The 2017 MLB Draft Thread (#9 Pick + #34 & #46)

[3and2Fastball]

Great, watching the video and knowing Kendall is an OF, he'll be the Brewers pick.

 

that is what I'm scared of

[And That]

MLB Pipeline has refreshed its draft top 50 into a top 100.

 

They have Austin Beck at #9. I don't know if he slips that far, but if he's there at 9, right now I think he'd be in heavy consideration to be the pick.

[ZBTMP]

Thanks Colby for the information on Smith. It seems a reasonable probability he is at least 3 win 1st basemen. While the high school left handers and Baz are probably far less certain. But WAR is only relative to a “replacement” player not who you are actually replacing. We only need (1) 1st basemen. We need 5 starting pitchers.

Jaren Kendall seems to match the profile of outfielders with 2 first names. Yup that’s the best insight I can provide on that one.

I had crossed Beck off as a possibility. Competition aside, I gotta believe someone is going to fall for the tools prior to us.

Any reasonable below slots guys at 9 that would allow us to be more aggressive at 34 and 46?

[3and2Fastball]

I like Jordan Adell a lot more than Austin Beck. I think the comparisons I've read of Beck to Mike Trout are highly questionable. Beck could end up being a good player, but if you are drafting on the tools you go Adell. Faster, more explosive, better arm

[And That]

New aggregate ranking, updated with MLB Pipeline's new list:

 

1. Hunter Greene, HS, RHP/SS

2. Brendan McKay, 4yr, LHP/1B/OF

3. Jeren Kendall, 4yr, OF

4. Royce Lewis, HS, OF

5. JB Bukauskas, 4yr, RHP

6. Austin Beck, HS, OF

7. Kyle Wright, 4yr, RHP

8. Alex Faedo, 4yr, RHP

9. Pavin Smith, 4yr, 1B

10. DL Hall, HS, LHP

11. MacKenzie Gore, HS, LHP

12. Nick Pratto, HS, 1B/LHP

13. Seth Romero, 4yr, LHP

14. Jo Adell, HS, OF

15. Taner Houck, 4yr, RHP

16. Alex Lange, 4yr, RHP

17. Keston Hiura, 4yr, 2B/OF

18. Adam Haseley, 4yr, OF

19. Shane Baz, HS, RHP

20. Griffin Canning, 4yr, RHP

21. Hans Crouse, HS, RHP

22. Wil Crowe, 4yr, RHP

23. Logan Warmoth, 4yr, SS

24. Brendon Little, JC, RHP

25. Clarke Schmidt, 4yr, RHP

26. Jake Burger, 4yr, 3B

27. Trevor Rogers, HS, LHP

28. Nick Allen, HS, SS

29. Jacob Heatherly, HS, LHP

30. Quentin Holmes, HS, OF

 

At the Brewers slots, I currently have:

9. Pavin Smith, 4yr, 1B

34. David Peterson, 4yr, LHP

46. Riley Adams, 4yr, C

84. Bryce Bonnin, HS, RHP/SS

114. Riley Ottesen, 4yr (So.), RHP

[3and2Fastball]

For what it's worth, a friend of mine has a kid who goes to the same high school as Austin Beck so he's seen Beck play a lot. Here is what he said about Beck: "the comparisons to Trout aren't fair. Austin is not anywhere close to as strong as Trout was in high school and it is doubtful he'll ever be that strong. He is a legit Top 10/Top 15 prospect though. Power/Speed combination, all out hustle, great kid, great family, great teammate. He can stick in center field and projects as a guy who could hit 25 HR's and steal 25 bases in MLB"

[And That]

BA has refreshed their top 100 draft prospect list into a top 200 draft prospect list.

 

Meanwhile, MLB Pipeline has a new mock draft of the top 15 picks. Their mock draft will be updated for the full first round next week, and will be updated every week until the draft.

[And That]

Chris Crawford has refreshed his top 125 prospect list as well.

