The 2017 MLB Draft Thread (#9 Pick + #34 & #46)

[Austin Tatious]

Some of these mocks are brutal. All the top guys I have hope for look to be gone by 9. Kyle Wright, Gore, Bukauskus. Even Pavin Smith, who I sort of had as my fall back position, is mocked ahead of us.

 

It doesn't look like a great draft to me. Lots of question marks. I think if the board fell along the lines of these mocks, I'd give a long look to Shane Baz. He's got a good arm at 90-95 with multiple secondary offerings that look good. His issue is command. If he can develop it, he could be a solid 2. Baz looks projectable to me, although there is obviously risk that he never harnesses the control.

 

Rogers hasn't developed enough secondary stuff.

 

So, you have a draft with a lot of question marks, and the Brewers may just be out of reach of the guys with less question marks.

[ZBTMP]

 

Well sucks to be those guys unless you got Taillon or Allard who is a future All Star.

 

Kershaw, Bumgarner. Look they are there. If we are going to fail yearly with the 1st round picks, may as well have it be the Raw, Highest upside HS arm. Because just hitting on one sets you up as a Franchise for 7 strong years. Hit on two and youre WS contenders so long as you dont trade them away.

Its the fear of picking the worst HS pitcher atop the draft, that they slide to the late mid teens where arms like Kershaw and Bumgarner get picked. Jason Groome last year, will turn out the best HS pitcher of draft class since he dropped, watch.

How many more decades do we sit here wishing we had pitching, a TOR Starter? Ben Sheets since I began watching Brewers Baseball is it.

2 aces doesn’t make us a perennial World Series contender. If it did, the White Sox would have been habitually terrible with Sale and Quintana. You can argue that Quintana isn’t an “Ace” but 15 fWAR in 3 seasons cannot be far off.

Prep arms aren’t the only way to get upside. You can cite Bumgarner and Kershaw as prep arms, but its not like a college arm couldn’t have the same upside. Mad Max and Sale were available at 1-9. Had we just drafted Stetson University pitchers after round 3 we could have had deGrom and Kluber…

I am fine with taking prep arms if it is at the top of the board, I just don’t want to take Dylan Covey over Christian Yelich or Kodi Medeiros over Trea Turner (Even if Kodi has re-established dominance over left handed hitting), because we are looking for something that isn’t there.

Its possible Groome is the best player in that draft, but if you let me redo that pick, I’m taking Puk at this point.

[LouisEly]

There really isn't any difference between college and HS when it comes to the top 10. Where you might find a HS arm is a little later in the draft, but you also have your DeGrom's/Kluber's/Keuchel's/DeLeon's/Woodruff's later in the draft too.

 

Looking at that list above, I'd take the next Ben Sheets over probably any of them with perhaps the exception of Allard.

[Eye Black]

As always, I have really enjoyed following this thread. Thanks to everyone who contributes and a special thanks to colbyjack for entertaining our questions and providing some really great insight into this year's draft prospects.

 

For those who follow the mock drafts, Taylor Blake Ward of Scout released his MLB Mock Draft 2.0.

 

One note in that mock draft (under the D'backs section) made me realize that Ray Montgomery drafted J.B. Bukauskas back in 2014. I don't think he is likely to fall to #9, but if the opportunity presented itself he would be tough to pass on.

[JosephC]

I'm hoping for Alex Faedo. If not for the knee injuries there is a pretty good chance he would be in the top 3 or 4 picks. Had some rough stretches early in the season but that could be attributed to him getting his legs back under him after the surgery. From what I can tell it doesn't look like the knees will be a long-term issue. He was excellent down the stretch. Last four games he threw 28 innings, allowed 4 runs and struck out 33. Could be a rare opportunity to get a player who really should be a top 5 pick at #9.

 

Only two bats I would be interested in are Royce Lewis and maybe Pavin Smith depending on what pitchers are available. Lewis is so attractive I don't think there is any way I could pass on him if he did slip to #9 which is unlikely. I'd have to weigh Smith against whatever other pitchers are available, but there is a chance I might take him.

