer luck. You can sit there in denial all day long while the Cards restock without falling off a cliff and the Cubs have an endless supply of elites and the Brewers have none of beyond Arcia. Not to mention the Pirates, who draft top guys well. The Brewers have failed policies and failed logic in drafting and in lower level player development.

 

You can fantasize outside realistuc projections all you want. I keep up with other markets. The Miami folks think they got another Cliff Lee in Braxton Garrett. Boston thinks they outsmarted everyone and got the best player in the draft in Groome. Every team in the league can tell you that pitchers with 6.00 eras and zero idea where the ball is going in the lower Minor's will be their next ace. There is no basis to conclude the Brewers are on any track of serious success based on what we have now under our failed logic and process. If the Brewers don't reverse course and fix it in the next 2-3 drafts, we may stay down. See 1993-2005.

[Austin Tatious]

Fantastic get is a massive stretch. "Fantastic gets" roar through your system and become all stars. The hope for these guys is as complimentary pieces. If it works out, these are helping pieces. You can't have that coming off a lousy season. At some point, you're just going to have to draft a star high in the draft. A no-brainer pick, where you aren't scared of your own shadow or Scott Boras or saving money to throw more money at a mediocrity a round or two later in the hope you get a back end starter or middle reliever.

 

At the time that was a good haul and all three had/have high ceilings. Pretty hard not to like what they did there. If it doesn't work out oh well, but I won't call it a bad choice.

 

I liked the Gatewood and Harrison picks at the time. But my heart sank when we drafted Medieros. It's very disappointing to make picks like that year after year. Montgomery may be new, but I doubt the entire scouting staff is. I wouldn't compromise to get a Medeiros to get a nicer player in the second or third picks. There may be situations where that's warranted, just not now under these circumstances. Our top 30 is fine. That's not the issue. It's the top ten. That can only be resolved by getting top guys.

 

The really good players are good, and rake quickly. They're good. Everyone knows they're good and not flawed to a great extent like these guys.

[Austin Tatious]

I find it curious that some of you think that our drafting policy is hunky dory will be the first ones in the transaction forum in a couple of years pounding the table that we will never get Brady Aiken, Braxton Garrett, Jason Groome etc in a trade. The young pitchers will vault high in the prospect rankings, higher than our guys. So, you certainly realize the value of these high end prospects. Now take the next step and get them in here. We can't keep drafting weak armed left fielders year after year.

 

I do like some prospects with upside like McClanahan, Thomas, Henry. You can hope there's a Corey Hart level guy or two coming out of tgat mix. I liked the Orimolye pick. Lara was a nice get internationally. It's the top of the draft that's the issue.

[And That]

The young pitchers will vault high in the prospect rankings, higher than our guys.

Two points:

 

1) That's unknowable currently.

 

2) Prospect rankings are not the end game - fielding a talented big league team is. Whether Groome (whom 10 other teams besides the Brewers passed on - clearly they all can't be stupid?) or Garrett are ranked higher than Ray a year from now on Prospect List X is immaterial. I'm interested in what each of those players are doing 10 years from now. Ray has the talent to outperform both before even considering the high flameout rate of high school pitchers.

 

And I say both of those things as someone who would have preferred Garrett or Groome over Ray.

[QuevedosTongue]

The Miami folks think they got another Cliff Lee in Braxton Garrett. Boston thinks they outsmarted everyone and got the best player in the draft in Groome. Every team in the league can tell you that pitchers with 6.00 eras and zero idea where the ball is going in the lower Minor's will be their next ace. There is no basis to conclude the Brewers are on any track of serious success based on what we have now under our failed logic and process. If the Brewers don't reverse course and fix it in the next 2-3 drafts, we may stay down. See 1993-2005.

 

Neither Garrett, Groome, or Ray has appeared in a single professional game, yet you are ready to anoint 2 of them as top of rotation potential Hall of Famers and the third is already a spectacular bust. Seriously?

 

I get that they didn't take the guy you wanted. Okay, so Ray wasn't number 1 on your draft board. But he was on others. I guess I don't understand why you are so certain he's going to be terrible when he was rated very high on draft boards by virtually everyone who had a draft board out there.

 

All of these players have a long way to go before any of this matters and there are a lot of potential pitfalls for any draftee. I just don't understand how you can be so certain that, seemingly, Ray is crap and every other player the Brewers could have taken is going to be a multiple All-Star.

[Austin Tatious]

To Tongue, spare me the lecture, kid. You're putting a ton of words in my mouth that were never uttered. That's my full response because I will not entertain strawman arguments. They are lazy, amateurish and lack any kind of intellectual depth. Until you discuss the actual points I am making accurately, figure out your own issues before you start lecturing people. Full stop.

 

Look guys, if you don't like my comments, all of which are valid opinions, then counter them intelligently without childish petulance, and I will respect you. I am here to discuss counter opinions brought with facts, data, past experiences, and one to one points and counter-points, etc. If you know my posting history, I am generally fairly positive. But, I like reasonable and fair discussion with scrutiny of the organization where warranted.

 

There was a poster who wanted me suspended because he didn't like criticisms. I'd have to look up who it was, but I am probably better off not remembering so as not to associate any individual poster, and not escalate this further. i am not here to ridicule anyone. Have your opinion, and I will have mine. I don't get the need to throw a temper tantrum every time a poster questions something.

[Austin Tatious]

The young pitchers will vault high in the prospect rankings, higher than our guys.