[And That]

New aggregate ranking, updated with Baseball America and Chris Crawford's new lists:

 

1. Hunter Greene, HS, RHP/SS

2. Brendan McKay, 4yr, LHP/1B/OF

3. Royce Lewis, HS, OF

4. Kyle Wright, 4yr, RHP

5. JB Bukauskas, 4yr, RHP

6. MacKenzie Gore, HS, LHP

7. Jeren Kendall, 4yr, OF

8. Austin Beck, HS, OF

9. Pavin Smith, 4yr, 1B

10. Alex Faedo, 4yr, RHP

11. DL Hall, HS, LHP

12. Nick Pratto, HS, 1B/LHP

13. Jo Adell, HS, OF

14. Adam Haseley, 4yr, OF

15. Shane Baz, HS, RHP

16. Seth Romero, 4yr, LHP

17. Griffin Canning, 4yr, RHP

18. Taner Houck, 4yr, RHP

19. Keston Hiura, 4yr, 2B/OF

20. David Peterson, 4yr, LHP

21. Trevor Rogers, HS, LHP

22. Sam Carlson, HS, RHP

23. Hans Crouse, HS, RHP

24. Jake Burger, 4yr, 3B

25. Logan Warmoth, 4yr, SS

26. Alex Lange, 4yr, RHP

27. Brendon Little, JC, RHP

28. Heliot Ramos, HS, OF

29. Nate Pearson, JC, RHP

30. Nick Allen, HS, SS

 

At the Brewers slots for the first five round, I currently have:

9. Pavin Smith, 4yr, 1B

34. Wil Crowe, 4yr, RHP

46. Cal Mitchell, HS, OF

84. Morgan Cooper, 4yr, RHP

114. Ricky Tyler Thomas, 4yr, LHP

144. Jayson Gonzalez, HS, 3B

[MrTPlush]

Alex Faedo is a guy I would likely take if he was available. He has really good pitches, can control them, and is very much close to a MLB ready guy. I think he has ace potential(maybe not flashy Keyshaw/Sale ace potential) and can help us out here pretty darn soon. Could give us that top of the rotation leader we need as Hader is making me pretty confident he isn't that guy.

[ZBTMP]

I was hoping for Romero or JB Bukauskas, but Im doubting the Brewers are taking Romero at 9 after reading this article.

One especially embarrassing incident occurred early in the season when Romero was captured in a photograph holding a bong while in full uniform.

With Boras as his agent, maybe bonus demands make him fall to 34? Realistically some large market team who can afford to whiff on a pick will probably pop for him in the 20-30 range I'm guessing.

[colbyjack]

Toby, the aggregate rankings you're doing this spring are fun to look at, especially lined up for the Brewers picks. If they landed those six players Brewers fans should be pretty happy.

 

And I know you're a big fan of the LHPs available this year and I'm going to make my pitch for two that I don't think have been talked about much: Oregon State's Luke Heimlich and Oregon's David Peterson.

 

Heimlich can absolutely deal. A little on the smaller side but he's competitive with great command of 4 pitches. His fastball is mostly 90-93, but he spots it extremely well and the rest of his repertoire is thrown off of his fastball, which I really like (the fastball is still the most effective pitch in all of baseball). He's a shorter version of Cliff Lee and just doesn't get beat or beat himself. He's not ranked super high right now but I think that will change as I just can't see him being drafted where some people, including Perfect Game, currently has him ranked.

 

Peterson also is a 4-pitch lefty from a college in Oregon. However, he's much more physical. He also doesn't throw super hard (90-94) and mixes and matches extremely well with four legitimate solid pitches. I personally think either player could be justified at #9 and both, especially Heimlich, are candidates to move quickly through the minors, even though neither would likely throw much this summer after signing given their current workloads.

 

In fact, if I were the Brewers I would target Heimlich, hope to sign him quickly for under slot and then use the extra money with one of their next picks and target a player that falls a little further than expected. That could be Seth Romero, who, as ZBTMP pointed out, has had some off-field issues recently (that story is legit by the way), or Stanford's Tristan Beck, who the Brewers drafted out of high school and has missed all of this year with an injury but some have speculated that he may be healthy right now but is intentionally not returning to the mound to save his arm.

[Austin Tatious]

Alex Faedo is a guy I would likely take if he was available. He has really good pitches, can control them, and is very much close to a MLB ready guy. I think he has ace potential(maybe not flashy Keyshaw/Sale ace potential) and can help us out here pretty darn soon. Could give us that top of the rotation leader we need as Hader is making me pretty confident he isn't that guy.

 

I like this. I agree. I'd love Bukauskus or Wright but any chance with those two are fading hard. Faedo has proven himself over time, and has considerable arm talent.

 

Speaking for myself, I'd look at the overall body of work over a multi-year basis, and how that projects. I'd look at higher level talent. With high picks, I'd be leveraging them for high level skills. 1st or 2nd starters in your rotation, middle of the order bats, or super toolsy middle infielders/outfielders. Faedo fits this. He's proven himself over time and he can be a 1 or 2 starter.