 

Very likely would pass on Adell and Kendall at #9. I wouldn't avoid outfielders because of organizational depth, but I just think their floors are low enough where I'd gamble on a pitcher instead of taking a very low floor/very high ceiling type bat.

 

The Brewers should be lighting up phone lines right now, because the Taylor Blake Ward (Scout) mock that Eye Black linked above is the worst-case scenario as it has Wright, Smith, Bukauskas and Faedo all off the board at #9. If that happens the best strategy might be to have a below-slot option lined up at #9 and have some "above slot" high schoolers lined up later. Slot amount at #9 is 4.57 million. RHP-Griffin Canning/UCLA is interesting and figures to go somewhere around #20 and probably is figuring to get a bonus of 3.2 to 3.0 million. He'd be a pretty reasonable target to work out a deal where the Brewers take him at #9, pay him about 3.70 million which leaves them with 870k of additional funds to spend later in the draft. Definitely not my first choice, would much rather take Wright, Smith, Bukauskas, Faedo and pay them the slot but if circumstances dictate...below-slot player at #9 could be the best strategy.

[Oxy]

I've been trying to follow the MLB draft for a few years now--the first one I really paid attention to was the Jungmann/Bradley draft. I don't think I will ever fully understand the "slot" system. I guess that is the point. The MLBPA is the strongest and oldest union, thus many lawyers have been involved for many years--thus any chance of a common sense understanding of the system has long ago been lost... c'est la vie.

 

As far as I understand it (ha!) the age and options for the upcoming year for a drafted player gives them leverage to sign or not sign? Thus the term "senior sign?" As a college player with no eligibility left has almost no options/leverage to not sign? Occasionally, HS guys will only sign for LOTS of dough or else just go to college? What about the in between? How many college soph/jrs get drafted, then holdout and don't sign in order to return to school the next year? They are then eligible for the draft the next year? But HS guys have to go to college for 3 years if they refuse to sign?

[LouisEly]

For those who follow the mock drafts, Taylor Blake Ward of Scout released his MLB Mock Draft 2.0.

 

One note in that mock draft (under the D'backs section) made me realize that Ray Montgomery drafted J.B. Bukauskas back in 2014. I don't think he is likely to fall to #9, but if the opportunity presented itself he would be tough to pass on.

I might puke if they go Adell over Baz, Haseley, and Peterson. That would be the worst case scenario.

 

I do not expect Lewis, Gore, or Bukauskas to be there at #9, and won't be surprised if Smith isn't there, but of the four I mentioned above Adell is #4 by a long margin. Actually, he's #5 behind those three and Hall.

[MilwaukeeBeers]

A lot of you guys clamoring for a pitcher don't realize the potential for our pitching prospects to progress into the #3's, #2's, and aces of the world. Degrom for example was written off as nothing but a back of the rotation guy, and now he's one of the best RHPs in ball. It's not unreasonable to say a couple years from now our farm will be loaded with arms. Some might already be hiding.

[JosephC]

I've been trying to follow the MLB draft for a few years now--the first one I really paid attention to was the Jungmann/Bradley draft. I don't think I will ever fully understand the "slot" system. I guess that is the point. The MLBPA is the strongest and oldest union, thus many lawyers have been involved for many years--thus any chance of a common sense understanding of the system has long ago been lost... c'est la vie.

 

As far as I understand it (ha!) the age and options for the upcoming year for a drafted player gives them leverage to sign or not sign? Thus the term "senior sign?" As a college player with no eligibility left has almost no options/leverage to not sign? Occasionally, HS guys will only sign for LOTS of dough or else just go to college? What about the in between? How many college soph/jrs get drafted, then holdout and don't sign in order to return to school the next year? They are then eligible for the draft the next year? But HS guys have to go to college for 3 years if they refuse to sign?

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/draftday/rules.jsp

 

Basic rule of thumb is that if an 18 year old high school player does not sign and he enrolls in a 4 year university, then he cannot be drafted until the completion of his junior year. If an 18 year old high school player does not sign and enrolls in a junior college, then that player is eligible to be drafted in the following year's draft.