Two points:

 

1) That's unknowable currently.

 

2) Prospect rankings are not the end game - fielding a talented big league team is. Whether Groome (whom 10 other teams besides the Brewers passed on - clearly they all can't be stupid?) or Garrett are ranked higher than Ray a year from now on Prospect List X is immaterial. I'm interested in what each of those players are doing 10 years from now. Ray has the talent to outperform both before even considering the high flameout rate of high school pitchers.

 

And I say both of those things as someone who would have preferred Garrett or Groome over Ray.

 

 

This is a fair point. I am telling you what other teams are saying about the guys they drafted based on their media.

[paul253]

I as much as anyone have been critical of the Brewers Drafting the past few years but even I have to admit they've been drafting more for upside lately. Coulter was an upside pick. So was Clark, who I believe many considered to be the best prep hitter in the draft. Harrison and Gatewood were definitely upside picks, as was Devin Williams. We've also made the safer picks too, the Jungmanns and Bradley's, the Rays. Counting the first two picks in our last five drafts we've picked 3 college position players, 4 high school position players 2 HS pitchers and one college pitcher. Go back one more year you have two more college pitchers. That seems fairly balanced to me with a lot of high ceiling low floor picks in there (Williams, Gatewood, Medeiros, Clark, Coulter). I'm not sure what policy you're rooting for Austin. I think the policy is fine. I think maybe the execution needs to improve.

 

Personally, this past draft I wanted Groome or Garrett, mainly because I wanted a pitcher. Ray is a good player whom almost all the scouts like. It's not a bad pick. In 2014 I wanted Grant Holmes. At the time our system was rather poor though and needed depth. Drafting Medeiros allowed us to draft Gatewood and Harrison, two picks I believe you said you liked. But if we took Holmes we would have missed out on one, if not both of them. Williams in 2013 was considered first round talent. Coulter hasn't worked out but there's still time. So again, I think our strategy or policy itself is fine. We just need to start hitting on more of them.

 

That said, opportunities to get TOR pitchers are rare. We can't pass on opportunities to get a Groome or a Garrett too often.

[Austin Tatious]

Fair enough, Paul. Great response. We all want the same thing, which is a contender. That's what Stearns is trying to do. Let's hope we get there.

 

I like the players with upside and ceiling that we've taken outside the top 20. I am pulling for all of these guys.

[brewcrewdue80]

Austin in regard to your feelings of kodi/monte/&jacob:

 

None of those picks were picks that had a quick ascend to the majors. Kodi can throw a slider that's like 10-8 with 8 being the 2nd clock next to the first. And then run a fastball tight at the corner of theplate. The ability is outstanding and the upside is Chris sale. Good pick but to control his talent will take time.

 

Monte Harrison was a future nebraska qb? Ahead of him had he refused to sign. He was splitting sports with his talent&athleticism. Changing gears to just baseball meant: time. He hit 5hrs in 1 week just a short bit ago. What he brings in athletic ability and harnesses to baseball could be special.

 

Jacob gatewood gave Milw a future power bat who just happens to k way to much and needs: time. To better pitch recognition, tie the power into games.

 

These guys will all be just 20 this season. Younger than Ray. They have improved whether you're not seeing it on their overall season stats. Take a week and the talent numbers that show is something. Now they gotta get to 2weeks a month. 3weeks a month and we have something. Any of the 3 put 4weeks in a month together and they're perennial all stars.

 

So think of them as gaining a day every month to reach 3week got something with them. Truth is, once they figure something out they will leap to a whole other level. Harrison reads as maybe hit that and is leaping up compared to his 1st months Harrison.

[QuevedosTongue]

To Tongue, spare me the lecture, kid. You're putting a ton of words in my mouth that were never uttered. That's my full response because I will not entertain strawman arguments. They are lazy, amateurish and lack any kind of intellectual depth. Until you discuss the actual points I am making accurately, figure out your own issues before you start lecturing people. Full stop.

 

Look guys, if you don't like my comments, all of which are valid opinions, then counter them intelligently without childish petulance, and I will respect you. I am here to discuss counter opinions brought with facts, data, past experiences, and one to one points and counter-points, etc. If you know my posting history, I am generally fairly positive. But, I like reasonable and fair discussion with scrutiny of the organization where warranted.

 

There was a poster who wanted me suspended because he didn't like criticisms. I'd have to look up who it was, but I am probably better off not remembering so as not to associate any individual poster, and not escalate this further. i am not here to ridicule anyone. Have your opinion, and I will have mine. I don't get the need to throw a temper tantrum every time a poster questions something.

 

I was asking a serious question. You said that Groom and Garrett will be great and we won't be able to trade for them. You said Ray is another weak-armed LF (a comparison to Khris Davis, Clark). So you didn't say he'll be a colossal bust ( I overdid it there) but you clearly think the 2 pitchers will be significantly better than Ray. So why? Again, he was very highly rated by virtually everyone, why are you so down on him versus these other two?

 

And if you're interested in serious discussion, don't refer to people as 'kid' or suggest anyone is lazy, amateurish, or any of the other condescending comments you've made.

[MrTPlush]

So umm where have we been drafting fringy weak armed LFers? In the first round we drafted Trent Clark last year and Victor Roache back in 2012. They are also the only OFers we have drafted in the last decade first round. Clark could still stick in center and Ray definitely has at least an average arm and can at least play the corners.

 

I'm sorry but I don't see where we are constantly drafting weak armed LFers.