 

You look at all the mistakes the Milwaukee Brewers have made in the draft since 2005, and it really shows the fallacies and mistakes in the thought process. Right now, the Brewers have maybe 3-4 guys on their roster who were drafted by the franchise (Braun, Nelson, Barnes, maybe a couple of more, I don't have the roster in front of me). It hasn't been good enough.

 

Things I would not do with a top ten pick:

 

1. I would not use the underslot strategy on a top ten pick, particularly now when the Brewers already have tremendous depth in the farm system. If you go underslot in the top ten, you're doing the competition a favor, who will nicely swoop in and snag upper level talent while you try to snag someone later. What the Brewers need now is quality not quantity.

2. I would not get excited by a late workout etc.

3. I would not get excited by guy who puts up huge numbers right before the draft, but whose prior numbers were far less impressive.

4. The helium concept may make sense for high schoolers but not for college guys who have a longer body of work.

5. I would not take a safe pick over a big, but riskier talent.

 

Off the top of my head, I'd be interested in Faedo, DL Hall, MacKenzie Gore, and Pavin Smith at nine. I'm assuming Bukauskus or Kyle Wright will be gone. I'm hoping the new analytics draft guru can change the Brewers' process and finally get it on track.

 

I know my feelings on the draft upsets people, but instead of constantly railing on me, at least respect that I have brought a thought process to my posts. My heart has mostly sunk year after year with our top picks since Braun.

[LouisEly]

Right now I'm of the "anyone but Jeren Kendall" opinion. The Brewers already have that player profile - Corey Ray - and it isn't working out well in the pros. The power and speed combo is nice, but I don't want to spend another first round draft pick on a questionable hit tool (55 K in 215 PAs, barely hitting .300) trying to chase power and athleticism.

 

As far as bats I like Pavin Smith and Adam Haseley much more than Kendall. For reference, in almost exactly the same # of PAs Pavin Smith has struck out only 7 times compared to Kendall's 55. Haseley's had an even better year, slugging .680 with an OBP just below .500. I also like Keston Hiura; 40 BB in less than 200 PAs is pretty impressive. An OBP of .555 at any level is very impressive.

 

As for pitchers, I'm definitely on board with David Peterson. I did a double-take when I saw that in 81 IP he struck out 117 and walked 8. Yes, 8.

 

I think my preference would be Peterson, Smith, Hiura (if he can play 2B), Haseley, Heimlich, DL Hall in that order.

 

One guy I don't see in the top 200 is Aaron Arruda. He's had two really good years for Fresno State, and could be a nice pick in rounds 5-6 if they don't get Pavin Smith in the 1st.

[nate82]

Right now I'm of the "anyone but Jeren Kendall" opinion. The Brewers already have that player profile - Corey Ray - and it isn't working out well in the pros. The power and speed combo is nice, but I don't want to spend another first round draft pick on a questionable hit tool (55 K in 215 PAs, barely hitting .300) trying to chase power and athleticism.

 

As far as bats I like Pavin Smith and Adam Haseley much more than Kendall. For reference, in almost exactly the same # of PAs Pavin Smith has struck out only 7 times compared to Kendall's 55. Haseley's had an even better year, slugging .680 with an OBP just below .500. I also like Keston Hiura; 40 BB in less than 200 PAs is pretty impressive. An OBP of .555 at any level is very impressive.

 

As for pitchers, I'm definitely on board with David Peterson. I did a double-take when I saw that in 81 IP he struck out 117 and walked 8. Yes, 8.

 

I think my preference would be Peterson, Smith, Hiura (if he can play 2B), Haseley, Heimlich, DL Hall in that order.

 

One guy I don't see in the top 200 is Aaron Arruda. He's had two really good years for Fresno State, and could be a nice pick in rounds 5-6 if they don't get Pavin Smith in the 1st.

 

If the Brewers are going to draft a 1B I would rather them take Alex Toral than Pavin Smith or anyone else. The problem with Toral this year has been him not being aggressive enough as he has a great eye at the plate. Being more aggressive can be taught as he has all of the other tools to succeed in MLB. If Toral drops in this draft there are going to be a lot of teams wishing they picked him.

[Never Outhustled]

Alex Faedo is a guy I would likely take if he was available. He has really good pitches, can control them, and is very much close to a MLB ready guy. I think he has ace potential(maybe not flashy Keyshaw/Sale ace potential) and can help us out here pretty darn soon. Could give us that top of the rotation leader we need as Hader is making me pretty confident he isn't that guy.