 

Teams are in contact with players/agents and for the most part know what the expectations of a player are. For example, a player might say he wants to be a first rounder but will attend a 4-year university if selected lower. Milwaukee might have an interest in that player but still have other players at #9 and #34 that they prefer. The Brewers could contact this player and say that they will take him at #46 (slot value = $1.494 million), but will pay him a 2.0 million bonus which is equivalent to the #33 slot value (supplemental first round). So maybe that particular player would agree to that. This year the Brewer's bonus pool is $10,447,700. The total signing bonuses for all the Brewer picks in the first 10 rounds (10 "regular" picks plus the supplemental pick between rounds 1 and 2) plus any picks in rounds 11-40 that who are given a bonus greater than $125,000 count against the $10,447,700 total. So with the example above, the Brewers have paid the #46 pick approximately 500k over his slot value, meaning they would have to find a way to pay the rest of the group 500k less or else pay a penalty. They can go up to 5% over the assigned amount of the bonus pool and only have to pay a financial penalty (75% tax on the overage). If they exceed going over 5% of the assigned amount of the bonus pool they also have to surrender a future first round pick which IMO makes the 5% overage the "hard cap" with which they have to work. So there is a lot of work leading up to the draft with teams figuring out what players they will be able to sign and which players they won't be able to sign in certain areas of the draft.

 

And there are times where teams just take a complete flyer on a player who they have no chance to sign. Last year Milwaukee took a high school pitcher named Jared Horn in the 20th round. On many top prospect lists he was graded in the 30-40 overall area but had stated he wanted 3 million to sign (top 13 overall pick if sticking with slot values) or else he was attending Cal. The Brewers still took him in round 20 and as expected by everyone he did not sign and went to Cal. Teams are protected with the early picks, if the Brewers don't sign one of their picks in the first three rounds they would get a compensatory pick in next year's draft 1 slot lower than the pick was this year (so if they don't sign the player they take at #46, they would automatically be assigned pick #47 in next year's draft). I'm pretty sure that applies through the first three rounds, although I cannot locate any documentation of that.

[homer]

After reading SI's profile of Hunter Greene I will definitely be following his career. Impossible not to root for him....really great kid.

[MrTPlush]

A lot of you guys clamoring for a pitcher don't realize the potential for our pitching prospects to progress into the #3's, #2's, and aces of the world. Degrom for example was written off as nothing but a back of the rotation guy, and now he's one of the best RHPs in ball. It's not unreasonable to say a couple years from now our farm will be loaded with arms. Some might already be hiding.

 

Exactly something is hiding somewhere. Usually for us it is a hitter(Davis/Lucroy), but maybe one of our pitchers is a Quintana type pitcher. Stearns isn't going to draft by need which is pretty smart in MLB drafts. Doesn't take long for a strength to turn into a black hole. Jean Segura was suppose to be our SS of the future and flopped here. Orlando Arcia was suppose to be that guy, but so far has been terrible with the bat. Jonathan Villar has been pretty bad himself too. We are supposably so deep in the middle infield yet have one of the worst duos up the middle in baseball.

[brewcrewdue80]

Currently that stands as 0. No guarantee any of these Pitchers will ever reach Quintana level. Look at whats going on with the Mets. They had 4 legits on their roster the World Series appearance. Now its 1 with 1 struggling and 2 injured. You cant have enough pitching. And certainly that applies to deadline deals. With monster trading to acquire the pitching over a batter. See us with CC Sabathia vs Geraldo Parra. And with how well Stearns and his group have been doing in trades, Id love that ability if needed down the road.

[Madhawk23]

For those who follow the mock drafts, Taylor Blake Ward of Scout released his MLB Mock Draft 2.0.

 

One note in that mock draft (under the D'backs section) made me realize that Ray Montgomery drafted J.B. Bukauskas back in 2014. I don't think he is likely to fall to #9, but if the opportunity presented itself he would be tough to pass on.

I might puke if they go Adell over Baz, Haseley, and Peterson. That would be the worst case scenario.

 

I do not expect Lewis, Gore, or Bukauskas to be there at #9, and won't be surprised if Smith isn't there, but of the four I mentioned above Adell is #4 by a long margin. Actually, he's #5 behind those three and Hall.

 

Everything I read about Adell has him compared to Melvin Upton and Byron Buxton. Why in the world would you ever want to draft a kid that compares to those two guys? Yes, I'm sure the tools may be off the charts, but what good is that if you can barely hit your weight? Personally, I want nothing to do with Adell or Kendall in this draft. I know you want to draft the BPA, but I just don't want another toolsy OF with our first pick.

[Oxy]

Exactly something is hiding somewhere. Usually for us it is a hitter(Davis/Lucroy), but maybe one of our pitchers is a Quintana type pitcher.

 

"Usually?" I'm struggling to come up with ONE pitcher who came through the system in the last 30 years and exceeded his projected ceiling as a prospect. It's difficult to even find guys who've MATCHED expectations. Sheets and Gallardo hit their reasonable ceilings. Then...

[paul253]

A lot of you guys clamoring for a pitcher don't realize the potential for our pitching prospects to progress into the #3's, #2's, and aces of the world. Degrom for example was written off as nothing but a back of the rotation guy, and now he's one of the best RHPs in ball. It's not unreasonable to say a couple years from now our farm will be loaded with arms. Some might already be hiding

 

It's not unreasonable to say in a few years our farm will be loaded with arms. But given that that hasn't happened in at least two decades I'd say it is unlikely. It's also not unreasonable to say that everyone we are counting on to become our 2s and 3s will be duds or simply not as good as we think they'll be. Peralta and Nelson were two our our best pitching prospects in years and they are hardly guys we can build our franchise around. Thornburg was our top overall prospect once putting up great minor league numbers and he never became a 2 or 3 (mostly becuase they never even gave him a chance to) So now we're just supposed to assume Hader, Lopez, and Woodruff are all going to break the mold at the same time? I sure hope so but I have my doubts. We only have so many opportunities to obtain pitchers with 1 or 2 upside. I realize people can turn it on late and become studs when nobody expected them to but I'd personally prefer to get the guy who profiles as one as opposed to the guy who could figure it out later.

[MrTPlush]

If you are going to use the past as a way to make conclusions about the future then we should just continue to ignore pitching. If it never works why even waste the pick? Hasn't worked the last 20 years.

[young guns]

Exactly something is hiding somewhere. Usually for us it is a hitter(Davis/Lucroy), but maybe one of our pitchers is a Quintana type pitcher.

 

"Usually?" I'm struggling to come up with ONE pitcher who came through the system in the last 30 years and exceeded his projected ceiling as a prospect. It's difficult to even find guys who've MATCHED expectations. Sheets and Gallardo hit their reasonable ceilings. Then...

Fiers?

[JosephC]

Everything I read about Adell has him compared to Melvin Upton and Byron Buxton. Why in the world would you ever want to draft a kid that compares to those two guys? Yes, I'm sure the tools may be off the charts, but what good is that if you can barely hit your weight? Personally, I want nothing to do with Adell or Kendall in this draft. I know you want to draft the BPA, but I just don't want another toolsy OF with our first pick.

 

I agree on this. If it comes down to gambling on a low-floor, high-ceiling bat then I would rather take a pitcher. I would have no problem taking a bat if the right player was there. If Royce Lewis somehow slips to #9 then he is very likely a no-brainer selection. If Wright/Bukauska/Faedo are all gone at #9 then Pavin Smith would likely be my favorite. Once you get past those players, then there is a big group that includes guys like Adell and Kendall and a whole bunch of pitchers and in that case everything is about equal and under that scenario I'd rather go pitching.

[paul253]

If you are going to use the past as a way to make conclusions about the future then we should just continue to ignore pitching. If it never works why even waste the pick? Hasn't worked the last 20 years

 

I'm not making conclusions about the future. I'm just saying we haven't been loaded with arms for as long as I've been following the minor league system. And a lot of the guys we've all thought would turn into decent starters have not. So to say we don't need to focus on pitching because we have guys that might turn into 2s or 3s is fine, but history suggests it's not likely to happen. So when we have the chance to acquire a guy who profiles as a top of rotation guy I don't think we should pass on the chance. We're not the Cubs. Those opportunities are few and far between. Unfortunately the economics of baseball are such that only a select few teams can sign established aces so short of giving up the farm the only other chance to acquire one is to draft him.