 

I like this. I agree. I'd love Bukauskus or Wright but any chance with those two are fading hard. Faedo has proven himself over time, and has considerable arm talent.

 

 

I agree that there's a ton to like about Faedo, but the knee issues give me serious concerns. Double knee surgery at age 21? You could see how that effected him early in the season. Now how can we bank on the knee's not being a problem going forward if they're both already a problem at 21?

 

He's an outstanding pitcher, but he comes with even more injury risk than most pitchers.

[brewmann04]

I know the brewers will go with the BPA but I still like to see them take a chance with a Pitcher if he there @9

[Austin Tatious]

Alex Faedo is a guy I would likely take if he was available. He has really good pitches, can control them, and is very much close to a MLB ready guy. I think he has ace potential(maybe not flashy Keyshaw/Sale ace potential) and can help us out here pretty darn soon. Could give us that top of the rotation leader we need as Hader is making me pretty confident he isn't that guy.

 

I like this. I agree. I'd love Bukauskus or Wright but any chance with those two are fading hard. Faedo has proven himself over time, and has considerable arm talent.

 

 

I agree that there's a ton to like about Faedo, but the knee issues give me serious concerns. Double knee surgery at age 21? You could see how that effected him early in the season. Now how can we bank on the knee's not being a problem going forward if they're both already a problem at 21?

 

He's an outstanding pitcher, but he comes with even more injury risk than most pitchers.

 

Excellent point. We'd have to rely on the medical people there. I had thought he had gotten off to a slow start because of the knee but was moving past it. If he ends up medically ok, he could be a steal at nine because other teams may be spooked.

 

I have to say, I have gotten really fixated on Mackenzie Gore. He sounds terrific. But, MLB now lists him as number 5 overall. Callis and Mayo can get really high on high school arms with upside. Personally, I agree with them. We need to try to grab the elite talents. We can't afford not to. We aren't the Bosox, Yanks, etc, who can acquire upside talents different ways. When we have a shot at a big time guy, you can't skip it.

 

Toral, MJ Melendez, and Mark Vientos all look interesting to me at 34/46, especially if we can get a pitcher at 9. I'd have no problem toploading the money to try to get three-four high end prospects at the top and then getting a bunch of guys with less leverage the rest of the way. Last year we did that in a sense with the Browns, Burnes, Webb, et al, although we did a great job snagging McClanahan with extra cash.

[And That]

I am pessimistic that Gore will still be there at 9, at least as things stand now. If you're looking HS arm at 9, it's probably among the DL Hall/Shane Baz/Trevor Rogers/Sam Carlson/Hans Crouse group.

[Austin Tatious]

Here's a good article on Faedo. His knee surgeries were arthroscopic and considered reasonably minor, he has a plus slider, misses bats at a nice clip, and has a ceiling as a number two starter.

 

http://www.crawfishboxes.com/2017/5/5/15519150/2017-mlb-draft-profile-alex-faedo-rhp-florida-gators-astros-sec-baseball

[LouisEly]

The Baseball America top 200 list above has Toral at #182. Does he really have that much "helium" that he has valuted to a sandwich/2nd round pick?

[nate82]

The Baseball America top 200 list above has Toral at #182. Does he really have that much "helium" that he has valuted to a sandwich/2nd round pick?

 

Yes, he was ranked in the top 10 coming into this season. I think there was some talk of him going in the top 5. He has all of the makings to be an Adrian Gonzalez like player at the plate and defensively also. He also reminds me a little bit of Mark Teixeira.

 

The reason he has dropped out of the top 100 is because of the year he has been having. He has been too patient at the plate and not aggressive enough but that can be fixed far easier than other things. He has a great awareness of the strike zone I would put him above any college hitter in terms of his plate discipline. You won't see him swinging at pitches out of the zone all that much. He has plenty of power and his approach at the plate may limit his total HR in a season as he is not a pull happy hitter he will take the ball the other way.

[And That]

Perfect Game Mock Draft Version 1.0.

[Jose Cardenal1]

Love the Enslow pick at #34 in the PG Mock. Ben Sheets 2.0

[MilwaukeeBeers]

Can't say I'm a huge fan of the Jo Adell pick. If that's the board I'd much rather take a chance on Baz, Faedo, or Haseley who seems to have more upside than people give him credit for. If that is the board come June I'm curious to see who you all would choose at 9.