 

While I respect the BPA philosophy I think it would be foolish to draft yet another outfielder in the first round when the system is flush with outfielders. If the far and away BPA is an outfielder then fine. Take him. But I have a hard time believing Kendall or Adell or whoever else is going to be far and away better than the best non-outfielder.

 

To your point earlier it's true that just because we are deep at a certain position doesn't mean they'll all turn out. But with the depth we have in the outfield we have so many options to replace guys that we can afford to take a year off and look elsewhere. If Santana or Braun gets hurt we can call up Brinson. If Brinson sucks we can go to Cordell. If Cordell sucks we can go to Phillips. If Phillips sucks we still have our last two first rounders to fall back on. Meanwhile when we needed a starter earlier this season we went with.......Tommy Millone. It's a lack of depth that causes panic moves like signing Lohse, Suppan and Garza.

 

And finally let's say everything works out perfectly. Hader Woodruff Ortiz and Lopez all hit their ceilings and more lower level guys step up too. That's the best problem we can possibly have. We can use them as trade bait to get an established ace and we probably wouldn't have to give up as much as if we were trying to create a package consisting of outfielders. A top pitching prospect has more value then a top positional prospect precisely because it is so much more difficult to get the pitcher.

 

I get the argument then we shouldn't focus on pitching. I really do. But I just don't see how an organization like Milwaukee can afford to pass on pitching with two consecutive top nine picks. If it's close, go pitching.

[LouisEly]

Exactly something is hiding somewhere. Usually for us it is a hitter(Davis/Lucroy), but maybe one of our pitchers is a Quintana type pitcher.

 

"Usually?" I'm struggling to come up with ONE pitcher who came through the system in the last 30 years and exceeded his projected ceiling as a prospect. It's difficult to even find guys who've MATCHED expectations. Sheets and Gallardo hit their reasonable ceilings. Then...

I'd say that Been Sheets and Mike Fiers exceeded their ceilings.

 

Beyond that... yeah, pretty barren.

[DHonks]

at this point I would say Jimmy Nelson has exceeded his ceiling when drafted. He wasn't good in the low minors, and didn't profile as a 2-3 pitcher, but he's really shown progress.

 

I still prefer taking hitters early then loading up with pitching, but then again I'd hate to miss on another Ben Sheets. God he was so fun to watch once he scrapped the 2-seamer

[Eye Black]

John Sickels released his first Mock Draft at Minor League Ball.

 

Alex Faedo and Pavin Smith are still on the board when the Brewers pick in this mock which is nice to see, but I agree with those that have mentioned the tier drop off we are often seeing after the first 8 picks in these mocks.

 

If it plays out like some of these mocks are suggesting I've come around to the idea of selecting LHP David Peterson and hopefully saving a few dollars to allocate towards other selections.

[reillymcshane]

Exactly something is hiding somewhere. Usually for us it is a hitter(Davis/Lucroy), but maybe one of our pitchers is a Quintana type pitcher.

 

"Usually?" I'm struggling to come up with ONE pitcher who came through the system in the last 30 years and exceeded his projected ceiling as a prospect. It's difficult to even find guys who've MATCHED expectations. Sheets and Gallardo hit their reasonable ceilings. Then...

I'd say that Been Sheets and Mike Fiers exceeded their ceilings.

 

Beyond that... yeah, pretty barren.

Scott Karl had a few good years as well.

[And That]

Baseball America's Mock Draft 3.0 is out.

 

I am a big fan of the pick at #9, and an interesting pick at #34. He's someone who was until not too long ago in the mix as a top 15 selection.

[Jose Cardenal1]

Corbin Martin at 34 would be great. Not sold on Beck (or Adell) at 9. Would love Pavin Smith but that looks unlikely. Count me in the Alex Faedo at 9 camp.